Monday, April 23, 2007

Things are going to get worse...

Table 2 in the Working Group I Summary for Policy Makers paints a grim, one could even say, Stern like picture. As in the third law of thermodynamics things are scheduled to get worse. This appears not to have been much commented on, but is worth paying attention to. Now the devil may care will ask, if we are not so certain about attribution of current climate change (see the second and third column) how can we be more certain about what will happen in the future :( see last column): The answer, of course, is that the changes are getting bigger as the forcing grow.

Phenomenon and direction of trend

Likelihood that trend occurred in late 20th century (typically post 1960)

Likelihood of a human contribution to observed trend

Likelihood of future trends based on projections for the 21st century using SRES scenarios

Warmer and fewer cold days and nights over most land areas

Very likely

Likely

Virtually certain

Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas

Very likely

Likely (nights)

Virtually certain

Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas

Likely

More likely than not

Very likely

Heavy precipitation events. Frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) increases over most areas

Likely

More likely than not

Very likely

Area affected by droughts increases

Likely in many regions since 1970s

More likely than not

Likely

Intense tropical cyclone activity increases

Likely in many regions since 1970s

More likely than not

Likely

Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis)

Likely

More likely than not

Likely


RTFR there are footnotes

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Just a little aside for those who are lazy and also like to play games (as all mice do)

If you do a "find and replace" and change "likely" to "UN-likely" in each case, you will have a very nice Global Warming Sceptic Bingo board.

Simon Donner said...

You could say the same about Table SPM1 from WGII, which summarizes the impacts on water, ecosystems, food, coasts and health. Even the published version, after the round of political edits, presents a clear picture of accelerating damages with higher degrees of warming.

Anonymous said...

To be sung to the tune of "Proud Mary" (of course)

Left a real job in the city
Now I'm Workin' for the EM-man ev'ry night and day
And I never lost a second of sleepin
Worryin' how much gas my hummer guzzled today

Chorus
Turbines keep on turnin'
Oil we'll keep on burnin'
Rollin', rollin', rollin' in
the Moola

Censored lots a posts at Climate Audit
Pumped a lot of insults on the blog, you can see
But I never saw the bad side of a Rabett
'Til he started tearing into MA&E

[chorus]

Rollin', rollin', rollin' in the Moola

If you come down to Climate Audit
Bet you gonna find some people who live
You don't have to worry 'cause you have no money
People at Exxon Mobil are happy to give

[chorus]

Rollin', rollin', rollin' in the Moola
Rollin', rollin', rollin' in the Moola
Rollin', rollin', rollin' in the Moola