Roger Revelle was right
Eli, because he RTFSPM, knows what the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report will say about the rise of global temperatures by 2100
Best estimates and likely ranges for global average surface air warming for six SRES emissions marker scenarios are given in this assessment and are shown in Table SPM.3. For example, the best estimate for the low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and the best estimate for the high scenario(A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).and also, because he RTFR, Eli knows what Roger Revelle thought in 1991, 1 to 3 C. Of course, that is not what was published by S. Fred, in the Cosmos Club Magazine
Assume what we regard as the most likely outcome: A modest average warming in the next century- well below the normal year-to year variation- and mostly at high latitudes and in the winter.We know from the copy of the infamous galleys that S. Fred brought with him to San Diego that S. Fred wanted to say less than 1 C and that is what he wrote. Less than 1 C might arguably be less than the normal year-to-year variation in global temperature, about 0.2 C, but 1 to 3 C is substantially greaterSo what did Roger Revelle say. We can look at the galley proofs. The comment on the side is Roger Revelle's, and it says "one to three"
How do we know that Roger Revelle wrote one to three. . . well Eli RTFD, S. Fred's deposition starting on page 157
BY MR. LANCASTER:Lancaster leads S. Fred on
Q: Turning back to this marked up manuscript, is now the galley proof, moving to the impact - the climate change section again, Galley: 003, can you explain to me the discussion in February of 1991 concerning the first sentence under this section? And explain the notations.
A: The printed text represents, of course, my final draft submitted to the Cosmos journal sometime in 1990. The handwritten note on the side is Roger Revelle's. And it reads either "one or three" or "one to three." I can't make it out. The discussion revolved around whether warming would be below the year-to-year variation. And I explained to Roger that my wording was much more certain, that if the average warming was below one degree, it would be below the normal m year-to-year variation, whereas his numbers would certainly not be. below the normal year-to-year variation. He didn't argue about the normal ill year-to-year variation, but he argued about the number. I was able to convince him. But we compromised finally by leaving out all references to any number. And note that his position was much more conservative than mine. He was willing to allow that a much larger temperature increase would still be below the normal year-to-year variation. And I told him that that is not so.
Q: Let me see if I have this right. The "one to three" indicates what?
A: The "one to three" indicates degrees Celsius.
MR. BLUTE: Just for the record, or that was Dr. Revelle's handwriting. He so testified. He was there. You're not a handwriting expert Let's move on. (Discussion off the record.)
BY MR. LANCASTER:
Q: Taking what you've told us to be the "one or three" or the "one to three" written by Roger, may I take the "RR" with the circle around it to indicate your expression that this was one of Roger's comments?
A: The "RR" is in my handwriting.
Q: Clearly. Would you agree that it doesn't matter whether Roger wrote "one or three" or "one to three," or whether you wrote "one to three" or "one or three," that in either case we're talking about Revelle's comment?'
A: Well, I would never have written this.
A: You know, this is my final draft. And so these comments were written on here by Revelle to discuss with me before we turned the draft - the final draft, the laser proofs back to the publisher.
BY MR. LANCASTER:and S. Fred claims that Revelle didn't know the magnitude of annual variation in global temperatures
Q: Well, just again on this point, under the "Impacts of Climate Change" in the first sentence, is it reasonable to understand the "one or three" or the "one to three" comment to indicate Dr. Revelle's belief that a modest average warming, a likely outcome, would be one to three degrees - in the range of one or three degrees Celsius, in that range?
A: That is one interpretation.
Q: Is that an incorrect interpretation? And if so, what is the correct interpretation? Why are those words written there?S. Fred does Alberto Gonzales imitations.
A: He was under the impression that this would still be below the normal year-to-year variation. And we discussed it and thought the best way to adjust it is to take out reference to any kind of number. So we deleted my sentence - my part of the sentence and we deleted his comment.
Q: Doesn't it show that he actually struck the word "well" in that third line of that paragraph?
A: It does show that, yes.
Q: Isn't it true in the published version that the word "well" isn't struck, that it exists in the document?
A: I'd have to check that.
MR. BLUTE: It speaks for itself.
Q: Would you agree, based on what you've just said, that it was understood between you and Dr. Revelle that the words "of less than one degree Celsius: well" would be struck from the document?
A: I don't recall that. But I'm quite willing, as it were, to strike the word "well." So if it does appear in the final version, it might well have been a mistake.
Q: Might it not have been a mistake if Dr. Revelle believed that one to three degrees was the most likely average warming in the next century, to have the words "below the normal year-to-year variation"?
A: Well, I don't think that's correct. That's just my point, that if you accept the fact that the average warming is below the normal year-to-year variation, which he did, then you cannot specify a warming of one to three degrees. It has to be less than one degree.
Q: Did you and Dr. Revelle discuss at that point what the number was for the normal year-to-year variation?
A: I think we tried to estimate it.
Q: What number did you come up with?
A: I told him it would have to be less than one degree. And he agreed but suggested that we also take out my wording, which is "of less than one degree." So we left it kind of open. This is quite usual when people collaborate and try to achieve a compromise.
Q: Is it possible that you got to this point and you understood Dr. Revelle's belief was that a likely warming would be one to three degrees indicated by this comment written in the margin, and that then you were able to move on by you striking the language "of less than one degree Celsius," your agreeing to strike that language?
A: Well, I certainly agreed to it, yes.
Q: Is it possible that at that time you didn't discuss and didn't estimate the normal year-to-year variation?And Our Dick Lindzen sulks across the stage:
MR. BLUTE: He just testified that he did.
MR. LANCASTER: Yeah, I just want to know if it's possible that he didn't.
A: I think we did.
Q: You remember that clearly?
A: Yes, I think I said to him that a three-degree increase would certainly stick out about the normal year-to-year variation. And he accepted that.
Q: If Dr. Revelle's closest colleagues believe that Roger Revelle - Roger Revelle's view was that the most likely warming in the next century would be one to three degrees, then you're saying they're mistaken?
MR. BLUTE: Objection. You can answer.
A: Either that, either they're mistaken, or they misinformed you, or I was able to convince him otherwise. Revelle is not an expert on mathematical models. And these numbers are derived from mathematical models.
Q: Is it fair to say that it was your belief in March of 1990 that a modest average warming in the next century would be one to two degrees Celsius?In short, 1-3 C was not such a bad estimate at the time for what would happen in a century, but sad to say Lancaster had to serve as his own attorney at the time for lack of funds. SLAPP suits depend on this. Poor Tim Ball
A: Yes, at that time that was my belief.
Q: And what influenced your belief between that time and the writing of this draft?
A: I would say a closer look at the data on temperature changes and a realization that the models are really much worse than I had thought. This was based on discussions with a number of experts whose names I've already mentioned.