UPDATE: It was a very bad night in Arkansas. 17-18 dead and today promises more. Awful.
Bunnies may recall that the last time Roger PJr. posted over at five thirty eight, a bit of controversy ensued. It reminded Eli of how Roger posting over at the late lamented Nature climate blog, contributed to the late lamented. This brings the Rabett to the just sayin' of the day.
April 15 a rather muddled article on tornado frequency by Matt Lanza appeared at 538. Maybe yes, maybe no, a slow start doesn't mean much sort of thing.
Tornado season has started quietly this year, continuing a trend that began in 2012. Through March 31, the United States had only 70 reported tornadoes even though the first quarter has averaged more than 170 a year over the last 10 years. April has remained quiet, with 36 preliminary tornado reports as of Sunday. Oklahoma hasn’t seen an intense tornado1 since May 31, the longest such stretch on record. The small tornado seen there on Sunday was the first of any kind since Aug. 7.
Many people have written about the possible causes, from drought to persistent cooler weather in places that typically see increasing tornadoes in spring. But what does this quiet start mean for the rest of the tornado season? Will our mostly good fortune continue?
Much will be revealed in the way the large-scale weather pattern unfolds in the coming weeks. But history provides a useful lesson: A quiet start to severe weather season does not necessarily mean a quiet finish.April 24 a post appears in the Wall Street Journal by Roger PJ,
The Decline of Tornado Devastation
Despite what you might have heard about 'extreme weather events,' damage and loss of life from twisters is in retreat.
Of course, and you knew of course, this weekend the tornadoes reappeared in North Carolina and in theirSo far in 2014, the United States has experienced fewer tornadoes than in any year since record-keeping began in 1953, or even before.
Greg Carbin, a meteorologist with the Storm Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has called this "likely the slowest start to tornado activity in any year in modern record, and possibly nearly a century." But just because tornado activity has declined doesn't mean that we can let down our guard, as potentially large impacts are always a threat.
Overall, however, the good news for residents of the Midwest's "Tornado Alley" and elsewhere is that over the past six decades America has witnessed a long-term decrease in both property damage and loss of life. That's the finding that I and Kevin Simmons and Daniel Sutter, two of the nation's leading tornado experts, have gleaned from studying the data on almost 58,000 tornadoes observed since 1950.
usual haunts, like Oklahoma.
Bunnies would think that Eli is not the only powerful beast who thinks Roger ridiculous.