About two years ago John Nielsen Gammon pointed out that if you separately plot global temperature anomalies for El Nino, Neutral and La Nina conditions the increase is roughly the same in each and the linear trends continue. For all Eli knows John was or was not the first to point this out, but it fairly screams at you when you plot the data
Behind the present pause in global warming.
Stefan also had made an earlier prediction when discussing ocean heating and its role in a slowdown of atmospheric warming
The next El Niño event (whenever it comes – that is a stochastic process);is likely to produce a new global mean temperature record (as happened in 2010).Eli being a very old Rabett, was sitting in the waiting room at the physician's office (Mom Rabett pointed out one's social life becomes such in old age) reading Time Magazine (where else does a bunny read Time Magazine) and found an article by Bryan Walsh (pay wall) who evidently reads Real Climate saying
... the chances are good that 2014 will be even hotter, perhaps the hottest year since records have been kept. That's because scientists are predicting 2014 will be an El Nino year.A bit ahead of the game, the National Weather Center consensus forecast is
The majority of models predict that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (Fig. 6). While current forecast probabilities are still greatest for ENSO-neutral during summer, there is an increasing chance for the development of El Niño. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).Clear if you look at how the things have been changing,
Chances are an El Nino in 2014 won't lead to guillotinings in the streets of Paris, but it would cause hotter weather globally. The three warmest years on record, 1998, 2005 and 2010 were all El Nino years. In fact 2013 was unusual because it was so hot despite the fact that there was no El Nino - a sign of just how much global warming has increased. Should the southern Pacific heat up enough for climatologists to declare and El Nino in effect - and that requires three months of ocean temperatures at least 0.9 F higher than average - expect 2014 to be a record breaker on many fronts.