Thursday, August 09, 2012

Toujours Gai

Rabett Run has today's SSMIS map from Uni Bremen and is now taking bets that before the end of summer there will be no ice in the Arctic below 90N 80N.  A few more days of the cyclone and the Bunny may have to offer odds.  Neven as usual has the details


6 comments:

deinst said...

60 North maybe, but the corners of the Gulf of Boothia and the Foxe Basin tend to have some pretty tenacious floes. 70 North, it's possible, but add the McClintock channel to the problem spots. 80 North seems unlikely, too much ice is going to be spit out into the Fram Strait, and the ice up against the Canadian arctic is too darn thick.

deinst said...

Oops, make that 70, 75 and 80. I need to learn to read a map.

Neven said...

How much area is there between 80 and 90N (land + sea)? I think minimum sea ice area could be below that.

Greg said...

Neven, 3.88 million sq km. CT area is well below that. But whenever extent falls below that number, it will be something of a milestone.

Anonymous said...

Still no takers?

Look at the area of multi-year ice from the Canadian Archipelago eastward past Greenland.

Look at the area of ice free coastal waters from the Canadian Archipelago westward past the midst of Russia.

Now look at the oceanic heat content:
http://oceans.pmel.noaa.gov/Figures/oco_heat_2012_web.pdf

The waning ice is allowing the Arctic Ocean to cool off. Eunice thinks this will lead to more sea ice fairly soon.

Eunice.

Timothy said...

Deinst is essentially correct. The last sea ice in the Arctic will be found piled up against the north Greenland and Canadian Archipelago coasts, between 80 and 85N, after everything poleward of 85N has melted out.

I'd expect a fair amount of sea-ice to survive between 75N and 80N, next to the Canadian Archipelago, even while the melt takes a substantial chunk out of the central Arctic 90 degrees to the West.