Per chance wandering by it fell to Eli to point out why Adam was wrong.
The Weasel on occasion makes posts out of his comments, and who is Eli but not to follow the lead of the local meat eater.
Over at Judy's confusatorium the denizens were complaining about how bad climate models are, Adam, the mathematician put on the harumphing regalia
Mostly because you have to estimate the forcing scenarios and those have physical, biological, economic and political drivers. Even if you had a perfect global model, you would have a wide range of possible outcomes, and some of those drivers are not controllable.Of course the wise assed answer is that mathematics and statistics are derived from sets of half assed assumptions, but to be a bit more serious while you might learn more about how the Earth system works from better models, for the purposes of prediction, you wouldn't learn much. Thus the Arrhenius Dilemma