Thursday, October 27, 2016

Ethon looks in on PR Jr


Eli was in the process of getting his act together when Ethon stuck his beak through the door.  PR Jr is at it again the bird said.  He just had a message from Phil Clarke, pointing out that Roger was parking his car on John Christy's lawn.  The lad (PR Jr, not Phil) had tweeted

pointing to a new article in Global Environmental Change.  So Eli walked out the door with Ethon and went to take a look.  For the masochists amongst the bunnies, this can be had for reading w/o paywall.

UPDATE: As to the frequency and  cost of weather disasters in the US, well Jeff Master's in 2013 had that.  2005, was of course, the 1998 of disaster years

NOAA has a nice page to bring bunnies up to date and for the auditor's in the hutch a table of particulars

And oh yes, Roger is going after Gavin Schmidt again and Gavin is not having any of it.  See your Twitter if one or the other has not blocked you, and your incognito window if they have
END UPDATE:

Interestingly, the figure, shown in the tweet is not in the paper, and guess what Roger's Internet habits showed up in John Podesta's email

From:jlegum@americanprogress.org
Date: 2014-07-28 12:35
Subject: Climate Progress In Action

In March, Nate Silver hired Roger Pielke, Jr. to write about climate change for his new website. Pielke basically has made a career of "accepting" climate change but disputing that we can really do anything about it or that it has much of an impact. The new 538 was perhaps the most hyped website to launch in years -- and it's partnership with ESPN gave it the potential to reach a broad new audience.

Prior to Pielke writing anything, ClimateProgress published piece reviewing his disputes with climate scientists and the problems with his approach. The piece included numerous quotes from climate scientists: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/19/3415984/nate-silver-science-writer-ignores-data/

Quickly, Pielke wrote a piece questioning the link between climate change and extreme weather. Within hours, ClimateProgress published a comprehensive debunk, with quotes from many prominent climate scientists: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/19/3416369/538-climate-article/

Pielke was so upset with our piece, he called the scientists we quoted and threatened to sue them.

Silver was forced to apologize: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/28/fivethirtyeight-climate-change-dispute_n_5049279.html?

Embarrassed, Silver was forced to publish a rebuttal to Pielke piece by an actual climate scientist, which was also devastating: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mit-climate-scientist-responds-on-disaster-costs-and-climate-change/

Pielke never wrote another piece on climate change for 538. Today, he confirmed that he left the site because Silver wouldn't publish his stuff any more: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/collideascape/2014/07/28/roger-pielke-jr-fivethirtyeight-climate-critics/#.U9ZZHPldWSq

I think it's fair say that, without Climate Progress, Pielke would still be writing on climate change for 538. He would be providing important cover for climate deniers backed by Silver's very respected brand. But because of our work, he is not.

I don't think there is another site on the internet having this kind of impact on the climate debate. Thanks for your support of this work. Looking forward to doing even more in the coming months.

-- Judd


Whatever said Ethon and had another peck

41 comments:

Arthur said...

The graph says it's from Pielke 2014... also you have the last half of the email pasted twice. The "skeptics" ar predictably kicking up a fuss about the email but it seems highly sensible for me - not that 538 has really turned into a major news site like vox, but every little bit of sanity helps.

8c7793aa-15b2-11e5-898a-67ca934bd1df said...

Just FYI that might be a double cut and paste error from your word processor.

Albatross said...

PR Jr (chuckle) is engaging in bait and switch again. Also see:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300347

Deception is junior's forte ;)

EliRabett said...

Thanks.

Eli thinks

Eli thinks

Kevin O'Neill said...

Stern Review, page viii, Executive Summary:

"The increased costs of damage from extreme weather (storms, hurricanes, typhoons, floods, droughts, and heat waves) counteract some early benefits of climate change and will increase rapidly at higher temperatures. Based on simple extrapolations, costs of extreme weather alone could reach 0.5 - 1% of world GDP per annum by the middle of the century, and will keep rising if the world continues to warm. "

Reading is so damn difficult.

Or is it lying is so damn *easy* for some people?

Albatross said...

Kevin, not only is reading difficult for Jr. (he seems to struggle with reading inconvenient facts especially), evidently so is being honest.

Maybe PR Jr can try, perhaps with the help of an undergrad with maths skilz, explain the maths that led him to his peculiar answer. I suspect that doing so will require invoking a series of unfortunate events...

Canman said...

Debate ducker Joe Romm can't go head to head against Roger Pielke Jr., so he has him ousted from 538 through back channels -- disgusting!

http://thebreakthrough.org/archive/why_joe_romm_wont_debate_roger

8c7793aa-15b2-11e5-898a-67ca934bd1df said...

This is war against retarded and intellectually crippled people like you and Roger Pielke Jr., Canman, so as far as I'm concerned, anything goes, as long as it is legal. Anonymity is your friend.

andthentheresphysics said...

Presumably one issue with the figure that you show is that it is Disaster losses as a proportion of GDP. Since 1990, Global GDP has increased - I think - by a factor of 3 and so a reduction in the proportion of GDP does not mean a reduction in actual losses.

Fernando Leanme said...

The fact is that extreme weather is a bogus issue.. Temperature and sea level increase so slow people don't care, the polar bears are doing fine, the earth is getting greener and the warmer weather is highly appreciated at this time of the year (this is such a nice fall we have been wearing shorts and I haven't turned on the gas furnace). So relax and take a trip to Zambia where they are installing solar panels.

andthentheresphysics said...

Fernando,
What you've just said is a wonderful illustration of how little you actually understand what you claim to know with certainty.

Phil Clarke said...

A couple of quick points, to the best of my reading Stern ACTUALLY predicted an increase on 2%pa, from a base of 0.2% of Global GDP. So 0.6 by now would be an increase of 200% over a decade.

Secondly, looking at an individual year is not sensible, a bad hurricane year for the US can double or triple the damage of the 'average' year.

Prof Tol linked to the RP Jr PR tweet in a thread at Bish Hill, I've asked for a Page Ref in the Stern tome, I'll report back when one is provided ...

Albatross said...

ATTP is right, actual losses have increased and significantly so:

From Hoeppe (2016):

The trend curve indicating the number of loss relevant natural catastrophes worldwide reveals an increase by a factor of about three within the last 35 years.

Caveat, obtaining global data that is of high quality is difficult, so the above number has been adjusted for inflation only. For the US and Germany, where we do have high quality data, Barthel and Neumayer (2012) found significant normalized increases in losses for all weather related disasters even after normalizing for GDP and insurance penetration.

Phil, maybe the folks at BH can convince PR Jr to reveal how he arrived at his answer? Or did one of Tol's gremlins eat Jr's homework?

Canman said...

8c779...: "This is war ..."

I think the word you're looking for is "crusade".

BBD said...

I think the word you're looking for is "crusade".

Stop playing the victim. The real problem is that it is all too rare for the media to rid itself of a misinformer.

8c7793aa-15b2-11e5-898a-67ca934bd1df said...

Sure, if you think that just because my belief that science is capable of solving problems is tantamount to a religion, fine. Science created nuclear weapons, so I guess that makes this a 'crusade'. So if Donald Trump can embrace fascist lies in order to get his finger the button and legally push it, then I will do whatever I can to legally diminish and marginalize your idiotic, deluded and nutty religious thoughts and lies on what is important and what is not important, and what problems need to be solved on this planet to keep it functioning for an abode for life of every variety. The prayers and lies that you, Roger Pielke Jr., the Boiz of the Breakthrough Institute and Donald Trump and his true believing followers embrace aren't working for me. Science is.

Enjoy your civil war. I will do everything in my power to legally make it extremely unpleasant for you and your inbred descendants.

Just FYI, I am being crystal clear on my intent here.

Russell Seitz said...

Who needs Hillary's e-mails
when John Podesta's are so much fun:


http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2016/10/ad-john-podesta-ex-masters-of-disaster.html

Russell Seitz said...

The link weirdness continues-

The link above connects to the blog but gets gets a No such Page box ,
while the URL:

http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2016/10/ad-john-podesta-ex-masters-of-disaster.html

works fine

8c7793aa-15b2-11e5-898a-67ca934bd1df said...

The Martians said the same thing, Russel, that really worked out well.

Russell Seitz said...

Who knew the Martian's read ClimateProgress?

8c7793aa-15b2-11e5-898a-67ca934bd1df said...

The desertification and destruction of the surface of their lovely planet only happened slower because there were far fewer of them.

And they were far more primitive. So by all means, speed up the process. I'm sure your unthinking coinhabitants will be grateful.

Mal Adapted said...

But Russell, who heeds Podesta when they've got Frank Luntz?

Mal Adapted said...

Russell: "The link above connects to the blog but gets gets a No such Page box"

The link above has an extraneous double-quote character at the end.

Russell Seitz said...

Thanks, Mal-

Here's the corrected link to The Troglodyte Narrative

Russell Seitz said...

Aarrgh !

It just wont go-


Your HTML cannot be accepted: Closing tag has no matching opening tag: A

Kevin O'Neill said...

I have to try - just for the fun of it :)

What We Call the Troglodyte Narrative

EliRabett said...

Russ, get a kid to help you

Tom said...

You morons turned a potential ally into an enemy. Again. And then you doubled down. Again. Trump didn't learn his schtick from deniers. He learned it from congenital idiots on the alarmist side.

Just keep doing what you're doing.

BBD said...

Um, how can a serial misinformer like PR Jr be a potential ally, Tom?

Tom said...

Umm, BBD, because he is concerned about climate change and supports measures to mitigate against it and adapt to it.

How many fingers am I holding up?

BBD said...

PR Jr has not succeeded in persuading the world that he is an honest broker Tom. Rather the opposite, in fact.

I'm holding up two fingers. If I were American, it would be one.

EliRabett said...

Tom, AFAEIC Roger was always a back biting self promoting little twit. Rabett's 2005 take remains spot on:

What you are doing here, and in your publications, and on Prometheus is to assert ownership of a series of issues, the latest of which is hurricane damage due to climate change. Your incessant self citation is a clear indication. I am certain you will reply that somewhere in a post somewhen you may have mentioned another’s work. You react to any challenge to your theses virulently, and in your replies often distort what others have said, for example your last blow up about the Trenberth slide. In short, you act as a policy person, not a science person. Horrors, at least when this is pointed out. But again, sui generis. This is what one expects of a policy wonk, for example Brad de Long. Yet, you keep telling those of us who reply to you that you are scientifically as pure as the driven snow. I beg to differ.

If you had a better sense of irony you would have named your blog “Zeus’ Eagle”, not let on to what the reference was, and merrily gone on pecking at the livers of those whose research falisified your opinions.

Of course, Eli was much nicer then before he had really become acquainted with Roger

Russell Seitz said...

Eli, I can mirror if you want to try for yourself- The dozens of identically formatted comments from before the last Safari & OSX updates suggest there really is a bug,

Tom said...

Rabett, a lot of the people on your side are backbiting little twits, yourself very much included. I don't see what that would exclude Pielke.

Happy to see any direct reference to him claiming to be as pure as the driven snow.

It's just the same old story. If you don't agree with me 100% you're a hack or worse. If I attack you it's okay. If you attack Trenberth you're a criminal.

You're a bunch of rats tied into a bag. The environment suffers as a result. And when climate change finally comes home to roost in a couple of decades, you two-digit IQ types will actually look to blame someone besides yourselves. Yeah, Exxon did it! That's right...

To quote The Man With No Name, "God is on their side because he hates idiots."

BBD said...

You're a bunch of rats tied into a bag.

We are a bunch of rats tied into a bag, Tom. That's why misinformation is so naughty.

Tom said...

Then BBD, you are one of the naughtiest.

BBD said...

Then BBD, you are one of the naughtiest.

Where and when?

Tom said...

Hey, sport, we can join Joe and Donny behind the gym.

snarkrates said...

Wow, Tom, an Internet tough guy as well as an imbecile and bully--triple threat.

EliRabett said...

Joe said that if he were in high school he would invite Donnie behind the gym. Donnie wanted to haul his current self there. Joe in HS would have taken Donnie but the juxtaposition is indicative.

Tom is a jewel.

PurpleOzone said...

snow bunny says:

Munichre (reinsurers) keeps careful statistics of natural catastrophes. iii.org lists figures from 1980 to current. Clearly, more weather catastrophes are occurring than geophysical in recent years. http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/catastrophes-global

scroll down several graphs to find the one titled "World Natural Catastrophes, 1980–First Half 2016".

Pierce could look up this figures for himself, instead of just declaiming.