Joe Romm was reading the 2016 update of US DOE's Revolution . . . Now: The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies when he exclaimed: Chart of the Year
The must-read report reveals the game-changing progress core clean energy technologies have made over the last several years — specifically, solar, wind, LED lights, batteries, and electric cars. Accelerated deployment driven by smart government policies, both domestically and around the world, have created economies of scale and brought technologies down the learning curve faster than almost anyone expected.
The next time an opponent of climate action questions the cost-effectiveness and scalability of climate solutions — or the value of government clean energy policies — the top chart and indeed the whole report should be front and center in your response.
This was picked up all across the tweet zone, Of course, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and some, well some (actually all) of the luckwarmers have no rhythm, Our good news is their embarrassment, and up stepped Andy Revkin to tweet
Eli, Eli OTOH is a strange cross between a chemist, a chemical physicist, a spectroscopist, a kineticist and, oh well a blogger, so what he saw is something that was better plotted elsewise.With renewable @energy cost drops flattening. https://t.co/pBVRA040ak glad @ErnestMoniz pressing deploy AND rd&d https://t.co/Pv20DLCfFb pic.twitter.com/cq4aKOlBgk— Andy Revkin (@Revkin) September 28, 2016
Taking electrons in hand the bunny wrote to the drawer of the graph and person most responsible for the report, Paul Donohoo-Vallett at DOE HQ down the block for the data and Dr. Donohoo Vallett replied post haste
At a minimum the LED curve suggested a first order (exponential) fall off in cost, and to be honest the others looked sort of the same to Eli so he replotted it all as a semi-log plot and fit the decreases to straight lines
Not perfect but a lot better than force fitting to a Tolian (Tolian's being functions that go exactly where Richard Tol wants them to) with a lot less effort. A bunny can fuss about this brute forcing, but not Eli. The most interesting part of this is converting the slopes to half lives for each of the technologies.
Not too shabby and LEDs are beating the current version of Moore's law.