Thursday, March 20, 2014

Springtime, and the Ice Is A Melting

From the Climate Reanalyzer, a picture of sea surface temperature anomalies on the last day of winter.

Oh yes, our friends at Uni Bremen show where the ice is.  Overlaying the maps is interesting, there is a cold block of ice in the Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard but if the plug comes out . . .

Place your bets.


Anonymous said...

Arctic Sea Ice

The latest value: 14,448,299 km2 (March 19, 2014)

That is a lot of ice for March 19th

EliRabett said...

Still below the 2000s average and a huge heatwave over Siberia is breaking up the Kara Sea

The March maximum is misleading in the sense that a lot of it is sure to melt (Hudson's Bay for example) what is important is ice blocking outflows.

Nick Stokes said...

Here is a movie version of SST, up to 18th Mar. It is from NOAA AVHRR. It shows more uniform ice, but warmer water around Svalbard.

Anonymous said...

Yes, the 'Reanalyzer' probably needs the 'Reassesor' - it depicts SST anomalies ( where sea ice is today ) of +4C at odds with the NOAA data around 0C.

The citation of Arctic Sea Ice decline is taken as evidence of GW. Estimates I have seen indicate that indeed, very little additional energy is necessary to melt all of a given year's ASI. But we should recall that 1.) additional energy is always available from the warmer waters beneath the ice. and 2.) dynamics describe the shape of the ice ( large amount of thick ice along the Canadian Archipelago ) much better than thermodynamics:



Aaron said...

This is all long before the GIS has come to equilibrium with much less than 1C of warming. Loss of Arctic Sea ice will turn the Arctic into Greenland's very own solar collector.

It seems that the climate models neglected a few issues, and our interpretation of model runs was, and remains, wishful.

Jim Pettit said...

If that is "a lot of ice for March 19th", there was still 214,000 square kilometers less of this year than than there was on the same day in 2012. (For comparison purposes, that difference encompasses an area larger than the U.S. state of Kansas.) And remember, 2012 was the year of the record-setting melt-out.

(But don't worry; good and faithful Watts-Bots assure us that the Arctic Sea Ice "recovery" has already started; we just won't be able to see it until all that pesky melting stops.)

Anonymous said...

Seems a lot of melt south of Bering Strait for this time of year?

Eli is right - if the "plugs" go, there will be increased.

But after some years of ice-watching, the Arctic is full of surprises and seldom follows the script, at least in the short term.


Pete Dunkelberg said...

The overall Arctic temperature is high but so is the AO, favoring ice for now.

Anonymous said...

The latest value: 14,448,299 km2 (March 19, 2014)

The latest value: 14,448,416 km2 (March 20, 2014)

With your limited cognitive powers, I am surprised they accept your taxes in Naples.

Jim Pettit said...

Oh, Anonymous, you brave one! Congrats on your ability to note that Arctic sea ice extent grew by a whopping 117 km2--an area half the size of Chicago--in the 24 hours between 3/19 and 3/20! And by your (admittedly creepy) ability to call out my location, can we all assume you've finally learned how to use the Google? If so, gold star for you, little one! Gold star for you!

Pete Dunkelberg said...

The latest value: 14,408,834 km2 (March 21, 2014)