Sunday, March 02, 2014

Amazonian in the Martian sense of the word

More from Coursera, Week 3:

In the ensemble average, mean annual runoff decreases in a 2°C world by around 30, 20, 40, and 20 percent in the Danube, Mississippi, Amazon, and Murray Darling river basins, respectively, while it increases by around 20 percent in both the Nile and the Ganges basins, compared to the 1961–190 baseline period. Thus, according to Fung et al. (2011), all these changes are approximately doubled in magnitude in a 4°C world.
Yikes. Now I see a reason for the lack of snark-hiding.


Anonymous said...

And you would have confidence in an unverified model because...???

Steve Bloom said...

The models are uniformly more verifiable and verified than denialists. The application of this principle is left as an exercise for the reader.

Brian, that would be a different Fung, although I'm sure Inez would agree.