The coming and increasing inconvenience of combustion engine vehicles

(NOTE: Unlike most of my posts, I want to keep returning and updating this one, so content will change over time. One critique I'll make of my original post is that I focused too much on range anxiety. The range anxiety issue is a subset of a broader issue of relative convenience of EVs versus gas engines. A virtuous cycle is just starting to happen, where EVs become more convenient and eat into the gas engine market, making them less convenient, spurring even greater EV adoption. More updates follow the original post below.)


The big challenge for electric vehicles is that we have the societal infrastructure to support gas engines but not electric. Despite that fact, in California the hybrid and EV plug-ins are now 1.8% of the market. Globally and nationally, estimates range from one to three percent of all vehicles in 2019-2020 will be the two types of plug-ins (see page 4).

The infrastructure challenge is real even if "range anxiety" is overhyped. To the extent that challenge to plug-ins is met and overcome, though, then the shoe is on the other foot. Every sale of a plug-in vehicle decreases support for the infrastructure supporting gas vehicles. When plugins are taking only one percent of the market, the decrease is insignificant. When they take three percent, it's starting to be significant, and we can expect the effect to increase and to be concentrated in some areas. If nearly two percent of California car sales are electric now, then what will be the percent in a decade, and what will be the situation in the San Francisco and LA metropolitan areas?

There are going to be fewer gas stations and fewer gas engine car servicing businesses. They'll try to adapt but plugins and especially EVs won't need charging stations in the same places and they won't need as much maintenance.

I think we may be about a decade away (or less) from hearing the first complaints of that gas stations aren't as easy to find as they use to be. What I'd call the "relative convenience factor" between ICE and EVs change not just as EVs get more convenient with longer range and more charging options. The convenience of ICE vehicles decrease as they lose market share and start losing parts of their support infrastructure.

The important thing about relative convenience is the process could be a virtuous cycle - ICE vehicles become less convenient as their infrastructure disappears with decreasing sales, so people buy fewer ICE vehicles and more EVs, and the ICE infrastructure thins out still more. The process may accelerate as investors hesitate to put money in the gas vehicle infrastructure, knowing they'll need a number of years to make a profit while their market is shrinking.

I know I'm pretty good at counting my chickens before they hatch, and I recognize that cars have a 10-year lifespan so it takes a while for the existing car population to reflect changes in sales (UPDATE:  per the comments, more like 20 years, although older cars are driven much less). Still, I can see this happening in a decade in some markets, especially where I live.


UPDATE:  from September 2013 -  Norway, especially Oslo, should be the first test of the virtuous cycle. Too bad I'm not an expert on Norwegian gas station businesses or we might already know the  answer.


UPDATE:  from a June 2016 post - Others noticing gas stations disappearing, and that EVs will have an effect. Norway and other countries discuss future gas engine bans, with varying levels of seriousness.


UPDATE:  from July 2017 blog post -

• I think there's already a good argument that in many two-car households, having one vehicle as an EV is already more convenient than two gas engines.

•  I agree that increased fuel economy has reduced gas demand and gas station numbers, and that in turn reduces the convenience of gas engines. By itself though, increased mileage will only go so far in knocking down station numbers. Absent further improvement, there should be a stabilized point where the number of stations balance with the new, lower demand.

• I also agree that factors making land more valuable for uses other than gas stations are the primary motivators so far in reducing station numbers, particularly in dense urban cores. While extraneous, this also reduces gas engine convenience. Like increased gas mileage, it only reduces convenience up to a point as opposed to being a virtuous cycle.

• Gas stations will (and have) reacted to find non-gas ways to boost sales. As they go further in that direction though, they'll have fewer pumps or no pumps, and the inconvenience will still increase. 

• Gas engine repair and maintenance will also become less convenient - EVs need less maintenance and different equipment, so fewer mechanics will train on gas engines. Those repair bays will get replaced with expanded coffee shops and (possibly) electric charging stations.

• While EVs have only a small impact so far on gas demand, they can affect what's happening right now based on people's expectations of the future. Take for example a family business that owns a dozen gas stations, with the parents nearing retirement and kids deciding whether to take over versus having a very different career. Those kids may well be concerned about what EVs will do to the business in 10-15 years (and should be) and tell the parents to sell instead. Anyone else thinking of a 10-year investment knows there's a risk that EVs will significantly hurt the resale value. These EV effects on gas stations are happening now.

• Not an expert on this, but I'm guessing that ultimately there's not much long-term future for stand-alone EV charging stations replacing gas pumps, except on interstate highways. As EV range gets further and further above 200 miles, and as fast chargers become ubiquitous at work, shopping, and home, there just won't be a need except on highways where lots of people are traveling long distances. This could affect gas station viability over time.

• And finally, the above is mostly predictive rather than policy-related, but if the virtuous cycle is real then it does have policy implications. Aggressive long-term EV targets are achievable and should be pursued because there's a virtuous cycle effect we have barely experienced yet that will make them work. Outright bans on gas engine sales like those proposed in the future for Norway and elsewhere will be politically feasible because the writing will be on the wall concerning EV superiority.

UPDATE March 2019: we have data! Gas stations and gas consumption in SF Bay Area, for future comparison.

UPDATE July 2019: still easier for a tourist to use an ICE vehicle rental than an EV in rural Norway.

UPDATE September 2019: updated gas station and consumption data for the SF Bay Area show significant decreases for both, despite the strong economy. 

UPDATE May 2023: Gas consumption in California shows a decrease, not yet for the US as a whole.