Saturday, September 07, 2019

The long-awaited Bay Area gas station count is here - more hints of an EV effect making ICE vehicles less convenient

Don't get too excited now. Updated figures on gas stations and gasoline consumption in the Bay Area are out:

Gas stations continue to decrease despite a strong economy and an increased population. San Francisco in particular lost 14% of its gas stations in a year, and now has one station for every 11,000 people. While many other factors could influence gas station counts, there's also gas consumption:

Consumption is down 7% from the high in 2016, mirroring the decrease in gas stations since 2016.

It takes a while for the increasing market share of new EV purchases to be reflected by the total vehicle fleet. OTOH, EVs get driven more than ICE vehicles so their share of vehicle miles will be greater than the share of the total fleet. It seems likely that EV market penetration is a big part of the reason gas consumption is decreasing and part of the reason why stations are disappearing. As EVs become more convenient, ICE vehicles are becoming less convenient to fill up.


Canman said...

Andrew Montford points out that the electrical infrastructure for recharging electric cars is not trivial:

"The infrastructure expenditure required would dwarf the NBN cost excluding the new power stations required. These advocates of all electric vehicles by the year 2040 are completely bonkers. It takes 5-8 years to design and build a large coal fired power station like LoyYang and even longer for a Nuclear one (that’s after you get the political will, permits and legislative changes needed ). Wind and solar just can’t produce enough. It’s just a green silly dream in the foreseeable future other than in small wealthy countries. It will no doubt ultimately come, but not in the next 20 years. ..."

Barton Paul Levenson said...

"Wind and solar just can’t produce enough."

Prove it. Show your work.

Everett F Sargent said...

City gas stations dwindle in real estate boom (2014-10-06)

Gas stations in Bay Area disappearing to make way for housing (2016-08-08)

Sign of the times: Gas stations close, open because of the economy (2019-04-05)

And before you go and quote auto mechanic Simon Ho, no I don't consider him a SME on EV's.

This is the most important sentence: "Gas stations open and close quickly because of the economy."

Someone here, who might be located in The Bay area, might want to take a basic course in Statistics 101 and control for other more important factors (e. g. real estate and housing). /:

Unknown said...

my shell station (university and bonar) now has a hydrogen pump after their just completed remodeling. thankfully they kept the diesel


Everett F Sargent said...

For Brian,

New Study Shows Spike In Bay Area Electric Car Sales