Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Wanna Bet?

Summer is the slow season so Christopher Monckton is out drumming up business at the farm.  More of the usual graphology, but maybe a little to much, enough so that John Abraham decided to offer a wager.  Now some, not Eli to be sure, might think that the obvious outcome of this would simply be some volume of self righteous spew from the gook Lord, but Eli is an optimistic bunny, and he would like part of the action if there is a side bet  on the outcome of this to be had (don't tell Ms. Rabett).

Dear Mr. Monckton,

I understand that you’ve claimed Earth’s temperatures will likely decrease by 0.5 C most certainly by 2020.  Specifically, you stated this on a website:
“Meanwhile, enjoy what warmth you can get. A math geek with a track-record of getting stuff right tells me we are in for 0.5 Cº of global cooling. It could happen in two years, but is very likely by 2020. His prediction is based on the behavior of the most obvious culprit in temperature change here on Earth – the Sun.”

Here is the link:

I am calling your claim.  I challenge you to a $1000 bet on both.  Specifically,

1. I challenge you to a $1000 bet that the Earth temperature will not drop 0.5 C in two years
2. I challenge you to a second $1000 bet that the Earth temperature will not drop 0.5 C by 2020

Let’s keep stipulations as few as possible.  My only requirement is that any major volcanic eruptions would make the bet void.  I will let you choose the temperature dataset (NASA GISTEMP, NOAA, HADCRUT4).  Any reputable data set of land-ocean surface temperatures.  I will let you choose the starting year of 2012 or 2013.  Obligations to pay can be based off our word and the publicity of this challenge.  If you require payment to be sent to a third party ahead of time, I will gladly oblige.

Please respond at your earliest convenience, I am anxious to finalize this agreement.  Please be assured that if you decline this wager, I will make your declination public.


As Always
Dr. John Abraham
University of St. Thomas

UPDATE:  Prof. Abraham adds a couple sweetner
Can we agree to donate the money to a charity that deals with climate issues.  Selected by winner of the wager.


Wotts Up With That Blog said...

Just have to comment to say that I thoroughly enjoy your posts and also your comments that you make on other posts. Almost always puts a smile on my face. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

just 1000$ on both? I would bet my apartment (I don't have a house to bet :( ) against this Monckton stuff. I would also include nuclear winter :) as another condition for void bet.

Arthur said...

Maybe somebody can take bets on what kind of response Monckton will give?

I bet he's going to do his best to ignore it...

Anonymous said...

As i noted on Judith's what would be funny is to organize a large number of people to wager a dollar with the Lord.

Gator said...

They could use long bets?

Russell Seitz said...

'gook lord '

Surely you mean goon?

Anonymous said...

Heh - John Abraham preempted me! And I was going to go down Saulius' route and offer my acreage and all it's chattels against Monckton's own.

Mr Monckton knows where to find me should he decide to take me up on my offer. I'll leave it open for the next week, after which I will move on to find a new idiot with whom to test respective confidences in the science.

Bernard J.

Hank Roberts said...

Someone ought to be able to make an analogy out of this. Money is like sunlight; bank deposits are like heat captured; lending is like warming the atmosphere; and the apparent flatlining of land temperature is like what happens to the economy when the bankers deep-six the money in their vaults .... no, that can't be right. But it's such a pretty chart: