Tuesday, June 12, 2012


News comes of a working paper which has been withdrawn pending re-estimation of the results.   Now some, not Eli to be sure, would say that we got a serial offender here.


badger badger badger said...

You know if you do an image search of Richard Tol, the Bride of Frankenstein comes up, though not for the obvious reason.

EWI said...

And lest anyone underestimate the seriousness of these "working papers" which get published without any serious oversight, this particular Tol effort made the claim that 44% of Irish people would be better off on the dole.

The utility of this (being charitable) "mistake" to a right-wing point of view arguing that the unemployed were being too large a pittance and therefore negatively affecting employment figures... well, you don't have to be in the top 300 economists in the world to see that one.

EWI said...

*the unemployed were being paid

bigcitylib said...

The recipe for success in life is Hair + Smarts. Richard Tol is half-way to ruling the planet.

EliRabett said...

The base problem, is of course, Krugman's paradox.

Putting people to work means that there is more income in the system which employs many more people in turn, whose expenditures support further people in jobs, etc. What Tol was claiming was that the net income to the 44% would be higher because of the difference between their income in jobs and their expenses for job related stuff such as commuting would be less than the dole payment.

Well, the dole payments come from taxes, etc. Tolitarianism is another version of the race to the bottom.

Anonymous said...

Here in Ireland, Professor Tol has removed his countenance from us, to work in a UK university.

Somehow he never blended in.

I heard him on the news 5 minutes ago "standing over" his figures. Good on you, Prof, maybe you should call up Michael Mann or Phil Jones, you know, get a few tips on how to handle media frenzy.

As I recall, Professor, you have been on the giving end of necktie parties before, but you are on the receiving end this time.


Anonymous said...

Well color me stoopid, that is why they call me "Hey Stoopid".

For whom the bell Tol's.

The force of denial, is strong with this one.

Or, an interesting way of imploding his academic career.

Say, that reminded me of one 'Gabriel Calzada Alvarez', with a hidden foolish agenda, who wrote a really crap "Econometric Tim" paper, in 2009, complete with falsified data.

At the end of the day, they dig their own graves of pure Mount Everest size "BS".

Richard S J Tol said...

Eli dear:

The Stern comment was never withdrawn.

The ESRI paper was withdrawn for reasons unknown to me, but re-estimation of the results is surely not one.

Antiquated Tory said...

This comment in The Journal was recommended to me. Surely it's of some note that Richard Tol's paper was written against the backdrop of 2004-2005 Ireland, economically a very different country than Ireland today?