Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Andy Lacis Meets the Train Wreck

Rattus points to a post by Andy Lacis at Curry's Train Wreck Shed, which has tied the usual suspects up in fluff and spawned 650 sputters and a second thread. The post itself is both sharp and informative reprise of Lacis, Schmidt, Rind and Ruedy's year old Science article on the greenhouse effect and climate change. Eli recommends reading both. Look for La Curry to try and bury this one. While the bunnies are about it, stirring up the natives might be enjoyable. They are rather off balance.

Lacis, is particularly fond of Bishop Hill's attempt to paint him as an IPCC critic of the good clergy's church, whereas Andy

. . .was irked by the persistent use of wishy-washy terminology such as ‘likely’ and ‘very likely’ that was totally uncalled for. One example: “It is likely that there has been a substantial anthropogenic contribution to surface temperature increases in every continent except Antarctica since the middle of the 20th century.

Such ‘social sciences’ terminology might be allowable if there was no other available evidence for global warming except for the statistical analysis of a relatively short global temperature time-series (on which there is superimposed a substantial natural variability component). But the physical evidence for global warming is quite overwhelming, and it is downright irresponsible (and stupid) not to make use of it.

More specifically: (1) precise measurements show atmospheric CO2 has increased from its 280 ppm pre-industrial value to the current ~390 ppm; (2) there is available an accurate HITRAN tabulation of line absorption coefficients for all of the atmospheric absorbing gases; (3) we have available accurate radiation modeling techniques as well as capable global climate models; and (4) that 9 Gigatons of carbon (coal, gas, oil) are being burned each year (by us humans).

Based on this basic input data, the relevant physics is inescapably clear that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is indeed enhancing the strength of the terrestrial greenhouse effect, and thus causing global warming to happen – all directly attributable to human industrial activity. To characterize this fully documented global warming only as being ‘likely’ a ’substantial’ anthropogenic contribution is clearly resorting to unscientific understatement that does nothing to clarify or accurately portray our understanding of global climate change. Rather, using such under-whelming weasel words only adds to the deliberate public confusion regarding climate change. Unfortunately, such subtle misinformation is being actively promoted by the fossil fuel lobbyists and their growing multitude of dupes and minions.

Perhaps the only thing that Eli would emphasize more, is that given our continuing perturbation of the atmosphere, oceans and land, natural variation will be insignificant in the not too far away future.

And for those of you in Pielkesport, sKs has something

58 comments:

Dallas said...

"Perhaps the only thing that Eli would emphasize more, is that given our continuing perturbation of the atmosphere, oceans and land, natural variation will be insignificant in the not too far away future."

That could be very true.

Hank Roberts said...

>> by Judith Curry
...
>> (heavy moderation will be imposed)

When?

Hank Roberts said...

aside to Eli: links reversed above:
Andy Lacis is the Oct. 11th second thread
second thread. is the Oct 9th first thread

Holly Stick said...

Hank, the iron sun guy (Oliver Manuel) hasn't appeared, though I don't know if he has tried to.

Meanwhile, WTFUWT is inviting people to picket a talk to be given by Michael Mann tomorrow:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/11/picket-protest-planned-for-mann/

Anonymous said...

Much tone trolling because Lacis used a few hard words like 'minion'. Deniers are such a sensitive lot, they should be pittied for being so mistreated by Lacis. Much "No, it's not! Boehoe!!". Much "Look: climategate!". Etc. Also, Mosher seems to be pulling hairs out over the stupidity as well while trying to make some sense along with a few others like WHT.

So yeah, what a trainwreck it is, but it makes an awesome read....once in a while. Reminds me again for why I'm not visiting visit WUWT, Curry's or similar sites. Thanks Eli!

--cynicus

Anonymous said...


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/11/picket-protest-planned-for-mann/


Maybe some pro-science folks should show up to the protest, wearing mullet wigs and tinfoil-covered tricorn hats, carrying signs with spelling/grammatical errors (i.e. "Al Gore is a Moran"), etc. Turn that little denier clambake into a "Poe Picket Protest" (PPP) event. Let the conference attendees have a little fun trying to sort out the real protesters from the "Poes" aka imposters making fun of them.

Anonymous said...

Well, I read the Lacis abstract, and whooped with glee. What a beautiful piece of exposition. It takes genius to express so much complexity with such simplicity.

Not sure I dare attempt the rest of the paper. I might die of happiness.

Former Skeptic said...

re: Pielkesport:

Any bets on (1) when Roger will leave the thread with a harrumphing huff? and (2) when Whiny Watts will play the victim card and dog-whistle his nutjob brigade to flood SkS?

Anonymous said...

'flood SkS'?

Well, "elsa" has turned up, and I've seen her elsewhere. Very boring. Stubborn, intransigent, incorrigible, relentless. She would have done well in an old-fashioned elocution class, memorising and reciting her set texts with nary a hesitation. Nothing, absolutely nothing, can divert her from the words she's learnt to declaim.

Is she one of that brigade?

MinniesMum

Steve Bloom said...

"(N)atural variation will be insignificant in the not too far away future."

I have to disagree. The system sloshes around as it is, and we're giving it more with which to slosh around, with the result that natural variability acting on anthropogenic forcings is where the big, nasty impacts are, at least in the short to medium term. (Longer term, averaged effects such as the ice sheets melting and the tropics becoming too warm to inhabit become significant.)

This seems like an important-ish distinction to me. Does it to anyone else?

Attempting a re-phrase, could we say that the scale of natural variability we see absent anthropogenic forcings will become insignificant in the not too far away future?

Steve Bloom said...

Also, you go Andy.

Steve Bloom said...

Correction: Scratch the "natural" from the proposed re-phrase.

John Mashey said...

Oliver Manuel did show up.

So did Donald Rapp.

Anonymous said...

the pielke thread is amazing. He still hasn't acknowledged his errors that were pointed out 5 years ago.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/attribution-of-20th-century-climate-change-to-cosub2sub/

David B. Benson said...

Steve Bloom --- Natural variation won't go away but rather be seen (as it is now) as superimposed on an ever increasing upward trend.

So long as the fossil fuels hold out.

Russell said...

"Let the conference attendees have a little fun trying to sort out the real protesters from the "Poes"
Have you ever been to a Heartland conference ?

If only they'd go the whole hog and ask Roy to run for President:


http://tinypic.com/r/14eckfs/7.html

Former Skeptic said...

Update on Pielkesport: The chutzpah of this reply has to be framed for posterity

"You are not debating; you are lecturing."

Where's Willard when you need him?

J Bowers said...

"Meanwhile, WTFUWT is inviting people to picket a talk to be given by Michael Mann tomorrow:"

If Mann had the time the organisers could schedule an extra hour, invite them in, and let him have a frank debate with them Stephen Schneider style. Have them sign consent forms and film it. Popcorn time.

But make sure they're searched by security first.

b5230294-91bd-11e0-a606-000bcdcb5194 said...

But, CO2 is up and Temp down. End of story.

J Bowers said...

Hmmm.

Anonymous said...

There are some amusing comments in the WTFUWT AGU protest discussion thread:

My favorite so far:

J Bowers says:
October 12, 2011 at 1:20 am

Get the Westboro Baptisits to join in. Make it a full set.

cRR Kampen said...

Absolutely agree with Lacis. Skip the likelies. We're there, dudes. And guess what - climatology really is as simple as that. Add greenhouse gas and world gets warmer, end of story.

End of story, b5230294-91bd-11e0-a606-000bcdcb5194 or what's your name? Yes, mate. If ever you happen to miss some heat just wait for it to pop out of the seas, as in http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-Deep-Ocean-Warms-When-Global-Surface-Temperatures-Stall--.html .

Anonymous said...

Pielkesport is a dangerous sport. Put away hot drinks, head in vice and all that stuff. Ready?

Daddy Roger Rabbit:
"Some of the reader's comments on Anthony's weblog may be caustic at times (as they are at SkS; and at Real Climate, where I have also been commenting), but Anthony has the highest level of professional integrity. His posts are very informative, and even if you do not agree with him, you will broaden your prespective. He is as sincere in his views as you are on yours."

Can Eli please provide evidence in support of "Anthony has the highest level of professional integrity", because I can't find it and I've looked everywhere.

J Bowers said...

"Pielkesport is a dangerous sport. Put away hot drinks, head in vice and all that stuff. Ready?"

"The tree doesn't grow far from the apple." -- Tom Selleck.

cRR Kampen said...

Anonymous, look down, like into the direction where ships sink to.

"The work I do here important, and I’ve always hoped that someday, if I worked hard enough, and produced enough clever articles and research, that I’d finally get invited into the exclusive club of climate cash that supposedly the rest of the skeptics are getting.
[..]
I’m was so relieved when the notice came in email today."

Sic. From http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/12/my-ship-has-just-come-in/

What bunny grammar dere now :)

Anonymous said...

More from Daddy Roger Rabbit at SkepticalScience, this is him defending his cherry pick of 1998:

"What is the trend since 2000, 2001, 2002 etc. I realize these are shorter time periods. My point is that if you would to convince people that human's are causing global warming, there are going to ask where the warming has been in the lower troposphere since 2002?"

I see, ignore my 1998 cherry pick, I now cherry pick 2002 says Daddy Roger Rabbit because that is sooo much better. Head exploding stuff.

Neven said...

Watts is so proud that he's disinforming for free. Nevertheless, I'd still like to know how much is coming in through donations (I 'made' almost 1000 dollars in one melting season) and an increase in weather gadget sales.

How I would laugh reading Watts' post if I were one of those people getting extremely rich every minute meaningful action to mitigate AGW consequences is delayed. All those fools achieving the exact opposite of what they want.

Holly Stick said...

"He is as sincere in his views as you are on yours."

Sincerity only matters to the Great Pumpkin:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiSIQzwIPzQ&feature=related

pough said...

"He is as sincere in his views as you are on yours."

So is the Time Cube guy. Nobody claims he's insincere, just that he's wrong.

Rattus Norvegicus said...

Well placed sources (MEM) say a grand total of 6 protestors showed up for the event at GSA in Minneapolis. FAIL!

Jeffrey Davis said...

"Sincerity" is nonsense. You can't cherry-pick without knowing you're cherry-picking. You can't counter arguments with often rebutted arguments without knowing that you're recycling crap. Do you think the Carbon Kings don't know they're scoundrels? They just don't care. Who can pay for propaganda without knowing they're buying pooh? Nobody.

Anonymous said...


Well placed sources (MEM) say a grand total of 6 protestors showed up for the event at GSA in Minneapolis. FAIL!


Q: What has 12 legs and 10 teeth?

A: A denier protest against Michael Mann!

Anonymous said...

ROTFLMAO

http://twitter.com/#!/MichaelEMann/status/124304235750895616/photo/1/large

J Bowers said...

Blimey, not a polar bear suit in sight. How very disappointing.

Anonymous said...

In the Michael Mann twitter pic, he must be "Hiding the Protesters"!

Rib smokin' Bunny

Anonymous said...

Those threads always remind Horatio of his grandfather's cornfields. With one difference: Horatio always knew the latter would end, eventually.

The Curry Cornfield
--by Horatio Algeranon

The Curry Cornfield never ends
O'er hill and dale the labyrinth wends
With row upon row of science dead ends
And Uncertainty Monsters round all the bends.

Anonymous said...


In the Michael Mann twitter pic, he must be "Hiding the Protesters"!


Don't you mean, "Hiding the Deniers"?

Rattus Norvegicus said...

No, he's hiding the defectives!

dhogaza said...

Shit, no pitchforks and torches? Mann must be disappointed ...

J Bowers said...

Ummm, priceless.

Minnesotans for Global Warming: Michael Mann is Coming to Town

"In honor of this historic visit there will be two chances to carry signs and welcome Mr. Mann to the Twin Cities.

What: Welcoming Committee Demonstration
Who: Concerned citizens, Minnesota Majority, Minnesota Free Market Institute, Minnesotans for Global Warming"


So, are those organisations made up of only one and a bit person each? It would fit a familiar pattern.

J Bowers said...

And from one of the protesters...

"...The president of the Geological Society actually came out and thanked us for being there, I think he was being sarcastic."

Anonymous said...

The picture of the train wreck featured here is also applicable to Daddy Roger Rabbit's continuing train wreck at SkepticalScience.

Anonymous said...

Eli, your friendly (but lying environmental scientist) is at it again:

http://oilprice.com/Environment/Global-Warming/Arctic-Ice-Melting-Rapidly-Yet-Global-Warming-is-Slowing.html

Have at it please.

The data disagree:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-Earth-continues-to-build-up-heat.html

David B. Benson said...

In the pix, which engine is named Judy and which is named Roger?

Anonymous said...

@Neven
"Watts is so proud that he's disinforming for free. Nevertheless, I'd still like to know how much is coming in through donations "

WTFUWT is supported by a federal business loan...

http://projects.propublica.org/recovery/item/20110101/302198

Harvey

Rattus Norvegicus said...

Harvey, I suspect the loan is for weathershop.com or one of his other associated businesses.

Anonymous said...

In keeping with the cornfield theme above

"Disagreein' Acres"
-- by Horatio Algeranon

"Disagreein' Acres is the place to be
Denier living is the life for me
Denial spreading out so far and wide
Keep Real Climate, just give me that contrary side"


"No, Real Climate’s where I’d rather blog
I’m allergic to the stupid fog
I just adore a climate science view
Darling I love you
But give me some physics too"

Da da duh da da
"The defiance!"

Da da duh da da
"The science!"

da da duh da da
"The attacks!"

da da duh da da
"The facts!"

"You are my wife"
"Goodbye RC life"

"Disagreein' Acres, we are there"

da da duh da da
duh duh

Anonymous said...

Daddy Roger Rabbit continues to play loose with the facts at skepticalscience.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/continued-lower-atmosphere-warming.html

dhogaza said...

This sequence from the latest Lacis thread at JC's is too good to keep buried deep in that thread:

WebHubTelescope replying to:

DocMartyn:
"Why should the [CO2]*[H2O] sum be logarithmic?"

Fortunately [H2O] hits a ceiling where it condenses into droplets.

DocMartyn's retort:
In reality or in the models?

-----

It doesn't rain and there are never any clouds in whatever universe DocMartyn lives in ...

Holly Stick said...

Horatio, that was especially brilliant! I used to watch that show all the time as a youngster.

David B. Benson said...

I still want to know the names of the locomotives in the pix...

Steve Bloom said...

I'm gonna say that's Judy on the right, slightly askew and venting steam.

Hank Roberts said...

>> Fortunately [H2O] hits a ceiling where it condenses into droplets.
> DocMartyn's retort:
> In reality or in the models?

See the modelers work _indoors_ where they have a ceiling, but reality is _outdoors_ ....

David B. Benson said...

Steve Bloom --- Right on!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the kind words, Holly.

Horatio also loved to watch Green Acres when he was young.

That and all the other "classics": Gilligan's island, I dream of Genie, Hogan's Heros, F Troop, the Munsters, The Adams' Family, etc

Those were the days, my friend.

What ever happend to the intellectual TV programs anyway?

willard said...

> Where's Willard [&c]?

Sometimes willard is busy.

A good way to submit suggestion is via this:

http://neverendingaudit.tumblr.com/submit

Another good way to reach him is to send him an email, which can be found on his site.

The third person voice is only used to honor Eli.

Former Skeptic said...

Point taken, Willard.

In further Pielkesport news, Daddy Roger appears to share the same statistical ineptitude as Junior. At least Daddy didn't resort to using Megan the Undergrad to help with his stats over at SkS...

Anonymous said...

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