Friday, August 19, 2011

Mitt Romney to win the Republican nomination

My political prediction accuracy rate has skyrocketed in recent years, from "worth your attention for the wrong reason" to "not worth your attention." We'll see if my Romney prediction keeps the trend moving.


I know Perry's kicking butt in Republican polls right now, just like Fred Thompson did four years ago when he jumped in. That doesn't matter much to me.

What does matter is the California Republican Party example from last year. Our state Republican Party is a lifesaver to America due to its incompetence - not just the usual Republican incompetence at state and federal level* in terms of policy, but also incompetent at winning elections. The national Republican Party would be much stronger if its biggest state party wasn't so terrible.

And even this state Republican Party, last year, chose its more electable candidate over the more true-blooded conservative. They didn't win, but they gave it what they could.

I think that's an indication of how Republicans will vote. They might distrust his religion, however much he tries to unite Republicans in hatred of the non-religious, but the Tea Partiers know that the anticolonial Kenyan-born socialist has to be taken out of office, and they'll go with their best shot, which isn't Perry.

Incidentally, it'll be interesting to see if Romney repeats his pattern of loaning his millions to his campaign instead of donating them, which would open a Romney Administration to legalized bribery as after-the-election donations flow right into his personal wallet. There oughta be a law.

And in other predictions, I stuck some cash back in the stock market last week. We'll see how that goes. I've been meaning to make a small bet against gold too, but have never done that before.

And as for Romney v Obama, let's just hope for a good economy.



*the Republicans I know in local office, by contrast, aren't too bad.

6 comments:

Steve Bloom said...

Teabaggers will go with their best shot? Can you point to some history on that?

wolfgang said...

>> make a small bet against gold too, but have never done that before.

The ticker symbol is GLL

dhogaza said...

"And in other predictions, I stuck some cash back in the stock market last week."

I put my 2011 traditional IRA (pre-tax dollars) contribution into the market after thursday's big drop. May've been better to wait a few days but this money can sit for about 10 years and I think my timing was OK. I'm diversified, as they say. We shall see ...

David B. Benson said...

The beginning of the end?

Michael Tobis said...

My prediction: only if Palin is in, Romney might get the nomination. If she isn't, it's definitely Perry. But I think she is in.

Brian said...

Steve - I guess there's contrary info from Delaware and Nevada, but California suggests they'll pick their most electable candidate.

Michael - I don't think she'll run. Too much work involved when it should just be given to her.