All climate is global.....
A theme of those that disrespect the IPCC and global climate models is that all climate is local and that the models are useless for discussing local events. Now come Kumar, Rajagopalan, Hoerling, Bates and Cane in Science, 314 (2006) 115 to show that indeed, local climate is global, or more accurately global effects on local climate can be controlling.
The monsoon is the controlling climate phenominon on the Indian subcontinent. From the abstract:
The 132-year historical rainfall record reveals that severe droughts in India have always been accompanied by El Niño events. Yet El Niño events have not always produced severe droughts. We show that El Niño events with the warmest sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific are more effective in focusing drought-producing subsidence over India than events with the warmest SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The physical basis for such different impacts is established using atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced with idealized tropical Pacific warmings.Changes in El Nino driven by global climate change will change the monsoon and thus the lives of everyone everywhere on the Indian subcontinent.
Isaih Berlin, a rather overrated mid-twentieth century philosopher, talked of two kinds of thinkers, the fox and the hedgehog. The fox knows many small things, the hedgehog only one big one. To abuse this political simile, greenhouse gas concentration is one big thing that moves the entire climate system in one direction. Local effects are many small things that move the system, in one direction and then the other. For local effects to overcome the push from the global greenhouse gas forcing all the local effects must go in one direction, but how likely is that? The central limit theorem is a good guide. Any sum of many small randomly distributed forcings will tend towards zero. Even if the local forcings are controlling locally (whatever that may mean), when you average them over the globe, the net effect will tend to zero if the local forcings are randomly distributed.