Monday, January 01, 2007

Have a hot new year.....

Well, Phil Jones and Jim Hanson extend you and yours the hottest new year ever. In several of the English papers, Phil is read to say

"El Niño makes the world warmer and we already have a warming trend that is increasing global temperatures by one to two tenths of a degrees celsius per decade. Together, they should make 2007 warmer than last year and it may even make the next 12 months the warmest year on record."

and Jim (you remember he's the one that a liver provider derided for predicting a strong El Nino this year) is not of the nothing happening, move on school

In an interview with The Independent, Dr Hansen predicted that global warming would run out of control and change the planet for ever unless rapid action is taken to reverse the rise in carbon emissions.

Dr Hansen said: "We just cannot burn all the fossil fuels in the ground. If we do, we will end up with a different planet.

"I mean a planet with no ice in the Arctic, and a planet where warming is so large that it's going to have a large effect in terms of sea level rises and the extinction of species."

Stoat had better air condition his burrow
Britain is on course for the warmest year since records began, according to figures from the Met Office and the University of East Anglia yesterday. Temperatures logged by weather stations across England reveal 2006 to have been unusually mild, with a mean temperature of 10.84C. The record beats the previous two joint hottest years of 1999 and 1990 by 0.21C....

The record year has astounded scientists. "What's phenomenal about this year is that some of these months have broken records by incredible amounts. This year it was 0.8C warmer in autumn and 0.5C warmer between April and October than the previous warmest years. Normally these records are broken by around one tenth of a degree or so," said Prof Jones.
But, of course, that's the Grauniad, so he will probably bring in gas heating. But two weeks ago, even the Telegraph had a headline

The hottest year since 1659 spells global doom

with a rather less global article on the hot year in Britain accompanied by a rather scary graphic

unless you like English wine. It kinda puts Eli in the mind of the old adage:

If everyone you know is running about
With loud scream and shout
And you are calm, cool and collected

Maybe there is something you don't know?

But this dear reader is merely a digression to point you to a wonderful resource, where you can watch El Nino turn up the global thermostat, the US National Weather Service ENSO page, with pictures. There is also a stunning presentation that can be downloaded. Here are two examples.


So friend, how lucky do you feel?


Gareth said...

Actually, Eli, when I saw that Telegraph graph I had to look carefully at what they'd done. Why didn't the graph show the same top ten warm years as the Met Office press release? In descending order: 2006; 1999; 1990; 1949; 2002; 1997; 1995; 2003; 1989; 2004. Rather persuasive of a current warm spell, that sequence. The Telegraph cannily chooses to graph the CET growing season (April to October) which is rather less persuasive as it cuts out several warm months - though it still, of course, shows '06 to be remarkable.
In this case, the graph is a subtle denial...

EliRabett said...

And me a trusting bunny. Oh well. Many thanks.

Anonymous said...

If the Telegraph was attempting to deny (subtely or otherwise), they failed.

Even their ranking system shows 4 out of the top ten temperatures occuring over the past 11 years.

How likely is it that that would be due to chance alone?

Anonymous said...

Gareth hath sharp eyeth! :)

stevesadlov said...

What has happened with Pacific SST's since November (I already know the answer, do you?).

EliRabett said...

Well Steve, Eli did recommend you follow the bunny trail to the ENSO page and click on the SST movie channel to see just that. BTW, the anomalies are more important than the SST

William M. Connolley said...

I read PJ's quote as fairly innocuous. 2007 "should be" warmer than 2006 due to El Nino - nothing much there; "may even" make 20007 warmest on record - "may even" is pretty weak.

It p*ss*d with rain all day today - better sharp clear frosts if GW is going to bring us only warm clouds :-( Not that I'd confuse weather and climate, mind you...

EliRabett said...

sok. It pissed with rain here all last night too, and then it was 23 C during the day in the first week of January. Everyone was out and about in shorts and cut off shirts. Same caveat.

Personally I'm interested in seeing how the El Nino progresses. Those predictions look all over the lot to me and it will make the difference.