Gore right again

Sadly, one often has to write that line, because Al Gore has become the Cassandra of the modern world, almost always right on policy and facts, but always ignored. The latest is the nine judge flap, well covered at Deltoid (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Eli has been aware of coral bleaching since the late 1980s, especially in the Caribbean, and well aware that a primary cause is warmer oceans with a well stirred mixture of other environmental stresses. Everything in ecology short of a bulldozer or major asteroid strike is a necessary but not sufficient condition. John Quiggin has returned from the Coral Reefs Future Forum and brings us word on the obvious

First, it’s noteworthy how opinion has solidified on the point that bleaching (corals expelling their associated symbiotic zooxanthellae ) is a response to higher temperature driven by general warming of the seas, rather than being due to locally specific causes. Al Gore’s claim to this effect, listed as an error in the recent court case that has been exciting the delusionists, has the full support of everyone I talked to there. Given the regular claim that any scientist who accepts the evidence on global warming must have been bought off by the prospect of grant money, let me observe that the problems we already had with coral reefs are enough to keep every marine biologist on the planet gainfully employed for life without inventing new ones.

This reminds Eli of a coal science conference he went to in the early 1990s, where everyone was, in Quiggin's words, staring at their shoes in gloom, having realized that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was a show stopper. Scientists are by nature realists. Belette and the judge might wish to amend

7. The IPCC reports predict that, if the temperature were to rise by 1-3C, there would be increased coral bleaching and widespread coral mortality unless corals could adapt or acclimatise, but while there is increasing evidence for climate change impacts on coral reefs the IPCC concluded that separating the impacts of climate change-related stresses from other stresses such as over-fishing and pollution was difficult.

Not my thing.

Not getting it

There appears to be a confusion about in the land that An Inconvenient Truth (AIT) was the long awaited prequel to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and as such should contain nothing that is not nailed down and written in stone. This opinion, held by some whose opinion Eli values has loosed a plague of dyspepsia, the results of which can be observed on the floor around here.

It is a film folks and it has a purpose, to bring the issue of climate change into public discourse and provide information about climate change to those without much previous information, or whose information has come from media owned by Rupert Murdoch. Anyone want to debate that AIT has not been successful in meeting that goal? Brian Schmidt can hold your bet for a nanosecond before he sends the money to Eli. Wonder why the film and Al Gore have been so heavily attacked. Hint: It ain't because a couple of scenes are technically imperfect, or because in some things Gore goes beyond the AR4 (which, as has been pointed out by several is the most penurious reading of the evidence) or even, horrors, exaggerate beyond what the particular sufferer from bad tummy believes.

The film was didactic and anyone who has taught beginners knows that you have to highlight, simplify, omit and stretch things to get the basic principles across. You go back later and fill in the details, but again, several of the illuminorati think that you provide the details up front, which accounts for the snoring.

Now what to say to those predicting the backlash driven by whatever errors there are in the film? Well, as Enrico Fermi said about ETs, where is it? As time passes, the increasingly accepted POV is that the film gets the big things right, has played a vital role in bringing the issue of climate change to the fore, and is bringing large numbers of people to the realization that action on climate change is needed asap. Public discussion of many of the issues has become more detailed and nuanced, but could only become so when a large number of people got the basic things which the film talked about. These are major accomplishments for which Gore deserves serious praise and for which he won the unprecedented Oscar/Nobel Peace Prize double. AIT combines art and policy.

So what is a perfectionist to do. Perhaps say things like, the film got the broad things right, but there is more depth that one needs for detailed understanding and here are some places where, if you have the time there is more to discuss. . .cue Kilimanjaro, Chad, Tonga, etc. . . . . Order matters. Start the discussion by pointing out that glaciers pretty much everywhere are retreating at rapid levels not previously seen. Then point out that local conditions can have an effect, but the general trend is driven by warmer temperatures and use Kilimanjaro as an example where a combination of things any one of which would not have been sufficient, INCLUDING global warming, has contributed to an extremely rapid decline

In closing, the response from Gore's group pretty much nails what a bunch of folks are too stubborn to acknowledge

The process of creating a 90-minute documentary from the original peer-reviewed science for an audience of moviegoers in the U.S. and around the world is complex. Vice President Gore has studied this issue for over 30 years. He regularly seeks the advice and feedback of scientists to understand the latest research. It's not easy, even for Ph.D.'s, to explain the concept of the "non-linearity" of the climate system even after decades in their respective fields. Imagine trying to translate that complicated scientific evidence into a clear and compelling message with only a single slide and 20 seconds to make your case. It isn't simple. In many cases, particular points had to be truncated and shortened from the original research. A movie inherently cannot reflect the depth of the science as the 3 volumes of the IPCC and other sources from which it draws. The original science cannot speak to moviegoers. And, as is not made clear by the Fact Checker, the judge stated clearly that he was not attempting to perform "an analysis of the scientific questions" in his ruling.

Cluster growth

Those whose memories extend back further than the latest Nobel award may recall that since at least 1960, cosmic rays have been repeatedly invoked as causing cloud formation and thus driving climate change. This conceit has been knocked down innumerable times but keeps arising. While on its face it is reasonable to think that ionization of molecules by cosmic rays will drive formation of small aerosols, there has been very little (and here Eli considerably exaggerates) on the relative importance of ionized aerosols and neutral ones.

Now comes Markku Kulmala, Ilona Riipinen, Mikko Sipilä, Hanna E. Manninen, Tuukka Petäjä, Heikki Junninen, Miikka Dal Maso, Genrik Mordas, Aadu Mirme, Marko Vana, Anne Hirsikko, Lauri Laakso, Roy M. Harrison, Ian Hanson, Carl Leung, Kari E. J. Lehtinen, Veli-Matti Kerminen in Science 318 (5847), 89 - 92 (2007) who have hiked into the Finnish forest sherpaing a large amount of new instrumentation including a Neutral Cluster–Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS), a UF-02proto Condensation Particle Counter and a Grimm nanoDMA and Faraday Cup Electrometer preceded by a unipolar charger and emerged to write on Toward Direct Measurement of Atmospheric Nucleation.

Atmospheric aerosol formation is known to occur almost all over the world, and the importance of these particles to climate and air quality has been recognized. Although almost all of the processes driving aerosol formation take place below a particle diameter of 3 nanometers, observations cover only larger particles. We introduce an instrumental setup to measure atmospheric concentrations of both neutral and charged nanometer-sized clusters. By applying the instruments in the field, we come to three important conclusions: (i) A pool of numerous neutral clusters in the sub–3 nanometer size range is continuously present; (ii) the processes initiating atmospheric aerosol formation start from particle sizes of 1.5 nanometers; and (iii) neutral nucleation dominates over the ion-induced mechanism, at least in boreal forest conditions.

If the rate of cosmic ray driven ionized nuclei formation is much too low to drive aerosol (and thus cloud) formation then cloud formation will not depend on cosmic ray fluxes. This result is from a forest, and will certainly be followed up on

Recently it was suggested that the formation of new atmospheric aerosol particles is connected with the existence of thermodynamically stable 1- to 2-nm clusters, formed in the atmosphere by some nucleation mechanism. From a physical standpoint, two very different cluster types in the sub–3 nm size range can be distinguished: charged (air ions or ion clusters) and neutral species. The existence of atmospheric ion clusters as small as 0.5 to 1 nm in diameter has been known for decades, and measurements with ion spectrometers, such as the Air Ion Spectrometer (AIS) and Balanced Scanning Mobility Analyzer (BSMA), have demonstrated that such clusters are present almost all the time. The production rates of ion clusters are, however, generally too low to explain the observed aerosol-formation rates.

In view of the insufficient numbers of ion clusters, the keyto understanding atmospheric aerosol formation is clearly the presence of neutral clusters.

Shellenberger and Lomborg

This important (and somewhat rambling) post by Sylvia Tognetti. There are many good links which you should be sure to read. And be sure to watch the video of the Colbert Report which she mentions


and follow the link to Judith Curry's comments on Lomborg in the Washington Post. Tognetti is cross with Lomborg

What I find particularly annoying are Lomborg's repeated accusations and mischaracterizations of the views of unnamed environmental groups or just plain "people." Environmental organizations and individual advocates, and scientists who also "want to put out the fire" are quite a diverse bunch who, unlike Lomborg - or Luntz, or even Nordhaus and Shellenburger, can disagree with each other in a number of ways without setting themselves apart from and attacking all "environmental groups" and who have been trying to have an honest and sensible conversation about how best to address the climate crisis in time to avoid a catastrophe.

Eli is cross with Lomborg, Nordhaus, Shellenburger, and others to be named later.

Stalinism, climate change denial and totalitarian wanna be's

Tim Lambert at Deltoid points to the blather from a mob of denialists. Eli notes that one of them, a Scott Johnson, lead off with this beauty:

Today's award to Al Gore and the IPCC "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change" fits in with a subset of cosmopolitan frauds, fakers, murderers, thieves, and no-accounts going back about twenty years.

The interesting thing here is the use of the word cosmopolitan. While most bunnies are not old enough to remember, Eli was himself a young, though very aware, coney during Stalin's last years. Lest you are wondering who these cosmopolitans are, Eli, who remembers some of the code words, is quite unhappy to fill you in:

Rootless cosmopolitan (Russian language: безродный космополит, "bezrodniy kosmopolit") was a Soviet euphemism during Joseph Stalin's anti-Semitic campaign of 1949–1953, which culminated in the "exposure" of the alleged Doctors' plot. The term "rootless cosmopolitan" referred to Jews; however, since a state policy of anti-Semitism conflicted with official Marxist principles such as the fraternity of peoples and proletarian internationalism, the term "rootless cosmopolitanism" was used as a code phrase

The right wing in the United States today seeks to emulate Stalin, even to using the same imagery and tactics. Konstantin Azadovskii and Boris Egorov in an essay published in the Journal of Cold War Studies describe the tactics used by the Stalinist regime

Over the next few years almost every area of science and culture was embroiled in grandiose campaigns to do away with "groveling before the West," "anti-patriotism" (later "anticosmopolitanism"), and generally anything "non- Russian."

One simply has to exchange American for Russian in the article to understand the tactics of the extreme right in the US

The demarcation of Soviet society into "Russian" and "non-Russian" as well as "patriots" and "antipatriots" sparked tension, caused neighbors to be suspicious of one another, and evoked the specter of the "enemy." Newly available evidence confirms that this is precisely what Stalin sought. Public fear of an "enemy" suited his goals in the Cold War. Unlike in World War II, when the main enemy was unmistakably Germany, the anti-Western/anti- cosmopolitan campaigns were directed against abstract foreign foes on the one hand (e.g., global imperialism,) and against specific groups and nations within the USSR on the other.

Simply do a global replace of "the war on terror" for global imperialism. We know who today's specific groups and nations are too.

The campaign in the late 1940s against internal enemies was intended to place the blame for the continued enormous hardships of Soviet life on "fascists," "American imperialists," and other "alien elements" and to keep the populace in a constant state of tension.

But inevitably all minorities will be targetted

Increasingly, as discussed below, the anticosmopolitan campaigns took on an overtly anti-Semitic tone. There is no longer any doubt that Stalin himself was directly responsible for this policy. In private conversations he had openly expressed his desire to eliminate "Jewish influence" and to help a "native" (i.e., non-Jewish) intelligentsia gain sway in the Soviet Union. ⁶ Stalin's daughter, Svetlana Allilueva, later acknowledged that the murder of the eminent Jewish actor Solomon Mikhoels in Minsk in January 1948 was undoubtedly sparked by "[her] father's well-known tendency to see 'Zionism' and plots everywhere." ⁷ Konstantin Simonov, one of the writers who had met with Stalin in 1947, recalls that "in the very last years of his life Stalin held a position on the Jewish question diametrically opposed to the position he espoused in public." ⁸ At Stalin's behest, Jewish writers, artists, and academics came under attack in 1949. Everything possible was done to "expose" them, remove them, and ultimately replace them with "real" Russians of known loyalty to the regime.

Scott Johnson and Powerline are indeed Stalin's true heirs.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee

has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 is to be shared, in two equal parts, between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.

Indications of changes in the earth's future climate must be treated with the utmost seriousness, and with the precautionary principle uppermost in our minds. Extensive climate changes may alter and threaten the living conditions of much of mankind. They may induce large-scale migration and lead to greater competition for the earth's resources. Such changes will place particularly heavy burdens on the world's most vulnerable countries. There may be increased danger of violent conflicts and wars, within and between states.

Through the scientific reports it has issued over the past two decades, the IPCC has created an ever-broader informed consensus about the connection between human activities and global warming. Thousands of scientists and officials from over one hundred countries have collaborated to achieve greater certainty as to the scale of the warming. Whereas in the 1980s global warming seemed to be merely an interesting hypothesis, the 1990s produced firmer evidence in its support. In the last few years, the connections have become even clearer and the consequences still more apparent.

Al Gore has for a long time been one of the world's leading environmentalist politicians. He became aware at an early stage of the climatic challenges the world is facing. His strong commitment, reflected in political activity, lectures, films and books, has strengthened the struggle against climate change. He is probably the single individual who has done most to create greater worldwide understanding of the measures that need to be adopted.

By awarding the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 to the IPCC and Al Gore, the Norwegian Nobel Committee is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus on the processes and decisions that appear to be necessary to protect the world’s future climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to the security of mankind. Action is necessary now, before climate change moves beyond man’s control.

Explosions:

If you google

Gore nobel 2007

seven hours after the prize was awarded you get 3,490.000 hits. Substitute IPCC for Gore and you get 398,000. That means there are probably ~3,000,000 denialist wingnut heads that have exploded. Please watch your step.

Congratulations

Congratulations to the IPCC and Al Gore for winning the Nobel Peace Prize. The award fully fulfills Nobel's intent as expressed in his will

"The whole of my remaining realizable estate shall be dealt with in the following way: the capital, invested in safe securities by my executors, shall constitute a fund, the interest on which shall be annually distributed in the form of prizes to those who, during the preceding year, shall have conferred the greatest benefit on mankind. The said interest shall be divided into five equal parts, which shall be apportioned as follows: one part to the person who shall have made the most important discovery or invention within the field of physics; one part to the person who shall have made the most important chemical discovery or improvement; one part to the person who shall have made the most important discovery within the domain of physiology or medicine; one part to the person who shall have produced in the field of literature the most outstanding work in an ideal direction; and one part to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses. The prizes for physics and chemistry shall be awarded by the Swedish Academy of Sciences; that for physiology or medical works by the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm; that for literature by the Academy in Stockholm, and that for champions of peace by a committee of five persons to be elected by the Norwegian Storting. It is my express wish that in awarding the prizes no consideration be given to the nationality of the candidates, but that the most worthy shall receive the prize, whether he be Scandinavian or not."

R.K. Pachauri"s statement on behalf of the IPCC

While receiving this news about the award of the Nobel Peace Prize for this year, I would like to pay tribute to the scientific community, who are the winners of this award. The experts and scientists are the backbone of the IPCC and they provide the knowledge, which has contributed to the success of the IPCC.

I would also like to thank the governments of the world who support and facilitate the work of the Panel. I hope, as the Chairman of the organisation, I am articulating the sentiments of the entire scientific community in acknowledging the enormous appreciation implied in the award of the Nobel Peace Prize and this would energize all the scientists and experts involved in the IPCC to do even more in the future.

Gore's statement

I am deeply honored to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. This award is even more meaningful because I have the honor of sharing it with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--the world’s pre-eminent scientific body devoted to improving our understanding of the climate crisis--a group whose members have worked tirelessly and selflessly for many years. We face a true planetary emergency. The climate crisis is not a political issue, it is a moral and spiritual challenge to all of humanity. It is also our greatest opportunity to lift global consciousness to a higher level.

My wife, Tipper, and I will donate 100 percent of the proceeds of the award to the Alliance for Climate Protection, a bipartisan non-profit organization that is devoted to changing public opinion in the U.S. and around the world about the urgency of solving the climate crisis.

Since Eli cannot resist irony, it is also interesting to note that

On November 27, 1895, Alfred Nobel signed his last will in Paris. When it was opened and read after his death, the will caused a lot of controversy both in Sweden and internationally, as Nobel had left much of his wealth for the establishment of a prize! His family opposed the establishment of the Nobel Prize, and the prize awarders he named refused to do what he had requested in his will. It was five years before the first Nobel Prize could be awarded in 1901.

A very thin reed

Tamino has an interesting post on Arctic and Antarctic ice extent. Now if you stare at the stuff long enough you realize that the maximum is pretty much always the same

but after a bit of thought, you realize that the Arctic is a closed ocean and it pretty much freezes completely over each year (PS the above only goes to 2000 and does not show the 2000 - 2007 decline. Tamino has the more recent information). Still, this is not completely the case, and analysis shows that even in the winter the ice area is declining.
we can learn even more by looking at maps of the maximum ice concentration from the National Sea Ice Data Center. The map on the left is from Feb 1979 and the one on the right from Feb 2007.
















The major differences are in the areas north of the Norway/Russian border. But when we look at the minimum extent from 2007 we see that it is the area between Alaska and Siberia that is relatively clear of ice.


So, we still need to decide whether our bet with Belette is in carrots or in pounds. Hmm, maybe we are looking at the wrong thing. During the autumn and winter the Arctic freezes over, but HOW THICK IS THE ICE. The thicker the ice, the more heat needed to melt the stuff in the summer. The thinner the less.

There are not very many measurements of ice thickness trends for obvious reasons. The best come from Rothrock at the University of Washington who analyzed data from nuclear submarine cruises (Al Gore played a key role in getting these released). Here is what he came up with.


What is a bunny to do? Well we will chew a few carrots and keep a close watch on how rapid the freeze is and try and figure out how deep.

If you want a piece of Nordhaus to go with your Stern

Nordhaus and Shellenberger will be on line at TPM Cafe discussing their new book, Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility. Joseph Romm has already cut a slice.

What do Michael Crichton, Bjørn Lomborg, Frank Luntz, George W Bush (and his climate/energy advisors) have in common with Michael Shellenberger & Ted Nordhaus? They all believe 1) new “breakthrough” technologies are needed to solve the global warming problem and 2) investing in such technology is far more important than regulating carbon. . .

Why two people who say they care about the environment, Shellenberger & Nordhaus (S&N), embrace it, I don’t understand. Their instant new bestseller, unhelpfully titled Break Through — has already been endorsed by Roger Pielke, Jr. and Gregg Easterbrook and The National Review — ’nuff said. You can read all the misinformation you want from them online in their landmark essay, "The Death of Environmentalism” and recent articles in The New Republic (subs. req’d) and Gristmill (here and here).

S&N simply don’t know what they’re talking about. Worse, their message plays right into the hands of those who counsel delay. For that reason, I will spend some time debunking them. Here is the most dangerous S&N falsehood, from TNR:

"Over the last ten years, a consensus has emerged among energy policy experts–one no less important than the consensus among climate scientists that carbon emissions are warming the earth. What’s needed, they say, are disruptive clean-energy technologies that achieve non-incremental breakthroughs in both price and performance."

Uhh, no. Energy policy is my field, and I have talked to virtually all of the leading energy policy experts over the past few years. A few believe as S&N do (mostly academics), but the majority do not – especially those who are actual energy practitioners or who have taken the time to educate themselves on climate science. Yes, they all want much higher funding for clean energy R&D — who doesn’t??? (other than the phantom “pain- and-sacrifice-loving” environmentalists that only S&N seem to have met).

But the energy practioners know that meaningful breakthroughs rarely if ever happen in energy (a key point I will return to in the next post). I can say that with very high confidence since I ran the federal office responsible for doing the vast majority of the research into new carbon-free technologies.

Nordhaus and Shellenberger get their pony.

Those who don't remember history are doomed to repeat it.

UPDATE: For those not coming from there, Real Climate has started the ball rolling, gathering together all comments on the latest OISM paper. Please add your contributions there.

The bunnies at the bar (Eli has discovered a nice new one within walking distance of the lab, with Hoegaarden, Guiness and Pilsner Urquell) were wondering why the Robinsons have once again taken pen in hand. The Robinsons, as you may recall, together with Sallie Balliunas and Willie Soon are the major authors in the genre of climate fiction and fantasy. Their mangnum faux pas was the center piece of the Oregon Deception Project. As we mentioned yesterday they have done it again, without Sallie, who may have some limits. Mark Chopping brings word in the comments to Eli's post on the Oregon Deception Project .

They are still at it! I received a packge today (October 5, 2007). You would think that they might do a little research before mailing -- clearly they have $$ to waste. I will have to spend some time thinking about what to return in the postage-paid envelope.

So, debunking this thing with as much publicity as possible becomes an urgent matter. Into the scribitorium young mice. Eli is going to have another beer

Before there was E&E there was JPANDS

The mice have spotted an undated version of the Soon Baliunas, Robinson and Robinson paper the Fred Seitz had mailed to accompany the OISM petition. This treasure appeared in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons under the name of the Robinsons, Art and Zach, father and son. How Idso of them. Sally and Willie are not on the paper, which leaves us with the hope that there was not enough money to pay them this time. If you miss them you can find the original at the Document Hotel a service of VulnerabilityNet.org

Eli has downloaded the paper and is reading the thing (for this you should pay me big time), but here he just wants to point out that before Energy and Environment took over the title of Journal of Denial, JPANDS was there. It is open source, because they have to give the thing away.

JPANDS is the journal of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, an outfit founded in 1943 to fight the evil of socialism and especially anything that threatened the income of US physicians, the older brother of the John Birch Society as it were. The executive director, Jane Orient, is a Clinical Lecturer in Medicine at the University of Arizona, Tucson, and (hold on tight) Professor of Medicine for the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine. It appears from the description on their site, that like the Robinsons she bats from both sides for the wingnuts that hide in Arthur and Zachary's barn:

Professor Orient serves as medical advisor for the Institute's projects involving human health and disease. She is author of numerous books, including Sapira's Art and Science of Bedside Diagnosis, a widely used primary physician's diagnostic reference work.

Dr. Orient is President of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness and of Physicians for Civil Defense. In those capacities, she has worked extensively on Institute projects on civil defense. She is also author of two books on grammar and spelling included in the Robinson home school curriculum and of several sections of the curriculum's course of study, especially examinations in reading comprehension, grammar, and vocabulary.

BTW she pulls down $150,000 per year from the AAPS for 25 hours/week of work according to their tax returns, teaches at the University Medical School and is Professor of Medicine at OISM. Good work if you can get it.

FWIW, the version of the OISM SBRR (Stoat Syndrome warning) at VN appears to actually have been published in an Inter-Research journal called Climate Research. Inter-Research is another odd little group, but at least on its face serious. Have to grep the sucker against the uroriginal.

The sparrow brings word. .

Aethon and his friend the sparrow (thanks Jack) took a day trip to NYC and came back looking ashen. The bunnies are taking over.

Some new textbooks on-line

The folks at ODU who brought you the Stratospheric Ozone Textbook are busy little bunnies and have three additional offerings,

• the Global Land Vegetation Textbook, all about land veggies and and the carbon cycle. Eli likes the chapter on carrots.
• a couple of lectures on determining Sea Circulation and Surface Temperature from Space,
• and two lectures on Polar Sea Ice Processes: the basic processes and how sea ice is measured from space).

Bankruptcy

Jennifer Marohasy sheds the usual climate croc** tears for Pat Michaels, no longer UVa Climatologist and Eli gets mixed into the middle of it. He tried to post over there, but the guardians are chewing over his entrails and it was such a good thing that it bears repeating

Just to be clear, Eli has always been in favor of the State Climatologist Program, and has always said that it should be a fully funded program run by NOAA. What we got now is a bunch of folk jackassing a different program in each state by scratching up support when and where they could find it. When UVa was forced to pony up the funding, they said no thanks, see you later. This has a lot more to do with the sorry state of base science funding in the US than with Pat Michaels.

If you want to see Eli's views on State Climatologists you can in comments 14, 24, 29, 34, 47, 52, 60 and 64 on RP Sr.'s blog (now just an archive). You will be impressed by the non support the program has among the climate croc denialist crowd. As the Rabett said:

However, there are many places where the State Climatologist was simply appointed by a university Department Chair, often someone who managed to scare up the funding. Very often there are ad hoc arrangements. To the extent that State Climatologists represent themselves as speaking for an agency of the state on a policy matter they are bound by the policy of the state.

and, among other things

As for the State Climatology program IEHO it was a bad mistake for NOAA to have defunded it in the seventies. AASC would be a very good thing if, together with NOAA, it results in a unified data reporting system leaving enough room for special state interests.

Lord the kid can write. You know, practically no one, including RPSr. was at all interested in fully funding the State Climatology offices except yours truly. NONE of the regulars, including RP hisself cared about putting the State Climatology Offices onto a permanent safe footing, which made it crystal clear that they wanted the issue and not the solution. Fast forward to the surface sites harrumphing and you see the same thing. These are climate crocs** folks.


**To paraphrase Steve Pastis about our crocs, they are proud members of Mora Fora Meea, a fraternity dedicated to the destruction of every one but them, the crocodiles are our blogging neighbors. Stupid, slow and barely articulate, these particular crocodiles are a disgrace to their species.

Aethon has a new name and a new food source

That's all folks

From ufobreakfast a remarkable description of dinner (ok breakfast) with Eli's favorite denialists. Since you really should go there and read the whole thing (it is only a riotous paragraph long), Rabett Run will tease you with the last two sentences

Pielke Jr. and Sr. took the opportunity to note that politicizing science was a bad idea and Ebell asked Komanoff why he hated poor people. Crichton urged Ebell to “lambast the son of a bitch”, which woke Peiser, who agreed that Tim Lambert was indeed a son of a bitch. The debate went downhill from there.

Jaw droppers

Part of the current art of journalism is to get others to say what you mean. Stoat's beloved Gruniad said

The conference, attended by more than 20 countries, including China, India, Britain, France and Germany, broke up with the US isolated, according to non-Americans attending. One of those present said even China and India, two of the biggest polluters, accepted that the voluntary approach proposed by the US was untenable and favoured binding measures, even though they disagreed with the Europeans over how this would be achieved.

A senior European diplomat attending the conference, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the meeting confirmed European suspicions that it had been intended by Mr Bush as a spoiler for a major UN conference on climate change in Bali in December.

"It was a total charade and has been exposed as a charade," the diplomat said. "I have never heard a more humiliating speech by a major leader. He [Mr Bush] was trying to present himself as a leader while showing no sign of leadership. It was a total failure."

The London Times put it this way

Speaking at his own climate-change conference in Washington, which European diplomats dismissed as a cynical attempt by the White House to derail UN efforts on a new global-warming accord, Mr Bush called on polluters to cut emissions, but only through voluntary steps.

Before Mr Bush spoke, John Ashton, the special representative on climate change for David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, expressed Britain’s growing dismay at Washington’s refusal to sign on to mandatory caps on greenhouse gas emissions.

And saying it with applause (Sudwest Radio Germany)

During his twenty minute long speech the US President received a round of spontaneous applause only once: when he mentioned the United Nations. "Today we have a new beginning to reduce greenhouse gases, strengthen out energy security, promote economic development and that we continue the climatic negotiations under the roof of the United Nations.”

The applause was a clear sign from the other participants. Even when President Bush was planning to sideline the United Nations with this conference - the representatives of the developing and industrialized countries obviously want no part of that.

Listen to the bunny (Part XIV)

A couple of years ago, when Tim Kaine did the two step about Pat Michaels' being the VA State Climatologist, and said, well a) this ain't any authorized state office and b) if UVa want Michaels they can have him , Eli remarked

Now it gets amusing. First, is UVa a state agency? Commonly state agencies are directly under the control of the executive. UVa is a state university, but recently it has become essentially independent under the Virginia Restructured Higher Education Financial and Administrative Operations Act

Second, and most important, is the clear implication that the position of State Climatologist ain't no more gonna be a line in the STATE budget, and that if UVa wants Michaels to continue in the position, they are going to have to come up with the $.

Well, pretty clearly UVa has decided not at any price. Steve Bloom in a comment at Real Climate points to an article in the Daily Press

Michaels, 57, called his resignation a sad result of the fact that his state climatologist funding had become politicized, compromising his academic freedom.

The Rabett also explained

If someone is called a Research Professor or an Adjunct Professor, you can bet that the University is not paying his or her salary. In many cases the person works at a research institution/national lab, etc. and has the title so that he or she can supervise student research. In many other cases the person brings grants and contracts into the University from which his or her salary is paid. Since Research Professors of the later type occupy lab/office space there is not much of a margin when their grants run out. The rule is that when the support goes so does the Research Professor (I know you can find the occasional counterexample, but these are the general rules).

Pat knows very well that he was in a soft money position, and when the external funding goes the clock runs very fast. And, oh yes, live by political funding decisions and die by them

In 1994, Allen restored a cut of more than $100,000 to Michaels' office that had been proposed by former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder. Eight years later, as a senator, Allen rescued Michaels' office from other proposed cuts that Michaels said would have wiped out his entire funding.

Better a good Czech than a bad one

Bloggers know that Lubos Motl has lip locked to the current President of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Klaus, who knows not very much about climate, but does know what he thinks about it. Everyone know about Vaclav Havel, former President of Czechia and someone who by example has acquired great moral authority. Havel writes today in the NY Times under the headline, Our Moral Footprint:

OVER the past few years the questions have been asked ever more forcefully whether global climate changes occur in natural cycles or not, to what degree we humans contribute to them, what threats stem from them and what can be done to prevent them. Scientific studies demonstrate that any changes in temperature and energy cycles on a planetary scale could mean danger for all people on all continents.

It is also obvious from published research that human activity is a cause of change; we just don’t know how big its contribution is. Is it necessary to know that to the last percentage point, though? By waiting for incontrovertible precision, aren’t we simply wasting time when we could be taking measures that are relatively painless compared to those we would have to adopt after further delays?

Havel's views on climate change are that of someone who worries about the future, but is not sure of the scope or the solutions to the challenges of global climate change

I’m skeptical that a problem as complex as climate change can be solved by any single branch of science. Technological measures and regulations are important, but equally important is support for education, ecological training and ethics — a consciousness of the commonality of all living beings and an emphasis on shared responsibility.

This is a complex and rich statement which everyone should read and think about. Of those who blog on climate, perhaps it is closest to Michael Tobis' point of view, the moral case Havel sets forth for action approaches that of the Stern Report.

Stealing Michaels Cheese: In the comments (and this is somewhat truncated) Michael Tobis summarizes his view on this:

So what do I think? I thank you for what amounts to a challenge to summarize it. This is what I have managed.

A long view and a better capacity to identify real expertise are skills that to a great extent we in the economically dominant societies once had, but have lost. That is sad but it offers a way out without new cultural innovation. We simply need to recover declining skills.

We need to work on restoring the collective intellectual capacity, and the respect for the future, that we recently had, that has been in precipitous decline over my lifetime. This is nowhere near the innovation that a widespread ecological ethic would be.

Restoring the network of trust from those who think to those who decide is no small order. The deciders (pardon the expression) need better skills in whom to trust, and the thinkers need to be more trustworthy.

Unfortunately, substantial amounts of decay and corruption have set in
on both sides. This is a tall order, but it seems to me at the core of our decline and the best hope of our recovery.

So I don't mean to disagree with Havel, but I don't want that represented as the core of what I am trying to advocate.

I think the crucial social component of avoiding calamity is about competence and trust, about those offering advice reliably deserving trust and about those needing advice reliably awarding trust to those that deserve it.

Thanks for the mention, though. I'm flattered to be mentioned in the same sentence as Vaclav Havel.

Pearls before swine

Speed and a few other things kill

Down in the Comments on a recent thread we see the appearance of the golden oldie about conservation.

"First, "conservation" need not mean living in cold dark houses and not driving."

That is exactly what it means for the poor. If conservation is enforced by regulations, higher prices are inevitable, and the poor suffer the most from higher prices.

Conservation sounds noble, and the intention is well placed, but look at history.

What we are going after today is the old standard about increasing auto mileage

For example, CAFE standards were enacted in order to encourage conservation. The result was the K-Car and other light cars the were demonstrated to be less safe. It doesn't "have" to be this way, but that was the reality. and we get a new one

but in denial land there is always something new under the sun

Another example are towns in Africa that are not permitted to have electricity unless it is green powered. Unless someone can afford the outrageously expensive solar power, they are forced to live without electricity. It doesn't have to be that way, but that is the reality.

which got stomped on pretty good by the mice and co. The first step in any such thing is to demand some evidence other than the floss between the ears of the denialist

Hank Roberts(AKA Evil Hank) said at 6:43 AM...

Cite please? It's only an example if it has a citation/source in fact.

Anonymouse 6:54 AM<>I think you have a very narrow view of "conservation" in mind that is not very realistic -- and certainly not what I am referring to.

What I am referring to is energy efficiency improvements that conserve energy (eg, gasoline for cars) and that benefit all consumers -- including the poor.

Anonymouse 7:17 said...

Some villages can't have electricity unless it is "green powered" (eg, solar, wind, water). There is no other choice!

I think some of the people making such comments live in a giant bubble -- totally divorced from reality.

They talk about Conservation "hurting the poor" but it never occurs to them that saving energy (through more efficiet cars, refrigerators, houses, lights, etc) means saving money.

This helps the poor the most, since they spend a higher percentage of their income on stuff like gas for their car and electricity for their house.

and

In case it was not clear above, "There is no other choice" because there are no transmission lines into some villages.

To which I might add trucking in gas or other fuel presupposes roads, carrying it in on someones back does not always work. Being able to drop in a solar generator or a wind powered one makes sense. Isolated farms in the US had a windmill as a power source before the Rural Electrification Program (thank you New Deal, take it and shove it Libertarians) brought electricity to rural areas in the US. You can see the seed of this attack in the recent mouth foaming about treadle pumps. For someone who does not have a pump a good human powered one is a great thing. The project is good for the farmers who get them and good for the environment. It meets a gold standard.

It is indeed a rich thing to choke down, the crocodile's care for the poor from those who know that greed is good for them and bad for you.

However, to paraphrase Steve Pastis about our crocs, they are proud members of Mora Fora Meea, a fraternity dedicated to the destruction of every one but them, the crocodiles are our blogging neighbors. Stupid, slow and barely articulate, these particular crocodiles are a disgrace to their species.

But, as the author says, Eli digresses.

The picture above shows the results of a 40 mph crash against a barrier by a light Mini Cooper and a heavy F-150. The F-150 comes out worse, among other things, because it is heavier. Of course in a crash of an F-150 against a Mini, those F-150 would be at less risk, principally because the things ride so high, like moose in Montana, the thing rides up on smaller cars.**

If you looked at the deaths/distance driven (US) you would see a continuing decline after the introduction of CAFE mileage standards in 1975. You are a lot safer in a new small car than in one of the big old 1960s models. Some details can be found in the CDC report 1900-1999 Motor-Vehicle Safety: A 20th Century Public Health Achievement. Quibbles and more references can be found in Death and injury from motor vehicle crashes: a public health failure, not an achievement E D Richter, et al. who think that more, not less could have been done. Richter et al. list the things that have contributed to improved safety

Box 1: Countermeasures

1. Increased mass/volume
   
2. Better seat belt designs/child restraints
3. Improved fireproofing of fuel tanks
   
4. Seat belt laws
   
5. Burstproof latches
   
6. Collapsible steering wheels
   
7. Shatterproof window panes
   
8. Padded dashboards
   
9. Non-protrusive accessories
   
10. Reinforced passenger cabins
    
11. Rear underride absorbers for trucks
    
12. Energy absorbing fixtures
13. Airbags
    
14. Drink driving legislation
    
15. Truck safety standards
    
16. Updated road design standards
    
17. Congestion, lower speeds, and risk

Eli notes that only one has to do with mass, and that is density which is mass/volume, not mass, and even so that is only one of 17 issues. Safe small cars are being built today. They are a lot safer than what we had twenty and thirty years ago. If we could get the "mine is bigger than yours" gang off the road it would be safer still. Delanda est SUVs. Mass plays a role, but Richter, et al are big fans of congestion

We believe the universality of the strong inverse association with congestion. Everywhere, in the United States, Europe, and thegreat megacities of Asia, Latin America, and Africa, most of the increase in VMT [Vehicle Miles Travelled] and congestion occurs in and around large cities and their surrounding areas during rush hours. These are periods when mean and maximum traffic speeds approach standstill, and case fatality falls, as does Deaths/VMT—without the help of any public health policy or countermeasures. Much of the credit for the public health "achievement" comes from the failure to provide rapid travel during peak hours of use for most vehicles. Thus VMT is massively inflated. No one gets killed in a traffic jam

and they continue

In road injury epidemiology, kinetic energy is the pathogen, and risk for injury and severity are predicted by the combined effect of mass and speed derived from Newtonian laws of motion and energy. Crash, injury, and death tolls rise in proportion to the first, second, and fourth power respectively of the ratio of increase in average speeds of travel. A 10% increase in travel speeds produces a 43% rise in case fatality. Case fatality—the probability of death—among occupants of light vehicles colliding with heavy vehicles is extremely high. These empirically validated relationships mean that small increases in speed translate into large increases in deaths. We affirm that in recent years in the United States the fall in baseline risks with increased congestion has concealed the full contribution of raised speed limits and travel speeds to increasing deaths between risk and exposure is mainly due to increases in traffic

For those of you who can't do the math, kinetic energy goes as the square of the speed and the linearly with mass. Delanda est SUVs. Especially the big ones. Enforce speed limits. Nothing survives a full on with an 18 wheeler. If we have smaller, better built cars, and enforce speed we can move towards Sweden's announced goal of no traffic fatalities.

UPDATE: Steve Sadlov raises the useful point that at ~$3/US gallon the cost of gasoline is already so high that CAFE standards are not needed. While it is true this is already having an effect, the price of gasoline in the US is still half of that in the civilised world

** Moose are exceptionally stupid and big animals. They know they are the biggest damn thing in the forest and have known this for millenia. Like the hedgehog, for most situations knowing one thing well is enough, but when change comes it pays to be able to change. Standing in the middle of the road, when they hear a car coming at 100 mph, they turn and face the noise with their heads down. The auto hits their body, the neck and horns are just the right size to crash through the windshield and impale the driver. Montanans, yearning to drive fast eliminated speed limits, but had to put them back for nightime driving when the carnage mounted. Moose are big enough to see in the daylight, but all moose are gray in the dark.

Without comment

"NRG Energy, the US power generator, said on Monday it was filing the first application to build a new nuclear plant in the US in 29 years.

In seeking to build two nuclear power stations in Texas, NRG said it was taking a leading role in moving US electrical generation to cost-effective power that does not contribute to global climate change. "It is a new day for energy in America," said David Crane, NRG's president and chief executive."

and

"WASHINGTON, Sept. 24 — An independent power producer expects to ask the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Tuesday for permission to build two nuclear reactors at a site 90 miles southwest of Houston, the first time since the mid-1970’s that a company has sought approval to build a nuclear power plant in the United States.

The company, NRG Energy, based in Princeton, N.J., is seeking to build a General Electric model now used in Japan and under construction in Taiwan but untried in the United States. The announcement Tuesday will be a decision to seek a combined construction and operating license under a new process meant to avoid the long delays and cost overruns in the last round of nuclear construction, but the company has not yet ordered the reactors. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission estimates the cost of obtaining a license at $24 million, but some industry experts say it could easily be more. The plant itself would run into the billions of dollars.

Still, the application, the first of what the commission anticipates will be about two dozen in the next few months, is a milestone for the industry. More than 100 reactor projects were canceled in the 1970s and ’80s, some abandoned in late stages of construction. Revived interest in nuclear power is being driven by a combination of strong growth in demand for electricity, high prices for natural gas and the potential for taxes on carbon dioxide, which would make coal use more expensive, experts said.

By filing first, NRG is likely to get first consideration from the commission. Not having seen an application in a generation, the commission has been hiring for the task but has also warned that its capacity to deal with the work involved is not unlimited."

Learn to listen carefully young bunnies

Aaron Swartz has a strong article on the manipulation of misinformation about DDT by, among other friends of Rabett Run, Roger Bate. It has also appeared at FAIR. Now as many know Roger is the fellow who pitched fighting malaria to various tobacco companies as a way of discrediting the World Health Organization and distracting it from a soon to be launched anti smoking campaign. Among the gems that Aaron dug out were

In an interview, Bate said that his motivation had changed after years of working on the issue of malaria. "I think my position has mellowed, perhaps with age," he told Extra!. "[I have] gone from being probably historically anti-environmental to being very much pro-combating malaria now." He pointed to the work he'd done making sure money to fight malaria was spent properly, including a study he co-authored in the respected medical journal the Lancet (7/15/06) on dishonest accounting at the World Bank. He insisted that he wasn't simply pro-DDT, but instead was willing to support whatever the evidence showed worked. And he flatly denied that AFM had ever received money from tobacco, pharmaceutical or chemical companies.

Emphasis added. Eli's original post pointed to a damning letter from Bate to Dan Greenberg of Phillip Morris in which he made the pitch, but just as important to what we are talking about here are the marginal notations by Greenberg which have not previously been remarked on (maybe because the handwriting is so bad).

The lab bunnies have put this under microscope. The one on the right says

Malaria out of ESEF ~ only recently {unclear} donation and only for ESEF in malaria Earmarked funds or CCSI - Cambridge Center for Study of Institutions

Africa Fighting Malaria may not have gotten the money, but it sure looks like Bate did through ESEF or CCSI (ESEF folded about that time) and whether they passed it on and used it to found AFM is the real question.

With the like of Bate, one has to be precise.

Business as usual

The National Sea Ice Data Center has an animation showing how the sea ice minimum extent has changed from 1979 - 2006. The 2007 extent is shown on the right. Click on the image for the animation.


A true successor to Bambi meets Godzilla.

There goes another one . . .

We have all been treated to endless reps of CO2 is a response to global warming and not a cause, and I know because that is what happened as the Earth came out of the ice age. This, in spite of the fact that we know increasing CO2 can be both a cause of warming as it is today, when the gas is released by burning long buried fossil fuels and a positive feedback as gas is released from warming oceans and from soils. The accepted current guess for the lag is 800 + 600 yrs from Monnin, E., et al. "Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination, Science, 291, 112–114, 2001. Such measurements are made using ice cores and critically depend on coordinating the age of the ice and the age of the gas in the ice. They differ in position and must be put on the same scale

Now comes a new core, Epica, and a new bunch L. Loulergue, F. Parrenin, T. Blunier, J.-M. Barnola, R. Spahni, A. Schilt, G. Raisbeck, and J. Chappellaz in Climate of the Past, 3, 527–540, 2007 to write on New constraints on the gas age-ice age difference along the EPICA ice cores, 0–50 kyr.

Here we bring new constraints to test a firn densification model applied to the EPICA Dome C (EDC) site for the last 50 kyr, by linking the EDC ice core to the EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) ice core, both in the ice phase (using volcanic horizons) and in the gas phase (using rapid methane variations). We also use the structured 10Be peak, occurring 41 kyr before present (BP) and due to the low geomagnetic field associated with the Laschamp event, to experimentally estimate the 1ag during this event. Our results seem to reveal an overestimate of the lag by the firn densification model during the last glacial period at EDC. Tests with different accumulation rates and temperature scenarios do not entirely resolve this discrepancy. Although the exact reasons for the lag overestimate at the two EPICA sites remain unknown at this stage, we conclude that current densification model simulations have deficits under glacial climatic conditions. Whatever the cause of the 1age overestimate, our finding suggests that the phase relationship between CO2 and EDC temperature previously inferred for the start of the last deglaciation (lag of CO2 by 800±600 yr) seems to be overestimated.

They are loath to speculate about where this will leave the lag, even when encouraged to do so by the referees (unheard of behavior), but it is clear that this question is being looked into intensively. If Eli HAD to guess, he would say that there should be a lag based on first principles, but would not be much surprised if it shrunk down from the previous 800 year estimate, substantially.

This paper appears to have evaded everyone's radar.

UPDATE: Fergus informs me that William and he discussed this on Stoat when it appeared, As importantly Steve Bloom points to another interesting paper that Hank Roberts finds scary

IIRC the 800 years had been thought to mesh nicely with the turnover of the oceans, but there's a fresh paper in JGR that claims more like century-scale turnover. If correct that would mesh well with the EPICA result, but unless I'm missing something it would have some rather more important implications for present calculations of ocean heat content, the time needed to reach global warming equilibrium and the time needed for CO2 saturation.

Eli has found an open access version of the paper Radiocarbon-based circulation age of the world oceans by Katsumi Matsumoto.

Ethon checks out the air conditioning. . .

UPDATE: As Boris says in the comments:

Paul is right on here, which explains why the denialist side is so interested in pushing this nonsense. It doesn't matter if the trends aren't changed at all by microsite issues, doesn't matter at all that satellite data matches the surface trends extremely well, even for the US region. What matters is that we have a propaganda tool to mislead the public, the same way we mislead the public with the increases of high altitude glaciers, the lag between temp and CO2 in the ice record, erasing Hansen's graphs, and on and on and on and on...

UPDATE: BCL has some rather good stuff on the ways of the righteous and scientifical or at least how to do the job right. Curiously, very similar to what has been recommended here.

Ethon had been looking over the real estate ads at surface stations and having seen some promising properties he went out west checking out the Class 5 stations for one with a nice nesting place, A/C and perhaps a hibachi to cook the daily liver on. On the way back he dropped in at NOAA and ran into TC Peterson in the cafeteria. Tom was happily munching on his chopped liver sandwich (believe me folks it is ALL chopped liver).

Ethon and TC fell to nattering about the seminal paper by Davey and Pielke which, with little exaggeration, could be pointed to as the seed for all the heavy breathing. They did a bit of surfing and indeed did find the smoking BBQ at the defunct Climate Science blog in a comment from Roger Sr.

Thanks Dave for your comment. Their adjustments do not address the issue of whether unrecognized systematic biases are still retained due to poor microclimate exposure and its change over time. Our recommendation is that each station used to construct the USA and global land-surface temperature data record be photographed, in the manner presented in http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-274.pdf. As other examples of sites, we are compiling photographs on our web site (e.g., see http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/Alaskacoopsites.php) (with more to come).

Davey and Pielke took their Brownies and photographed some stations out in the mountain west. Out of the 10 stations that posed, six were in the USHCN network, two were "good" and four "bad". TC, being essentially the source of all homogenizations guy at NOAA (don't take this too literally) had examined the photos that Davey and Pielke relied on and looked at the data. As he said

Essentially there are two competing hypotheses about the effects of poor siting that yield very different predictions. The first hypothesis is that homogeneity adjustment methodologies would account for changes to locations with poor siting. If the homogeneity adjustments are appropriately accounting for all artificial changes at the stations, then an adjusted temperature time series from the poorly sited stations should be very similar to the time series from the stations with good siting. The trends from the poorly sited stations may be a little higher or a little lower, but they should still be about the same. This hypothesis would, of course, also hold if poor siting did not cause a bias in the original data and the homogenization did not introduce any biases. The second hypothesis is that poor current station siting produces an artificial bias in the temperature record that is not being addressed by homogeneity adjustments. While Davey and Pielke suggested that poor siting–induced bias could be positive or negative,

a point that appears to have been lost at Surface Stations although not Rabett Run as attested by some mouth foaming comments to our Cool Station of the Day series

the underlying concern about the effects of potential siting biases is whether a significant portion of the recent warming indicated by the U.S. and global temperature record could be due to this bias rather than climate change. Therefore, the second hypothesis predicts that homogeneity-adjusted temperature trends at the poorly sited station would be significantly different than the temperature trends at the stations with good siting, and that these differences would most likely be that the poorly sited stations are warming relative to nearby stations with good siting

Peterson ran the numbers, and in the words of Anthony Watt

But hey, they can "fix" the problem with math and adjustments to the temperature record.

which, of course is what Peterson found: that the trends for the good, the bad and the not very nice looking were the same after homogenization.
Now, of course, our friends in Boulder were not about to take this without some harumphing

I assumed the Peterson article would also be published with a Reply from Christopher Davey and I. However, despite my requests to permit us to prepare a Reply to the Peterson article, it was decided that there was new information in the Peterson article. My request was refused. I was written that
“In the case of your 2005 article, Jeff Rosenfeld felt that since your work raised significant (though potentially justified) criticism of an observing network that the entire scientific community relies upon and would impact the public confidence in those networks, that a companion comment was appropriate to provide additional perspective. This does not appear to be the case with Peterson’s current article, which is simply providing scientific evidence to clarify arguments for alternative hypotheses.” [Jeff Rosenfeld is Editor-in-Chief of the Bulletin of the American Meterological Society].
Since the Peterson article claims to resolve the problem, yet we have serious issues with his contribution, it would seem that the same approach of two articles would have been permitted. Nonetheless, this was not allowed. This imbalance in the ability to present climate science viewpoints unfortunately permeates the scientific literature including that of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS).
We have, therefore, written an article for BAMS in response to the Peterson article, and it is authored and titled
Pielke Sr., R.A, C. Davey, J. Angel, O. Bliss, M. Cai, N. Doesken, S. Fall, K. Gallo, R. Hale, K.G. Hubbard, H. Li, X. Lin, J. Nielsen-Gammon, D. Niyogi, and S. Raman, 2006: Documentation of bias associated with surface temperature measurement sites. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., submitted. [it should not yet be cited or reproduced as it is currently under review; comments to us on the manuscript, however, are welcome].

Eli, being a RTFR kinda Rabett went and RTFR, which has been published now. The interesting part is the conclusion

As Davey and Pielke (2005) documented and Peterson (2006) acknowledges, several USHCN stations are poorly sited or have siting conditions that change over time. These deficiencies in the observations should be rectified at the source, that is, by correcting the location and then ensuring high-quality data that are locally and, in aggregate, regionally representative. Station micrometeorology produces complex effects on surface temperatures, however, and, as we show in this paper, attempting to correct the errors with existing adjustment methods artificially forces toward regional representativeness and cannot be expected to recover all of the trend information that would have been obtained locally from a well-sited station.

Translated from the we refuse to admit we were wrong this means that homogeneity adjustments do recover regional (and thus continental) and global trends BUT, of course local information is lost and it would be better to have better stations. Let the perfect be the enemy of the useful and tally-ho.

It could be when, not how much

Simon Donner has a nice post up describing the complexities governing sea ice extent, how other factors besides temperatures are important. Some time ago, Eli pointed out that not only was sea ice declining, but the time of the minimum was moving substantially later in September. With all the emphasis on sea ice extent (guilty, guilty, guilty) it is useful to return to that point
and take a look at how the Arctic is doing today
The later the minimum, the later the freeze up, the later the freeze up, the less time to grow new ice, and the easier to reach a minimum next year. Eli may up his bet with Stoat. 60 carrots??

UPDATE: Via the Scotsman comes the news from the NSIDC that sea ice reached its minimum in 2007 between the 16th and 20th of September. This leaves Eli in a bit of a quandry. If the day of the minimum went beyond the 20th, the Rabett was going to pile on his bet with Wm Connolley. OTOH, if it came earlier, he was going to gracefully retire to the carrot patch. The current strategy is to wait for a few days and see how steep or shallow the rebuilding is compared to future years. Advice o mice?

Overview of current sea ice conditions
Sea ice extent now stands at 4.18 million square kilometers (1.61 million square miles). This represents an increase of 50,000 square kilometers (19,000 square miles) compared to the value of 4.13 million square kilometers (1.59 million square miles) five-day running mean extent, observed on September 16, which appears to be the 2007 minimum.