Hot Times
NOAA, in their conference call to discuss weather in November, put down a pretty strong marker that 2014 is going to be the hottest year on record. It's actually a proposition, and Eli is not one to want an ear full of cider, so the Bunny recommends going out there and putting a few cans of shinola on it with your friendly local climate change deniers, whom, as every lagomorph knows can't tell shit from shinola.
Anyhow, Jake Crouch from NOAA points out that right now we are at the 6th warmest land temperature anomaly of 1.71 oF (don't you just hate, hate customary units, but it is the US) for Jan - November and the record warmest ocean temperature anomaly of 1.03 oF. This, since the oceans are about 2/3 of the surface, makes for the warmest Jan-Nov period with an anomaly of 1.22 oF.
Based on the NOAA record, for 2014 NOT to be the warmest ever, December would have to be the 21st coolest December on file.
However, since the oceans have a ginourmous thermal inertia, and it is the warmth in the oceans that is driving the record temperatures, that is, not very likely, as in bet that it won't happen.
Another part of the briefing dealt with the issue of whether an El Nino is developing in the Pacific, and the answer was, who knows, driven mostly by the observation that the whole damn tropical Pacific is hot, there is no gradient between the western and eastern parts to drive the trade winds. This may indeed be a Strange New Climate with the heat from the oceans just rising to the surface, not your fathers kid.
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16 comments:
For those using modern units that's 0,68 degrees C. So what's the anomaly baseline used by NOAA?
Fernando,
Read the box at the bottom of the graphic.
Warm oceans put lots of water vapor in the air which is a great greenhouse gas.
If AGW was a Rottweiler, sensible heat in the atmosphere would be the fleas on its tail.
LB, the box doesn't specify the anomaly reference period used in the discussion. If you can, could you hang a carrot in the room to see if somebody wakes up and provides the answer?
What is so unclear about the text in the box? Did you quit reading halfway through?
Fernando
Do yourself a favour for once. Don't try to deny the instrumental record. This isn't WUWT.
Ask yourself how many years were there in the C20th? When did that century start and finish? Etc.
"Warm oceans put lots of water vapor in the air which is a great greenhouse gas."
True, but the atmosphere has to first warm up or all that extra water vapor won't hang around for very long. It can't act as a greenhouse gas if it doesn't stay in the atmosphere.
lolcatstevens, I have no assurance there's a link between the text above the box and the comment in the box. So is the temperature anomaly referenced to an average? Yes. What's the actual average? I want to look up a graph instead of looking at a map. I want to see what's the data source to see what the trend looks like.
I ask because I look at data sources from both sides of the climate wars. Both tend to bs a bit about it. Given my current status as a middle of the road mediator I like to absorb a diverse data flow.
By the way, did you read my Global Warming 101 short course? I bet you will love it.
Here, look at this link. It has a temperature graph. That's what I'm looking for.
http://21stcenturysocialcritic.blogspot.com.es/2014/12/global-warming-101-short-course.html#more
Fernando,
My apologies. I didn't know Google was so far above your competency.
Given my current status as a middle of the road mediator
Oh my sides.
Jim,
The atmosphere is the "Gate Keeper", "Tax Collector", and "Pay Master" not the store of heat. The gate keeper does not need to be rich to guard the king's treasure.
The Earth's hoard of heat is in its oceans - mostly as the heat absorbed by melting ice.
Very small changes in the atmosphere can, over time make huge changes in the heat content of the oceans. As the oceans warm, they will put more water vapor (latent heat) in the atmosphere. (The king pays his servants.)
You may not see increasing water vapor in the atmosphere as a problem yet, but it is an effect to watch, because as you point out, water vapor does not stay in the atmosphere for long. More water vapor in the atmosphere leads to 2 issues and effects. More warming! And, more water coming out of the atmosphere (which events may exceed engineering basis of design for infrastructure, e.g., flooding).
As long as significant ice remains, the sensible heat of the atmosphere is not a good indicator of the total heat in the ocean system, and hence the Earth system. This is one reason that the 2007 Arctic sea ice retreat was so important. It was a visible pointer the to fact heat in the oceans is increasing.
Aaron, I think you misunderstood my comment, and I perhaps misunderstood yours. A lot of people talk about H2O as a greenhouse gas and forget or don't even know that it can't permanently increase in the atmosphere without first warming the atmosphere, and that is what I was addressing.
We don't disagree about most of what you just wrote, except that the heat isn't mostly going into melting ice, as there's a lot more abyssal water to heat than there is ice to melt. Also, there was a lot more to the 2007 drop in Arctic sea ice than just warming sea water.
"Given my current status as a middle of the road mediator
Oh my sides.
Yeah, BBD, that one was a real corker.
Ferdinand if you had read the first link you would have seen where the graphic came from.
Fernando, lurk intelligently, or risk dismissal as a lunk .
The goddam graph means what it says.
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