Sunday, December 21, 2014

What We Have Here Is a Failure To Communicate

So Willard Tony still thinks it's a cool idea to give Tim Ball the keys, and Tim, well Tim has some limits.  The latest is that the first results are in from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, OCO-2 the first having crashed and burnt on launch. 



This would be no surprise to anyone who has been following the literature or the results from the orbiting SCIAMACHY instrument, but, to do the Sou thing,Tim Ball is dancing in the street
Preliminary evidence essentially exonerates humans as the source of CO2. That is a narrative unacceptable to the IPCC and all their media supporters. As a result the BBC, whose lack of journalistic integrity and political bias, was exposed in the emails leaked from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), are obliged to spin the evidence. One comment in the article says,

It is possible to see spikes, too, on the eastern seaboard of the US and over China. These probably include the additional emissions of CO2 that come from industrialisation. 
This misinformation is contradicted by the lower than average levels over the UK and Europe. Another comment on Figure 1 says, 
Also apparent are the higher concentrations over South America and southern Africa. These are likely the result of biomass burning in these regions. 
This misinformation is a contradiction because the area of southern Africa is mostly grasslands and desert. How does that generate “biomass burning”? Figure 2 shows a map of the climate zones of Africa, ironically, it appears in an article pleading for financial help to deal with climate change.

The claim that South American levels are due to forest burning is ridiculous. At any given time, only a small area of the forest is being burned. It was higher in the past because countries like Brazil were encouraged to provide tax incentives to farmers to clear land, with help from the World Bank. The idea was that a country must have a solid agricultural base for a viable economy. The practice was stopped when the environmental finger of rainforest destruction was pointed.
So thence commences the waving of hands for which Tim and Willard Tony are famous, but, dear reader, Eli has a question.

Biomass burning tends to be associated with fires and one of the things that satellites can do is look down and map fires, so what does a map of fires between October 12 and 26 (roughly the same as the first OCO results show?  Not too hard to find.  NASA has a real time web applet to map the fire data from Terra and Aqua and what do you know, Tim has balled it all up again


 Of course, if like the SCIAMACHY team, you monitor for a decade or so (2002-2012) why yes, Virginia, you can see the anthropogenic CO2


Eli knows, all that anthropogenic CO2 is from the beer brewers in Belgium

18 comments:

JohnMashey said...

SCIAMACHY was similarly abused by Murry Salby, who was then channeled by Rupert Darwall, as per Cheshire Claim: Rupert Darwall Copies Satellite CO2 Nonsense From Murry Salby.

For whatever reason, satellite abuse seems a common behavior among some.

Lars Karlsson said...

Ball: "This misinformation is a contradiction because the area of southern Africa is mostly grasslands and desert. How does that generate “biomass burning”?"

Grasslands remain grasslands because of grazing and burning. Grasses tend to be very good at coming back after fires.

Aaron said...

Too many folks think that a superficial knowledge of some space technology is as good or better than a deep knowledge of real science. And, some folks that really do understand space science, think that being able to look down on a ecosystem is better than actually understanding it.

However, little critters in the mud can do things that space technologists and even space scientists cannot not understand.

A grassland can act as a both a seasonal source and a seasonal sink. One month of data does not indicate the net effect averaged over a few years.

Russell Seitz said...

"Eli knows, all that anthropogenic CO2 is from the beer brewers in Belgium "

American emissions were below normal last week because all our beer was being absorbed by geophysicists.

cRR Kampen said...

"Eli knows, all that anthropogenic CO2 is from the beer brewers in Belgium "

Also, my breath (Gouda, Holland). Sure I eat coal, much like that climate revisionist's antilope that ran past couple of years ago.

Fernando Leanme said...

Check this computer model simulation:

http://www.nasa.gov/press/goddard/2014/november/nasa-computer-model-provides-a-new-portrait-of-carbon-dioxide/#.VJmCCYAN8

It's not necessarily biomass burning causing the changes. This simulation shows huge seasonal releases. Anthropogenic effects are only one factor (this is simple to see in the Mauna Loa record).

EliRabett said...

Check the aerosol and CO column densities which are also a function of burning.

Fernando Leanme said...

Eli, so I take you think most of the anthropogenic co2 emissions are from burning forests and grass? Or this isn't anthropogenic? Just Wood burning on its own? I'm confused. I don't think any of the comments are that meaningful. And that darned NASA satellite sure looks lovely ke it has a goofy sensor. Did you check its readings versus surface measurements?

EliRabett said...

You lose

BBD said...

Fernando

Anthropogenic effects are only one factor (this is simple to see in the Mauna Loa record).

Yes but you are conflating seasonal variability with the long-term anthropogenic trend.

Time-scale matters.

Brandon R. Gates said...

Bbbbbut BBD, everybody knows anthro CO2 flux is only 3% of natural fluxes. Cheese.

Russell Seitz said...

CO2 is up because million horsepower submarines are scaring the plankton- --

Just ask Lord Monckton.

Jim Eager said...

"Bbbbbut BBD, everybody knows anthro CO2 flux is only 3% of natural fluxes."

Easily dealt with by pointing out the natural fluxes run in both direction, while the anthro CO2 flux only runs in one.

Um, er, except that only works for those who can balance their check book. For the rest...

Brandon R. Gates said...

Jim, you'd think it would be that simple. I had one fellow tell me recently (yesterday) that my use of "equilibrium" in this context was weasel-wording for "averaging". Two cardinal sins in one. [sigh]

Brandon R. Gates said...

Russell,

A plankton stew in every pot, a flying car in every garage and a PWR2 in every basement. Hip hip huzzah!

Jeffrey Davis said...

Since the issue with CO2 is the increase in atmospheric totals, was the mere presence of CO2 sources other than human sources supposed to be the Ace of Trumps?

EliRabett said...

Yes

hypergeometric said...

I think someone should start up a campaign urging Rights For Satellites, since it is uncivilized to abuse the little moons.