Ray Pierrehumbert's Tyndall Lecture AGU 2012
Lecture starts at 4:10 after the upcoming movie ads
Eli is happy to direct your attention to Ray Pierrehumbert's Tyndall lecture. Eli was a named bunny in several of the talks, but this one was personally important to him in making clear how the bunny (or at least somebunny) mentored Ray. You will of course, need to watch the presentation to find out exactly how.
Eli is happy to direct your attention to Ray Pierrehumbert's Tyndall lecture. Eli was a named bunny in several of the talks, but this one was personally important to him in making clear how the bunny (or at least somebunny) mentored Ray. You will of course, need to watch the presentation to find out exactly how.
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22 comments:
This Rat recommends that all the bunnies listen to the lecture. It really is a model of clear communication.
jyyh rec'd the lecture to his FB friends, after soaking them with parametriztion of clouds and chemistry of CCD lecture ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5MU5URolwE ) and the 'predictability in chaos' aka. 'how to catch tipping points before they happen' Lorentz lecture ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tpGUPMIPwE&feature=player_detailpage#t=1101s ) Horrible me, horrible maths, horrible chemistry. Not at all exact like protons and multiples of elementary charges in a mocecular orbital.
Sounds like it's time to re-amp the spam filter.
Let me add that I understand, after watching Pierrehumbert's performance, that Eli's ears haven been nicely stroked there. Perhaps he felt a little tickle under the tail as well?
The Sagan lecture is worth listening to as well.
--cynicus
Yes, but Richard Feynman.
willard --- That is overly obscure for some of us.
I think it was Pauli who said some paper was so bad it wasn't even wrong.
The bit about Richard Lindzen and CLIMAP is hilarious.
Ray may find himself audited for that.
It was Wolfgang Pauli, not Richard Feynman, whose first reaction to a new theory was to denounced it as "not even wrong".
Delusional.
Pauli, no, just not willing to suffer fools. The big change this year is that a lot of the climate scientists have run out of patience with the fools.
Richard Feynman didn't suffer fools either.
Yes, you're all right that it was Pauli not Feynman who first maked the "not even wrong" remark. I'm pretty sure Feynman also used the remark on various occasions, and I probably encountered it via Feynman, but it was Pauli who originated it. Somebody remarked to me that Feynman is the Mark Twain of science -- so quotable that all quotes get attributed to him.
Now go find out who it was who really first said "It's hard to predict -- especially the future!" But actually, it turns out it's pretty hard to predict the past as well.
--raypierre
"Jousting with Jesters"
-- by Horatio Algeranon (with inspiration from Jim Hansen)
Jousting with jesters
Is never wise
The jester pesters
And never dies.
Not predicting, especially the future as such, but there's a similar Richardson quote about the difficulty of predicting the weather in the future that I didn't note when I read it, and have since not been able to find. Unfortunately he took it too much to heart.
He also got too hung up on time's arrow and didn't suggest to his peers that it would be good to aid predicting the past weather, too.
- Adam
Bah, sorry I meant Fitzroy, not Richardson. Always got those two Bracknell wings muddled up.
- Adam
There is a certain poetry to the prose of Feynmann--he often worked very hard to get it that way.
Pauli was the great wit of his generation of physicists. Wolfgang Pauli once referred to his fellow physicist Wolfgang Paul as his real counterpart.
One time, in speaking of the outspoken atheism of Paul Dirac, he said: "Our colleague Professor Dirac also has a religion. It's chief tenet is that there is no god and Dirac is his messenger."
His razor sharp wit and general lack of social convention made for an interesting history of quotes.
"It's hard to predict -- especially the future!". This was Niels Bohr I think?
"Prediction is easy"
-- by Horatio Algeranon
It's hard to remember
Especially the past
Who said what?
And first? or last?
Easier to predict
How future occurs
Where everything happens
In the Multiverse
Ray PierreHumbert is someone I just admire unreservedly. His communication on realclimate is amazing - sympathetic and understanding, methodical, and infinitely patient.
And yes, a clear and lucid explainer.
It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future
Posted on October 20, 2013
Niels Bohr? Samuel Goldwyn? Robert Storm Petersen? Yogi Berra? Mark Twain? Nostradamus? Anonymous?
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/
Probably Paul Krugman in his NYRB on Nordhaus. Start here. But Eli also likes Thomas Knutson on Pat Michaels
"Michaels et al. (2005, hereafter MKL) recall the question of Ellsaesser: “Should we trust models or observations?” In reply we note that if we had observations of the future, we obviously would trust them more than models, but unfortunately observations of the future are not available at this time."
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