tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post9153267221557690290..comments2024-03-18T03:27:18.777-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Ray Pierrehumbert's Tyndall Lecture AGU 2012EliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-12895310500867450052013-11-14T13:10:45.981-05:002013-11-14T13:10:45.981-05:00Probably Paul Krugman in his NYRB on Nordhaus. St...Probably Paul Krugman in his NYRB on Nordhaus. <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2013/10/some-people-are-just-lucky.html" rel="nofollow">Start here</a>. But Eli also likes <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2007/01/thomas-knutson-is-very-dangerous-guy.html" rel="nofollow">Thomas Knutson</a> on Pat Michaels<br /><br />"Michaels et al. (2005, hereafter MKL) recall the question of Ellsaesser: “Should we trust models or observations?” In reply we note that if we had observations of the future, we obviously would trust them more than models, but unfortunately observations of the future are not available at this time."<br /><br />EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-20217740003374802952013-11-14T12:31:01.420-05:002013-11-14T12:31:01.420-05:00It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially Abo...It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future<br />Posted on October 20, 2013 <br /><br />Niels Bohr? Samuel Goldwyn? Robert Storm Petersen? Yogi Berra? Mark Twain? Nostradamus? Anonymous?<br /><br />http://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/CapitalClimatehttp://capitalclimate.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-12452813061347051302012-12-12T12:12:52.838-05:002012-12-12T12:12:52.838-05:00Ray PierreHumbert is someone I just admire unreser...Ray PierreHumbert is someone I just admire unreservedly. His communication on realclimate is amazing - sympathetic and understanding, methodical, and infinitely patient.<br /><br />And yes, a clear and lucid explainer.Marion Delgadohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09493068399042656060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-916129583389567092012-12-12T11:56:24.145-05:002012-12-12T11:56:24.145-05:00"Prediction is easy"
-- by Horatio Alge..."Prediction is easy" <br />-- by Horatio Algeranon<br /><br /><br />It's hard to remember<br />Especially the past<br />Who said what?<br />And first? or last?<br /><br />Easier to predict<br />How future occurs<br />Where everything happens<br />In the Multiverse<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-73401710344374946002012-12-12T10:17:45.245-05:002012-12-12T10:17:45.245-05:00"It's hard to predict -- especially the f..."It's hard to predict -- especially the future!". This was Niels Bohr I think?Montynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-10509293741036617322012-12-12T05:57:27.995-05:002012-12-12T05:57:27.995-05:00There is a certain poetry to the prose of Feynmann...There is a certain poetry to the prose of Feynmann--he often worked very hard to get it that way. <br /><br />Pauli was the great wit of his generation of physicists. Wolfgang Pauli once referred to his fellow physicist Wolfgang Paul as his real counterpart.<br /><br />One time, in speaking of the outspoken atheism of Paul Dirac, he said: "Our colleague Professor Dirac also has a religion. It's chief tenet is that there is no god and Dirac is his messenger."<br /><br />His razor sharp wit and general lack of social convention made for an interesting history of quotes.a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-69850255462583111972012-12-12T04:44:36.896-05:002012-12-12T04:44:36.896-05:00Bah, sorry I meant Fitzroy, not Richardson. Always...Bah, sorry I meant Fitzroy, not Richardson. Always got those two Bracknell wings muddled up.<br /><br />- AdamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42105719429909601782012-12-12T04:41:27.529-05:002012-12-12T04:41:27.529-05:00Not predicting, especially the future as such, but...Not predicting, especially the future as such, but there's a similar Richardson quote about the difficulty of predicting the weather in the future that I didn't note when I read it, and have since not been able to find. Unfortunately he took it too much to heart.<br /><br />He also got too hung up on time's arrow and didn't suggest to his peers that it would be good to aid predicting the past weather, too.<br /><br />- AdamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-85427224078235507152012-12-11T22:51:50.973-05:002012-12-11T22:51:50.973-05:00"Jousting with Jesters"
-- by Horatio Al..."Jousting with Jesters"<br />-- by Horatio Algeranon (with inspiration from Jim Hansen)<br /><br />Jousting with jesters<br />Is never wise<br />The jester pesters<br />And never dies.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-12897799233359105162012-12-11T22:13:33.964-05:002012-12-11T22:13:33.964-05:00Yes, you're all right that it was Pauli not Fe...Yes, you're all right that it was Pauli not Feynman who first maked the "not even wrong" remark. I'm pretty sure Feynman also used the remark on various occasions, and I probably encountered it via Feynman, but it was Pauli who originated it. Somebody remarked to me that Feynman is the Mark Twain of science -- so quotable that all quotes get attributed to him. <br /><br />Now go find out who it was who really first said "It's hard to predict -- especially the future!" But actually, it turns out it's pretty hard to predict the past as well. <br /><br />--raypierreraypierrehttp://planetaryclimatebook.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-15833676172894790702012-12-11T21:14:28.246-05:002012-12-11T21:14:28.246-05:00Richard Feynman didn't suffer fools either.Richard Feynman didn't suffer fools either.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42117160194109069592012-12-11T20:06:38.891-05:002012-12-11T20:06:38.891-05:00Pauli, no, just not willing to suffer fools. The ...Pauli, no, just not willing to suffer fools. The big change this year is that a lot of the climate scientists have run out of patience with the fools.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-41297702811400794652012-12-11T20:04:15.206-05:002012-12-11T20:04:15.206-05:00Delusional.Delusional.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-27995015981795880712012-12-11T17:34:20.806-05:002012-12-11T17:34:20.806-05:00It was Wolfgang Pauli, not Richard Feynman, whose ...It was Wolfgang Pauli, not Richard Feynman, whose first reaction to a new theory was to denounced it as "not even wrong". <br /><br />Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09575837647825433144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-7665998400473703482012-12-11T17:27:04.684-05:002012-12-11T17:27:04.684-05:00The bit about Richard Lindzen and CLIMAP is hilari...The bit about Richard Lindzen and CLIMAP is hilarious.<br /><br />Ray may find himself audited for that.Tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-23023524822878543182012-12-11T06:36:25.887-05:002012-12-11T06:36:25.887-05:00I think it was Pauli who said some paper was so ba...I think it was Pauli who said some paper was so bad it wasn't even wrong.Montynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-27573391594992274512012-12-10T22:22:38.334-05:002012-12-10T22:22:38.334-05:00willard --- That is overly obscure for some of us....<b>willard</b> --- That is overly obscure for some of us.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-61523339486393246342012-12-10T20:33:31.161-05:002012-12-10T20:33:31.161-05:00Yes, but Richard Feynman.Yes, but Richard Feynman.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-3319345974114545972012-12-10T16:56:40.571-05:002012-12-10T16:56:40.571-05:00Let me add that I understand, after watching Pierr...Let me add that I understand, after watching Pierrehumbert's performance, that Eli's ears haven been nicely stroked there. Perhaps he felt a little tickle under the tail as well?<br /><br />The Sagan lecture is worth listening to as well.<br /><br />--cynicusAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-26796442174636456532012-12-10T14:45:21.483-05:002012-12-10T14:45:21.483-05:00Sounds like it's time to re-amp the spam filte...Sounds like it's time to re-amp the spam filter.Jeffrey Davishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966839006518642902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-81039768894094956362012-12-09T22:59:23.624-05:002012-12-09T22:59:23.624-05:00jyyh rec'd the lecture to his FB friends, afte...jyyh rec'd the lecture to his FB friends, after soaking them with parametriztion of clouds and chemistry of CCD lecture ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5MU5URolwE ) and the 'predictability in chaos' aka. 'how to catch tipping points before they happen' Lorentz lecture ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tpGUPMIPwE&feature=player_detailpage#t=1101s ) Horrible me, horrible maths, horrible chemistry. Not at all exact like protons and multiples of elementary charges in a mocecular orbital.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-74460288182687019532012-12-09T21:27:45.583-05:002012-12-09T21:27:45.583-05:00This Rat recommends that all the bunnies listen to...This Rat recommends that all the bunnies listen to the lecture. It really is a model of clear communication.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.com