Wednesday, May 30, 2012

A Very Modest Proposal

Jonathan Adler, who usually blogs at the Volokh Conspiracy, has a guest post at Megan McArdles Atlantic blog.  Now McArdle is your usual run of the mill lunatarian who think nothing through and knows really less but thinks she knows more.  Glib is a good one word description.  Adler is more constrained by the world.

In his post, Adler describes what he calls a conservatives approach to climate change.  The construction is interesting.  He starts by accepting the usual suspects case, praising Pat Michaels and friends analysis, but then does the reverse English
The position espoused by Michaels, Balling and most (but not all) skeptics is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, but it is more of a nuisance than a catastrophe.  Some even argue that the net effect of climate change on the world will be positive, due to increased growing seasons, less severe winters and the like.  Were I a utilitarian, and if I placed substantial faith in such cost-benefit studies, I might find these arguments convincing, but I'm not and I don't.  Even if these skeptics are correct that global warming will not be catastrophic and that the net effects in the near-to-medium term might be positive, there are still reasons to act.
Accepting, for the sake of argument, that the skeptics' assessment of the science is correct, global warming will produce effects that should be of concern. 
and he has suggestions for fixes
First, the federal government should support technology inducement prizes to encourage the development of commercially viable low-carbon technologies.  For reasons I explain in this paper, such prizes are likely to yield better results at lower cost than traditional government R&D funding or regulatory mandates that seek to spur innovation.

Second, the federal government should seek to identify and reduce barriers to the development and deployment of alternative technologies.  Whatever the economic merits of the Cape Wind project, it is ridiculous that it could take over a decade for a project such as this to go through the state and federal permitting processes.  This sort of regulatory environment discourages private investment in these technologies.

Third, I believe the United States should adopt a revenue-neutral carbon tax, much like that suggested by NASA's James Hansen.  Specifically, the federal government should impose a price on carbon that is fully rebated to taxpayers on a per capita basis. . 
Fourth and finally, it is important to recognize that some degree of warming is already hard-wired into the system.  This means that some degree of adaptation will be necessary.
Yet as above, recognizing the reality of global warming need not justify increased federal control over the private economy.  There are many market-oriented steps that can, and should, be taken to increase the country's ability to adapt to climate change including, as I've argued here and here, increased reliance upon water markets, particularly in the western United States where the effects of climate change on water supplies are likely to be most severe.
Eli does not agree with much of Adler's background material, and personally thinks that regulation can be both more efficient and less expensive, but those are things that can be debated.  If nothing else the Bunny would like to see Barry Bickmore discuss this with Adler.

5 comments:

Pinko Punko said...

This part is some serious BS:

"The position espoused by Michaels, Balling and most (but not all) skeptics is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, but it is more of a nuisance than a catastrophe."

Nice use of the word "most"- could this be quantified in anyway? What about the natural cycle crowd? What about it's not currently warming?

Sad.

Brian said...

Pinko - Adler is probably referring to the "most" skeptics that he pays attention to.

I've been following Prof. Adler for quite a few years:

http://backseatdriving.blogspot.com/search?q=adler&max-results=20&by-date=true

I'll stand by what I wrote last fall, that he's gradually coming over from the Dark Side. I think these changes are tentative and reversible, but represent tiny amounts of progress.

Anonymous said...

Pinko,

"Nice use of the word "most"- could this be quantified in anyway?"

We could ask the same of the reputed risks of global warming.

The author says "there are still reasons to act." but doesn't offer any.
And also states "global warming will produce effects that should be of concern."
but fails to enumerate them much less quantify either the likelihood or extent.

Wakldo

John said...

Modest Mr Adler admonishes: "recognizing the reality of global warming need not justify increased federal control over the private economy."

Given such phenomena as, for example, 1) "the farm bill," 2) Medicare part D, 3) fossil fuel industry subsidies, 4) bottomless, big-bank bailouts, 5) private medical insurance mandates, 6) perpetual war for access to resources, apparently Mr Adler is poorly informed, selectively blind or simply in favor of massive federal subsidy of the major players of the private economy -- as distinct from "federal control."

Let me note, ALARMINGLY and also logically, that if our species is destroyed [[ See Quack [sic] Soup, previous comments ]], as a [ "whoEVER could have foreseen?" ] side-effect of the realization of the fond hopes of those [0.001%] who "rightfully" control said economy, then then there will be NO economy.

Better oblivion for all than any attempt to control the species' economic-political sociopaths.

John Puma

EliRabett said...

You have to wonder how indirect Adler is, to the extent that the preambular nod to Michaels et al is a beard for his audience to shelter under, or a real belief.