Ethon, at semester break, flew back from his aerie in the Front Range with a neat puzzler. Roger is all upset because the evidence for increased weather and climate change related damage keeps accumulating. The boy would make a great WW I general. The damage is starting to emerge from the noise and he is still stuck in the past.
The political scientist formerly known as Prometheus hit the International Disaster Data Base and brought the purple graph, showing how the number of floods in West Africa have increased a lot in the past three decades. P thought that the effect was caused by under-reporting in the past and therefore Munich Re was talking trash. Not unreasonable thought Eli, although Ethon was looking under the table for cards that had been dropped on the floor. To satisfy the skeptical bird the bunny went to the data base and thought, hmm, under-reporting might not be such a bad problem in Western Europe, so he ran the figures. However, as Steven Leacock would say, this has nothing to do with our bright and sunny puzzler** but is merely blog filler.
This week's puzzler comes from Pieter Vermeesch at UC London. The data comes from the US Geological Survey and shows the number of earthquakes in the ten year period starting in 1999 whose magnitude exceeded 4 on each day of the week.
The average bunny would tell you that the day of the week has nothing to do with the frequency of non-domestic earthquakes. True, Eli knows from experience that propinquity makes for large weekend blow ups with Ms. Rabett. Still Mother Earth IS NOT THAT KIND OF LADY.
That's gonna be the null hypothesis anyhow, and there are six degrees of freedom.
Rabett Labs hitched up the IBM computators bought cheap from the Manhattan Project,
shanghaied recruited a bunch of young volunteers, and found that for this case Pearson's chi-square statistic is 94, which means that the probability of the null hypothesis being true is 4.5 x 10-18 or about as likely as Ethon going vegan. (OK this is a blog, Eli exaggerates. Make something of it.)
Eli will provide the link with the solution in a day or so. The question is why is the result wrong. It ain't the math.
**IV. -- Gertrude the Governess: or, Simple Seventeen_
_Synopsis of Previous Chapters:_
_There are no Previous Chapters._
IT was a wild and stormy night on the West Coast of Scotland. This, however, is immaterial to the present story, as the scene is not laid in the West of Scotland. For the matter of that the weather was just as bad on the East Coast of Ireland.
But the scene of this narrative is laid in the South of England and takes place in and around Kmotacentinum Towers (pronounced as if written Monckton Taws), the seat of Lord Kmotacent (pronounced as if written Monkton) and his faithful servant Escrushium (pronounced as if written Scrotum).
But it is not necessary to pronounce either of these names in reading them.
(Thanks to project Gutenberg for the stories on line:)