Singing a different tune....
About a week ago, before the work tsumani hit, Eli posted on an EOS article by Shaopeng Huang in which it was shown that global warming has pushed a few zetajoules underground. (RTFR, this is the Rabett's blog and he will be obscure if he wants to.)
Today, as a by blow in Gavin Schmidt's deconstruction of Monckton's folly Grant dragged Huang in. It seems that Monkton used a figure from a 1997 study of Huang's, but here it is useful to compare some figures, the first being from Huang, Pollack and Shen, GRL 24 (1997) 1947
and this (below) is what we see in Monckton's magnum crocus
a blow up of the the small peak on the right of Huang, Pollacks and Shen's figure. Note that the three curves are for Baysean inversions with different priors, the null being that there is no climate signal. RTFR Before going on to deconstruct the this and that, we pause to look at the 500 year reconstruction published by the gang of Pollack, Huang and Shen in Science 282 (1998) 789:
Observant numerates might notice that the two figures are "not in agreement"TM . The reconstruction immediately above was one of a series of very similar reconstruction published by the same group, the latest of which appeared in GRL 31 (2004) L13205.
FWIW, the slope of the curve appears to be heading deeper at 1500 in the newer work. Huang's borehole reconstructions imply very large climate sensitivity, much larger than other reconstructions and larger that other model and observational estimates
Huang, Pollack and Shen (1997) held that
These surface temperature histroies shown in Figure 2 (ed: the first figure in this post) indicate a long-term warming from the colder conditions of the last glacial epoch of the late Pleistocene, peaking at temperatures above present-day in the interval 4000-8000 years ago. For several thousand years in the early Holocene the temperature averaged some 0.2 - 0.6 K above present day. Following this warm interval a cooling ensued in which the temperature dropped to near or below present day, reaching a minimum in the interval 1,300-1600 years before present. A warming follwed, yielding temperatures that averaged 0.1-0.5 K above present day in the interval 500-1000 years ago. From the peak of this warm period some 700-800 years ago, the temperature declined until about 200 years ago, reaching a minimum of about 0.2 to 0.7 K below present day, at which time a warming commenced that continues to the present.Their published 1500-2000 borehole temperature reconstructions are absolutely incompatible with this scenerio, what is more, they are also in disagreement with the various bent, broken or distorted hockey sticks. Mann, Rutherford, Bradley, Hughes and Keimeg took this on in 2003, (for those without access see comments in EOS I and EOS II from which we got this mother of all spaghetti graphs.) The Huang, Pollack reconstruction lies below almost all the others earlier that 1800). MRBHK pointed out that the borehole data could be falsified by landcover changes, e.g., snow, soil humidity, etc. and reconciled the borehole data with the other proxy reconstructions. (RTFR if you really want to know).
At a minimum one of the two thoughts in Huang and Pollacks minds is wrong, and maybe both.