Saturday, February 01, 2020

Josh Marshall and my guts vs. the polls

Several months back, Nate Silver tweeted that he was looking forward to using data and a model to predict the Democratic primary rather then rely on his gut, because his gut is "full of sh*t". Some of the response tweets took this as an admission of intellectual weakness, telling you much more about those people than about Silver.

This brings us to Josh Marshall's excellent post yesterday, stating that he doesn't view Sanders as a strong candidate in the general election, while acknowledging that the data clearly shows Biden as the strongest Dem matched against Trump, Bernie next, and the others further behind:

As I’ve told you again and again, people discount polls at their peril....Public polls consistently show that Joe Biden runs better against Donald Trump than any other candidate. This has consistently been the case going back to early 2019. It has never changed.....The entire range from strongest to weakest isn’t great. We’re talking usually half dozen percentage points between the weakest and the strongest.....Sanders consistently rates weaker vis a vis Trump than Biden, but not by a lot. He does better than Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris, et al. That’s been consistent. So what’s the basis of my thinking he’d be a very weak general election candidate? In a sense I am doing what I tell others to avoid: sticking to my assumptions notwithstanding extensive polling data which throws them into doubt.
Marshall goes on to give his reasoning against Bernie, which isn't bad as far as it goes: that Bernie's socialist positioning will weaken him in the general campaign, and he hasn't been exposed to attacks because the Republicans are focusing on Biden (and Hillary before Biden).

Yes, and I agree, but I doubt that's the entirety of Josh's feeling. I think the sense that Bernie's not the strongest includes other factors, conscious or otherwise, to create a gut feeling.

Which leads to where I disagree with Josh, because he agrees with the data suggesting that Biden is the strongest candidate:
And you might further say, if early general election polls are subject to change after negative campaigning, why are you so confident Biden is in fact the strongest? My answer is twofold. First, Biden’s run in many campaigns against Republicans; he’s run on national tickets; and his positions are much more popular with the electorate at large. Second, you kind of have a good point.

There’s no dramatic flourish I have in my pocket to resolve this. I’ve presented it that way purposely. 
In this I'm worse than Josh, fighting the data not just on Bernie but also on Biden, whose age in particular is going to be a major focus of Republicans if/once it's clear that Dems are running with him instead of someone younger than Trump.

Here's the one way though that I'm less gutsy than Josh, when he says of it all, "This is my very strong assumption even though it is only partly born out by polling data." I'm not sure how much it's all borne out by polling data, as he acknowledges it mostly contradicts it, and I'll just say that none of my opinions on Bernie or Biden are strong assumptions, just my best guess (and I'll acknowledge this best guess is even less confident about Biden than it is about Bernie).

In December I tweeted that Warren was my nominee in the liberal lane, and Klobuchar among the moderates. NYTimes then copied me (I assume) although unlike the Times, I went on to give the overall nod to Warren. I think both Warren and Klobuchar would make stronger candidates even though the data suggest otherwise. I think. Maybe.

Second-last word to Josh:
Now, let me make a couple points which are likely clear but about which I want to leave no doubt. I would and will support Sanders and frankly any of the leading Democratic nominees. Anyone who opposes Trump and can’t say the same is a fraud. I would also say that those out there saying Sanders “can’t win” are being silly. I think he’s a much weaker candidate. But those polls – which have consistently shown him defeating Trump for a year – aren’t meaningless. Many polls this year have shown that more than 50% of voters say they will never vote for Donald Trump no matter what. That’s not a guarantee. But it’s a pretty solid place for any Trump opponent to start.

For me, beating Trump is close to everything. Or perhaps better to say it is the sine qua non without which nothing else is possible.
Final note: I've moved a bit on Klobuchar from last year. She does have a problem among African-American activists in her home state, though. Something to keep in mind, but so is the chance of re-electing Trump. Anyway, my number one candidate is Warren.

14 comments:

David B. Benson said...

Didn't know that about Klobuchar. Scratched off my list.

Barton Paul Levenson said...

I don't like Klobuchar because she was involved in throwing Al Franken under the bus. That said, I'll vote for her if she gets the nomination.

Victor Venema said...

"As I’ve told you again and again, people discount polls at their peril....Public polls consistently show that Joe Biden runs better against Donald Trump than any other candidate."

Not sure you sample your polls right. A recent Survey USA poll:

"The poll found that 52 percent of voters would choose Sanders and 43 percent Trump, giving the veteran senator a nine-point lead. Next was former vice president Joe Biden at 50 percent to Trump's 43 percent, a seven-point lead."

Looking back at older similar polls, the situation can also be reversed. On average I see no difference between the two candidates.

One can look at many other pieces of data. They are within the uncertainty for most, including the popularity of their policies. But some favor Sanders, such as the number of donors and volunteers, which will be necessary in the general election and point to more enthusiasm.

The main difference is unfortunately qualitative: how strong the campaign is and how strong the attacks will hurt.

"Marshall goes on to give his reasoning against Bernie, which isn't bad as far as it goes: that Bernie's socialist positioning will weaken him in the general campaign,"

This has been mentioned in debates so many times and the answer of Sander is so strong (the vibrant market economies Sweden and Norway, with a much higher quality of life) that the establishment keeps on claiming Sanders is not vetted, because he did not take a scratch. All other attacks have been tried, including by Clinton, the media hates him and constantly attacks him. For people who are not supporters this may not look like attacks, but just bringing up the "facts" that he is a communist or Khomeini, but they are.

"and he hasn't been exposed to attacks because the Republicans are focusing on Biden (and Hillary before Biden)."

Biden has not been vetted. He has a huge list of liabilities, but the media hardly talks about them. He lost all previous presidential runs and people seem to have forgotten his time as Senator and only remember his ceremonial time as VP. Trump will make sure that all those liabilities will be spelled out in the general election. It will be 2016 all over again.

Andy Mitchell said...

Predictions of poll performance are pretty meaningless until we can see the impact of Putin and whatever the Cambridge Analytica-types will be calling themselves now.

Unknown said...

Did you check out the pragmatic progressive that loves to talk about sewers?
Where he has near 100% name recognition (IA and NH) Buttigieg polls best against DT.

EliRabett said...

Eli grew up in the same neighborhood as Sanders and Sanders is a completely sui generis Brooklyn socialist.He has no interest in politics if you define politics as getting things done for people, and only cares about his ideology.

If anybunny wants to define types, Warren is a prototypical prairie progressive, less wedded to ideology and more focused on outcomes Also cares about people

Trump, of course, has an ideology, Trump and the devil take the hindmost.

Just watch how the three of them react to people

Tom said...

Vote blue no matter who

Pete then Liz then Amy

Then Joe then Andrew then Bernie

Then whoever's left standing, left right or center.

All flawed. All better than current inhabitant of 1600

Bernard J. said...

People think Trump is scared of Biden. I think that it's rather the opposite - Trump knows that he can wound Biden much more easily than any of the other candidates, who have much less baggage.

Biden might have short-term popularity (although after Iowa...) but I'm pretty certain that he has long-term liability.

Gingerbaker said...

" Sanders is a completely sui generis Brooklyn socialist.He has no interest in politics if you define politics as getting things done for people, and only cares about his ideology."

Good effing grief!?!

His ideology is that government's proper role is to help people. Your statement is preposterous. Should I copy and paste every piece of legislation he has proposed over his political career, you would be very hard-pressed indeed to find a single one which was not designed to help ordinary people.

EliRabett said...

Post the pieces of legislation Sanders has proposed and have been passed instead. His proposals have been (insert snark if required) ideology driven with no chance of passing and helping people.

Gingerbaker said...

"Post the pieces of legislation Sanders has proposed and have been passed instead."

1) YOU made the assertion, not I. I just lived in Burlington with Bernie as Mayor for years, and have followed him since.

Your assertion, your responsibility. But I'll help - here is a list of 421 bills Bernie was involved in. See if you can find some that don't help ordinary folks, or stand up for true American values:

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/browse?sponsor=400357

2) Moving the goal posts much? NOBODY has gotten anything of much value passed in decades.

EliRabett said...

Two post office namings, one good bill, lots of introduced. Sanders has been in the Congress for a whole lot of years including those with Dems in control

Gingerbaker said...

"Two post office namings, one good bill, lots of introduced. Sanders has been in the Congress for a whole lot of years including those with Dems in control"

There are 421 bills there! And that is your take?!?

In the words of the immortal John McEnroe: "You can't be serious!"

EliRabett said...

Three of them passed.