Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Putting down a marker on eating the ICE infrastructure away

Been looking for data like this for a long time:






Turns out that California Energy Commission has gasoline data, lots of gasoline data. I downloaded and edited the data above.

I've argued since 2013 that as EVs start taking up significant market share, the gas station and repair infrastructure for internal combustion engines will start to shrink and become less convenient. A similar-but-distinguishable process will happen with increasing ICE mileage, but that process stabilizes because even high mileage ICE vehicles still need gas and will pay enough to stabilize the number of stations. As EVs eat into the ICE infrastructure, the ICE market just gets less convenient and the shift to EVs accelerates in a virtuous feedback.

The effect will be especially strong when people consciously notice the ICE infrastructure is getting less convenient, but that's not required. And I fully admit the more important factor, for now, is EVs becoming more convenient. Still, a choice of EV versus ICE turns in part on the relative convenience of the choice, and increasing inconvenience for ICE will have an increasing effect.

Oslo would be the best place to test this, but I can't find their data. San Francisco Bay Area isn't a bad alternative. This doesn't constitute proof yet - 2016 was the highest year in the dataset, and it would be bold to claim the 2017 decline is from EV share of the fleet mileage traveled, but let's watch this space.

12 comments:

Everett F Sargent said...

Once you stop smoking your ...
http://www.cdtfa.ca.gov/taxes-and-fees/tax-rates-stfd.htm#cannabis

Stop driving your ICE ...
http://www.cdtfa.ca.gov/taxes-and-fees/MVF_10_Year_Report.pdf

Stop driving your VW ...
http://www.cdtfa.ca.gov/taxes-and-fees/Diesel-10-Year-Report.xlsx

And stop flying ...
http://www.cdtfa.ca.gov/taxes-and-fees/Jet-Fuel-10-Year-Report.xlsx

You might have something meaningful to say. However, that time isn't the present.

Songwriters: Sylvester Stewart
(I Want to Take You) Higher lyrics © Sony/ATV Music Publishing LLC

Lyrics
Beat is gettin' stronger.
Music gettin' longer, too.
Music is a-flashin' me.
I want ta, I want ta,
I want ta take you ((higher.))
I wanna take you ((higher.))
Baby, baby, baby, light my ((fire.))
Yeah-eah, Ha!
I Wanna take you ((higher.))
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-ooga-boom.
Feeling nitty-gritty.
Sound is in your city, too.
Music's still flashin' me.
Don't'cha, don't'cha,
Don't, don't'cha, don't cha wanna get ((higher?))
Ugh! Don't'cha wanna get ((higher?))
Baby, baby, baby, light my ((fire.))
Whoo! Wanna take you ((higher.))
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-ooga-boom.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka,
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka,
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka,
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka,
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka,
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka,
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka,
Higher! Higher! Higher! Higher! Higher!
Come light my fire. (Higher!)
Whoo! God. (Higher!)
Ha! Wanna take you higher. (Higher!)
Beat is there to make you moo-hoove.
Sounds is there to help you groove.
Music still flashin' me.
Take your places, I wanna take you ((higher.))
Yeah, yeah, (Higher!) yeah, yeah,
Wanna take you ((higher.)) (Higher!)
Baby, baby, baby, light my fire. (Higher!)
Whoo! (Higher!)
I wanna take you (Higher!) hi-hi-hi-hi-,
(Higher!)-hi-hi-hi-high.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-ooga-boom.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
(Higher!)
Gonna take you... (Higher!)
Do you wanna go... (Higher!)
That made me... (Higher!)
That you do... (Higher!)
That make my fire... (Higher!)
Whoo! God. (Higher!)
Would make you higher. (Higher!)
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
(Higher!)
I feel it. (Higher!)
Yeeaaaahhhhh! (Higher!) (Higher!) (Higher!)
Do you wanna go higher? (Higher!)
Whoo! (Higher!)
I wanna take ya (Higher!) higher, yeah, yeah.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
(Hey, hey, hey, hey.)/Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
(Higher!)
I'll wait for the sniffer. (Higher!)
Welcome back the sniffer. (Higher!)
Ahhh! (Higher!) Ha! (Higher!)
I wanna take it higher. (Higher!)
Yeah, yeah. (Higher!)
Well, I got that money, yeah. (Higher!) (Higher!)
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
(Hey, hey, hey, hey.)/Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Boom laka-laka-laka. Boom laka-laka-laka.
Everybody, higher, higher, higher, higher,
Higher, Higher, higher, higher

David B Benson said...

The price of petrol in Norway is sufficiently high to discourage ICE.

Wombat said...

I don't know about Europe but where I live in Australia infrastructure for ICE vehicles has been getting less convenient for many years, not as a result of EVs but because of consolidation of service stations in order to reduce overheads, in particular staff. ICE usage has nonetheless been steadily increasing.

David B Benson said...

Given the plans and actions of the Chinese and the Indians, it doesn't matter.

Fernando Leanme said...

I fill up my diesel vehicle once a month at a station conveniently located on my way to downtown. It helps to live in a town where street lights are coordinated to allow driving at 50 kmph without hitting more than 2-3 red lights.

David B Benson said...

In Norway, electric cars now outsell ICE cars.

Brian Schmidt said...

I saw that David.

At an extreme, the point I'm making about a deteriorating ICE infrastructure is trivially obvious. When 90% of the cars are EVs, the gas stations and repair places are going to be very hard to find. The question is when does that inconvenience dynamic start to kick in. I think it might be around the 5-10% range of the vehicle miles being EV miles. We'll find out soon.

The other factor in Norway is the upcoming ban on new ICE car sales in 2025 - that might reduce anticipated resale value. And, of course, the million financial incentives for EVs there.

barry said...

Wombat:

The reduced number of petrol stations (gas stations) is not necessarily a reduction in convenience for ICE vehicles, and may rather reflect wiser business strategies with new technologies.

EG, where 3 small servos outside a small town on the highway between Sydney and Melbourne may have offered a couple of bowsers each in the 70s, there is now a single servo with twice the access for cars. Electronic transactions get people in and out quicker, as well as the bowser filling the tank more quickly, and pre-set prices so the driver doesn't have to spend the time quick-squeezing the trigger.

Increased KPL also means fewer servos. That's improved ICE technologies.

There were about 21,000 servos around Australia at peak in the late 70s, and there are now about 6400 (steady since 2005).

https://acapma.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/ACA097_ACAPMA_industry_scan_report.pdf

But I haven't seen fuel access as any more of a problem lately than in the 1970s. You can find queues at the cheaper indy petrol retailers on a good price day, but plenty of spots down the road at the big franchise servo.

In Australia, I think we're quite a way from EV being seen as more convenient than ICE, but I reckon the price factor will make a difference, and with EV performance looking great even for the petrol heads, I don't think the shift will be heavily resisted.

Brian said...

Barry

I think I grokked your Australian terms.

Yes, increased KPH will reduce servos. I think that does make getting gas a little more inconvenient, but alone it will reach an equilibrium when drivers will be willing to pay extra for a nearby servo.

The number of servos here in the US have declined dramatically in recent decades for reasons that have nothing to do with EVs. I don't know all the reasons, I suspect environmental damage from leaking tanks is a substantial factor along with corporate consolidation. Sounds like you're getting similar outcomes in Australia, maybe not for the same reasons.

EVs are a new factor, in my opinion. Whether I'm right at market penetration rates below, say, 50% is another question that we'll get answers about soon.

FixedCarbon said...

Lithium battery prices are falling fast.

Canman said...

Electric cars don't need an infrastructure. It's actually better for the batteries to slow charge them. What they need, is to be cheaper and to have the equivalent of a portable gas can, for when they run out of juice. I'd suggest small clamp on trailers that can be delivered.

thefordprefect said...

the high price of petrol in the uk (£1.20/litre) is largely caused by the taxes.
The road fund license is supposed to pay for road maintenance
zero emissions=zero license fee.

So the uk gov (at least) needs to start thinking of ways to pay for roads and policing! (and what ever else they use the taxes for)

Peryhaps the road fund license should be adjusted to cost linked to km travelled and weight of vehicle?