Sunday, February 24, 2019

There he goes again v.93 p.1221....

On his last visit, but before leaving
Ethon described a wonderful piece of misdirection from our friend in Colorado, who asks for advice on improving this:

No emissions reduction policy currently under discussion – from changes in personal behavior to those proposed under the Framework Convention on Climate Change – even if successfully implemented will have a discernible effect on the global climate system for at least 50 years.
and points to a statement
NCAR's Jim Hurrell observes, "... it should be recognized that mitigation actions taken now mainly have benefits 50 years and beyond now."
as support for the "scientific accuracy of the first sentence.

Now Ms. Rabett Sr. was school teacher and the first thing Eli noted was the difference between "mainly have benefits" and "no emisions policy will have a discernible effect on the global climate system".

So at a minimum Hurrell says that MOST OF THE BENEFIT will come later, but there will be some earlier than 50 years. He who must not be named twists this into NO DISCERNIBLE EFFECT. Several of the comments point out that policies implimented today will take time to establish, economic systems do not stop on a dime, and that even after the policies are implimented it will take time for the climate system to respond. However, let us look and see if


Phil Hays said...

However, let us look and see if __________________

Seems unfinished.

Old_salt said...

Well, the status quo types now can't say that it isn't happening any more, so they are moving over to "We can't do anything about it..."

Unfortunately changing global climate trajectory is a bit like turning a giant oil tanker. First the mate spins the wheel (moves the joy stick) and a while later the ship begins to turn. We have to do things now to get significant improvement 50 years from now.

caveat emptor said...

The time frame between starting action and having a significant impact on climate is always going to be quite long. That is not an argument for inaction. Rather it is an argument for getting started now.

Car rolling towards cliff with brakes that don't work well. Do you delay pushing the brakes because they will hardly make any difference at first?

EliRabett said...

Well, Eli shall wait after all (yes it was a glitch, but a GOOD glitch)

bjchip said...

Yeah, it is a long time to fix.

It was a long time to break too.

The problem here is that the discount rate is negative. Acting now is vastly cheaper than waiting to fix it, and that has always been the case as well.

Humans are genetically handicapped in their ability to deal with problems that take more than a human lifetime to develop.