David Cameron has done it. The United Kingdom is breaking apart, the EU is getting ready to toss the Brits and the economic damage already exceeds two trillion, which whatever the Weasel may think is real money. And oh yes, the torch Cameron lit is being used to burn out those the leavers denigrated.
There was no reason for last week's referendum except Cameron's desire to cement his position in the Conservative Party. The incompetent way that he set the terms of the vote and prepared for it would, were there justice, lead to derision being showered upon him should he dare show his face in public.
Eli proposes that "a cameron" from here on out be used to describe disasters caused by unlimited self regard and incompetence. Hopefully Donald Trump does not get his turn to pull a cameron
Amongst the link list, James Annan puts it best. Go there and read his post, but Eli strongly disagrees with
I can't help but conclude that the best outcome would be for the new Govt to reject the referendum result (and fight an election on that basis). There is no good exit plan or outcome that I can see. Of course it would inevitably destroy a few political careers and we'd have a bit of rioting, but that's better than the alternatives.This is simply not on offer. The rest of the EU will not go forward with the UK as a member given the history of special pleading and how the EU became an excuse for everything that was wrong in Britain and the current political situation. Eli really cannot see the Poles or really any of the others being generous about any terms, let alone continued membership.
So what is on offer? At best membership in the EFTA with Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein. The EFTA (European Free Trade Association) gets access to the EU single market under the condition of following all EU rules including those covering free movement of people between all the EU and EFTA members. The get to follow the rules, but not make them. The EFTA members favor England and Wales joining because it would allow them to have a bit more input into negotiations with the EU, but to a country the EU is not happy with the Brits so there are no guarantees on that. Norway is not really on board but offering them the Shetlands would be an interesting bribe.
Of course, that leaves Scotland and Northern Ireland. If the EU figures out how to cover the transfer payments from the UK to both, then, they are probably gone. Northern Ireland could rationally have a status as a special administrative area in Ireland that the Unionists might be happy with. A unified united Ireland is not likely, but as James and others point out, closing the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland would wipe out all the gains following the Good Friday Agreements.
The Irish question hasn't been addressed at all, as far as I can tell. It seems near-inevitable that Brexit will rip up the Good Friday Agreement, since that is underpinned by free movement over the border and the primacy of the European Convention on Human Rights. Sinn Feinn are already agitating for reunification, and I can't blame them at all. Even a prominent Unionist politician is openly encouraging Northern Irish to apply for Eire passports (another outcome of the GF agreement) and the Belfast PO quickly ran out of forms. The Good Friday Agreement, which successfully drew a line under 100 years of terrorism and violence in Northern Ireland and the mainland UK, was the one remarkable achievement of an otherwise unremarkable Major administration and it's a great shame to discard it so casually and with so little forethought. I'd think the best outcome we could hope for there would be a relatively straightforward and peaceful reunification process for Ireland as a whole, but there will be a whole lot of unhappy people whatever happens, and the peace there was fairly fragile in the first place.Eli recommends reading Shoco's series of tweets to get a better idea of the coming disaster if the border is closed. There are 42 tweets, despair in all.
Scotland is simply gone from the UK.
So, is there any hope for England and Wales. Not with the current crew.
England and Wales need a government of national unity that will face up to the cameroning and start to dig out. There is obviously no one in the House of Commons up to the job. Perhaps there is one in the House of Lords.
One name suggests itself to Eli, but admittedly Eli is an not a Brit, Gordon Brown. As former Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer he has the tools, and perhaps a dour Scot for a dour time is needed, but certainly the fractured political system can not continue if anything is to be left of the United Kingdom.