Tuesday, March 08, 2016

Interesting Is Always a Dirty Word

Eli appears to have done a bit of torching with respect to the sacred Cruz satellite record, you know the one on the hill. Steve Mosher (more on that soon somewhere) is twirling the data and both Everette Sargent and Eric Swanson are poking the pile.

Eli, Eli is a small timer and has been spending his time wondering about the yuuuge difference between the surface records and the  satellite records both in the 1997-98 and the 2015-16 el ninos.  There may be some progress on this front.  A bun could start, for example by comparing the RSS record against HadCRUT4

where it really looks like RSS overestimates the change, which comes a bit late.  The usual handwave is that this is related to how long it takes for the warming to propagate through the atmosphere.  Now some may believe that, and others not, but the big El is a phenom of the tropical pacific and that happens if Eli uses Wood for Trees to compare RSS to the tropical section of HadCrut4

That is a pretty clear.  Nowadays v6.0 UAH has been adjusted to pretty much track RSS so not much to be added by considering it.  OTOH, the fact that the satellite heat up starts well after the surface heatup but cools down along the same track as the surface is suggestive  But why?

Looking at El Nino from this year which is tracking along 1997 (the 1997 maps are not there) gives a strong hint

El Nino4, covers the region close to the Peruvian coast. It appears to be the key.  Perhaps the warm winds from the surface are driven up high in the the troposphere when they hit the Andes.  Just a wild guess.


mrmorse said...

I think your geography is backward. Region Niño4 is the farthest west, in the middle of the Pacific away from any land masses. A map of the regions is at https://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/el-nino-la-nina-enso-faq

E. Swanson said...

Here's a link to a recent post by Carl Mears on the RSS site giving more details about their latest v4. Thanks to Barry for posting the link on Tamino's blog.

Everett F Sargent said...

"How did climate science get into such a dysfunctional state?"

Most excellent question Senior.

The answer is that they are making a joke at your expense. Same goes for Judith and Blog, Inc.

Our mirror company would be most interested in installing mirrors gratis pro bono for free in your and Judy's mirrorless establishments.

Fernando Leanme said...

RSS and UAH no longer track. The issue is being debated. What surprises me is the lack of attention paid over the years to data acquisition. Global warming could be a significant problem in the future, yet we see data deficiencies which aren't being addressed in a comprehensive way.

Right now the models are clunky and barely useable, but I'm sure they can be improved over time. This requires a better data set which allows better definition of the natural phenomena involved.

BBD said...

Right now the models are clunky and barely useable

You do write some utter rubbish, Fernando.

Hank Roberts said...

> satellite heat up starts well after the surface heatup
> but cools down along the same track

errrm, uh, Iris, are you there?

Moving heat from ocean to atmosphere is slower because it requires churning the ocean, um ah handwaving clouds something intermediate, then losing heat to space from upper troposphere goes quicker?

Hank Roberts said...

Perhaps relevant:


"... published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the authors describe a new way to determine both cloud-base updraft speeds and quantify the aerosol particles' ability to create cloud droplets. The new method used measurements from an existing meteorological satellite, operated since 2012, rather than conventional aircraft and ground stations....

Russell Seitz said...

Further shrinkage of BBD's sombrero may get him invited to a tequila party at Bowdoin

Kevin O'Neill said...

Russell, do you see significant discrimination against Russian-Americans in this country? Do you see significant discrimination against Hispanics?

While I understand your point, my ancestry is mostly Native American and Irish so the hullabaloo either way is rather lost on me. Next week we can go out and drink a green beer and cheer on the Cleveland Indians or Atlanta Braves in spring training games -- or maybe watch a replay of the Redskins Superbowl XVII victory?

Yes, both of Bowdoin's parties had their fair share of clumsy stereotypes, but one involves a demographic that *is* actively discriminated against. If you don't see a difference, then I suggest you clean your glasses.

BBD said...

@ Russell

When the dead complain about stereotyping, I'll change my avatar ;-)