Wednesday, January 20, 2016

2015 GISS temp anomaly is .87C, massive record

Presentation here, with NOAA anomaly .90C. In a teleconference this morning they both said well over 90% certainty that 2015 is the warmest so far (NOAA says 99%), and both expect that 2016 is likely to be even warmer.

So at the top of everyone's mind should, of course, be the status of my bet with David Evans. I'm winning - obviously I'm benefiting from El Nino but there was also a (weaker) El Nino in the 2005-2009 baseline period for the bet.

To simplify the over-complicated bets, there are two that bet against different levels of warming and for each the possibility is to win, lose, or void the bet if the result is close to the middle value of a range. I win both bets if the 5-year GISS average is .81C or higher and lose both if its .71C or lower.

We're only one year in to the 2015-2019 bet, but now the last four years' average could be .80C and I'd still win both. To lose both the four-year average can't exceed .67C. My wild guess at this point is I'm slightly more likely to void rather than win the warmer bet, and will easily win the the less-warm bet. And then it's on to our 15-year and 20-year bets.

And then there's James Annan's bet. I'm jealous, although he says his betting counterparts have not been very communicative in recent years.

UPDATE:  David's perspective here (from Feb. 2015, but I expect he'll update it).

5 comments:

Brendon Pywell said...

I wonder if David will be keen on making bets against the prediction of his own "climate" model? :)

http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/big-news-viii-new-solar-model-predicts-imminent-global-cooling/

david lewis said...

Hansen is saying in his Jan 19 2016 "Global Temperature in 2015" email:

"Strong La Niñas commonly follow strong El Niños, so it is likely that 2017 and perhaps 2018 will be quite cool relative to 2015-2016, but the decade as a whole should be considerably warmer than the prior decade."

dave said...

David's perspective has the statement "Back in 2007 there was no talk of a pause or hiatus in the warming."

By coincidence, it was the recently deceased Bob Carter who presciently announced in his 9th April 2006 Daily Telegraph article "There IS a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998".

On 8th November 2006, Coby Beck published a rebuttal to Carter's claim, which by then had been "echoed far and wide and been used by Richard Lindzen as well as a host of skeptic websites."
http://grist.org/climate-energy/global-warming-stopped-in-1998/

Perhaps everyone forgot that as 2007 began, but on 13th December of that year the National Post got a bunch of signatories to an argument including the claim that "there has been no net global warming since 1998. That the current temperature plateau follows a late 20th-century period of warming is consistent with the continuation today of natural multi-decadal or millennial climate cycling."

Maybe David meant to say " "Back in 2007 there was no talk of a pause or hiatus in the warming, the talk was of a stop or plateau."

KAP said...

Earlier this year I predicted that Evans would lose his shirt, based on warming already in the pipeline:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/3/22/1372395/-Climate-skeptic-David-Evans-is-going-to-lose-his-shirt

Bernard J. said...

Heads-up KAP, Eli and Brian are two different bunnies in the warren...