As Eli has been pointing out, the INTERTUBES are an entirely different place. In conversation one can blow anyone (well almost everyone, Hank Roberts and Carrot Eater are fierce and Joe Romm is intergalactic) off, and your friends are polite. The net, OTOP provides lots of eyeballs, someone has access to the reference material and there is a ton of time, it is a 24/7 thing. If you get caught out the best thing is just to be quiet. Judith Curry is learning this at her cost, and yes, Saint Google will make sure that it's gonna be there for years. Eli took a shot, a friendly one, hardly anything but pointing out a few inconsistencies in her story. Lazar has followed up (he RTFR) on Stoat
JC writes;"There is one statement in the Manabe paper that is relevant: " the reduction in surface salinity resulting from the increase of freshwater supply at the oceanic surface is mainly responsible for the weaker convective activity in the G integration." This statement is made in a paragraph discussing the deep ocean convection in the Southern Ocean. Manabe doesn't discuss the increasing sea ice extent in this context."
That is not true... on the next page (113)..."In sharp contrast to the situation over the Arctic Ocean, the change of sea ice is relatively small in the circumpolar ocean of the Southern Hemisphere, with the exception of the Weddell and Ross seas, where it increases substantially from the S to G integrations (Figs. 11a and 11c; Figs. 11b and 11d) despite the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Because of the reduction of surface salinity due to the increased water supply at the oceanic surface, the convective mixing between the mixed layer and deeper ocean becomes less frequent, slightly lowering surface water temperature and increasing sea ice thickness in both the Weddell and Ross seas, as discussed in Part I of this study."
Part I says (795)..."It is surprising, however, that the sea-ice thickness in the G integration increases significantly in the immediate vicinity of the Antarctic Continent despite the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This is consistent with the slight reduction of sea surface temperature mentioned earlier (Fig. 10a). It will be shown in section 9a that, owing to the intensification of the near-surface halocline caused by the increased supply of water at the oceanic surface, the convective mixing of cold near-surface water with warmer, underlying water becomes less frequent, resulting in the increase of sea ice and slight reduction of sea surface temperature."
Section 9a says (811)..."Although the efficient vertical mixing may be the most important factor responsible for the smallness of sea surface temperature change in the Circumpolar Ocean of the Southern Hemisphere, it does not explain why the change is practically zero or sometimes reversed in sign. As noted by Manabe et al. (1990) based upon the detailed analysis of the heat budget of the Circumpolar Ocean of their model, the reduction of convective activity in the surface layer is responsible for this interesting phenomenon. For example, in response to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the excess of precipitation over evaporation increases, and surface salinity is reduced in high latitudes as noted in section 8. Thus, the static stability of the near-surface water increases and the convective mixing of cold surface water with the relatively warm subsurface water is reduced, thereby contributing to the reduction of sea surface temperature in the Circumpolar Ocean. This is why sea surface temperature hardly changes and sea ice slightly increases near the Antarctic Continent in response to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide."
... all of which information was placed front and center in Zwally et al. 2002, which was cited by Liu and Curry in 2004.
Manabe, S., R. J. Stouffer, M. J. Spelman, and K. Bryan (1991), Transient Responses of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2. Part I. Annual Mean Response., Journal of Climate, 4(8), 785-818, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1991)0042.0.CO;2.
Manabe, S., M. J. Spelman, and R. J. Stouffer (1992), Transient Responses of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2. Part II: Seasonal Response., Journal of Climate, 5(2), 105-126, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1992)0052.0.CO;2.
and William tries it dry
[Oh dear, what you can find if you actually read the paper :-) -W]but the best is Mark B's version of the story as told by Steve
"Liu and Curry, defended by The Team, selected inappropriate data and time periods, ignored data that doesn't match the IPCC message, manipulated results, clearly engaged in misconduct, dismissed dissenting views, and ultimately pushed the notion that Antarctic Sea Ice will melt, based on fudged computer models, when data clearly shows otherwise. Read 'The Antarctic Ice Illusion: CurryGate and the Corruption of Science' by Montfork. It's one of the best books written on climate science, though I can't personally vouch for any of its conclusions."