Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Bye bye. . .


Sometimes words are not needed UPDATE: but here are a few. The sudden dive is a strong indication that the ice is crumbling. There is very little thick multi year sea ice left and it may be going fast as the report from the NSIDC says


This past winter's negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation transported old ice (four, five, and more years old) from an area north of the Canadian Archipelago. The ice was flushed southwards and westward into the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, as noted in our April post. Ice age data show that back in the 1970s and 1980s, old ice drifting into the Beaufort Sea would generally survive the summer melt season. However, the old, thick ice that moved into this region is now beginning to melt out, which could further deplete the Arctic’s remaining store of old, thick ice. The loss of thick ice has been implicated as a major cause of the very low September sea ice minima observed in recent years.

59 comments:

Patrick said...

So hear comes the obvious question; how anomalous can the anomaly get before there is nothing left to anomalyize?

Patrick Cottentail

David Graves said...

Maybe this graph is from the Polarizing Science Center? Or does Judith Curry staff that Center all by herself?

dhogaza said...

Pffft, it's been recovering the last couple of months. Clearly we're entering a new ice age!

</stevengoddard>

Anonymous said...

You probably did not get the memo from Anthony - PIOMAS is flat out wrong, and PIPS in your only man.

Looking forward to CryoSat-2 data.

Toby

PolyisTCOandbanned said...

It's impressive and definitely, you can see less ice with more time, which makes sense given the recent warming.

How would it look absolute? Of course not as dramatic, but that's not my point exactly (graphsmanshop), but more my interest to know if we extended the line when we would go ice free. (I know this is a very crude test, but I'm curious).

Anonymous said...

ROFLMAO A model! A model! oh no look out the "model" says. Rabett Run needs a psychologist ASAP!

This site is funnier than quoting Rodney Dangerfield movies!



Celery Eater

Anonymous said...

The fact that the model output has dropped below the (what is it?) 2 sigma level is neither here nor there (it's done it before and recovered), but the trend portrayed ("It's the trend, stoopid!", so some say) is a different matter entirely, especially when taken with the other sea-ice metrics around and their long-term trends.

Little-known facts

1. Apparently, celery is one of but a few foodstuffs that uses more calories to eat/digest than is in the food itself.

2. Apparently, celery eater correspondents' messages (however long) have less useful content in them than there are words in a one-word sentence. :)

Cymraeg llygoden

Anonymous said...

PolyIsTCO: from the PSC website, the mean September volume (1979-2009) is 13,400km^3. So when the September anomaly reaches -13.4 it's bye bye September Arctic ice. Obviously, it will be longer before other months reach the same point. Last Year's Sept anomaly was -7.6, with an absolute volume of 5,800km^3. This September, the anomaly if we're lucky will be around or above -10, which would be a volume of 3,400km^3, or just over half of last year.

skywatcher

Dallas said...

You seem to be running out of straws to grasp.

Watching the deniers said...

Graphs prove nothing. Now, if I can just rotate my computer screen 180 degrees...

[muffled sounds]

Ah, that's better! Nothing to worry about then!

Phew.

Hank Roberts said...

Isn't it time for the kimbot to be showing up again, telling us the ice is increasing?

Hank Roberts said...

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

Anonymous said...

Apparently faith in models is paramount, Antartic Sea ice is irrelevant, and your "faith" always trumps your "science". No one on this site dares ask why Artic Sea Ice for the past 3 years has done better than 2007. If and I do say If this year ends up with a larger minimum extent than 2009, will not a single one of ask why? Or will you continue to try coming up with cute quotes about food and varmits? lol you guys truly crack me up.


Celery Eater

guthrie said...

Iseem to recall that the very low 2007 ice extent was due to unusual wind conditions that pushed a lotofthe floating ice into warmer areas, or something like that. We don't have any concerns about not knowing what happened in 2007, do you?

PolyisTCOandbanned said...

So 1984 would be middle of the period and thus an expectation of 13.4 in September. Right?

Then take off 3.4 per decade and we get ice free in ~4 decades? 40 plus 1984 is 2024?

Of course we might have an unusually hot or cold September. Or the trend could accelerte or slow.

But just with a simple view of linear exrtrapolation, the average September in 2024 will be ice free! Wow! Those polar bears really will be SOL. I don't think we can or will slow things down before then.

I'm seriously intrigued with the marine navigation possibilities across the Arctic for shipping.

Anonymous said...

PIOMAS comparison with submarine ice draft: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/IDAO/retro.html#Submarine_ice

Cymraeg llygoden

a_ray_in_dilbert_space said...

Celery eater, you wouldn't know science if it bit your pecker off.

Models do not require faith. They require investigation, validation and improvement.

Horatio Algeranon said...

RE: models

As the saying goes

"I'd rather have a model in front of me
Than a frontal mad enemy."

(or something along those lines)

Michael Tobis said...

To those mocking models in this context:

My first thought was to dismiss this also as unfounded or misreported. However, on further investigation I became convinced I was wrong.

PIOMAS is not a climate-mode model. Its long-term statistics are not the goal. It's an assimilating model. Sort of like the first step in a weather model.

It's a very long story, explaining what that means. Lots of people don't understand the difference between a weather model and a climate model, never mind something in between.

The upshot, though, is that this isn't absolutely definitive (it's a very complex calculation and any number of things may have gone wrong) but if it holds up as a sound calculation, that is, if there no glitch turns up, it's pretty compelling evidence.

Not that you should believe anyone who knows what they're talking about, just on the grounds that they claim to know what they are talking about, of course. Nevertheless I offer this observation in the hopes that some may at least take it as offered in good faith.

EliRabett said...

So bunnies, to expand in another direction on what MT says, here you have a statistic based on a constrained fit to observational data that stays within a fairly narrow band over a few decades and suddenly it dives. Pretty much a red flag that something basic has changed and in this case your choices are not pretty

Anonymous said...

"Pretty much a red flag that something basic has changed"

Yes.
Actually, if you look at 'The tale of the tape' on Cryosphere today -
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg -
you can see a vast change in characteristic of the graph as of 2007. Cool mathematics like 'Catastrophe Theory' may explain some of this change. My suggestion being that if a large extent of that ice drops below a threshold average thickness, it will disappear with considerable acceleration. That phenomenon explains the vast increase in anomaly amplitude.

RR Kampen, NL.

Anonymous said...

http://www.climatechangefraud.com/climate-reports/7479-us-government-in-massive-new-global-warming-scandal-noaa-disgraced

a_ray_in_dilbert_space said...

Ah, I see we've been graced by another anonymous drive-by dimwit.

Anonymous said...

This Little Mouse has been looking at satellite pictures and cannot see how the ice pack stood up so well this year. So much of the ice pack is broken up, I expected the ice extent to go really low.

Clearly Arctic sea ice is now extremely vulnerable and some time soon the wrong weather pattern at the wrong time of the year will have horrible results for the ice pack.

I want my ice cap back

Little Mouse

Anonymous said...

It might be the same anonymous drive-by dim-wit ;-)

I actually took a look at that link and it truly beggars belief, most of the comments on that site. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at my fellow Man's utter dim-wittery displayed there.

Still, one good thing has come out of the dim-wittery: it did bring to light a problem that can now be sorted.

See, it is good to see the positive in everyone: even a dim-wit or three can be useful, even if their output is nonsense.

Cymraeg llygoden

Anonymous said...

a_ray and CL have nothing but insults, yawn. Let me try it. a_ray and CL two dumb-MOFOs who sit behind a computer spewing their BS in attempt to make themselves feel superior. All the while their merry band of faith-based morons chime in and talk about food and varmit in cute phrases. Talk is cheap and these two chicken-shit morons are the cheapest "Ho's" on the block.



Celery Eater

Anonymous said...

Well, there was me seeing good in the dim-witted and then this big C. muncher goes and spoils my positive outlook. I think I'll change my mind on this particular dim-witted king cnut now.

Oh, what would one give for a [kill file] facility? Ho hum.

Case proved I think, little-known fact 2!

Cymraeg llygoden

a_ray_in_dilbert_space said...

Celery Eater, Wow, you're not even particularly good at abuse. Tell me, how does it feel to be so utterly insignificant that even a bacterium on your anus doesn't care about your continued existence?

Anonymous said...

a_ray The rambling of a fool affects me not, nor do you influence the rest of the world even if you are a legend in your own mind. And I highly doubt you are on my anus.

CL the world laughs at fools like you heartily and frequently.

Anonymous said...

Just for grins, the following two links contain maps showing the change in age of arctic sea ice: here and here.

Lurker mouse

Anonymous said...

But, but, but... there's computery black boxes involved in generating those maps of observations. There be models involved. You just can't trust yer eyes. And, and, and ... it recovers every year!

Cymraeg llygoden

Anonymous said...

The laughter continues.

Celery Eater

Anonymous said...

Sometimes words are not needed - and then it stopped, no more words, no comments, just End. And that was so cool.
I come back later to find more words and 32 comments, you guys have no poetry in your souls!

Cymraeg llygoden, a) couldn't you chose a name I don't have to cut an paste? b) LOL at your first post.

Celery Eater, that stuff is disgusting! Also it's a bit early in the day to have been drinking isn't it?
ps even Goddard uses models, ok so he uses them badly, but even so, who doesn't use models?

Richard C

Anonymous said...

Richard C,

But you find approval with bacterium on anuses, OK got it. Oh I'd be much more disgusting if I were drinking, I'd make the lot of ya cry and never return.


Celery Eater

Anonymous said...

Celery Eater
I can't say I approve of bacterium on anuses, but bacteria and arseholes are a fact of life and blogs.

Richard C

Anonymous said...

Richard C,

Agreed and being judged by either is the first definition of irrelevant. I think LC and a_ray are planning their trip to CA for their upcoming wedding, pretty sure next Thursday.

EliRabett said...

Gentlebunnies,

Constrain yourselves.

or at least be somewhat humorous.

dhogaza said...

"This Little Mouse has been looking at satellite pictures and cannot see how the ice pack stood up so well this year. So much of the ice pack is broken up, I expected the ice extent to go really low."

The answer is in your own statement - the ice pack is broken up. Wind patterns have been such for the last few weeks that the Beaufort Gyre stalled, and indeed, rather than "gyring" winds have been spreading the ice out.

A couple of weeks of the Beaufort Gyre beginning to spin again would lead to compaction of at least some of the arctic ice pack, causing extent (but not area, of course) to drop more quickly.


Clearly Arctic sea ice is now extremely vulnerable and some time soon the wrong weather pattern at the wrong time of the year will have horrible results for the ice pack.

Check this out:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/retrievepic.html?filetype=Displacement&year=2010&month=8&day=13

That's the PIPS model projection so beloved by Steven Goddard. As you can see, they're predicting a return to wind conditions that favor rotating the gyre.

"Clearly Arctic sea ice is now extremely vulnerable and some time soon the wrong weather pattern at the wrong time of the year will have horrible results for the ice pack. "

Hey, this year's not over yet!

dhogaza said...

Oh, that PIPS link was a day old, here's tomorrow's forecast:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/retrievepic.html?filetype=Displacement&year=2010&month=8&day=14

Looking good to rotate the gyre, start pushing ice out the fram strait, etc. I'm not sure how many days in a row of conditions like this are required to actually get things moving significantly, though.

Anonymous said...

I'm laughing at my humor as are 5 other people where I work, this is all quite entertaining.

Thanks!

Celery Eater

Anonymous said...

dhogaza "Hey, this year's not over yet!" Keep rooting for it. Pretty sad when you root for a bad situation to get worse so you can sah "nah nah nah I told you so". Fin pathetic.



Celery Eater

Anonymous said...

Pity those other five people laughing with you Celery Eater are your other Web identities. And I think you'll find that three of them are laughing at you and the other two are just joining in because they don't want to feel left out.

Oh, yes. Now I can't speak for a_ray_in_dilbert_space, but I have no desire to go over to Climate Audit thank-you, not just (or even) to get hitched. I'm sure the Chief Rabett could do the honours here anyway if a_ray_in_dilbert_space were so inclined, if I were so inclined, which...

Another day perhaps.

You are a tiresome time-waster CE. You are deserving of all the derision that gets shoved your way.

Cymraeg llygoden ... aka Welsh mouse

Anonymous said...

CL,

Your assumption of my having other identities, wrong. Your thinking about who is laughing at what, wrong. Bring all the derision you can muster you are not even in a class that merits worry nevermind fear, lol.

Yes all hail to CL the great savior of humankind. The Great List of all his accomplishments to society:

1) Cute posts about food and people who take on the identities of varmits.


Thats it? Yep.

Now let's wait and see if the PIOMAS predictive skills are as dismal as last year, but hey it's a model that currently says what we are all rooting for, so keep your fingers crossed.




btw, thanks for the info that you are currently single. Did not figure you for having a relationship with another person. with all that arrogance and high opinion you have of yourself.



Celery Eater

Anonymous said...

It seems I've hit a nerve, again. And it seems CE just continues to miss the point... nay, the points.

Ho hum.

Little-known facts

(3) Eating celery can be bad for your health. It's right up there with peanuts when it comes to causing anaphylaxis in the susceptible. You seem to be spluttering a tad. I hope...

(4) Celery seeds contain 3-N-butyl-phthalide, which has apparently been demonstrated to lower blood pressure in rats. You should try some. Mind you, they also have the highest allergen levels. Fancy doing an experiment?

And still the ice melts, on a downward trend over a climatologically relevant period.

Nighty-night.

Cymraeg llygoden ... aka Welsh mouse

Anonymous said...

CL,

Again with you thinking you affect me. lol.

So the ice melts now, less than last year, and the year before and
the year before. Earlier it was said the 2007 Artic minimum was due to weather and the recovery that winter was due to weather. I sure wish you would make up your mind. Meanwhile on the other side of the equator CO2 loses its warming properties and allows positive ice anonomoly.


Ah more food and varmit talk, at least you are consistent with your inane blather.

Heat up another tv dinner and hug your favorite pillow, as with most nights you sleep alone.


btw, I know your list of contributions to society were not beyond what I stated. Have a lonely night!


Warm? yes Artic trend down? yes Magical Mystery Tour CO2 to blame? nope.


Celery Eater

bill said...

Celery Eater has confirmed every belief I ever had about people who admire Rodney Dangerfield movies...

a_ray_in_dilbert_space said...

Celery Eater: "I'm laughing at my humor as are 5 other people where I work, this is all quite entertaining."

Good, CE. I'm glad the other trustees at the mental hospital share what, for you, passes for a sense of humor.

Anonymous said...

One shouldn't engage trolls, I know. And ordinarily I don't. But it is fun occasionally.

Said troll actually seems to be having behavioural problems similar to those currently being expressed by my 6-year-old when he's told he's wrong about something. Ha!

But I digress...

Celery Eater looked up his family tree recently, only to find out he was the sap. Boom, boom! (With a hat tip to CE's Rodney.)

Now I'd never encountered this Rodney character, so I did a little digging (which must be obvious from the foregoing quip). Lo and behold, to my eyes anyway, he bears an uncanny resemblance to another comedian doing a world tour: which one's Monckton and which is Rodney?

Cymraeg llygoden ... aka Welsh mouse

PS Chief Rabett: sorry for so much off-topic tosh. I'll bite my tongue from hereon... maybe.

Anonymous said...

Being serious for a moment...

The reasons for the increase in Antarctic sea ice are well appreciated (and IIRC it's actually modelled to increase at the moment). The people who know about these things (at the BAS) still say that, come the end of the century, just around the time you are reaching your 93rd birthday CE, that the Antarctic will likely "lose about a third of the sea ice around" it. The timing, though, will be largely dependent on when the ozone hole finally heals.

And if "on the other side of the equator CO2 [is losing] its warming properties", then why do NOAA say the following?

"In the Southern Hemisphere, both the February 2010 average temperature for land areas and the Hemisphere as a whole (land and ocean surface combined), represented the warmest February on record. The Southern Hemisphere ocean temperature tied with 1998 as the warmest February on record." (NOAA)

"The average temperature for the Southern Hemisphere as a whole (land and ocean surface combined) was 0.61°C (1.10°F) above the 20th century average, and tied for second warmest May on record with 2002 and behind 1998. The Southern Hemisphere ocean temperatures during May 2010 were the second warmest May on record, behind 1998, with an anomaly of 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20th century average. The May 2010 Southern Hemisphere land temperatures were 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average — the fourth warmest May on record." (NOAA
)

NOAA June report: Land 5th warmest; Ocean 2nd warmest; Land and Ocean 4th warmest.

NOAA July report: Land 6th warmest; Ocean 5th warmest; Land and Ocean 7th warmest.

Cymraeg llygoden ... aka Welsh mouse

Anonymous said...

Scaredy Mouse says: Wait. What's all the argument about? I'm still trying to figure out if the ice pack looks like a giant shrimp head or something. Did I miss Eli's point again?

Anonymous said...

A-Ray,

Lame, but fits with your character.


CL,

How was your lonely night and the pillow hugging?

Keep quoting how it is warmer than before as I already AGREED to that dummy. Are you a little stupid or something?

You actually tell your 6 year old there is right and wrong? Wow maybe there is hope for you yet. Gotta run big day as my oldest is off to the Army this Tuesday. That makes for 8 generations of service. So my apologies if I do not have much more time for you irrelevant jokers until after that.


Celery Eater

Anonymous said...

Thanks Dhogaza.

So have I got this right.

Ice volume is the most important metric, but the least accurately measured. PIOMAS could not be used to quote an exact volume, but given the huge drop from an already worrying trend we should be very concerned.

Ice area is the next best metric, but still inaccurately measured.

Ice extent is the least valid metric, but the most accurately measured.

All these measures use satellite data, which has to be processed and is subject to varying accuracy. Like the little blip that used to appear on the JAXA data as they changed from summer to winter protocols.

I still want my icecap back.

Little Mouse

PS Cymraeg llygoden, I did get the Welsh bit but didn't know my llygoden from my cwningen

Anonymous said...

Eli will not be best pleased that you've misspelled Rabett ;-)

a_ray_in_dilbert_space said...

Ode to Celery Eater:

An old fart of limited wit;
ate but celery and all else did omit;
He got no nutrition;
And even less erudition;
And became a bothersome...git.

EliRabett said...

Patience is a virtue
Virtue is a grace
And if you guys don't stop it
Eli will cut off your comments as a disgrace

EliRabett said...

If you are looking for something to do, go abuse Keith Kloor.

dhogaza said...

Little Mouse:

"So have I got this right."

Almost. Cryosat-2 will provide very good ice thickness data, and will grealty improve understanding of changes in volume, so in the future your first note may no longer be true. They're currently doing calibration work.

Note that Cryosat-1 was lost on launch in 2005. Too bad, we'd have had this data for the 2006-2009 seasons, including the spectacular 2007 melt season, if it had been successful.

But we're going to get interesting data to enjoy starting next year, IIRC.

dhogaza said...

Little Mouse:

"I still want my icecap back."

As daddy and mommy mouse are prone to say, no, little mouse, you can't have it back. You can still play with the chunks breaking off the greenland ice cap, though.

Anonymous said...

The chart covers 50 years. Ice has been there a lot longer and there is more this year than previous. Those are the kind of stats that made the IPCC the respected agency it is. How about the 480 F temps in Lake Michigan? Think someone would have noticed? Oh it's NOAA, another agency that ranks right up there with the IPCC. Read and learn.

http://www.climatechangefraud.com/climate-reports/7479-us-government-in-massive-new-global-warming-scandal-noaa-disgraced