Saturday, November 07, 2009

Eli is a Global Climate Change Decision Maker

Readers of Rabett Run will be pleased to know that Eli has been officially recognized as an Official Climate Change Decision Maker by the United Nations Environmental Program, the World Bank, the World Conservation Union (IUCN), and the International Development Research Centre. Others may, of course, shudder.

This is at least one rank higher than an IPCC Expert Reviewer, as the survey Email came unsolicited into Eli's Email box along with a number of seemingly remunerative solicitations for financial participation and notices of the passing of myriad well to do, and related long ears.

This is the third part of a survey designed by Global Scan, and Eli thought it would be interesting to put the class to a test especially as asking an incoherent list of questions about climate policy has become the hot new thing. The first question has two answers, what the bunnies would wish to have happen at the COP15 conference (and if you don't know what the COP15 conference is, drop the course before you fail) and what they think will happen

  1. A comprehensive and ambitious agreement with the cooperative participation of the USA and China
  2. An agreement where countries commit to their own current national targets
  3. A limited agreement outside the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
  4. An extension of the Kyoto Protocol, the existing agreement
  5. A political agreement in principal with negotiations continuing beyond the Copenhagen conference (COP15) into 2010
  6. An agreement to do very little
  7. No agreement at all and the termination of negotiations
  8. Other (Please specify
The second question asks for the usual 1-5 scale. SA is strongly agree, A is agree, N is neutral, D is disagree and SD is strongly disagree
  1. Climate change is already negatively affecting the lives of people in poor countries.
    SD D N A SA
  2. Investing in mitigating the effects of climate change now will be less costly than adapting to those effects later.
    SD D N A SA
  3. The science of human-caused climate change is not solid enough to justify major action to fight climate change.
    SD D N A SA
  4. New technology will solve the problem of climate change,requiring only minor changes in human thinking and individual behavior.
    SD D N A SA
  5. Climate change is such a big problem that there is very little the individual can do about it.
    SD D N A SA
  6. Large companies have a responsibility to encourage governments to do more to address climate change.
    SD D N A SA
Eli's answers are below the fold.
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First Question: The Bunny would really like to see a comprehensive and ambitious agreement (1), but suspects the outcome will be some combination of 2 and 5 with governments committing to their own multinational (e.g. EU) or national standards and punting the ball down the road into 2010. If El Nino is real strong in 2010 the world may see more progress.

Climate change is already negatively affecting the lives of people in poor countries.
Disagree on this, but in about 10-15 years probably Strongly Agree. The world is on the cusp of dangerous human driven climate change.

Investing in mitigating the effects of climate change now will be less costly than adapting to those effects later.
Strongly Agree. Eli would remind everyone about J Willard Rabett's third and fourth rules for climate change policy makers:
3. Adaptation plus future costs is more expensive than mitigation,
4. Adaptation without mitigation drives procrastination penalties to infinity.
The science of human-caused climate change is not solid enough to justify major action to fight climate change. Strongly Disagree. This MIGHT have been true twenty years ago, but increasingly it is nonsense, especially as the costs and risks of procrastination become clearer

New technology will solve the problem of climate change,requiring only minor changes in human thinking and individual behavior. Adoption of this as a policy would be criminal. Eli will forward those potentially remunerative solicitations to anyone who agrees with this and hopes that their investments prosper.

Climate change is such a big problem that there is very little the individual can do about it. Not well posed. Individuals can set examples for others that reverberate. Social pressure is an important factor in human societies which has its origin in individual behavior

Large companies have a responsibility to encourage governments to do more to address climate change.
Strongly agree. Unfortunately the primary role that industry has played is to block action because of perceived costs.

The sagacious amongst thee, of course, have already checked the correct boxes. If so, you may repair to the refractory where Ethon has prepared a groaning board of refreshments including his grandmother's liver pate.

**Image from http://www.woodlynne.k12.nj.us/

6 comments:

Steve Bloom said...

I'll have to differ with you and go with SA on the first one. It's true that they're not as yet suffering in large numbers, though.

Anonymous said...

" Adaptation of this as a policy would be criminal"

Think you mean "Adoption ...".

Cymraeg llygoden

CapitalistImperialistPig said...

So what did you dedide to do about climate change?

CIP

EliRabett said...

Pig, so soon you forget Eli Rabett's Simple Plan to Save the World?

Magnus Westerstrand said...

5. A political agreement in principal with negotiations continuing beyond the Copenhagen conference (COP15) into 2010

and
1. A
2. SA
3. SD
4. A
5. A
6. A

David B. Benson said...

Some peoples in some places have already been strongly negatively impacted by just the climate change so far. The best evidence is those negatively impacted by glacier retreats. These, with negative impacts, have occurred in Bolivia, Nepal and Butan.

Not to mention ski resort operators in Colorado, Switzerland, etc. for reasons of not enough persisting snow on lower slopes.