First Krammed, then Curtined
One of the things that you learn on your Doctor Mom or Dad's knee is to be suspicious of stuff that don't quite sound right. There are any number of three card monte dealers on the street who would be only too glad to prove this to you in the lab.
Tim Curtin, a Tim Lambert's favorite pinata, a guy so important that he has his own thread on Deltoid, has come up with a new one that he parked over at Honest Marohasy's Used Climate Argument Blog.
Tim C puts on his Tamino costume and scribbles
Give him credit (ok a few pieces from the penny jar) Tim C mentions that he got the graph from the Western Regional Climate Center at DRI but ding him, he doesn't point to where. Eli went looking and found a table for average monthly and annual temperature (link fixed), and being a good bunny he graphed the annual data using the 1955-1985 data as the base
The temperature data at Mauna Loa from 1955 do not support the conclusions of the paper, of extreme warming at ‘high altitude Hawaii” to the extent of 0.268 C per decade since 1975. Actually as the graph shows there is a slight declining trend in the annual increases in temperatures at Mauna Loa.
A plot of changes in temperature and carbon dioxide year on year from 1959, as in the chart, shows a steady rise in concentrations of carbon dioxide but no increase in temperature.I conclude that there is no relationship between carbon dioxide and temperature at a pristine site like that at Mauna Loa. In conclusion the whole theory of ‘radiative forcing’ allegedly arising from increasing concentration of carbon dioxide over time has no validity at pristine locations like Mauna Loa.
with a mean annual trend of +0.041 K/yr. Then the Rabett went and found a very nice presentation from Donald Turcotte, Bruce Malamud and Jordan van Aalsburg, who find an annual trend of 0.022 K/yr from 1977 through 2006. More about that tomorrow
So dear reader what's going on?
Ah, very simple. The Curtin is not plotting temperatures, or temperature anomalies, but the CHANGE in annual temperatures. In other words, if the annual MLO temperature in 1975 was 4.5 C, and in 1976 it was 5.5 C, the CHANGE is 1.0 C.
Since CO2 concentrations are increasing approximately exponentially, and since the effect of CO2 on global temperature is approximately logarithmic, the net is that the annual CHANGE in temperature per year will be approximately constant. According to Tim Curtin's graph, at least at Mauna Loa, it is.
Watch the bouncing ball.