A list for Morano

UPDATE:  Jim Prall has taken this a whole lot further.  He has an introduction saying what he has done and then, of course the list with the number of cites to the top four papers from each of the WGI authors, and if you want to recognize them on the street, another with photos

Like John Hersey Eli writes a list of 619 climate scientists for Morano, the IPCC WGI authors. The Rabett has listed these in alphabetical order and used Google Scholar to find the papers written by the first five eleven. We suggest the same exercise if you have any issues. Unlike the 400 Club (a list with links) these are real climate scientists not wanna bes, TV weather guys and girls, and the occasional gardener. Known bloggers in RED they must be important. NASA Employees in true blue.

1. ACHUTARAO, Krishna, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project C Covey, KM Achutarao, U Cubasch, P Jones, SJ... - Global and Planetary Change, 2003 – Elsevier The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) collects output from global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs). Among other uses, such models are employed both to detect anthropogenic effects

2. ADLER, Robert, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, USA The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset GJ Huffman, RF Adler, P Arkin, A Chang, R Ferraro, … - 1997 - NASA/GSFC

3. ALEXANDER, Lisa, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK, Australia, Ireland Comparison of Modeled and Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Climate Extremes D Kiktev, DMH Sexton, L Alexander, CK Folland - Journal of Climate - Bootstrapping techniques are used to assess the uncertainty in the gridded trend estimates and the field significance of the patterns of observed trends. The findings mainly confirm earlier, less objectively derived, results based on ...

4. ALEXANDERSSON, Hans, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data - H Alexandersson - J. Climatol, 1986 - doi.wiley.com In climate research it is important to have access to reliable data which are free from artificial trends or changes. One way of checking the reliability of a climate series is to compare it with surrounding stations. This is the idea

5. ALLAN, Richard, Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, UK Simulation of the Earth’s radiation budget by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ... RP Allan, MA Ringer, JA Pamment, A Slingo - J. Geophys. Res, 2004 - agu.org Richard P. Allan. Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, Reading, UK. Mark A. Ringer. Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK. ..

6. ALLEN, Myles, Climate Dynamics Group, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, UK, Quantifying Uncertainties in Climate System Properties with the Use of Recent Climate Observations -CE Forest, PH Stone, AP Sokolov, MR Allen, MD … - Science, 2002 - sciencemag.org We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three

7. ALLEY, Richard B., Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, USA, Large Arctic Temperature Change at the Wisconsin-Holocene Glacial Transition - KM Cuffey, GD Clow, RB Alley, M Stuiver, ED … - Science, 1995 - sciencemag.org KM Cuffey, Department of Geological Sciences, Box 351310, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. GD Clow, US Geological Survey, Mail Stop 975, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA. RB Alley, Earth System Science Center and ...

8. ALLISON, Ian, Australian Antarctic Division and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Australia, East Antarctic Sea Ice: Albedo, Thickness Distribution, and Snow Cover I Allison, RE Brandt, SG Warren - Journal of Geophysical Research, 1993 - Characteristics of springtime sea ice off East Antarctica were investigatedduring a cruise of the Australian National Antarctic Research Expedition in October through December 1988. The fractional coverage of the ocean ...

9. AMBENJE, Peter, Kenya Meteorological Department, Kenya, Monitoring Agricultural Drought: The Case of Kenya LA OGALLO, SB OTENGI, P AMBENJE, W NYAKWADA, F … - Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global …, 2005 - books.google.com CHAPTER EIGHTEEN Monitoring Agricultural Drought: The Case of Kenya LABAN A. OGALLO, SILVERY B. OTENGI, PETER AMBENJE, WILLIAM NYAKWADA, AND FAITH GITHUI ...

10. AMMANN, Caspar, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA, Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate - Meehl, WM Washington, CM Ammann, JM Arblaster, TML … - Journal of Climate - Ensemble simulations are run with a global coupled climate model employing five forcing agents that influence the time evolution of globally averaged surface air temperature during the twentieth century. Two are natural (volcanoes ...

11. ANDRONOVA, Natalia, University of Michigan, USA, Objective estimation of the probability density function for climate sensitivity - NG Andronova, ME Schlesinger - Journal of Geophysical Research, 2001 The size and impacts of anthropogenically induced climate change (AICC) strongly depend on the climate sensitivity, DeltaT 2x . If DeltaT 2x is less than the lower bound given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ...

12. ANNAN, James, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan, UK, Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity JD Annan, JC Hargreaves - Geophysical Research Letters, 2006 - Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity JD Annan and JC Hargreaves FRCGC/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan ...

13. ANTONOV, John, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA, Russian Federation
14. ARBLASTER, Julie, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Bureau of Meteotology Research Center, USA, Australia
15. ARCHER, David, University of Chicago, USA
16. ARORA, Vivek, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Canada
17. ARRITT, Raymond, Iowa State University, USA
18. ARTALE, Vincenzo, Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment (ENEA), Italy
19. ARTAXO, Paulo, Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Brazil
20. AUER, Ingeborg, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
21. AUSTIN, John, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
22. BAEDE, Alphonsus, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, Netherlands
23. BAKER, David, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
24. BALDWIN, Mark P., Northwest Research Associates, USA
25. BARNOLA, Jean-Marc, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement, France
26. BARRY, Roger, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, USA
27. BATES, Nicholas Robert, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, Bermuda
28. BAUER, Eva, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
29. BENESTAD, Rasmus, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway
30. BENISTON, Martin, University of Geneva, Switzerland
31. BERGER, André, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaitre, Belgium
32. BERNTSEN, Terje, Centre for International Climate and Environmantal Research (CICERO), Norway
33. BERRY, Joseph A., Carnegie Institute of Washington, Department of Global Ecology, USA
34. BETTS, Richard A., Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
35. BIERCAMP, Joachim, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum GmbH, Germany
36. BINDOFF, Nathaniel L., Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia
37. BITZ, Cecilia, University of Washington, USA
38. BLATTER, Heinz, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
39. BODEKER, Greg, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
40. BOJARIU, Roxana, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), Romania
41. BONAN, Gordon, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
42. BONFILS, Cèline, School of Natural Sciences, Univerity of California, Merced, USA, France
43. BONY, Sandrine, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France
44. BOONE, Aaron, CNRS CNRM at Meteo France, France, USA
45. BOONPRAGOB, Kansri, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Ramkhamhaeng University, Thailand
46. BOUCHER, Olivier, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK, France
47. BOUSQUET, Philippe, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
48. BOX, Jason, Ohio State University, USA
49. BOYER, Tim, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
50. BRACONNOT, Pascale, Pascale Braconnot Institu Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
51. BRADY, Esther, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
52. BRASSEUR, Guy, Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA, Germany
53. BRETHERTON, Christopher, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, USA
54. BRIFFA, Keith R., Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK
55. BROCCOLI, Anthony J., Rutgers University, USA
56. BROCKMANN, Patrick, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
57. BROMWICH, David, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, USA
58. BROVKIN, Victor, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, Russian Federation
59. BROWN, Ross, Environment Canada, Canada
60. BUJA, Lawrence, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
61. BUSUIOC, Aristita, National Meteorological Administration, Romania
62. CADULE, Patricia, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France
63. CAI, Wenju, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia
64. CAMILLONI, Inés, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Cwentro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Argentina
65. CANADELL, Josep, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO, Australia
66. CARRASCO, Jorge, Direccion Meteorologica de Chile and Centro de Estudios Cientifi cos, Chile
67. CASSOU, Christophe, Centre National de Recherche Scientifi que, Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifi que, France
68. CAYA, Daniel, Consortium Ouranos , Canada
69. CAYAN, Daniel R., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA
70. CAZENAVE, Anny, Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale (LEGOS), CNES, France
71. CHAMBERS, Don, Center for Space Research, The University of Texas at Austin, USA
72. CHANDLER, Mark, Columbia University and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA
73. CHANG, Edmund K.M., Stony Brook University, StateUniversity of New York, USA
74. CHAO, Ben, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA
75. CHEN, Anthony, Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Jamaica
76. CHEN, Zhenlin, Dept of International Cooperation, China Meteorological Administration, China
77. CHIDTHAISONG, Amnat, The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Thailand
78. CHRISTENSEN, Jens Hesselbjerg, Danish Meteorological Institute Denmark
79. CHRISTIAN, James, Fisheries and Oceans, Canada , Candian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada
80. CHRISTY, John, University of Alabama in Huntsville, USA
81. CHURCH, John, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Australia
82. CIAIS, Philippe, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
83. CLARK, Deborah A., University of Missouri, St. Louis, USA
84. CLARKE, Garry, Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Canada
85. CLAUSSEN, Martin, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
86. CLEMENT, Amy, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, USA
87. COGLEY, J. Graham, Department of Geography, Trent University, Canada
88. COLE, Julia, University of Arizona, USA
89. COLLIER, Mark, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia
90. COLLINS, Matthew, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
91. COLLINS, William D., Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
92. COLMAN, Robert, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre Australia
93. COMISO, Josefi no, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, USA
94. CONWAY, Thomas J., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, USA
95. COOK, Edward, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, USA
96. CORTIJO, Elsa, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, France
97. COVEY, Curt, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA
98. COX, Peter M., School of Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, University of Exeter, UK
99. CROOKS, Simon, University of Oxford, UK
100. CUBASCH, Ulrich, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany
101. CURRY, Ruth, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA
102. DAI, Aiguo, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
103. DAMERIS, Martin, German Aerospace Center, Germany
104. DE ELÍA, Ramón, Ouranos Consortium, Canada, Argentina
105. DELWORTH, Thomas L., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
106. DENMAN, Kenneth L., Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada and Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada
107. DENTENER, Frank, European Commission Joint Research Centre; Institute of Environment and Sustainability Climate Change Unit, EU
108. DESER, Clara, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
109. DETHLOFF, Klaus, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Research Unit Potsdam, Germany
110. DIANSKY, Nikolay A., Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Federation
111. DICKINSON, Robert E., School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
112. DING, Yihui, National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, China
113. DIRMEYER, Paul, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, USA
114. DIX, Martin, CSIRO, Australia
115. DIXON, Keith, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
116. DLUGOKENCKY, Ed, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, USA
117. DOKKEN, Trond, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway
118. DOTZEK, Nikolai, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Germany
119. DOUTRIAUX, Charles, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, USA, France
120. DRANGE, Helge, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway
121. DRIESSCHAERT, Emmanuelle, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaitre, Belgium
122. DUFRESNE, Jean-Louis, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France
123. DUPLESSY, Jean-Claude, Centre National dela Recerche Scientifi que, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
124. DYURGEROV, Mark, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado at Boulder & Department of Geograpy and Quaternary Geology at Stockholm, Sweden, USA
125. EASTERLING, David, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, USA
126. EBY, Michael, University of Victoria, Canada
127. EDWARDS, Neil R., The Open University, UK
128. ELKINS, James W., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, USA
129. EMERSON, Steven, School of Oceanography, University of Washington, USA
130. EMORI, Seita, National Institute for Environmental Studies and Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
131. ETHERIDGE, David, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia
132. EYRING, Veronika, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Germany
133. FAHEY, David W., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, USA
134. FASULLO, John, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
135. FEDDEMA, Johannes, University of Kansas, USA
136. FEELY, Richard, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacifi c Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA
137. FEICHTER, Johann, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
138. FICHEFET, Thierry, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaitre, Belgium
139. FITZHARRIS, Blair, Department of Geography, University of Otago, New Zealand
140. FLATO, Gregory, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Canada
141. FLEITMANN, Dominik, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Switzerland, Germany
142. FLEMING, James Rodger, Colby College, USA
143. FOGT, Ryan, Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center and Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of geography, The Ohio State University, USA
144. FOLLAND, Christopher, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
145. FOREST, Chris, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
146. FORSTER, Piers, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
147. FOUK AL, Peter, Heliophysics, Inc., USA
148. FRASER, Paul, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia
149. FRAUENFELD, Oliver, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado at Boulder, USA, Austria
150. FREE, Melissa, Air Resources Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
151. FREI, Allan, Hunter College, City University of New York, USA
152. FREI, Christoph, Federal Offi ce of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Switzerland
153. FRICKER, Helen, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA
154. FRIEDLINGSTEIN, Pierre, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France, Belgium
155. FU, Congbin, Start Regional Center for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, China
156. FUJII, Yoshiy, Arctic Environment Research Center, National Institute of Polar Research, Japan
157. FUNG, Inez, University of California, Berkeley, USA
158. FURRER, Reinhard, Colorado School of Mines, USA, Switzerland
159. FUZZI, Sandro, National Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Italy
160. FYFE, John, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Canada
161. GANOPOLSKI, Andrey, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
162. GAO, Xuejie, Laboratory for Climate Change, National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, China
163. GARCIA, Hernan, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Oceanographic Data Center, USA
164. GARCÍA-HERRERA, Ricardo, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain
165. GAYE, Amadou Thierno, Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, ESP/CAD, Dakar University, Senegal
166. GELLER, Marvin, Stony Brook University, USA
167. GENT, Peter, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
168. GERDES, Rüdiger, Alfred-Wegener-Institute fürPolar und Meeresforschung, Germany
169. GILLETT, Nathan P., Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK
170. GIORGI, Filippo, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy
171. GLEASON, Byron, National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
172. GLECKLER, Peter, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA
173. GONG, Sunling, Air Quality Researcch Division, Science & Technology Branch, Environment Canada, Canada
174. GONZÁLEZ-DAVÍLA, Melchor, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain
175. GONZÁLEZ-ROUCO, Jesus Fidel, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain
176. GOOSSE, Hugues, Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium
177. GRAHAM, Richard, Hadley Centre, Met Offi ce, UK
178. GREGORY, Jonathan M., Department of Meteorology, University of Reading and Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
179. GRIESER, Jürgen, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Global Precipitatioin Climatology Centre, Germany
180. GRIGGS, David, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
181. GROISMAN, Pavel, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research at the National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA, Russian Federation
182. GRUBER, Nicolas, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles and Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich, USA, Switzerland
183. GUDGEL, Richard, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
184. GUDMUNDSSON, G. Hilmar, British Antarctic Survey, UK, Iceland
185. GUENTHER, Alex, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
186. GULEV, Sergey, P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanography, Russian Federation
187. GURNEY, Kevin, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Purdue University, USA
188. GUTOWSKI, William, Iowa State University, USA
189. HAAS, Christian, Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany
190. HABIBI NOKHANDAN, Majid, National Center for Climatology, Iran
191. HAGEN, Jon Ove, University of Oslo, Norway
192. HAIGH, Joanna, Imperial College London, UK
193. HALL, Alex, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, USA
194. HALLEGATTE, Stéphane, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Developpement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts-et-Chaussées and Centre National de Recherches Meteorologique, Meteo-France, USA, France
195. HANAWA, Kimio, Physical Oceanography Laboratry, Department of Geophysics, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Japan
196. HANSEN, James, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA
197. HANSSEN-BAUER, Inger, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway
198. HARRIS, Charles, School of Earth, Ocean and Planetary Science, Cardiff University, UK
199. HARRIS, Glen, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK, New Zealand
200. HARVEY, Danny, University of Toronto, Canada
201. HASUMI, Hiroyasu, Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, Japan
202. HAUGLUSTAINE, Didier, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France
203. HAYWOOD, James, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
204. HEGERL, Gabriele C., Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, DUK e University, USA, Germany
205. HEIMANN, Martin, Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Germany, Switzerland
206. HEINZE, Christoph, University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway, Germany
207. HELD, Isaac, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
208. HENDERSON-SELLERS, Ann, World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland
209. HENDON, Henry, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Australia
210. HEWITSON, Bruce, Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa
211. HINZMAN, Larry, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, USA
212. HOCK, Regine, Stockholm University, Sweden
213. HODGES, Kevin, Environmental Systems Science Centre, UK
214. HOELZLE, Martin, University of Zürich, Department of Geography, Switzerland
215. HOLLAND, Elisabeth, Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA
216. HOLLAND, Marika, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
217. HOLTSLAG, Albert A. M., Wageningen University, Netherlands
218. HOSKINS, Brian J., Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
219. HOUSE, Joanna, Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System Programme, University of Bristol, UK
220. HU, Aixue, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA, China
221. HUNKE, Elizabeth, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA
222. HURRELL, James, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
223. HUYBRECHTS, Philippe, Departement Geografi e, Vrije Universiteir Brussel, Belgium
224. INGRAM, William, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
225. ISAKSEN, Ketil, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway
226. ISHII, Masayoshi, Fronteir Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
227. JACOB, Daniel, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, USA, France
228. JALLOW, Bubu, Department of Water Resources, The Gambia
229. JANSEN, Eystein, University of Bergen, Department of Earth Sciences and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway
230. JANSSON, Peter, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden
231. JENKINS, Adrian, British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, UK
232. JONES, Andy, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
233. JONES, Christopher, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
234. JONES, Colin, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling Network, Canada
235. JONES, Gareth S., Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
236. JONES, Julie, GKSS Research Centre , Germany, UK
237. JONES, Philip D., Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK
238. JONES, Richard, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
239. JOOS, Fortunat, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland
240. JOSEY, Simon, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, UK
241. JOUGHIN, Ian, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, USA
242. JOUZEL, Jean, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France
243. JOYCE, Terrence, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA
244. JUNGCLAUS, Johann H., Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
245. KAGEYAMA, Masa, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
246. KÅLLBERG, Per, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF
247. KÄRCHER, Bernd, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Germany
248. KARL, Thomas R., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, USA
249. KAROLY, David J., University of Oklahoma, USA, Australia
250. KASER, Georg, Institut für Geographie, University of Innsbruck, Austria, Italy
251. KATTSOV, Vladimir, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, Russian Federation
252. KATZ, Robert, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
253. KAWAMIYA, Michio, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine- Earth Science and Technology, Japan
254. KEELING, C. David, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
255. KEELING, Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
256. KENNEDY, John, Hadley Centre, Met Offi ce, UK
257. KENYON, Jesse, DUK, e University, USA
258. KETTLEBOROUGH, Jamie, British Atmospheric Data Centre, Space Science and Technology Department, Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils, UK
259. KHARIN, Viatcheslar, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Canada
260. KHODRI, Myriam, Institut de Recherche Pour le Developpement, France
261. KILADIS, George, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
262. KIM, Kuh, Seoul National University Republic of Korea
263. KIMOTO, Masahide, Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, Japan
264. KING, Brian, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
265. KINNE, Stefan, Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
266. KIRTMAN, Ben, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, USA
267. KITOH, Akio, First Research Laboratory, Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan
268. KLEIN, Stephen A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA
269. KLEIN TANK, Albert, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Netherlands
270. KNUTSON, Thomas, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
271. KNUTTI, Reto, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Switzerland
272. KOERTZINGER, Arne, Leibniz Institut für Meereswissenschaften an der Universitat Kiel and Institut fur Ostseeforschung Warnemunde, Germany
273. KOIKE, Toshio, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Japan
274. KOLLI, Rupa Kumar, Climatology and Hydrometeorology Division, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India
275. KOSTER, Randal, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, USA
276. KOTTMEIER, Christoph, Institut für Meteorologie, und Klimaforschung, Universitat Karlsruhe/ Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany
277. KRIPALANI, Ramesh, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India
278. KRYNYTZKY, Marta, University of Washington, USA
279. KUNKEL, Kenneth, Illinois State Water Survey, USA
280. KUSHNER, Paul J., Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada
281. KWOK, Ron, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, USA
282. KWON, Won-Tae, Climate Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute (METRI),, Korean Meteorological Administration, Republic of Korea
283. LABEYRIE, Laurent, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
284. LAINE, Alexandre, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
285. LAM, Chiu-Ying, Hong Kong Observatory, China
286. LAMBECK, Kurt, Australian National University, Australia
287. LAMBERT, F. Hugo, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, UK
288. LANZANTE, John, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
289. LAPRISE, René, Deprtement des Sciences de la Terra et de l’Atmosphere, University of Quebec at Montreal, Canada
290. LASSEY, Keith, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
291. LATIF, Mojib, Leibniz Institut für Meereswissenschaften, IFM-GEOMAR, Germany
292. LAU, Ngar-Cheung, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
293. LAVAL, Katia, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du CNRS, France
294. LAVINE, Michael, Duke University, USA
295. LAWRENCE, David, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
296. LAWRIMORE, Jay, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, USA
297. LAXON, Seymour, Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University College London, UK
298. LE BROCQ, Anne, Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Bristol, UK
299. LE QUÉRÉ, Corrine, University of East Anglia and British Antarctic Survey, UK, France, Canada
300. LE TREUT, Hervé, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du CNRS, France
301. LEAN, Judith, Naval Research Laboratory, USA
302. LECK, Caroline, Department of Metorology, Stockholm University , Sweden
303. LEE, Terry C.K., University of Victoria, Canada
304. LEE-TAYLOR, Julia, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA , UK
305. LEFEVRE, Nathalie, Institut de Recherche Pour le Developpement, Laboratoire d’Oceanographie et de Climatologie, France
306. LEMKE, Peter, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany
307. LEULIETTE, Eric, University of Colorado, Boulder, USA
308. LEUNG, Ruby, Pacifi c Northwest National Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
309. LEVERMANN, Anders, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
310. LEVINSON, David, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, USA
311. LEVITUS, Sydney, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
312. LIE, Øyvind, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway
313. LIEPERT, Beate, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA
314. LIU, Shiyin, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
315. LOHMANN, Ulrike, ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Switzerland
316. LOUTRE, Marie-France, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaitre, Belgium
317. LOWE, David C., National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
318. LOWE, Jason, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
319. LUO, Yong, Laboratory for Climate Change, National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, China
320. LUTERBACHER, Jürg, Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, and National Centre of Competence in Research on Climate, University of Bern, Switzerland
321. LYNCH, Amanda H., School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Australia
322. MACAYEAL, Douglas, University of Chicago, USA
323. MACCRACKEN, Michael, Climate Institute, USA
324. MAGAÑA RUEDA, Victor, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Ciudad Universitaria, Universidad Nacional Autonomia de Mexico, Mexico
325. MALHI, Yadvinder, University of Oxford, UK
326. MALANOTTE-RIZZOLI, Paola, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA, Italy
327. MANNING, Andrew C., University of East Anglia, UK, New Zealand
328. MANNING, Martin, IPCC WGI TSU, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, USA, New Zealand
329. MANZINI, Elisa, National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology, Italy
330. MARENGO ORSINI, Jose Antonio, CPTEC/INPE, Brazil, Peru
331. MARSH, Robert, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, UK
332. MARSHALL, Gareth, British Antarctic Survey, UK
333. MARTELO, Maria, Ministerio del Ambiente y los Rcursos Naturales, Dir. de Hidrologia y Meteorologia, Venezuela
334. MASARIE , Ken, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, USA
335. MASSON-DELMOTTE, Valérie, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
336. MATSUMOTO, Katsumi, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, USA
337. MATSUNO, Taroh, Frontier Research Center for Global, Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
338. MATTHEWS, H. Damon, University of Calgary and Concordia University, Canada
339. MATULLA, Christoph, Environment Canada, Canada, Austria
340. MAURITZEN, Cecilie, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway
341. MCAVANEY, Bryant, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Australia
342. MCFIGGANS, Gordon, University of Manchester, UK
343. MCINNES, Kathleen, CSIRO, Marine and Atmospheric Chemistry Research, Australia
344. MCPHADEN, Michael, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
345. MEARNS, Linda, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
346. MEARS, Carl, Remote Sensing Systems, USA
347. MEEHL, Gerald A., Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
348. MEINSHAUSEN, Malte, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
349. MELLING, Humphrey, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canada
350. MENÉNDEZ, Claudio Guillermo, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y de la Atmósfera, (CONICET-UBA), Argentina
351. MENON, Surabi, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
352. MESCHERSKAYA, Anna V., Russian Federation
353. MILLER, John B., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
354. MILLOT, Claude, Centre National dela Recherche Scientifi que, France
355. MILLY, Chris, United States Geological Survey, USA
356. MITCHELL, John, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
357. MOKSSIT, Abdalah, Direction de la météorologie Nationale, Morocco
358. MOLINA, Mario, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Dept. of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California, San Diego, USA, Mexico
359. MOLINARI, Robert, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, USA
360. MONAHAN, Adam H., School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Canada
361. MONNIN, Eric, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland
362. MONTZKA, Steve, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
363. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ellen, Ohio State University, USA
364. MOTE, Philip, Climate Impacts Group, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans (JIASO), University of Washington, USA
365. MUHS, Daniel, United States Geological Survey, USA
366. MULLAN, A. Brett, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
367. MÜLLER, Simon A., Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland
368. MURPHY, James M., Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
369. MUSCHELER, Raimund, Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center, University of Maryland & NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Climate & Radiation Branch, USA
370. MYHRE, Gunnar, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway
371. NAKAJIMA, Teruyuki, Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, Japan
372. NAKAMURA, Hisashi, Department of Earth, PlanetaryScience, University of Tokyo, Japan
373. NAWRATH, Susanne, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
374. NEREM, R. Steven, University of Colorado at Boulder, USA
375. NEW, Mark, Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, UK
376. NGANGA, John, University of Nairobi, Kenya
377. NICHOLLS, Neville, Monash University, Australia
378. NODA, Akira, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan
379. , NOJIRI, Yukihiro, Secretariat of Council for Science and Technology Policy, Cabinet Offi ce, Japan
380. NOKHANDAN, Majid Habibi, Iranian Meteorological Organization, Iran
381. NORRIS, Joel, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
382. NOZAWA, Toru, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
383. OERLEMANS, Johannes, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Netherlands
384. OGALLO, Laban, IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre, Kenya
385. OHMURA, Atsumu, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology , Switzerland
386. OKI, Taikan, Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan
387. OLAGO, Daniel, Department of Geology, University of Nairobi, Kenya
388. ONO, Tsuneo, Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, Japan
389. OPPENHEIMER, Michael, Princeton University, USA
390. ORAM, David, University of East Anglia, UK
391. ORR, James C., Marine Environment Laboratories, International Atomic Energy Agency, Monaco, USA
392. OSBORN, Tim, University of East Anglia, UK
393. O’SHAUGHNESSY, Kath, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
394. OTTO-BLIESNER, Bette, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
395. OVERPECK, Jonathan, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, USA
396. PAASCHE, Øyvind, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway
397. PAHLOW, Markus, Dalhousie University, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Canada
398. PAL, Jeremy S., Loyola Marymount University, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, USA, Italy
399. PALMER, Timothy, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF, UK
400. PANT, Govind Ballabh, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India
401. PARKER, David, Hadley Centre for Climate Predictionand Research, Met Offi ce, UK
402. PARRENIN, Frédéric, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement, France
403. PAVLOVA, Tatyana, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, Russian Federation
404. PAYNE, Antony, University of Bristol, UK
405. PELTIER, W. Richard, Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada
406. PENG, Tsung-Hung, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
407. PENNER, Joyce E., Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, USA
408. PETERSON, Thomas, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, USA
409. PETOUK, HOV, Vladimir, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
410. PEYLIN, Philippe, Laboratoire des Modélisation du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
411. PFISTER, Christian, University of Bern, Switzerland
412. PHILLIPS, Thomas, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA
413. PIERCE, David, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
414. PIPER, Stephen, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
415. PITMAN, Andrew, Department of Physical Geography, Macquarie University, Australia
416. PLANTON, Serge, Météo-France, France
417. PLATTNER, Gian-Kasper, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland
418. PLUMMER, David, Environment Canada, Canada
419. POLLACK, Henry, University of Michigan, USA
420. PONATER, Michael, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Germany
421. POWER, Scott, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Australia
422. PRATHER, Michael, Earth System Science Department, University of California at Irvine, USA
423. PRINN, Ronald, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA, New Zealand
424. PROSHUTINSKY, Andrey, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA
425. PROWSE, Terry, Environment Canada , University of Victoria, Canada
426. QIN, Dahe, Co-Chair, IPCC WGI, China Meteorological Administration, China
427. QIU, Bo, University of Hawaii, USA
428. QUAAS, Johannes, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
429. QUADFASEL, Detlef, Institut für Meereskunde, Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Hamburg, Germany
430. RAGA, Graciela, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, Argentina
431. RAHIMZADEH, Fatemeh, Atmospheric Science & Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), I.R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO), Iran
432. RAHMSTORF, Stefan, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
433. RÄISÄNEN, Jouni, Department of Physical Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland
434. RAMACHANDRAN, Srikanthan, Space & Atmospheric Sciences Division, Physical Research Laboratory, India
435. RAMANATHAN, Veerabhadran, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
436. RAMANKUTTY, Navin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA, India
437. RAMASWAMY, Venkatachalam, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
438. RAMESH, Rengaswamy, Physical Research Laboratory, India
439. RANDALL, David A., Department of Atmospheric Science,, Colorado State University, USA
440. RAPER, Sarah C.B., Manchester Metropolitan University, UK
441. RAUP, Bruce H., National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, USA
442. RAUPACH, Michael, CSIRO, Australia
443. RAYMOND, Charles, University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, USA
444. RAYNAUD, Dominique, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement, France
445. RAYNER, Peter, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
446. REHDER, Gregor, Leibniz Institut für Meereswissenschaften an der Universitat Kiel and Institut fur Ostseeforschung Warnemunde, Germany
447. REID, George, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
448. REN, Jiawen, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
449. RENSSEN, Hans, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands
450. RENWICK, James A., National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
451. RIEBESELL, Ulf, Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, IFM-GEOMAR, Germany
452. RIGNOT, Eric, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, USA
453. RIGOR, Ignatius, Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, USA
454. RIND, David, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA
455. RINKE, Annette, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany
456. RINTOUL, Stephen, CSIRO, Marine and Atmospheric Research and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Australia
457. RIXEN, Michel, University of Liege and NATO Undersea Research Center, NATO, Belgium
458. RIZZOLI, Paola, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA, Italy
459. ROBERTS, Malcolm, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
460. ROBERTSON, Franklin R., National Aeronautics and Space Administration, USA
461. ROBINSON, David, Rutgers University, USA
462. RÖDENBECK, Christian, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena, Germany
463. ROECKNER, Erich, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
464. ROSATI, Anthony, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
465. ROSENLOF, Karen, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
466. ROTHROCK, David , University of Washington, USA
467. ROTSTAYN, Leon, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia
468. ROULET, Nigel, McGill University, Canada
469. RUMMUKAINEN, Markku, Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden, Finland
470. RUSSELL, Gary L., National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA
471. RUSTICUCCI, Matilde, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
472. SABINE, Christopher, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacifi c Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA
473. SAHAGIAN, Dork, Lehigh University, USA
474. SALAS Y MÉLIA, David, Météo-France, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, France
475. SANTER, Ben D., Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA
476. SARR, Abdoulaye, Service Météorologique, DMN Sénégal, Senegal
477. SAUSEN, Robert, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Germany
478. SCHÄR, Christoph, ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Switzerland
479. SCHERRER, Simon Christian, Federal Offi ce of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Switzerland
480. SCHMIDT, Gavin, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA, UK
481. SCHMITTNER, Andreas, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, USA, Germany
482. SCHNEIDER, Birgit, Leibniz Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Germany
483. SCHOTT, Friedrich, Leibniz Institut für Meereswissenschaften, IFM-GEOMAR, Germany
484. SCHULTZ , Martin G., Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
485. SCHULZ, Michael, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France, Germany
486. SCHWARTZ, Stephen E., Brookhaven National Laboratory, USA
487. SCHWARZKOPF, Dan, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
488. SCINOCCA, John, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Canada
489. SEIDOV, Dan, Pennsylvania State University, USA
490. SEMAZZI, Fred H., North Carolina State University, USA
491. SENIOR, Catherine, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
492. SEXTON, David, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
493. SHEA, Dennis, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
494. SHEPHERD, Andrew, School of Geosciences, The University of Ediburgh, UK
495. SHEPHERD, J. Marshall, University of Georgia, Department of Geography, USA
496. SHEPHERD, Theodore G., University of Toronto, Canada
497. SHERWOOD, Steven, Yale University, USA
498. SHUK, LA, Jagadish, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, USA
499. SHUM, C.K., Geodetic Science, School of Earth Sciences, The Ohio State University, USA
500. SIEGMUND, Peter, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Netherlands
501. SILVA DIAS, Pedro Leite da, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Brazil
502. SIMMONDS, Ian, University of Melbourne, Australia
503. SIMMONS, Adrian, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, UK
504. SIROCKO, Frank, University of Mainz, Germany
505. SLATER, Andrew G., Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, USA, Australia
506. SLINGO, Julia, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK
507. SMITH, Doug, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
508. SMITH, Sharon, Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Canada
509. SODEN, Brian, University of Miami, Rosentiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, USA
510. SOKOLOV, Andrei, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA, Russian Federation
511. SOLANKI, Sami K., Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Germany, Switzerland
512. SOLOMINA, Olga, Institute of Geography RAS, Russian Federation
513. SOLOMON, Susan, Co-Chair, IPCC WGI, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, USA
514. SOMERVILLE, Richard, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA
515. SOMOT, Samuel, Météo-France, Centre National dRecherches Météorologiques, France
516. SONG, Yuhe, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, USA
517. SPAHNI, Renato, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland
518. SRINIVASAN, Jayaraman, Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, India
519. STAINFORTH, David, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, UK
520. STAMMER, Detlef, Institut fuer Meereskunde Zentrum fuer Meeres und Klimaforschung Universitaet Hamburg, Germany
521. STANIFORTH, Andrew, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
522. STARK, Sheila, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
523. STEFFEN, Will, Australian National University, Australia
524. STENCHIKOV, Georgiy, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA
525. STERN, William, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
526. STEVENSON, David, University of Edinburgh, UK
527. STOCKER, Thomas F., Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland
528. STONE, Daíthí A., University of Oxford, UK, Canada
529. STOTT, Lowell D., Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, USA
530. STOTT, Peter A., Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
531. STOUFFER, Ronald J., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
532. STUBER, Nicola, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, Germany
533. SUDO, Kengo, Nagoya University, Japan
534. SUGA, Toshio, Tohoku University, Japan
535. SUMI, Akimasa, Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, Japan
536. SUPPIAH, Ramasamy, CSIRO, Australia
537. SWEENEY, Colm, Princeton University, USA
538. TADROSS, Mark, Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa
539. TAKEMURA, Toshihiko, Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Japan
540. TALLEY, Lynne D., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA
541. TAMISIEA, Mark, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, USA
542. TAYLOR, Karl E., Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA
543. TEBALDI, Claudia, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
544. TENG, Haiyan, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA, China
545. TENNANT, Warren, South African Weather Service, South Africa
546. TERRAY, Laurent, Eoropean Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientifi c Computation, France
547. TETT, Simon, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
548. TEXTOR, Christiane, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France, Germany
549. THOMAS, Robert H., EG&G Technical Services, Inc. and Centro de Estudios Cientifi cos (CECS), USA, Chile
550. THOMPSON, Lonnie, Ohio State University, USA
551. THORNCROFT, Chris, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, University at Albany, SUNY, USA, UK
552. THORNE, Peter, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
553. TIAN, Yuhong, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA, China
554. TRENBERTH, Kevin E., Climate Analysis Section, NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research, USA
555. TSELIOUDIS, George, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, USA, Greece
556. TSIMPLIS, Michael, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, UK, Greece
557. UNNIKRISHNAN, Alakkat S., National Institute of Oceanography, India
558. UPPALA, Sakari, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF
559. VAN DE WAL, Roderik Sylvester Willo, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Netherlands
560. VAN DORLAND, Robert, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Netherlands
561. VAN NOIJE, Twan, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Netherlands
562. VAUGHAN, David, British Antarctic Survey, UK
563. VILLALBA, Ricardo, Departmento de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental, Instituto Argentino de Novologia, Glaciologia y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA - CRICYT), Argentina
564. VOLODIN, Evgeny M., Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Federation
565. VOSE, Russell, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, USA
566. WAELBROECK, Claire, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CNRS, France
567. WALSH, John, University of Alaska, USA
568. WANG, Bin, National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
569. WANG, Bin, University of Hawaii, USA
570. WANG, Minghuai, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, USA
571. WANG, Ray, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
572. WANNINKHOF, Rik, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
573. WARREN, Stephen, University of Washington, USA
574. WASHINGTON, Richard, UK, South Africa
575. WATTERSON, Ian G., CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia
576. WEAVER, Andrew J., School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Canada
577. WEBB, Mark, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
578. WEISHEIMER, Antje, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasting and Free University, Berlin, ECMWF, Germany
579. WEISS, Ray, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA
580. WHEELER, Matthew, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Australia
581. WHETTON, Penny, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia
582. WHORF, Tim, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA
583. WIDMANN, Martin, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht and School of Geography, Earth and Envrionmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Germany, UK
584. WIELICKI, Bruce, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Langley Research Center, USA
585. WIGLEY, Tom M.L., National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
586. WILBY, Rob, Environment Agency of England and Wales, UK
587. WILD, Martin, ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Sciencce, Switzerland
588. WILD, Oliver, Frontier Research Center for Global, Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan, UK
589. WILES, Gregory, The College of Wooster, USA
590. WILLEBRAND, Jürgen, Leibniz Institut für Meereswissenschaften an der Universität Kiel, Germany
591. WILLIS, Josh, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, USA
592. WOFSY, Steven C., Division of Engineering and AppliedScience, Harvard University, USA
593. WONG, A.P.S., School of Oceanography, University of Washington, USA, Australia
594. WONG, Takmeng, National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration, Langley Research Center, USA
595. WOOD, Richard A., Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Offi ce, UK
596. WOODWORTH, Philip, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, UK
597. WORBY, Anthony, Australian Antarctic Division and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Australia
598. WRATT, David, National Climate Centre, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
599. WUERTZ, David, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, USA
600. WYMAN, Bruce L., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
601. XU, Li, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, USA, China
602. YAMADA, Tomomi, Japanese Society of Snow and Ice, Japan
603. YASHAYAEV, Igor, Maritimes Region of the Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada
604. YASUDA, Ichiro, University of Tokyo, Japan
605. YOSHIMURA, Jun, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
606. YU, Rucong, China Meteorological Administration, China
607. YUKIMOTO, Seiji, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
608. , ZACHOS, James, University of California, Santa Cruz, USA
609. ZHAI, Panmao, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, China
610. ZHANG, De’er, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, China
611. ZHANG, Tingjun, National Snow and Ice Data Center, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder, USA, China
612. ZHANG, Xiaoye, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Centre for Atmophere Watch & Services, China
613. ZHANG, Xuebin, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Canada
614. ZHAO, Lin, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, China
615. ZHAO, Zong-Ci, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, China
616. ZHENGTENG, Guo, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Science, China
617. ZHOU, Liming, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA, China
618. ZORITA, Eduardo, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany, Spain
619. ZWIERS, Francis, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Canada,

Food for Tamino

While looking at the various curves and swerves on CA Eli was impressed with how well the year to year changes in temperature anomalies between the GISS ocean atmosphere record and RSS followed each other until 2007. Indeed this was a clear tip off that the RSS 2007 or the GISS 2007 values were wrong.
So he decided that it would be sensible to plot the various series against each other
No adjustments have been made to the series. They are plotted as reported. There are several interesting things to note. First, after 1980, if the anomaly goes down in one series, it goes down in the others. If it goes up in one series, it goes up in the others. If it goes sideways in one series, it goes sideways in the others. Kind of like Daniel Drew and Erie Railroad stock

This lead the bunny to some interesting conclusions. If there are errors in the satellite reconstructions, a place to look might be 1995 1985 [thanks to Alocacoce for the correction] and 2003, where the RSS and UAH records diverge. Eli would be somewhat more suspicious of the UAH record because both of the GISS anomalies vary as the RSS record. Also, the GISS Ocean Land anomaly in 1997 appears to rise more than all of the other records.

Because the MSUs are subject to long term drifts, this agreement of the yearly variations appears to be a decent first order check. We can add the Hadley Center global temperature anomaly to the comparison (warning, symbols change)

HadCRUT appears to have less annual variability than the other three reconstructions. More numerology tomorrow but this establishes that GISS, UAH and RSS are measuring the same thing.

UPDATE: Upon awakening some thoughts.

1. RSS and UAH use the same data from the same instruments. GISS and HadCRU use in different ways and combinations the same sets of measurements. Above, Eli has shown that interannual comparison is a good way to check changes in algorithms, particularly for GISS, UAH and RSS.

2. As Rabett Holmes would say, the failure of McIntyre and Motl not to graph UAH was the dog that needed to go for a walk in the night. If UAH was plotted, (see top graph)

a. Their arguments would have been weaker
b. It would have been clear that there was something amiss with RSS v3.0
c. This is the sort of thing you try and teach your students, there is no such thing as a negative volume. If that is your answer, you have made an arithmetic error

3. Understanding the differences in interannual variability between HadCRU and the other sets is potentially important, not only on the annual level, but also seasonal and geographically. For example, in HadCRU looking at 1996, 7 and 8, it looks like more of the El Nino was captured in 1998 than in the other records. (Eli used J-D for the year in all the others, HadCRU may be using D-N??). There is also a lot less variability in HadCRU overall.

4. We can perhaps use the variability (to some extent) to estimate the difference in climate sensitivity at the surface and in the lower troposphere. For example if we ratio the differences in the global temperature anomalies between 1998 and 1996 for UAH and GISS Ocean Land we get .49/.27. for the GISS surface stations it is .49/.33. Similar trends appear to hold at other places where the differences between years are significant. For UAH/HadCRU we get .49/.41. The title of this thumbsucker is Food for Tamino.

5. It looks like UAH and RSS have converged with the launch of the AMSU.

Firing the Auditors

Firing the auditors

Somewhere between a week ago and forever (my how things fly on the INTERTUBES) the following appeared at Climate Audit
UPDATE 1/24 Some additional comments on this data

to (UPDATE CA quotes now in italic)

• defend Pat Michaels' congressional testimony where Scenarios B and C were erased
  

[Update: Jan 17 6 pm] To clarify, I do not agree that it was appropriate for Michaels not to have illustrated Scenarios B or C, nor did I say that in this post. These scenarios should have been shown, as I’ve done in all my posts here.

Strike that one

• because Hansen in his 1988 paper only mentioned that Scenario B was the most likely in an aside. The exact quote from CA is
  

"Despite the graphic precedence to Scenario A in the right panel graph, Hansen mentioned in the running text (9345):

Scenario A, since it is exponential must eventually be on the high side of reality in view of finite resource constraints, even though the growth of emissions (`1.5% per year) is less than the rate typical of the past century (~4% per year).

and, then inconsistently with the graphic shown on the right side only showing Scenario A out to 2050, said (p 9345) that Scenario B was “more plausible”, an aside that subsequently assumed considerable significance."

However, disapproving bunnies that we are, we RTFR and not the audit committee (mis) take on the paper:

The range of climate forcings covered by the three scenerios is further increased by the fact that scenario A includes the effect of several hypothetical or curdely estimated trace gas trends (ozone, stratospheric water vapor and minor chlorine and fluorine compounds) which are not included in scenarios B and C.

These scenarios are designed to yield sensitivity experiments for a broad range of future greenhouse forcings. Scenario A, since it is exponential, must eventually be on the high side of reality in view of finite resource constraints and environmental concerns even though the growth of emissions in scenario A (~1.5%/yr) is less than the rate typical of the past century (~4%/yr). Scenario C is a more drastic curtailment of emissions than has generally been imagined. It represents elimination of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions by 2000 [CHECK], and reduction of CO2 [SADLY NO] and other trace gas emissions [CHECK] to a level such that the annual growth rates are zero (i.e. the sources just balance the sinks by the year 2000. Scenario B is perhaps the most plausible of the three.

The "graphic" that CA points to appears two pages later and there is no mention in the text of why scenario A was run out to 2050, while the others were truncated earlier (lack of computer time suggests itself but that is much less dramatic)

Strike that one

• then that Hansen never said Scenario B was the most likely in his 1988 testimony. CA has only the Senate testimony, but look at the splendid dramatic claims

[Update: The testimony is now available and Hansen’s statement that Scenario B was “used” in his 1988 testimony is very misleading: Hansen’s oral testimony called Scenario A the “Business as Usual” scenario and mentioned Scenario B only in maps purportedly showing extraordinary projected warming in the SE USA

(as mentioned by yr Humble Hare a year and a half ago, in his testimony to the House Energy and Power Subcommittee in 1988, Hansen said

For the future, it is difficult to predict reliably how trace gases will continue to change. In face, it would be useful to know the climatic consequences of althernative scenerios. So we have considered three scenarios for future trace gas growth, shown on the next viewgraph.

Scenario A assumes the CO2 emissions will grow 1.5 percent per year and that CFC emissions will grow 3 percent per year. Scenerio B assumes constant future emissions. If populations increase, Scenerio B requires emissions per capita to decrease.

Scenario C has drastic cuts in emissions by the year 2000, with CFC emissions eliminated entirely and other trace gas emissions reduced to a level where they just balance their sinks.

These scenarios are designed specifically to cover a very broad range of cases. If I were forced to choose one of these as most plausible, I would say Scenario B. My guess is that the world is now probably following a course that will take it somewhere between A and B

Our auditor does not realize that Hansen testified on these issues TWICE in 1988, once to the Senate and once to the House. He should read Rabett Run. Of course both in his 1987 and 1989 testimonies he DID mention that scenario B was the most likely. Tout suite

Strike that one

• then that since Scenario A was described as business as usual it had to be the most likely or

RP Jr. points out in the comments at CA that

Thus, I think it is appropriate to conclude that over the period to 2007, Scenario A is equivalent to what the IPCC calls its “no policy” scenarios, which mean business as usual without explicit policies implemented to limit emissions. When Hansen said “most plausible” he was factoring in factors such as limitations on fossil fuels and eventual emissions policies, which may certainly be the case over the longer term but have not interrupted BAU as yet.

and somewhat lower down pjaco writes

Also, I am curious as to what appears to be your (willful?) misunderstanding of what BAU signifies. It is not, nor has it ever been, a stand in for predicted reality. It is, and always has been, a scenario of unchecked emissions growth not countered by regulation, significant volcanism, or economic restraint. Would you make the claim that BAU is the predicted reality still today- with so many governments and companies now cognizant of the issue and attempts to reduce emissions already taking place? If so, you will probably find yourself in a tiny minority, if not alone, in that interpretation.

Kyoto, Pinutabo, and the collapse of the Soviet Union with its resulting emissions decrease obviously most resemble B, and as Hugh and lucia say, it is perfectly reasonable to take Hansen at his word in choosing B rather than A as most likely.

but Eli simply points you to what Hansen et al said in their paper quoted above

These scenarios are designed to yield sensitivity experiments for a broad range of future greenhouse forcings. Scenario A, since it is exponential, must eventually be on the high side of reality in view of finite resource constraints and environmental concerns

which is what happened.

Strike that one.

• because the Scenario A line was in red it was the most likely because that is what a rock jock would do (OTOH red could indicate hotter, or whatever)
  

We laughed ourselves sick. Strike that one with lipstick

• because A was a solid line in the original it had to be the most likely (turns out it was finely dotted in the original which didn't reproduce well at low res. FWIW OTOH, A was a solid line in Fig. 2 showing the forcing scenarios so cry Audit and loose the drama queens of climate. Whatever, but
  

Strike it anyhow

The audit committee gazed at all this and said it was good, but lo, something was as rotten as a drilled pine tree when compared to the actual data


Turns out that CA had used the infamous Eschenbach versions, read through a glass darkly and just wrong on lots of things. The auditors thought that Eschenbach had got it right and Gavin Schmidt, NASA Employee, who had the actual data which he freely shared was wrong. Much hilarity ensued (see Deltoid and links there to CA).

But lo, our auditors had also used an older version of the RSS microwave tropospheric temperature reconstruction. It had a serious error. What does the corrected version look like?

There are minor differences in the other years which have not been entered. They fall within the width of the line. The biggie is 2007 which is substantially higher in the corrected version (Heavy red line. It must be important).

UPDATE: Terry of the comments points out that the RSS correction was posted 1/18, the CA post 1/16. What a spoil sport. There is a correction on CA. CA says that it was unfair to point this out as an error in the CA original post. Allow Eli a simple parsing, it was an error, it was not a culpable error. At the end of the day, the new reconstruction seriously weakens the argument that McIntyre was trying to make.

Oh yes, GISS Surf refers to the GISS surface stations + oceans data. GISS surface station data is shown in the figures immediately above

Of course, all this neglects the fact that the 1988 paper forecast the 1998 El Nino (just kidding folks)

The audit committee presented its bill. The bunnies used it for necessary functions.

What was the error?

We discovered an error in our processing of AMSU data from NOAA-15 for TLT. A new version, version 3.1 is now available and should be used for all applications. This new version is in much better agreement with other sources of tropospheric temperature. We apologize for any inconvenience.

What was the error?

Last January, I made a small change in the way TLT is calculated that reduced the absolute Temperatures by 0.1K. But I only used the new method for 2007 (the error). When the data are merged with MSU, MSU and AMSU are forced to be as close as possible to each other over the 1999-2004 period of overlap. This caused the error to show up as a downward jump in January 2007. To fix the problem, I reprocessed the 1998-2006 AMSU data using the new code (like I should have done in the first place), and merged it with the MSU data.

We would like to thank John Christy and Roy Spencer, who were very helpful during the diagnosis process.

Carl Mears, RSS, January 16 2008

PPS: Lots of folk are falling into the RSS error trap. As the UAH series before this stuff is flypaper for denialists. See Deltoid, Motl and more

The art of climate auditing

Climate auditing is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy (from Ernest Benn).

Many are in the third stage but some have been left behind.

It has been noticed that some of the usual characters are a bit more agitated than usual. Steve Running, described the five stages of climate grief

In Monday’s speech Running adapted Elisabeth Kubler-Ross’s “Five Stages of Grief” model to apply to climate change. Running said there are

• those in denial (the earth isn’t getting warmer, and if it is it isn’t our fault);
• those who are angry ;
• those who are bargaining (“It was always too cold in Montana, anyway,” Running quipped) ;
• those who are depressed; and
• those who have come to accept climate change as a fact.

The Rabetts, Stoats and other sensible creatures have moved on to the fifth stage. The solar/cosmic ray crowd are still in denial, the bargainers are pulling the smiling Lomborg, and we have all noted an anger spike in the second bunch as they begin to recognize that they simply don't understand the problem. It is quite common that a final fit of anger accompany the move from stage 2 to stage 3. The best would be that they move forward, the more likely that they collapse into irrelevancy. The danger is the damage they do to others in resolving their guilt.

Deltoid sing along

One of the anonymice has composed a song for the Deltoid five, Tim Lambert, Robert, dsquared and the rest of the gang

You can learn the tune here. David, Munroe and friends make a guest appearance at about 1 minute in.

David Kane is my name and I wrote for the Harvard IQSS
Til Amy Perfors came
And shut me down at their behest.
It was in the Fall of 2006
I was hungry for a media fix.
On the right-wing blogs, my "fraud balloon" did swell
It was a time I remember oh so well.

Chorus
The night they shut old David Kane down
And the bells were ringing
The night they shut old David Kane down
And the people were singing, they went
La la la la la la, la la la la la la la la, la


Back with my wife in Harvard Square when one day she called to me
David, quick come see, there goes Roberts, E. Lees
Now I don't mind choppin' wood*
And I don't care if the money's no good
You take what you need and you keep the rest
But they should never have censored Harvard's very best

[chorus]

And even Vonnegut is dead



Budapest Complaint Choir

More Complaint Choirs
Gabriola Island
Randberg
Sointula

and some older, but good ones
Helsinki
Hamburg
St Petersburg

1988 and all that

As soon as the nonsense about global temperature not changing in a decade started, the lab bunnies knew what was coming, so they took out their crayons (very traditional they are, no magic markers allowed in the burrow) and started adding points to Hansen's 1988 graph

Of course, being ethical Rabetts, we used the GISS surface stations record which includes the polar regions. As we all know the models, including Grandpa Hansen, predict that the greatest warming will be in the Arctic, so if you use a surface temperature method or one of the MSU records that do not include the Arctic, it will appear that the models under overpredict (the logic was fine, the execution sucked. Thanks to Mike for pointing this obvious nuttiness out, anyhow youse knew what Eli meant).

The 1988 model appears to be a bit low even compared to scenarios B and C. Only Pat Michaels thinks that scenario A was the most likely, but still. Climate model forecasts depends on the scenario that predicts greenhouse gas concentrations. (OK, if your name is Piers Corbyn maybe not). We OTOH need to look at the predicted forcings which we can get from the NOAA annual greenhouse gas index (btw, the latter has a neat little toy under data visualization that let the little guys look at station data. Auditor's delight)
The total forcing is well fit by a hinged line with a break at 1990. What happened was the Montreal Protocols which flattened the concentration of the CFCs and better recovery of methane from oil wells, so it could be sold. Let's take a look at the forcings that were predicted in the 1988 paper and compare with what actually happened. So let's start from the forcings shown in Hansen, et al (1998) and put the NOAA forcings on top of them and extrapolating Hansen, et Als. (apologies to the Als, the anonymice of scientific papers) forcings to the future we get

where we have set the zero of the NOAA forcings to 1960 to better match that of Hansen, et Als. Since Hansen, et Als. forcings are noiseless, and the NOAA ones are compared to some average value around 1750, this is not a full Eschenbach not even a half one because as anyone can see from the figures, there is a lot less noise in the forcings than in the global surface temperatures.

The sharp eyed Auditoriums have seen that the NOAA forcings are higher than the GISS ones. These are all calculated from concentrations, but using slightly different formulas. So, what does this say about the model. In Hansen's 1988 words

The climate model we employ has a global mean surface air equilibrium sensitivity of 4.2 C for doubled CO2. Other recent GCMs yield equilibrium sensitivities of 2.5-5.5 C.....

Forecast temperature trends for time scales of a few decades or less are not very sensitive to the model's equilibrium climate sensitivity (reference provided). Therefore climate sensitivity would have to be much smaller than 4.2 C, say 1.5 to 2 C, in order for us to modify our conclusions significantly.

We are getting to the point, twenty years on, where the high estimate of climate sensitivity is making itself felt. OTOH, the 1988 paper estimated the forcings slightly on the low side. The result was a pretty good prediction. Definitely in the class of useful models.

Odds and ends mostly w/o comment

1. NIH budget requires free access to papers written about NIH research. There can be up to one year delay.

2. ACS wants $1000 per article for open posting of articles. Here is more on these issues

3. German car manufacturers are moving to R744 for air conditioning to replace HFC-134A. That's CO2 in plainspeak. There are problems, it requires high pressure seals and don't work so good when it's real hot out. HFC-134a has to be replaced because of its global warming potential.

4. Other replacements are not looking too good. Dupont and Honeywell are pushing something called HFO-1234yf. More here

Eli has proposals to finish.

The Golden Rat

UPDATE: Guests from National Review, might be interested in other Rabett Run competitions such as the current Tim Ball Award for Resume Stretching, featuring others from Morano's lists, and the S. Fred Award for Climatology Incoherence.

Those interested in learning more about the qualifications of the Morano 650 could link to the 650list blog

Welcome and Merry Christmas.

Oh yeah, FWIW, someone who doesn't allow comments on their blog, shouldn't criticize others for their comment policy. Come on over and play Chris, but remember, there is a majic word.

----------------------------------------------

NSF gave some $ to the Congressional Research Foundation to evaluated Capital Web sites. Anyone who has walked past the place knows there are bats in the belfry aka the dome, but these guys decided to give Marc Morano's home base, the Senate Environment and Public Works Minority site, a Golden Mouse award.

True this was about design not content, but still

A “Fact of the Day” section and blog posts give them updated content and help ensure repeat visits to the site. The content is also fully integrated and cross-referenced throughout the site.

You gotta wonder whether any of those "Facts of the Day" were facts or just Inhofe snowflakes, so Eli went over and checked out the "Facts of the Day". As in all else, the mice over at the CRF seemingly have not RTFR. More like "Facts of the Week" about four a month. Actually non-Facts but Inhofe op eds. Let's roll the tape

• 12/14/07
  Inhofe: Federal Legislation Can Help Solve State’s Water Woes (In Case You Missed It...By Senator Inhofe, December 14, 2007)

• 12/11/07
  EPW FACT OF THE DAY: NO ETHANOL “CEILING”

• 12/10/07
  Climate Bill Will Devastate American Families and Jobs (In Case You Missed It...Inhofe Op-Ed, Human Events)

12/03/07

Look Closer at Global Warming "Solutions" (In Case You Missed It...Sen. Inhofe Op/Ed, Roll Call)

The first one is really rich. Inhofe is beating on how good the Water Resources Development Act will be for Oklahoma. The bill, of course was vetoed by Bush, and overriden and passed in to law November 8.

An example is the Water Resources Development Act of 2007, enacted Nov. 8. This critically important bill not only authorizes and modifies critical projects for waterways navigation, reduction of hurricane, storm and flood damage, and environmental restoration nationwide; it has a real and important impact here in Oklahoma. Communities across the state can benefit from authorizations such as those improving our lakes and waterways, for sewer improvements and for water-related infrastructure.

In Oklahoma alone, the new law will result in savings of more than $10 million for the city of Edmond and $1.5 million for the communities surrounding the Waurika Conservancy District by clarifying disputes with the Corps of Engineers over water use. It will also continue projects at the Red River, which will enhance drinking water supply and agricultural irrigation in southwestern Oklahoma.

In addition to the water development act, Congress should have reauthorized the Clean Water and Safe Drinking Water Act Revolving Loan Funds legislation I co-authored last year. It contained several provisions aimed at promoting water efficiency and new approaches to addressing supply shortages.

Maybe if we put some CO2 capture systems into OK we could turn the guy. OTOH Marc is still getting his hand headed to him over at Dot Earth. Mus and Horatio are taking action.

The 400 399 Club

Our local wallpaper hanger (he is real good at cut and paste) and flack, Marc Morano has been out there shilling. Marc sent one of those Inhofegrams to dotearth and Ray Pierrehumbert replied by pointing to some of the more spectacular roadkill in the 400 Club.

Someone also came by and shoved a copy of his 399 Club resignation letter into the burrow

Take me off your list of 400 (Prominent) Scientists that dispute
Man-Made Global warming claims. I've never made any claims that
debunk the "Consensus".

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport

You quoted a newspaper article that's main focus was scoring the
accuracy of local weathermen. Hardly Scientific...yet I'm guessing
some of your other sources pale in comparison in terms of credibility.

You also didn't ask for my permission to use these statements. That's
not a very respectable way of doing "research".

We have climatic temperatures rising, greenhouse gas concentrations
rising, any scientist that ignores this information because of a "lack
of proof" is just irresponsible.

George Waldenberger

Eli put a line through his name on the list. Also did the same for Richard Tol.

Elevator trouble

Simon Donner at Maribo rushed into the elevator and started to show everyone pictures of his kids. Eli noticed another one that Simon had posted on his web site the implications of which will limit your kids and your futures soon. Go read it. Simon thinks that scientists don't know how to communicate danger. Eli thinks Simon and the coral scientists stepped on their lede. Simon noted that

"Scientists, alas, are not great marketers. The plight of the world's coral reefs is a tough sell at a time when most North Americans are "holiday" shopping and powering all manner of coloured lights, inflatable Santas and animatronic reindeer (though the review did garner some front page and radio attention the week of publication).The figure to the right is the first half"

But maybe it is much worse. The figure to the right is the second part of the one at Maribo. As you can when you increase atmospheric CO2 this has the effect of increasing the acidity of the ocean [H+] which in turn decreases the carbonate [CO3 2-] concentration. Carbonate is what sea life builds shells from, and in the end coral reefs. If carbonate decreases that means fewer shells on the beach, no huge deal, no coral reefs, bad, but worse it means that the biological pump could be weakened.

The biological pump is one of the major mechanisms through which excess CO2 in the atmosphere moves into the deep ocean where it is substantially diluted. Without the biological pump, carbon in the three shallow reservoirs, soils and veg, upper ocean and atmosphere pretty much would stay there for a much longer time which means that beyond 480 ppm and a couple of degrees C, we are could be stuck until Milankovitch cycles cool things off enough to drop below the line for forming carbonate shells.

Now this is an exaggeration, because if you go to Maribo and look at the other half of the figure, you will see that even at high CO2 concentrations, if the ocean temperature is low enough (think high latitudes), then carbonate shells can still form, and much of the biological pump is due to phytoplanckton at high latitudes and there are many other issues, but what is true for coral reefs must to some degree should also at some level be true for the biological pump

UPDATE: In the comments Hank Roberts points to work indicating that the biological pump may indeed be slowed down in northern waters such as the Bering Sea.

The scientists found that greenhouse conditions favored smaller types of phytoplankton over diatoms. Such a shift would ripple up the food chain: as diatoms become scarce, animals that eat diatoms would become scarce, and so forth.

“The food chain seems to be changing in a way that is not supporting these top predators, of which, of course, we’re the biggest,” Hutchins said.

A shift away from diatoms towards smaller phytoplankton could also undermine a key climate regulator called the “biological pump.”

When diatoms die, their heavier carbon-based remains sink to the seafloor. This creates a “pump” whereby diatoms transport carbon from the atmosphere into deep-sea storage, where it remains for at least 1,000 years.

While they discovered that increasing CO2 significantly increased the amount of photosynthesis in the smallest phytoplankton, this made little difference as the larger diatoms that feed off the nanoplankton formed much more slowly cutting the food chain and slowing the biological pump.

If you don't remember the past you will repeat it

A long time ago, Jack Barrett perpetrated ignorance about the greenhouse effect that is still relied on today by the know nothing wanna know less crowd. There were several replies, but among them, John Houghton had a brief and very useful comment explaining the origin of the Greenhouse effect. Something of current interest.

A further point which Barrett makes is to suggest that because most of the absorption by carbon dioxide of radiation from the surface occurs within 30 m of the surface, the enhanced greenhouse warming due to increase of carbon dioxide in the lower atmosphere is negligible. In fact, most of the enhanced greenhouse effect occurs not because of changed absorption of radiation from the surface (although some change does occur in the wings of the carbon dioxide band where absorption is weaker) but because as the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases, the average height (around 6 km) from which carbon dioxide emits radiation to space also increases. Since atmospheric temperature in the lower atmosphere falls with altitude, if nothing changes other than the amount of carbon dioxide, the amount of radiation to space is reduced. For atmospheric carbon dioxide this reduction can be accurately calculated; for doubled atmospheric concentration it is about 4 W m-2. To restore the Earth’s energy balance the temperature throughout the lower atmosphere has to increase - hence the enhanced greenhouse effect [ 1].

Thanks to Atmoz who brought the current to and fro to Eli's attention and Lubos Motl who in the course of arguing his way to this conclusion reminded us of Houghton's letter.

Atmoz and the kids or

how your child can contribute to the science of climate change

Atmoz came across some guidelines for teaching climate change and was unimpressed. As a commenter pointed out such is the nature of teaching standards. Atmoz also lays one across Steve Mc who is demanding that there be lots of equations in explanations of the greenhouse effect. Still, what concerns Eli is Atmoz' point

I’m glad to see that they specifically have weather mentioned as a topic in their science curriculum. However, it’s almost exactly as I expected for a fourth-grade level. The science being taught is “observe and describe”. Observations are very important to understanding science. However, how are 4th graders going to observe climate change in one school year? They especially aren’t going to observe global climate change.

It turns out that kids can do a lot (or at least something) about observing climate change and good science if you can link them together, something the GLOBE program has been trying to do for a number of years linking together students and classrooms in over 110 countries with earth scientists.

What students can do of course, is make observations, lots of them, also known as ground truth, and they can do it simultaneously at a lot of places, worldwide as it were, and these observations can be linked to satellite measurements. The results can be processed and fed back to the classroom. Carefully formulated lessons before and after the activities give the students context and teach them about the why and wherefore.

GLOBE at night is a simple project that has been running for a while. The map above shows the locations that reported in 2006. GLOBE at night is

a global campaign during 25 February - 8 March 2008, to observe and record the magnitude of visible stars as a means of measuring light pollution in a given location. GLOBE at Night is an easy observation and reporting activity that takes approximately 15-30 minutes to complete

and can be done by families, classes, indeed anyone.

There are many other activities available. You can get a flavor for them and how they contribute to earth science by reading through the Seasons and Biomes entry survey. Here is a more local malaria project being piloted by GLOBE

Steve, set the Wayback Machine to October 29, 2003

UPDATE: N3xus6 says it in pictures. Ear tip to Deltoid

As some of you may know Steve Mc has thrown a hissy fit about how Gavin Schmidt didn't stay up Christmas Eve to allow Steve's comments through on Real Climate post haste. Eli was involved in this because he had noted in a discussion about comments in journals that

FWIW, journal editors have the role of bringing the maximum information to the readers not acting as judges between the parties with the sole and vital exception that they must make an editorial decision that the the correction is worthy of consideration. It is all to easy in a controversy to try and cut it off (which is the mistake that the editor here made), but I see nothing wrong with showing the information to the original authors for their comments. There is no “deadline to meet” and the process takes as long as it takes. That does not mean that when one of the parties starts sprouting nonsense the editor cannot rule the nonsense offsides, or cut off the process when no new information is being added.

I have been on both sides of this, and consider myself fortunate in the editors that handled the situations. I have, through the guidance of those editors, learned a lot about these situations. A word of advice to those submitting comments - keep it short, only comment on things you definitely can prove.

There was a bit more, but RC cut a paragraph because Steve was whining (UPDATE #2)

In the same RC thread, NASA employee and spokesman Gavin Schmidt published a defamatory statement by Eli Rabett, in which Rabett simply invented an account of the original submission by M&M to Nature and then censored my reply to the defamatory statement, which stated: adding in a paragraph that was edited

The Mc’s submitted a garbage can full of issues and the editors at Nature worked to define what was an error, what was a controversy, and what was just silly, all requiring a voluminous correspondence. I guess that the editors told the Mcs that some of their issues were better dealt with in a submitted paper.

Steve claims that

All these statements are untrue.

We submitted a short and clearly written article to Nature, online here which did not require a “voluminous” or even any correspondence to review.

Well you can go read climate audit for more of this at the UPDATE #2 link, but Steve, start the Wayback Machine and let us go to your Climate2003 site where we read

The Audit and Audit Issues

The errors in the data base is here at the audit page. The following audit questions [to the authors of MBH98] summarize the findings and a response to these questions is what is required to resolve the audit issues. Further questions may arise from the responses to these questions.

1. Does the database contain truncations of series 10, 11 and 100? (and of the version of series 65 used by MBH98)?

2. Are the 1980 values of series #73 through #80 identical to 7 decimal places? Similarly for the 1980 values of series #81-83? And for the 1980 values of series #84 and #90-92? What is the reason for this?

3. Where are the calculations of principal components for series in the range #73-92 that would show that these have been collated into the correct year? Do you have any working papers that show these, and if so, would you make them FTP or otherwise publicly available?

4. Do the following series contain "fills": #3, #6, #45, #46, #50-#52, #54-#56, #58, #93-#99?

5. How did you deal with missing closing data in the following series: #11, #102, #103, #104, #106 and #112?

6. What is the source for your data for series #37 (precipitation in grid-box 42.5N, 72.5W)? Did you use the data from Jones-Bradley Paris, France and if so, in which series? More generally, please provide, identifications of the exact Jones-Bradley locations for each of the series #21-42. Where are the original source data?

7. Did you use summer (JJA) data for series #10 and #11 rather than annual data. If so, why?

8. Does your dataset contain obsolete data for the following series: #1, #2, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9, #21, #23, #27, #28, #30, #35, #37, #43, #51, #52, #54, #55, #56, #58, #65, #105 and #112?

9. Do you use the following listed proxies: fran003, ital015, ital015x, spai026 and spai047? If so, where?

10. Did you commence your calculation of principal components after the period in which all dataset members were available for the following series: #69-71, #91-92, #93-95, #96-99?

11. What is the basis for inclusion of some tree ring sites within a region in regional principal component calculations and others as individual dataset components?

12. Did you commence your calculation of principal components before the period in which all dataset members were available for the following series: #72-80, #84-90? If so, please describe your methodology for carrying out these calculations in the presence of missing data and your justification for doing so?

13. What is the explained variance under your principal component calculation for the period of availability of all members of your selected dataset? Would you please make your working papers that show this FTP or otherwise publicly available?

which is a lot more than what made it into the manuscript that M&M submitted to Nature in Fall 04. Many of these are multiple issues. In addition to the manuscript M&M also made a Materials Complaint to Nature (UPDATE: found it. The link now points there. The whole bowl of spaghetti) the text of which Eli does not have. All of these issues were, at a minimum raised by McIntyre and McKitrick in the Energy and Environment 03 paper. We now will have a back and forth about how much of this the editors at Nature were confronted with. Of course they could not possibly have known about any of the E&E stuff and those claims.

Our experience with complaints to the editor is that they take some time and involve multiple discussions, Emails, etc. McMMV but probably not

Eli submits this is a garbage can full of issues and Steve Mc is a drama queen

The whispers of David Kane

Our friend David Kane and Iraq Body Count have been busily whispering into the ears of Neil Munro and Carl Cannon at National Journal, the result being a long article now spreading through right wing blogs where Eli picked it up. There isn't much new from David

"The authors refuse to provide anyone with the underlying data," said David Kane, a statistician and a fellow at the Institute for Quantitative Social Statistics at Harvard University.

And we see a lot of the arguments that have been knocked down by various folks at Deltoid (Tim, Robert D^2). But the National Journal walks right up to and probably beyond the line accusing Roberts and Co. of fraud

Some critics have wondered whether the Iraqi researchers engaged in a practice known as "curb-stoning," sitting on a curb and filling out the forms to reach a desired result. Another possibility is that the teams went primarily into neighborhoods controlled by anti-American militias and were steered to homes that would provide information about the "crimes" committed by the Americans.

And, of course, calling for an audit.

Surprisingly, not one of the peer reviewers seems to have thought to ask a basic question: Are the data in the two studies even true? The possibility of fakery, editor Horton told NJ, "did not come up in peer review." Medical journals can't afford to repeat every scientific study, he said, because "if for every paper we published we had to think, 'Is this fraud?' ... honestly, we would fold tomorrow."

In Belgium, Guha-Sapir's team is completing a paper outlining numerous mathematical and procedural errors in the Lancet II article, and its corrections will likely lower the estimate of dead Iraqis to 450,000, even without consideration of possible fraud during the surveying, a source said.

Perhaps medical journals, like respected news organizations, will learn that they have to factor the possibility of wartime fraud into their fact-checking. Horton knows the peacetime risks only too well: In a Lancet article in October 2005, exactly halfway between the two Iraq mortality studies, a Norwegian physician named Jon Sudbo wrote that a review of 454 patients showed that such common painkillers as ibuprofen and naproxen reduced smokers' risk of contracting oral cancer while increasing their risk for heart disease; it later turned out that Sudbo had faked his research.

And the Lancet editor tries to make nice which is going to come back and bite him

Today, the journal's editor tacitly concedes discomfort with the Iraqi death estimates. "Anything [the authors] can do to strengthen the credibility of the Lancet paper," Horton told NJ, "would be very welcome." If clear evidence of misconduct is presented to The Lancet, "we would be happy to go ask the authors and the institution for an official inquiry, and we would then abide by the conclusion of that inquiry."

Guha-Sapir's criticisms are that

First, according to Burnham and colleagues' results, there were nearly 600 war deaths per day—an unusually high number compared with almost any other armed conflict or indeed with other Iraqi mortality estimates.2 Burnham and colleagues' figure 4, in which cumulated Iraq Body Count deaths parallel their study's mortality rates, is misleading. Rates cannot be compared with numbers, much less with cumulative numbers. The correct comparison would be the one presented here (figure), in which the Iraq Body Count numbers are transformed into rates by period. In that case, there is no similarity between the trends in the study and Iraq Body Count.

Second, the study suggests that, over a 3-year period, around 90% of the deaths were directly related to violence. However, experience from other conflicts indicates that indirect causes (disease, malnutrition) typically outnumber the deaths due to violence (bombs, gunshots, etc).3 Burnham and colleagues' figure remained high for a long period of time. By comparison, only one of 17 surveys in Darfur reported a similar level of violent deaths, and this level only persisted for 3 months of a 6-month period.4

Third, the heterogeneity of the pattern of violence in Iraq argues for a differentiated estimation across the governorates. Insurgency and coalition action is still concentrated mainly in the Sunni triangle, but large tracts in the rest of the country are relatively peaceful. A better accounting for differences in violence by governorate separately and the effect of excluding the Sunni triangle would have strengthened the study.

more criticisms can be found at the link for the interested.

Bert Bolin, founder of the IPCC died December 30

By way of Post Normal Times, Eli hears that Bert Bolin, first chair of the IPCC died December 30. As Sylvia Tognetti said:

"When the Nobel Peace Prize was announced, I wondered why Bert Bolin wasn't standing next to Al Gore. As it turns out, he would have been, had he not been too ill to travel - at least he lived long enough to enjoy the honor (hat tip Climate Science Watch)."

Both Gore and Pachauri acknowledged their debt to Bolin in speeches to the Swedish Riksdag early last month

Pachauri said: 'Professor Bert Bolin is the true founder of IPCC and all we stand for. I am very proud over the privilege of having him as my mentor and being enabled to follow in his footsteps.'In fact, when I learnt that IPCC had been awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, my first instinct was to request Bolin to receive the award in Oslo. However, health reasons prevented him acceding to my genuine request.'

Pachauri's sentiments were echoed by his fellow laureate: 'Upon learning that I had been awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize I first rang up Rajendra Pachauri and immediately after, Bert Bolin.'

The whole world owes Bolin immeasurable gratitude for his indomitable scientific pioneering work to unfold to the world the awesome knowledge of the greenhouse effects and all the dangers they hold', said Gore.

The 82-year old wheelchair-bound scientist, present in the Riksdag for his disciples' accolades, was visibly moved as he said: 'It is, indeed, wonderful to receive such formal recognition, even though it is the actual work and its achievements that are most important.'Right now it is of greatest importance that Al Gore, Rajendra Pachauri and others gathered in Bali achieve the goals we all are striving for. Its significance cannot, by any length, be overstated, exaggerated'.

Eli has a little list

With all the listing back and forth, Eli has moved on to the AR4 author list following in the footfalls of Not Really a PhD John McLean with the bunnies scouring the burrow looking for secretaries, pool cleaners and moles, and indeed the guys in the lab have hooked an interesting one

Lenny Bernstein earned a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering at Purdue University. He spent 31 years working on environmental issues for the petroleum industry. The last 10 of those years were as a manager in Mobil Corporation’s Environmental, Health and Safety Department, responsible for tracking global environmental issues, including climate change and sustainable development. Prior to that he worked on minimizing the environmental impacts of fuel use for Exxon Research and Engineering Company.

After leaving Mobil in 1999, Lenny formed L.S. Bernstein & Associates, an environmental consulting company advising industrial clients on technical and political developments on climate change and other environmental issues. He has attended every UN negotiating session on climate change since 1995; was a Lead Author on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Third Assessment Report, published in 2001; and is a Convening Lead Author on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, scheduled for publication in 2007.

Oh yeah, Lenny Is Really a PhD in ChemE and is one of the authors of the SPM draft. Shock, horrors.

A penny for the Old Guy

Cryosphere Today appears mostly repaired. Eli was looking at the Northern Hemisphere ice extent graph and there is quite an anomaly as we approach maximum ice cover. Place your bets. This graph will update so we can follow the changes in real time. Click for a better view

UPDATE: A bunch of cynical mice doubt the all knowing Eli, let us look at 12/31/07 picture as compared with that of a year ago, 12/31/06

2006 itself had an historically low ice minimum. Here those who are not John S (welcome back John, you look rested and medicated) can see that there is less ice cover both in the Bering sea and in the areas around Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya, but today's picture is astounding, look at the areas of clear(relatively) sea that have developed in a few days

The maximum temperature has been above zero for a couple of days and the forecast is for two or three more until it snaps cold again. Still, that must have been really thin ice that has disappeared!

Eli's Elevator Speech

Andrew Revkin recently put out a call for an elevator speech on climate change. Andy wanted something that could get through to a newly elected president. Several of the usual suspects including Not Really a PhD Courtney responded with ones so long that they must have been thinking they were in space elevators going to the moon.

For those who don't know, an elevator speech is

an extremely pithy description of something, prepared in advance to be used in situations where time is of the essence. The term comes from the hyopthetical situation of somebody seeing a pin or something similar on your person that arouses their curiosity while in an elevator . . . and then asking you what exactly the pin stands for. . . .the prepared elevator speech serves to provide as best of an answer as possible in the available time.

So here is Eli's environmental elevator speech. You are welcome to contribute in the comments and we will move good ones up, however, elevator speeches of over 4 lines will be consigned to the memory hole (UPDATE: in a good elevator speech syllables count).

We are conducting an uncontrolled experiment that is altering the land, the atmosphere air and the oceans. Everything we know says it will end badly, the principal uncertainty is when. We are all in the test tube, but you can do something about it.

UPDATE: Simon Donner has an elevator graphic the kind that someone says what's that while you are showing her your kids pictures. That is why we are worried about their future

Join the 400 Club

Eli has started linking to relevant (and irrelevant) posts on the members of the 400 club, such as our horticulturalists, TV weather heads, wanna be Ph.D.s, and more. Andy Dessler has started a series and hooked two large ones, Andy has good taste.

We did the A's today and a few others. There are also lists on Wikipedia, but they too suffer from good taste. Join in. Send us links.

UPDATE: Added in all suggestions and a few more things. Keep those cards and letters coming mice.