Makin a list, checkin it twice

for those who have been sideswiped as well as the charter members of the Morano Denialist Society 400, or as Stoat would put it, the complete Nutters List. Some of these folk are entirely innocent and have been sandbagged by Morano, Richard Tol is one, Ray Kurzweil is another, there are more, esp the economists, but Eli thought he would simply put out the list. The descriptions are from Morano. The numbers at the end of a line are the number of different references to a person on the list. The folk at Desmogblog are already chewing it over. Eli will be slicing and dicing at the deli this week. You can find the TV weather folk tranch at OISM's Baby also a nice poster you can put on your wall.

UPDATE: Bunny Labs is expanding the project to provide informative (and amusing) links with information about the listed. Send your entries to Eli B. Rabett, c/o Bunny Labs, West Sockpuppet Lane, Climate Climax, NO. OTOH, it's easier and more effective to simply place a comment below.
UPDATE: There appear to be two versions on the EPW site with minor differences, probably due to the chaotic nature of document. The first version is here and the second is here. For example, Roger Pielke Sr. is on the first list and not the second. That, at least is the current situation but who knows which is the official one. (Some changes made in the text to accomodate the fact that there are innocents on the list).

1. Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of Space Research for the Pulkovo Observatory in Russia
2. Professor Tom Addiscott of the University of East London SA - Retired from Rothamsted Experimental Station, was visiting professor at UEL. Well published in soil science. Professor is a stretch. One of the emeriti
3. Alexandre Aguiar Meteorologist of Brazil's MetSul Weather Center
4. Don Aitkin, PhD, Professor, social scientist, educational and cultural policy issues, retired Vice-Chancellor and President, University of Canberra, Australia one of the emeriti
5. Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, the former director of both University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute and International Arctic Research Center 2, one of the emeriti
6. David Aldrich Meteorologist TV Philadelphia
7. Kjell Aleklett of the Department of Radiation Sciences and the Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group at Uppsala University in Sweden - Thinks we have reached peak hydrocarbon production and do not have enough left to increase CO2 much more. This is a very iconoclastic opinion. Death by cold guy
8. William J.R. Alexander, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa; Member, UN Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters, 1994-2000 3 One of the emeriti
9. Dr. Claude Allegre, a top Geophysicist and French Socialist 2, link from Logical Science
10. Chris Allen Meteorologist of Kentucky Fox affiliate WBKO, link from Andy Dessler.
11. Bjarne Andresen, PhD, physicist, Professor, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark 2 and a member of there is no global temperature crowd
12. David Archibald of Summa Development Limited in Australia who published a paper in Energy and Environment is taken apart by David Archer
13. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School at the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania whose Energy and Environment paper (you can watch the movie) was torn apart on Real Climate. Armstrong is another one who believes in different rules for him.
14. Dr. August H. Auer, past professor of atmospheric science, University of Wyoming. Prof. Auer passed in the spring of 2008 previously chief meteorologist, Meteorological Service (MetService) of New Zealand 3. Member of the NZ Climate Science Coalition. One of the seriously emeriti
15. Geoff L. Austin, PhD, FNZIP, FRSNZ, Professor, Dept. of Physics, University of Auckland, New Zealand
16. Dennis Avery's flack see this link for a description of methods. 2006 book, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years, has been described as Unstoppable Hot Air on Real Climate
17. Dr. Nils-Axel Morner, emeritus professor of paleogeophysics & geodynamics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 2 Dowsing proponent. One of the emeriti
18. Donald G. Baker of the University of Minnesota. One of the emeriti
19. Dr. Herbert Backhaus Signer of the Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth No profession given in the signing list, picture at web site.
20. Frederick Bailey, Solar system researcher? Perhaps this (computer game designer) Frederick Bailey or this one (student project on Cassini)
21. Dr. Sallie Baliunas, astrophysicist and climate researcher, Boston, Mass. A good description of her climate related work from Logical Science and where we trace down the $52K she got for participating in the Oregon Deception Project
22. Timothy F. Ball, PhD, environmental consultant, former climatology professor, University of Winnipeg, Canada 3 Some additional links in the comments, but this story belongs to DeSmogBlog (just search under Tim Ball)
23. Don Barron Soil scientist
24. Dr. Jack Barrett, chemist and spectroscopist, formerly with Imperial College London, U.K. 2 SA. No experience in climate science, your basic solution phase analytical chemist. Wrote one of the first denialist articles published in the scientific literature and was torn apart. One of the emeriti
25. Vladimir Bashkirtsev, of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
26. Steve Baskerville CBS Chicago affiliate Chief Meteorologist has a BA in communication from Temple and a certificate (1 yr course) in weather broadcasting from Mississippi State in 2006.
27. Dr. Franco Battaglia, a professor of Environmental Chemistry at the University of Modena in Italy
28. Ernst-Georg Beck, Diplom (eq. of MS) Biol., Biologist, Merian-Schule Freiburg, a secondary school biology teacher who has collated old CO2 measurements but has no idea about the problems and errors in many of them.
29. Gary S. Becker, Nobel Prize-winning Economist who is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and University Professor of Economics and Sociology at the University of Chicago. Accepts climate change is human driven, argues about discount rate (Stern, not IPCC critic)
30. Paul G. Becker, a former chief meteorologist with the Air Force and former Colorado Springs chapter president of the American Meteorological Society. Only mention appears to be a letter he wrote to a small paper (see link).
31. Dr. David Bellamy, Botanist, a famed UK environmental campaigner, former lecturer at Durham University. A revealing letter exchange with George Monbiot pointed out by S2 in the comments
32. Dieter Ber; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
33. Justin Berk Meteorologist asserted that the "majority of TV meteorologists". BS in meteorology from Cornell
34. Andre and Sally Bernier Meteorologists of WJW-TV, in Cleveland, Ohio. Andre has a BS in Meteorology from Lyndon State College,
35. Dr. Edward F Blick, Professor of Meteorology and Engineering at University of Oklahoma
36. Peter Bloemers, professor of biochemistry, University of Nijmegen NL
37. Sonja A. Boehmer-Christiansen, PhD, Reader, Dept. of Geography, Hull University, UK; Editor, Energy & Environment journal 4 SA
38. Chris C. Borel, PhD, remote sensing scientist, U.S.
39. Dr. Norman Borlaug, known as the father of the "Green Revolution" for saving over a billion people from starvation by utilizing pioneering high yield farming techniques, is one of only five people in history who has been awarded a Nobel Peace Prize, the Presidential Medal of Freedom and the Congressional Gold Medal
40. Paul Bossert; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
41. Brigitte Bossert; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
42. Daniel Botkin, President of the Center for the Study of the Environment and Professor Emeritus in the department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology at the University of California
43. Helgo Bran; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth Dr. John W. Brosnahan develops remote-sensing instruments for atmospheric science for such clients as NOAA
44. Dr. Simon Brassell, of the Department of Geological Sciences at the Indiana University
45. Dr. John Brignell is a UK Emeritus Engineering Professor of Northampton Engineering College who held the Chair in Industrial Instrumentation at Southampton and was awarded the Callendar Silver Medal by InstMC
46. Frank Britton Chemist
47. Adriaan Broere, an engineer and geophysicist, worked in satellite technology NL
48. Bob Breck Chief Meteorologist of WVUE-TV in New Orleans
49. Dr. David B Bredenkamp, Hydrogeologist
50. Georgia D. Brown, an instructor of Geology & Oceanography at College of Lake County in Illinois
51. Harold Brown, an agricultural scientist and professor emeritus at the University of Georgia
52. Donald S. Burke, The Dean of Pittsburgh's Graduate School of Public Health, **
53. Dr. Reid Bryson, the founding chairman of the Department of Meteorology at University of Wisconsin (now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences 2
54. Dr. Tony Burns Chemical Engineer of the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia
55. Nigel Calder, former editor of New Scientist
56. Dan Carruthers, M.Sc., wildlife biology consultant specializing in animal ecology in Arctic and Subarctic regions, Alberta, Canada
57. Dr. Robert.M. Carter, professor, Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia 4 Lots of links and stuff over at Logical Sciences
58. John L. Casey of the Florida based Verity Management Services Inc. (VMS) NASA consultant and former space shuttle engineer
59. Dr. Christopher L. Castro, a Professor of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Arizona **
60. Dr. George Chilingar, USC
61. Tom Chisholm Chief Meteorologist of WMTW ABC Portland, Maine
62. Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville and NASA
63. Dr. Petr Chylek, adjunct professor, Dept. of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax 2
64. Jim Clark Meteorologist TV
65. Ian D. Clark, PhD, Professor, isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada 3
66. Roy Clark Aeronautical engineer made a presentation at an American Chemical Society meeting in Redlands, California,
67. W. Dennis Clark of Arizona State University
68. Robert Cohen, a member of the American Meteorological Society
69. John Coleman, Meteorologist Founder of The Weather Channel
70. Dennis Compayre Polar bear expert **
71. Joseph Conklin Meteorologist
72. Dr. Paul Copper, FRSC, professor emeritus, Dept. of Earth Sciences, Laurentian University, Sudbury, Ont.
73. Piers Corbyn Astrophysicist of the UK based long-term solar forecast group Weather Action
74. Dr. Paulo N. Correa Biologist and Biophysicist
75. Larry Cosgrove Meteorologist said on Fox News Channel
76. Dr. William R. Cotton of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University
77. Vincent Courtillot is the director of the Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris, a member of the Academy of Sciences, a geomagnetism scientist, and president of the Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Section of the American Geophysical Union
78. Richard S. Courtney, PhD, climate and atmospheric science consultant, IPCC 4
79. Dr. Susan Crockford Evolutionary Biologist and Paleozoologist of University of Victoria in Canada
80. Tim Curtin, Economist a former advisor with the EU, World bank, and an Emeritus Faculty member of Australian National University
81. Grant Dade Texas TV's KLTV, a member of both the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association,
82. Joseph D'Aleo served as the first Director of Meteorology at The Weather Channel and was the Chief Meteorologist at Weather Services International Corporation and served as chairman of the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) Committee on Weather Analysis and Forecasting.
83. Dr. Robert E. Davis, a Professor at University of Virginia, a former UN IPCC contributor and past president of the Association of American Geographers
84. Luc Debontridder of the Belgium Weather Institute's Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) 2
85. David Deming, PhD (Geophysics), Associate Professor, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Oklahoma, U.S. 3
86. Roger Dewhurst, of Katikati, a consulting environmental geologist and hydrogeologist
87. Dipl.-Ing. Peter Dietze, independent energy advisor and scientific climate and carbon modeller, official IPCC reviewer, Bavaria, Germany
88. David Dilley, founder of Global Weather Oscillations, Inc
89. Dr. David Douglass of the University of Rochester
90. Dr. Donald DuBois, who holds a PhD in Philosophy of Science, has spent most of his career modeling computer networks for NASA's International Space Station, GE Space Systems, the Air Force, and the Navy
91. Robert Durrenberger, past president of the American Association of State Climatologists 2
92. Dr. Denis Dutton, Associate Professor of Philosophy at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand and recipient of the New Zealand Royal Society Medal for Services to Science and Technology
93. Freeman J. Dyson, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton, N.J., U.S. 3
94. Don J. Easterbrook, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Geology, Western Washington University, U.S. 2
95. Gunter Ederer; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
96. Dr. Michael J. Economides, Professor of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Cullen College of Engineering at University of Houston
97. Bob Edleman, former Chief Engineer of Boeing's Electronic Systems Division
98. Alexander G. Egorov, a researcher with the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in Saint Petersburg
99. Werner Eisenkopf; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
100. Dr. Hugh W. Ellsaesser, physicist/meteorologist, previously with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Calif.; atmospheric consultant.
101. Lance Endersbee, Emeritus Professor, former Dean of Engineering and Pro-Vice Chancellor of Monasy University, Australia 2
102. Gary England, Meteorologist who pioneered the use of Doppler radar weather-forecasting
103. Hans Erren, Doctorandus, geophysicist and climate specialist, Sittard, The Netherlands
104. Robert H. Essenhigh, PhD, E.G. Bailey Professor of Energy Conversion, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, The Ohio State University, U.S. 2
105. Christopher Essex, PhD, Professor of Applied Mathematics and Associate Director of the Program in Theoretical Physics, University of Western Ontario, Canada 3
106. Bill Evans New York's WABC-TV Senior Meteorologist
107. Dr. Cal Evans, Geochemist a prominent researcher who has advised the Alberta Research Council, the Natural Sciences, and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and who is affiliated with the Calgary-based group Friends of Science
108. David Evans, PhD, mathematician, carbon accountant, computer and electrical engineer and head of 'Science Speak', Australia 2
109. Ray Evans, engineer one of the founders of the Australian Lavoisier Group
110. William Evans, PhD, Editor, American Midland Naturalist; Dept. of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, U.S.
111. Dr. John T. Everett, a former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) administrator and UN IPCC lead author and reviewer
112. Jesse Ferrell of AccuWeather
113. Dr. Wilson Flood, of the Royal Society of Chemistry
114. Frederic Fluteau, a geomagnetism scientist with the Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris **
115. Dr. Michael R. Fox, Nuclear Scientist who holds a PhD in Physical Chemistry and is a science analyst for the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii
116. Dr. Neil Frank, former director of the National Hurricane Center
117. Stewart Franks, PhD, Associate Professor, Hydroclimatologist, University of Newcastle, Australia 2
118. Dr. Oliver W. Frauenfeld, a co-author of the 2005 book Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming and a research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Division of Cryospheric and Polar Processes at the University of Colorado
119. Dr. Chris de Freitas, climate scientist, associate professor, The University of Auckland, N.Z. 2
120. Dr. Eigil Friis-Christensen is the director of the Danish National Space Centre 2
121. Bob Foster, geologist director of the Lavoisier Group in Australia
122. Ivan Frolov, the head of Russia's Science and Research Institute of Arctic and Antarctic Regions
123. Brian Fuchs of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln
124. Dr. Serge Galam, director of research at the National Center of Scientific Research (CNRS) and member of a laboratory of Ecole Polytechnique
125. Yves Gallet of the Centre de Research at the Restauration des Musées **
126. Edgar Gartner; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
127. R. W. Gauldie, PhD, Research Professor, Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, School of Ocean Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa
128. Bas van Geel, paleo-ecology professor, University of Amsterdam;
129. Lee C. Gerhard, PhD, Senior Scientist Emeritus, University of Kansas; former director and state geologist, Kansas Geological Survey, U.S. 3
130. Gerhard Gerlich, Professor for Mathematical and Theoretical Physics, Institut für Mathematische Physik der TU Braunschweig, Germany 2
131. Dr. Robert Giegengack the chair of Department of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Pennsylvania
132. Dr. Jeffrey A. Glassman Applied Physicist and Engineer
133. Albrecht Glatzle, PhD, sc.agr., Agro-Biologist and Gerente ejecutivo, INTTAS, Paraguay
134. Agnes Genevey of the Centre de Research at the Restauration des Musées, **
135. Tony Gilland is the science and society director of the UK based Institute of Ideas
136. Dick Goddard Ohio meteorologists TV
137. Indur M Goklany, Ph.D, who has represented the United States at the International Panel on Climate Change and in the negotiations leading to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
138. Fred Goldberg, PhD, Adj Professor, Royal Institute of Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Stockholm, Sweden
139. Dr. Mel Goldstein, a PhD Meteorologist on Connecticut's TV News Channel 8
140. Sergei Golubchikov, Vice President of Russia's National Geocryological Foundation
141. Former California State Climatologist Jim Goodridge, a consultant for the California Department of Water Resources
142. Dr. Laurence I. Gould, chair of the Physics Department at the University of Hartford, former chairman of the New England Section of the American Physical Society,
143. Brian van de Graaff Meteorologist TV
144. Vincent Gray, PhD, expert reviewer for the IPCC and author of The Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of 'Climate Change 2001,' Wellington, New Zealand 5
145. Dr. William Gray, Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU), and head of the schools Tropical Meteorology Project 3 From Logical Science but the best is this interview. One of the emeriti
146. Kesten Green of Monash University in Australia whose Energy and Environment paper (you can watch the movie) was torn apart on Real Climate.
147. Dr. Howard Greyber, a Fellow Royal Astronomical Society and member of the International Astronomical Union,
148. Dr. Michael Griffin, the top administrator of NASA and former head of the Space Department at Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory
149. Eugenio Hackbart of the MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center in Sao Leopoldo - Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil 2
150. Dr. Keith D. Hage, climate consultant and professor emeritus of Meteorology, University of Alberta
151. Robert W. Hahn Chemical engineer
152. Jeff Halblaub Senior Meteorologist of WSI Corporation
153. Morten Hald, an Arctic expert at of the University of Tromso in Norway calls for more paleoresearch and gets put on this list.
154. Michael Hammer who works as a research scientist/engineer for a high technology manufacturer and major worldwide exporter based in Australia
155. James Hammond, a councilor for the American Chemical Society's San Gorgonio section
156. Howard Hayden, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut, U.S. 3
157. Dr. Peter Harris Australian engineer
158. Ross Hays of NASA's Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility, in Palestine, Texas,
159. Wilfried Heck; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth Louis Hissink M.Sc. M.A.I.G., Editor AIG News and Consulting Geologist, Perth, Western Australia
160. David Henderson, a Professor at the Westminster Business School and former Chief economist for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
161. Dr. Ben Herman, past director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Head of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Arizona,
162. Dr. Martin Hertzberg, a retired Navy meteorologist with a PhD in physical chemistry
163. Dr. Robert Higgs, a Senior Fellow for the Independent Institute and who has been a visiting scholar at Oxford University, Stanford University, and a fellow for the National Science Foundation
164. Heinz Hofman; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
165. Rainer Hoffman; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
166. Ferdinand Furst zu Hohenlohe-Bartenstein; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
167. David Holland is a member of the Institution of Engineering and Technology
168. Art Horn, Meteorologist currently operating The 'Art' Of the Weather business
169. Douglas V. Hoyt, senior scientist at Raytheon (retired) and co-author of the book The Role of the Sun in Climate Change; previously with NCAR, NOAA, and the World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland 2
170. Warwick Hughes, a New Zealand earth scientist living in Perth
171. Craig D. Idso, PhD, Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Arizona, U.S.
172. Keith. Idso, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Arizona, U.S.
173. Sherwood B. Idso, PhD, President, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, AZ, USA
174. Andrei Illarionov, PhD, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, U.S.; founder and director of the Institute of Economic Analysis, Russia
175. Dr. Olafur Ingolfsson, a professor from the University of Iceland
176. Yury Izrael, the director of Global Climate and Ecology Institute, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and UN IPCC Vice President,
177. Dr. Dennis Jensen, Nuclear physicist a PhD-trained scientist and a former researcher for Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organization (CSIRO) and the Defence Science and Technology Organization (DSTO),
178. Albert F. Jacobs, co-founder of the group Friends of Science
179. Craig James, Chief Meteorologist of a Michigan NBC TV affiliate
180. Zbigniew Jaworowski, PhD, physicist, Chairman - Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Warsaw, Poland 4
181. Meteorologist Mark Johnson
182. Jon Jenkins, PhD, MD, computer modelling - virology, Sydney, NSW, Australia
183. Wm. Robert Johnston, Physicist who co-wrote the scientific paper in 2007 "Observations of the Ionospheric Projection of the Plasmapause and Comparisons with Relativistic Electron Measurements" which was submitted to the GRL
184. Hub Jongen, electrical engineer NL
185. Wibjorn Karlen, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden 4
186. Olavi Kärner, Ph.D., Research Associate, Dept. of Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Astrophysics and Atmospheric Physics, Toravere, Estonia
187. Joel M. Kauffman, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, University of the Sciences in Philadelphia, U.S. 2
188. David Kear, PhD, FRSNZ, CMG, geologist, former Director-General of NZ Dept. of Scientific & Industrial Research, New Zealand 2
189. Dr. Kelvin Kemm, formerly a scientist at South Africa's Atomic Energy Corporation 2
190. Douglas J. Keenan, a former Morgan Stanley employee and current independent mathematical researcher
191. Aynsley Kellow of the University of Tasmania IPCC Contributing author
192. John Kettley, formerly of the Met Office and the Fluid Dynamics Department at the Bracknell headquarters. Another TV Weather Guy (BBC), worked at the Met Office in the 1970s references that he graduated from something or other but no degrees listed on his web site. Specializes in racecourse and sports event forecasts
193. Madhav Khandekar, PhD, former Research Scientist Environment Canada; Editor "Climate Research" (03-05); Editorial Board Member "Natural Hazards, IPCC Expert Reviewer 2007 4
194. L.F. Khilyuk of the University of Southern California
195. William Kininmonth M.Sc., M.Admin., former head of Australia's National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological organization's Commission for Climatology 4
196. Jasper Kirkby, a research scientist at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research,
197. Paul Knight Penn State Climatologist **
198. Dr. James P. Koermer, a Professor of Meteorology and the director of the Meteorological Institute at Plymouth State University
199. Jan J.H. Kop, M.Sc. Ceng FICE (Civil Engineer Fellow of the Institution of Civil Engineers), Emeritus Professor of Public Health Engineering, Technical University Delft, The Netherlands
200. Professor R.W.J. Kouffeld, Emeritus Professor, Energy Conversion, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands 2
201. Dieter Kramer; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
202. Dr. Gerhard Kramm of the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks
203. Salomon Kroonenberg, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Geotechnology, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
204. Dr. George Kukla, a research scientist with the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University 2
205. Ray Kurzweil, Legendary inventor**
206. Dr. A.T.J. de Laat, who specialized in atmospheric composition and climate research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
207. Hans H.J. Labohm, PhD, economist, former advisor to the executive board, Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands Institute of International Relations) looks to have been visiting fellow, has books on poli sci, The Netherlands 3, Desmogblog has some info, allied to the Tom Harris/Tim Ball NSRP.
208. Dr. Christopher W. Landsea NOAA's National Hurricane Center who served as a UN IPCC
209. Willem de Lange, PhD, Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, School of Science and Engineering, Waikato University, New Zealand 2
210. Dr. Thomas Lavin Biochemistry researcher
211. The Rt. Hon. Lord Lawson of Blaby, economist; Chairman of the Central Europe Trust; former Chancellor of the Exchequer, U.K.
212. Douglas Leahey, PhD, meteorologist and air-quality consultant, Calgary, Canada 2
213. David R. Legates, PhD, Director, Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware, U.S. 2
214. Arthur E. Lemay, a renowned computer systems specialist, Harvard educated
215. Yury Leonov, director of the Institute of Geology at the Russian Academy of Sciences,
216. Nikolaus Lentz; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
217. Marcel Leroux, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Climatology, University of Lyon, France; former director of Laboratory of Climatology, Risks and Environment, CNRS 4
218. Bryan Leyland, International Climate Science Coalition, consultant - power engineer, Auckland, New Zealand 2
219. William Lindqvist, PhD, consulting geologist and company director, Tiburon, California, U.S.
220. Richard S. Lindzen, PhD, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, U.S. 3 From Logical Science and oh yes, here is a goody about how far you can trust Dick.
221. Martin Livermore, Chemist director of the Scientific Alliance
222. Dr. Bjorn Lomborg, author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist" and professor at the Copenhagen Business School. More from Logical Science with links. Eli especially likes Simon Donner's comment "Climate change “skepticism” began with an industry-funded effort to question the science. It has since morphed into questioning whether the effects of climate change would really be so bad, a move I call the Smiling Lomborg."
223. A.J. Tom van Loon, PhD, Professor of Geology (Quaternary Geology), Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland; former President of the European Association of Science Editors
224. John Loufman Ohio meteorologists TV
225. Jonathan Lowe, who specializes in statistical analysis of climate change and holds masters in science, is currently working on his PhD
226. Anthony R. Lupo, PhD, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, Dept. of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri-Columbia, U.S. 2
227. Richard Mackey, PhD, Statistician, Australia
228. Horst Malberg, PhD, Professor for Meteorology and Climatology, Institut für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany
229. Rob Marciano CNN Meteorologist
230. Dr. Richard Mackey Statistician authored a 2007 peer-reviewed study which found that the solar system regulates the earth's climate. The paper was published August 17, 2007 in the Journal of Coastal Research
231. Dr. Jennifer Marohasy, Biologist who has been a field biologist in remote parts of Africa and Madagascar and published in international and Australian scientific journals
232. Nigel Marven UK wildlife documentary maker
233. Augusto Mangini of the University of Heidelberg in Germany 2
234. Galina Mashnich of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
235. Prof. Francis Massen of the Physics Laboratory in Luxemburg and the leader of a meteorological station
236. John Maunder, PhD, Climatologist, former President of the Commission for Climatology of the World Meteorological Organization (89-97), New Zealand 2
237. Alister McFarquhar, PhD, international economist, Downing College, Cambridge, U.K. 2
238. Peter McGurk, Senior Meteorologist with WSI Corporation, a provider of weather-driven business solutions to such clients as CNN, FOX, NBC, American Airlines, Delta, and FedEX
239. Ross McKitrick, PhD, Associate Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Guelph, Canada 4
240. Stephen McIntyre of ClimateAudit.org
241. John McLean, Climate Data Analyst, computer scientist, Melbourne, Australia 3
242. Owen McShane, B. Arch., Master of City and Regional Planning (UC Berkeley), economist and policy analyst, joint founder of the International Climate Science Coalition, Director - Centre for Resource Management Studies, New Zealand 2
243. Bill Meck, Chief Meteorologist for an NBC affiliate
244. Rob Melon, professor of molecular recognition, Utrecht University NL
245. Dr. D. Bruce Merrifield is a former Undersecretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs, Professor Emeritus of the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, and a member of the Visiting Committee for Physical Sciences at the University of Chicago
246. Dr. Alwyn van der Merwe Chemical engineer CoA
247. Fred Michel, PhD, Director, Institute of Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of Earth Sciences, Carleton University, Canada 3
248. Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, research professor of environmental sciences, University of Virginia 2 Bunch of links and stuff from Logical Science and Eli refers you to Pat's real opinion
249. Dr. Daniel W. Miles, a former professor of physics who earned his PhD from the University of Utah
250. Frank Milne, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, signed on to the letter to the Secretary General. Link from Globalization and the Environment
251. Asmunn Moene, PhD, former head of the Forecasting Centre, Meteorological Institute, Norway 2
252. Professor Vivian Moses of King's College and University College in London SA
253. Alan Moghissi of the Institute for Regulatory Science
254. H. Michael Mogil, a 30-year veteran of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), who is certified by the American Metrological Society and currently owns the "How the Weatherworks" consulting firm,
255. Des Moore, former deputy secretary of the federal Treasury in Australia and current director of the Institute for Private Enterprise
256. Alan Moran, PhD, Energy Economist, Director of the IPA's Deregulation Unit, Australia. Link from Globalization and the Environment Take a look at how on earth did Alan Moran get a Ph.D. in public transport economics
257. Lord Christopher Monckton, the Viscount Monckton of Brenchley
258. Sir Patrick Moore, a fellow of the UK's Royal Astronomical Society
259. Dr. Patrick Moore, a Greenpeace founding member
260. Dr. Thomas Gale Moore is a former professor at Michigan State University, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute
261. Dr./Cdr. M. R. Morgan, FRMS, climate consultant, former meteorology advisor to the World Meteorological Organization. Previously research scientist in climatology at University of Exeter, U.K.
262. Dr. Dick Morgan, former director of Canada's Met/Oceano Policy and Plans, a marine meteorologist and a climate researcher at both Exeter University and the Bedford Institute of Oceanography
263. Lubos Motl, PhD, physicist, former Harvard string theorist, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic 2
264. Louis Le Mouël of the Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris
265. Jan Mulderink, a chemical engineer, former research director AKZO Arnhem NL
266. Dr. Tad Murty, former senior research scientist, Dept. of Fisheries and Oceans, former director of Australia's National Tidal Facility and professor of earth sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide; currently adjunct professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa 2
267. John Nicol, PhD, physicist, James Cook University, Australia
268. David Noble of Canada's York University
269. Mark Nolan Meteorologist TV
270. Gary Novak Microbiologist
271. Mr. David Nowell, M.Sc., Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society, former chairman of the NATO Meteorological Group, Ottawa, Canada 2
272. James J. O'Brien, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Meteorology and Oceanography, Florida State University, U.S. 3
273. Professor Emeritus Peter R Odell of International Energy Studies at the University of Rotterdam
274. Cliff Ollier, PhD, Professor Emeritus (Geology), Research Fellow, University of Western Australia 2
275. David Orrell Mathematician
276. Nikolai Osokin of the Institute of Geography and member of the Russian Academy of Sciences
277. Jim Ott, Meteorologist formerly of WTMJ-TV in Wisconsin
278. Dr. Norman J. Page a retired independent geological consultant, rejected climate fears
279. Dr. Nathan Paldor, Professor of Dynamical Meteorology and Physical Oceanography at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem 2
280. Morgan Meteorologist Palmer of Texas TV's KLTV
281. Garth W. Paltridge, PhD, atmospheric physicist, Emeritus Professor and former Director of the Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia 2
282. R. Timothy Patterson, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Earth Sciences (paleoclimatology), Carleton University, Canada 4
283. Dr Benny Peiser, professor of social anthropology, Faculty of Science, Liverpool John Moores University, U.K. 2 Got famous by being wrong
284. Al Pekarek, PhD, Associate Professor of Geology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Dept., St. Cloud State University, Minnesota, U.S. 3
285. Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr., presently senior scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder
286. Ian Plimer, PhD, Professor of Geology, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide and Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia 4
287. Brian Pratt, PhD, Professor of Geology, Sedimentology, University of Saskatchewan, Canada 2
288. Harry N.A. Priem, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Planetary Geology and Isotope Geophysics, Utrecht University; former director of the Netherlands Institute for Isotope Geosciences 3
289. Gwyn Prins of the London School of Economics ** Eco
290. Dr. Andreas Prokoph, adjunct professor of earth sciences, University of Ottawa; consultant in statistics and geology
291. Dr. Tom Quirk, a former University lecturer, fellow of three Oxford Colleges, and a board member of the Australian based Institute of Public Affairs
292. B.P. Radhakrishna, President of the Geological Society of India, 2
293. VK Raina, India's leading Glaciologist
294. Dr. Denis G. Rancourt, Professor of Physics and an Environmental Science researcher at the University of Ottawa,
295. Steve Rayner of Oxford ** Eco
296. Bernie Rayno, Senior Meteorologist with AccuWeather
297. Josef Reichholf, who heads the Vertebrates Department at the National Zoological Collection in Munich
298. William E. Reifsnyder Meteorologist Forestry
299. Dr. Paul Reiter, professor, Institut Pasteur, Unit of Insects and Infectious Diseases, Paris, France. Expert reviewer, IPCC Working group II, chapter 8 (human health) 2
300. Dr. Renato Angelo Ricci, emeritus professor of physics at the University of Padua
301. Dr. Peter Ridd, a Reader in Physics at James Cook University in Australia who specializes in Marine Physics and who is also a scientific adviser to the Australian Environment Foundation
302. Rolf Riehm engineer
303. Thomas Ring, Chemical Engineer who has a degree from Case Western Reserve University, 2. Wrote a letter to the editor is about it. Link from Andy Dessler
304. Dr. Art Robinson, founder, Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, Cave Junction, Ore. 2
305. Alex Robson, PhD, Economics, Australian National University 2. Link from Globalization and the Environment
306. Erich Roeckner of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology **
307. Colonel F.P.M. Rombouts, Branch Chief - Safety, Quality and Environment, Royal Netherlands Air Force
308. R.G. Roper, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, U.S.
309. Rob Roseman of Colorado, who earned a Masters degree in Meteorology
310. Arthur Rorsch, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Molecular Genetics, Leiden University, The Netherlands 2
311. Dr. Hugh Ross, who has conducted research on quasars and galaxies
312. Rob Scagel, M.Sc., forest microclimate specialist, principal consultant, Pacific Phytometric Consultants, B.C., Canada 2.
313. Arthur T. "Terry" Safford III, Meteorologist a retired Lt Col. of the U.S. Air Force
314. Gabriel Salas, Geologist who leads a UN High Commission for Refugees funded team
315. Jeffrey P. Schaffer, now a professor at the Department of Science & Mathematics at Napa Valley College in California
316. Tom Scheffelin, Air resources engineer who estimates on-road vehicle emissions for the California Air Resources Board,
317. Dr. Chris Schoneveld, a retired exploration geophysicist
318. Hans Schreuder Analytical chemist
319. Mark Scirto Chief Meteorologist of Texas TV's KLTV,
320. Joel Schwartz, who holds a master's degree in planetary science from the California Institute of Technology A merican Enterprise Institute's (AEI)
321. Stephen Schwartz of Brookhaven National Lab **
322. Bruce Schwoegler, former U.S. Navy meteorologist and Boston broadcast meteorologist
323. Peter Sciaky who has served as a chief geologist for companies and written scientific reports
324. Olaf Schuiling, Geochemistry professor, University of Utrech
325. Tom V. Segalstad, PhD, (Geology/Geochemistry), Head of the Geological Museum and Associate Professor of Resource and Environmental Geology, University of Oslo, Norway 3
326. Dr. Vladimir Shaidurov of the Russian Academy of Sciences
327. Gary D. Sharp, PhD, Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study, Salinas, CA, U.S. 3
328. Dr. Nir Shaviv, one of Israel's top, young, award-winning scientists
329. Glen Shaw, a Professor of Physics at the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks
330. Dr. Thomas P. Sheahen, an MIT educated physicist, author
331. Clinton H. Sheehan of Ouachita Baptist University in Arkansas
332. Gary Shore Iowa Meteorologists TV
333. C. Robert Shoup Geologist authored a summer 2007 scientific study for the American Association of Petroleum Geologists
334. Alan Siddons former radioactive chemist !!!
335. Paavo Siitam, M.Sc., agronomist, chemist, Cobourg, Ont. 2
336. S. Fred Singer, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia and former director, U.S. Weather Satellite Service 4
337. Dr. Rainer Six; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
338. George E. Smith, a member of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Institute of Physics
339. Lenny Smith of the London School of Economics, who co-authored a study on the uncertainties of climate models for the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Oxford
340. L. Graham Smith, PhD, Associate Professor, Dept. of Geography, University of Western Ontario, Canada 2
341. Dr. Joe Sobel of Accuweather, winner of the American Meteorological Society 2005 Award for Broadcaster of the Year
342. Dr. Willie Soon Harvard-Smithsonian Center Astrophysicist. A member of the comedy team of Soon and Baliunas from Logical Science. He got $60K for his part in the Oregon Deception Project
343. Dr. Oleg Sorochtin of the Institute of Oceanology at the Russian Academy of Sciences 2
344. James Spann Meteorologist of Alabama ABC TV
345. Roy W. Spencer, PhD, climatologist, Principal Research Scientist, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama, Huntsville, U.S. 3
346. Chief Meteorologist Karl Spring of Duluth, Minnesota, who is certified by both the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association
347. Dr. Walter Starck Australian marine scientist
348. Don Stewart, Former New Zealand Science Ministry analyst a UK-based researcher in geological and biological history
349. Peter Stilbs, TeknD, Professor of Physical Chemistry, Research Leader, School of Chemical Science and Engineering, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology), Stockholm, Sweden
350. Bill Steffen Meteorologist of Grand Rapids, Michigan
351. Herb Stevens, Meteorologist one of the original meteorologists at The Weather Channel
352. Dr. Hans von Storch, the Director of Institute for Coastal Research of the GKSS Research Centre, a professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg **
353. Philip Stott of the University of London
354. Henrik Svensmark Danish National Space Centre 2
355. Dr. Gordon E. Swaters, professor of applied mathematics, Dept. of Mathematical Sciences, and member, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Research Group, University of Alberta
356. Dr. Elwynn Taylor, Professor of Meteorology at Iowa State University and a former project scientist with the National Aeronautics and Space Administratio**
357. Mr. George Taylor, Dept. of Meteorology, Oregon State University; Oregon State climatologist; past president, American Association of State Climatologists 3
358. Dr. Mitchell Taylor, the director of wildlife research with the Arctic government of Nunavut,
359. Uwe Tempel; The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
360. Hendrik Tennekes, PhD, former Director of Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute 3
361. Heinze Thieme. The Climate Manifest of Heiligenroth
362. Dick Thoenes, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Chemical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands 2
363. Tim Thornton, who holds degrees in Meteorology and Computer Science, publishes the website "The Global Warming Heretic.
364. Alan Titchmarch, Horticulturalist a prominent naturalist who hosts the popular "The Nature of Britain" program on the BBC,
365. Dr. Richard Tol, the director of the Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, and a prominent economist with Hamburg University in Germany ** Tol makes the point in the comments that his argument is with Stern's analysis of the costs of climate change not with the IPCC description of that change and the nature of the problems
366. Professor Anthony Trewavas of the Institute of Molecular Plant Sciences at the University of Edinburgh SA
367. Dr. Ralf D. Tscheuschner
368. Kyly Underwood Meteorologist Duluth
369. Anton Uriarte, a professor of Physical Geography at the University of the Basque Country in Spain 2
370. Brian G Valentine, PhD, PE (Chem.), Technology Manager - Industrial Energy Efficiency, Adjunct Associate Professor of Engineering Science, University of Maryland at College Park; Dept of Energy, Washington, DC, U.S. 2
371. Dr. G. Cornelis van Kooten, professor and Canada Research Chair in environmental studies and climate change, Dept. of Economics, University of Victoria
372. Gerrit J. van der Lingen, PhD, geologist and paleoclimatologist, climate change consultant, Geoscience Research and Investigations, New Zealand 3
373. Dr. Jan Veizer, professor emeritus of University of Ottawa
374. Dr. Chris Walcek is a professor at the University at Albany in NY and a Senior Research Associate at the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center
375. George Waldenberger Iowa Meteorologists
376. Len Walker, PhD, power engineering, Pict Energy, Melbourne, Australia
377. Dr. James Wanliss of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, who received a prestigious award from National Science Foundation in 2004
378. Dr. Fred Ward, who earned his PhD in Meteorology from MIT and is a former meteorologist for Boston TV
379. Kenneth E. F. Watt Zoologist
380. Anthony Watts, former meteorologist for KHSL-TV, a CBS-TV affiliate
381. Dr. Charles Wax of Mississippi State University and past president of the American Association of State Climatologists
382. Dan Webster, Ohio meteorologists
383. Edward J. Wegman, Bernard J. Dunn Professor, Department of Statistics and Department Computational and Data Sciences, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S. 2
384. Dr. David Whitehouse, UK Astronomer
385. Chuck Wiese Meteorologist
386. Professor William Wilkinson, who was the former deputy chief executive of British Nuclear Fuels SA
387. Stephan Wilksch, PhD, Professor for Innovation and Technology Management, Production Management and Logistics, University of Technology and Economics Berlin, Germany
388. Nico Willemse engineer CoA
389. Kevin Williams Meteorologist of the New York based WEATHER-TRACK and Chief Meteorologist at WHEC-TV in Rochester
390. Dr. Richard C. Willson of Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research
391. Dr. Ian Wilson of the University of Southern Queensland, Australia, specializes in statistical analysis and astrophysics research, and was a former operations astronomer at the Hubble Space Telescope Institute in Baltimore, MD
392. Dr. Duncan Wingham, Professor of Climate Physics at University College London and Director of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling, has presented evidence that Antarctic ice is growing. **
393. Boris Winterhalter, PhD, senior marine researcher (retired), Geological Survey of Finland, former professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, Finland 4
394. Bruno Wiskel Geologist of the University of Alberta, teaches extension courses at the Botanical Garden. There is also a Dr. Barry Wiskel who is staff in Materials Science
395. Sylvan H. Wittwer of the Michigan State University
396. David E. Wojick, PhD, P.Eng., UN IPCC Expert Reviewer, energy consultant, Virginia, U.S. 4
397. Jan Pieter van Wolfswinkel, a retired mechanical engineering professor, TU Delft
398. James Woudhuysen, a professor of Forecasting and Innovation at De Montfort University in Britain
399. Raphael Wust, PhD, Lecturer, Marine Geology/Sedimentology, James Cook University, Australia
400. Sun Xian Chinese study
401. Yury Zaitsev, an analyst with Russia's Institute of Space Studies
402. Lev Zeleny, director of the Institute of Space Research at the Russian Academy of Sciences and an Academy corresponding member
403. Lin Zhen-Shan Chinese study
404. Dr. Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of Scientists and a retired Professor of Advanced Physics at the University of Bologna in Italy, 4
405. Dr. Jeff Zweerink of the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA)

OISM's Baby UPDATE: Entire alphabetized list now available at Rabett Run

Back in the good old days, OISM had a petition centered around a misleading fake paper authored by Eli's friends Robinson, Baliunas and Soon and fronted by Fred Seitz. They brought in ~17000 suckers among which were

2660 Physicists, Geophysicists, Climatologists, Meteorologists, Oceanographers, and Evironmental Scientists Signers

which in the telling became 2660 climate scientists. Only problem was that most of these innocents, were that, an amalgamation of condensed matter, nuclear and theoretical physicists with only a handful of real climate scientists, among which were the usual suspects. That petition had about as much climtological and related expertise as what you can get on the street for signers against nuclear energy. Lots of media got sucked in before it became clear that what you had was a disinformation campaign funded through the Marshall Institute.

Friday, Mark Morano, James Inofe's climate incubus brought us

Over 400 Prominent Scientists Disputed Man-Made Global Warming Claims in 2007

and the usual main stream media got sucked in. Of course, just looking at the list tells you that there was something fishy going on as Joe Romm points out on Grist. Eli being a RTFR kind of guy wanted to see who the 400 are, so he had the lab bunnies make a little list by reading through Morano's opus. And sure enough there were the usual suspects, but the denialist bench is thin as Andy Dessler pointed out recently, and Eli had done a few years ago.

But were there 400?

Well yes, 405, by Bunny Labs count after we ditched the duplicates, of which ~45 were TV weather heads so that leaves 360 or so. The list is undergoing further analysis, which will be completed as soon as we stop laughing

UPDATE: The 400 Weather Channel -

1. Alexandre Aguiar Meteorologist of Brazil's MetSul Weather Center
2. David Aldrich Meteorologist TV Fox 29 Philadelphia PA
3. Chris Allen Meteorologist Kentucky Fox affiliate WBKO
4. Steve Baskerville Meteorologist CBS Chicago affiliate WBBM-TV
5. Joe Bastardi Meteorologist AccuWeather
   
6. Justin Berk Meteorologist WMAR Channel 2 in Baltimore
7. Sally Bernier Meteorologist of WJW-TV, in Cleveland, OH
8. Bob Breck Meteorologist of WVUE-TV in New Orlean LA
9. Tom Chisholm Meteorologist of WMTW ABC Portland ME
10. John Coleman, Meteorologist Founder of The Weather Channel
11. Larry Cosgrove Meteorologist WeatherAmerica formerly of WSYX Columbus OH
12. Joseph D'Aleo Meteorologist Weather Channel Weather Service International
13. Gary England, Meteorologist KWTV Channel 9, the CBS affiliate in Oklahoma City, OK
14. Bill Evans Meteorologist WABC-TV New York NY
15. Jesse Ferrell Meteorologist AccuWeather
    
16. Dick Goddard Meteorologist WJW Cleveland OH
17. Dr. Mel Goldstein, Meteorologist Connecticut's TV News Channel 8
18. Brian van de Graaff Meteorologist WJLA Channel 7 Washington, DC
19. Jeff Halblaub Meteorologist of Weather Service International Corporation
20. Art Horn, Meteorologist currently operating The ‘Art' Of the Weather business
21. Craig James, Meteorologist WOOD Grand Rapids MI NBC TV affiliate
22. Mark Johnson, Meteorologist WEWS Cleveland, OH
23. John Loufman, Meteorologist WOIO Cleveland OH
24. Rob Marciano, CNN Meteorologist CNN
25. Peter McGurk, Meteorologist Weather Service International Corporation, a provider of weather-driven business solutions to such clients as CNN, FOX, NBC, American Airlines, Delta, and FedEX
26. Bill Meck, Meteorologist LEX18 Lexington KY NBC affiliate
27. Mark Nolan Meteorologist TV
28. Jim Ott, Meteorologist formerly of WTMJ-TV in Wisconsin
29. Morgan Palmer of Texas TV's KLTV
30. Bernie Rayno, Meteorologist with AccuWeather
31. Mark Scirto Meteorologist of Texas TV's KLTV
32. Bruce Schwoegler, Boston broadcast meteorologist WBZ
33. Gary Shore Meteorologist KCAU-TV Sioux City, Iowa
34. Dr. Joe Soebel Meteorologist Accuweather
    
35. James Spann Meteorologist of WABC 33/40 Birmingham AL
36. Karl Spring, Meteorologist KBJR-TV Duluth, MN
37. Bill Steffen Meteorologist WOOD TVof Grand Rapids, MI
38. Herb Stevens, Meteorologist WNYT TV Albany, NY
39. Kyly Underwood Meteorologist KBJR-TV Duluth MN
40. George Waldenberger Meteorologists KJRH TV Tulsa OK
41. Dr. Fred Ward, Meteorologist (former)WNAC-TV TV
42. Anthony WattsMeteorologist (former) for KHSL-TV, a CBS-TV affiliate
43. Dan Webster, Ohio meteorologists
44. Chuck Wiese Meteorologist (former) KOIN TV Portland OR
45. Kevin Williams Meteorologist WHEC-TV Rochester NY
46. Joseph Conklin Meteorologist website climate police

UPDATE: Added 3 names from AccuWeather ear tip to Steve Bloom

Were there surprises? Well yes our friend Richard Courtney apparently has been signing himself as Dr. Richard, and even Richard Courtney, Ph.D. on letters to various important Canadian PMs. and UN Secretary Generals. Stoat in discussing the official nutters list mentioned that the rumor was that Courtney was skating about on his qualifications. Eli has located them (page 17)

Richard is also an Accredited Methodist Preacher. He is a founding Member of the Christ and the Cosmos Initiative that explores the interactions of religious and scientific ideas. The Initiative started in the UK but became active in 28 countries.

Richard avoids confusion about him in his scientific and religious activities by rarely citing his academic achievements, but his material science qualifications include a DipPhil (Cambridge), a BA (Open) and a Diploma (Bath).

A DipPhil is not a Doctor of Philosopy, but a Diploma in Philosophy. The University of Cambridge offers one year postgraduate courses leading to Diplomas, but not in Philosophy, at least not now. We could speculate further, but as Desmogblog put it with their usual delicacy

But Richard Courtney is hardly a source to be taken seriously. In fact, there is every reason to believe that if he has a Ph.D. at all, he got it out of a box of cracker jacks.

However, Richard has managed to get himself as an expert witness in front of a House of Commons Select Committee on Energy and also the House of Lords Select Committee on the Environment. Tim Ball is jealous.

What really happened in Bali

Andy Revkin has a number of letters from folk who were at Bali, and they are all interesting, but Eli would like to point you to two of them. The first (actually the fourth), and most informative, is from Peter Riggs, a trade policy expert, and has much of the detail about the negotiations missing in media reports. Let Eli whet your appetite

The first intervention in the Plenary dealing with Item 4 came from China. It was a ‘point of order.’ And while phrased diplomatically, it was basically a scathing attack on the way that the morning’s plenary process had unfolded, convening at a time when the G-77+China were still discussing alternative text elsewhere. On the dais (and projected onto the two acre-sized screens arrayed at the front of the hall) were Minister Witoelar and Yvo de Boer, puffy-eyed and exhausted. It fell to de Boer to answer, and twice during his short reply he had to stop to compose himself. Not out of anger, but from sheer exhaustion and frustration. He was trying not to burst into tears. He replied to the Chinese that he simply hadn’t been aware that the G-77 was still discussing Agenda Item 4 in side-meetings when the plenary had reconvened. His voiced drained out of him, and suddenly he got up and simply walked out of the hall, trailing a couple of very surprised aides. (Having composed himself—or possibly having laid down for a twenty-minute nap—he later reentered the hall and took his seat.)

And then the moment of truth: India presented the alternative text from the G-77+China. The essential point about this alternative text is that it takes into account “differences in national circumstances” amongst developing countries—that is, not just in relation to Annex I, but in relation to each other—but without the binding reduction commitments that the U.S. had sought from countries like India and China. From the developing world, this was seen as a compromise that indeed not all developing countries could be treated equally—the bigger emerging economies might have to do more—but it preserved flexibilities for them to pursue those commitments at a time to be worked out later—thus, the “Bali Road Map” over the next two years.

The other letter that caught Eli's attention was actually the first, from Thomas Goreau, a delegate representing a number of actors, including the

Delegations of Jamaica (my home island and a member state of the UN) , and of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Center (an Intergovernmental Organization representing almost all Caribbean states), while also representing the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development Partnership in New Technologies for Small Island Developing States (as Coordinator of the Partnership), the Global Coral Reef Alliance (an international NGO), and Yayasan Karang Lestari (Protected Coral Foundation, an Indonesian NGO that runs the world’s largest coral reef restoration project).

Goreau's letter is a white hot indictment, the temperate conclusion of which you can read below

That China and India, with their thousands of years of advanced civilization and science, should have fallen for this instead of leading the way towards cleaner sustainable development paths, is truly sad. And by placing their short sighted greed, ignorance, and stupidity first, the unholy polluting coalition of oil producers and coal burners has told the world that they don’t care who else they hurt by continuing their dirty addiction, killing reefs and drowning islands and coasts, and imperiling millions in poor countries.

Even worse, they have shown that they do not care for the rights of future generations, not even of their own people. That is why this shameful agreement is a capital crime against the environment that must be undone as soon as the Bush regime leaves office.

Eli favors those who speak their mind.

Where's the bellhop with the ice?


Cryosphere Today is having some problems, but we can look at the satellite images. December 1980 was pretty close to zero anomaly, today, we are still negative. Stoat may be on very thin ice.

UPDATE: Steve Sadov thinks there has been a major freeze up. The ice cover is still much behind normal in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic. You're on thin ice there Steve.



Also they cryosphere today has had a major meltdown and the time series graphs are currently wrong because of corrupted data. They say this will be fixed in about a week. Happy New Year to the UIUC crew who maintain an excellent site for the rest of us and hopefully they will take time out to celebrate Christmas.
UPDATE: Dearest Timo (see the comments), cryosphere today simply says on the web-page from which these figures are taken:

Historic snow cover data not displayed on these images. Snow cover data is displayed only for most recent dates.

they appear to have started to include the snow cover sometime in 2005.

Censoring Science

is a new book by Mark Bowen on la Affair Deutsch/Hansen and other follies. Bowen, clearly has talked directly to Hansen. In addition to the usual Barnes and Noble and Amazon pages, there is a rather long review at DailyKos, with an interesting tidbit

"Consider if you will the New Horizons mission to Pluto. It has zero to do with climate change. But the probe carries a nuclear power supply, meaning it cannot launch without an executive order for national security reasons. All an unscrupulous administration need do then, to sow doubt and bitter division against the scientists and staff studying earth’s climate within the broader NASA organization, is imply through unofficial, unwritten backchannels that that order will never come, until certain researchers play ball."

Eli Rabett's Simple Plan to Save the World

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change process requires cooperation by all parties. While the Bush administration was not able to derail the process at Bali, it was only stopped when the EU said it would not participate in next months planned Hawaii climate charade if there were no progress at Bali. The weakened worldwide position of the US, economically, politically and militarily diminishes the ability of any US government to get its way, but rapid progress may require another path.

The immediate problem is how to take global action that does not require global agreement, but only agreement among a few important and willing actors, which rewards early adapters and does not allow the unwilling to block action. The mechanism needs to be immune to off shoring, and be neutral between domestic and foreign producers. Eli believes that carbon trading proposals are aimed in the wrong direction. Rabett's Simple Plan for Saving the World has the potential of meeting these requirements. It differs from any of the other proposals that I have seen in those ways.

UPDATES: in italic Eli slept well and the good eco faries visited his dreams also Bellette (see comments)

Nations wishing to make major progress on decreasing greenhouse gas emissions should introduce emission taxes on all products. These taxes should be levied on imports as well as domestic goods at the point of sale, and should displace other taxes, such as VAT, sales taxes, and payroll (e.g. social security, health care) in such a way that tax revenues are constant, and distributed equitably.

These should be introduced as an Emissions Added Levy (avoiding the bad jokes). EAL would be imposed on sale for emissions added in the preceding step and inherent to the consumption of the product, as would be the case for heating oil and gasoline. Manufacturers would pay the EAL on electricity they bought, and incorporate this and the levy on emissions they created into the price of the product they sell.

Imports from countries that do not have an EAL would have the full EAL imposed at the time of import. The base rate would be generic EALs based on worst previous practices in the countries that do have EALs, which would be reduced on presenting proof that the actual emissions were lower.

All countries with EAL systems would reserve a portion (say 5%) for assisting developing countries with adaptations (why not use acclimations?) and mitigating programs.

By basing the levy on emissions rather than carbon all greenhouse gases stand on a common level, sequestration is strongly encouraged as well as such simple things as capturing methane from oil wells and garbage dumps (that gets built into the cost of disposal). The multipliers would come from CO2 equivalents on a 10 year basis.

The process can be effective without across the board agreement which means the ability of countries such as the US to bargain the process down is decreased. Further, early adopters will control the process and establish the base rates in concert. Imagine a world wide EAL system controlled by the early adapters market denominated in yen or euro. The effect will advantage them their currencies in the same was as the oil market being denominated in $ has benefitted the dollar.

If large enough chunks of the world economy, for example, the EU and Japan adopt this, manufacturers world wide have to follow across the board no matter where they are. There are not going to be separate lines to produce whatever for North America and Europe in China. And yes, as in all things there would be some gaming of the system. It’s the price you pay for lawyers and economists.

See, told you it was simple.

Slouching from Gomorrah

Bali, as Kyoto before it was about establishing a position from which the world could negotiate about meeting the climate change challenge. The necessity of emerging with an agreement meant that the principles each had a blocking power. In such a situation you only get a major step forward if each wants something that the others can accept. This was not the case, because as Al Gore presciently said in his speech preceding the final negotiations by days

I am not an official of the United States and I am not bound by the diplomatic niceties. So I am going to speak an inconvenient truth. My own country, the United States, is principally responsible for obstructing progress here in Bali. We all know that, but my country is not the only one that can take steps to ensure that we move forward from Bali with progress and with hope.

Those of you who applauded when I spoke openly about the diplomatic truth here have a choice to make. You can do one of two things here. You can feel anger and frustration and direct it at the United States of America, or you can make a second choice. You can decide to move forward and do all of the difficult work that needs to be done and save an open, large, blank space in your document, and put a footnote by it, and when you look at the footnote, write the description of the footnote: This document is incomplete, but we are going to move forward anyway, on the hope, and I'm going to describe for you why I think you can also have the realistic expectation, that that blank will be filled in.

This is the beginning of a process that is designed to culminate in Copenhagen two years from now. Over the next two years the United States is going to be somewhere it is not now. You must anticipate that.

Eli is not happy that his country is behaving badly. The opprobrium the US government representative received was well deserved, and we, especially those who live in the US, must work towards the goals that Gore set forth.

At Bali, with the exception of the US, the world came together. The current US administration was isolated and forced to accept an outcome which can allow progress. Much to do in the next year. John McCain and all of the Democratic candidates clearly would allow the Bali process to go forward.

Read or listen to Gore's speech. Andrew Light's comments at Grist are worthwhile

Bali Rants

In support of our Science Rant Contest, Eli brings you Bali Rants:

First up from Washington Monthly, Yvonne, come on down Yvonne

"And then we come to the Bali conference. When, years from now, you have to look into the eyes of your impoverished grandchild, standing there in soiled, tattered clothes, and try to explain to him why he must be consigned to utter destitution, mention to him the name of "Bali" second only to Kyoto in the annals of hackneyed, globalist socialistic scams. Tell him that Mr. Ban Ki Moon and Al Snore sold your country down the river, ripped up our capitalist traditions and replaced them with gutter hippie sham morality. It's high time we stopped letting these environmentalists push us around!"

To be continued. . .

There'll be a hot time in Greenland this time

Plenty of news on the ice cube front today, with a roundup at the AP. Stoat and Co might want to start hedging

This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions."

All this is emerging at the Fall AGU meeting, as part of which, NASA has put together a panel and a set of web presentations on tipping points and where the Earth stands.

The bottom line is that if you thought things were going to hell in a handbasket you were an optimist. (From the AP)

2007 shattered records for Arctic melt in the following ways:

• 552 billion tons of ice melted this summer from the Greenland ice sheet, according to preliminary satellite data to be released by NASA Wednesday. That's 15 percent more than the annual average summer melt, beating 2005's record.

• A record amount of surface ice was lost over Greenland this year, 12 percent more than the previous worst year, 2005, according to data the University of Colorado released Monday. That's nearly quadruple the amount that melted just 15 years ago. It's an amount of water that could cover Washington, D.C., a half-mile deep, researchers calculated.

• The surface area of summer sea ice floating in the Arctic Ocean this summer was nearly 23 percent below the previous record. The dwindling sea ice already has affected wildlife, with 6,000 walruses coming ashore in northwest Alaska in October for the first time in recorded history. Another first: the Northwest Passage was open to navigation.

• Still to be released is NASA data showing the remaining Arctic sea ice to be unusually thin, another record. That makes it more likely to melt in future summers. Combining the shrinking area covered by sea ice with the new thinness of the remaining ice, scientists calculate that the overall volume of ice is half of 2004's total.

• Alaska's frozen permafrost is warming, not quite thawing yet. But temperature measurements 66 feet deep in the frozen soil rose nearly four-tenths of a degree from 2006 to 2007, according to measurements from the University of Alaska. While that may not sound like much, "it's very significant," said University of Alaska professor Vladimir Romanovsky.

- Surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean this summer were the highest in 77 years of record-keeping, with some places 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, according to research to be released Wednesday by University of Washington's Michael Steele.

Greenland, in particular, is a significant bellwether. Most of its surface is covered by ice. If it completely melted — something key scientists think would likely take centuries, not decades — it could add more than 22 feet to the world's sea level.

However, for nearly the past 30 years, the data pattern of its ice sheet melt has zigzagged. A bad year, like 2005, would be followed by a couple of lesser years.

According to that pattern, 2007 shouldn't have been a major melt year, but it was, said Konrad Steffen, of the University of Colorado, which gathered the latest data.

"I'm quite concerned," he said. "Now I look at 2008. Will it be even warmer than the past year?"

Other new data, from a NASA satellite, measures ice volume. NASA geophysicist Scott Luthcke, reviewing it and other Greenland numbers, concluded: "We are quite likely entering a new regime."

But remember, being realistic puts people off according to to the do nothing crowd.

Picture from NCAR AGU preview by Steve Roberts

Best Science Rant

Eli, being a gentle bunny, has never mastered the art of science ranting. In support of the call for a Science Debate (go there and sign up in support), and Dano's pitiful effort, he offers all (including John S in the pro division) a chance to win the best science rant award. You can enter on the behalf of others. Later in the day we will be posting links from Rabett Run. (UPDATE: Weekend?, Beats shopping for gifts)

The OED defines a rant as a "high-flown, extravagant, or bombastic speech or utterance; a piece of turgid declamation; a tirade," and you can find links to some wonderful examples at Slate in an article on the rant by Daniel Seidel. The NY Subway is famed for its rant inducing properties, but surely in the mix of usual suspects we can find at least one is so discombobulated by the IPCC that he or she could compete?

UPDATE: Remember, this is but the preliminary event. With the coming of the new year, we will have the second annual S. Fred Competition, and Eli is happy to announce that the great man himself will have an entry. God, on the other hand, has not published in 2007 and is not eligible.

Calling for a science debate

Since about 1900 science and its significant other, technology have become the dominant influence on the life and death of those living on this sphere, and often to the joy of their families on the births and especially survival of newborns. Dad Rabett's father, Eli's grandfather, was born in 1884 before flush toilets, about 20 years after Maxwell first stated his unification of electricity and magnetism, but in the same year that Heaviside and Gibbs reformulated it into modern vectorial form and three years before Hertz demonstrated the reality of electromagnetic waves (radio). Atoms were postulated, but their structure unknown. All four of Eli's grandparents were born before just about any technology used today, and their lives were significantly extended by the creation of modern medicine, but even more so by such technological commonplaces as water treatment. His mom has made it into the Internet age. Awareness and some understanding of science and engineering is necessary for policy makers although many behave as if this were not the case.

Chris Mooney and Sheril Kirshenbaum at Intersection have organized a petition asking the candidates for the US Presidency to debate about science issues (and Eli would explicitly add technology). Please get behind this. Please get involved by registering at the petition site. The casual acceptance of scientific ignorance by policy makers is a serious danger to the survival of you and the ones you love.

Documenting the Atrocities

A just issued report from the US House of Representatives Oversight Committee confirms what we all knew

The evidence before the Committee leads to one inescapable conclusion: the Bush Administration has engaged in a systematic effort to manipulate climate change science and mislead policymakers and the public about the dangers of global warming.

In 1998, the American Petroleum Institute developed an internal “Communications Action Plan” that stated: “Victory will be achieved when … average citizens ‘understand’ uncertainties in climate science … [and] recognition of uncertainties becomes part of the ‘conventional wisdom.’” The Bush Administration has acted as if the oil industry’s communications plan were its mission statement. White House officials and political appointees in the agencies censored congressional testimony on the causes and impacts of global warming, controlled media access to government climate scientists, and edited federal scientific reports to inject unwarranted uncertainty into discussions of climate change and to minimize the threat to the environment and the economy.

Without going into the chapter and verse, there is an indicative paragraph towards the end of the document dealing with how the EPA denied a petition that they regulate CO2 emissions

CEQ (Council on Environmental Quality, a White House Office) and others inserted a comment after the conclusions of the National Academy of Sciences on global warming were included in the draft of the petition denial. In response to National Academy quotes like “the changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities,” the comment read: “the above quotes are unnecessary and extremely harmful to the legal case being made in this document. This is not a survey of the science, but a legal argument.”220 (endnote)

Ken Peel of the CEQ further instructed EPA to “revise all science text in collaboration with DOJ.”214 Science and facts being inconvenient things further instructions noted

The following sentence was in the original text of the draft: “At present, the best scientific information indicates that if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, changes are likely to occur.”218 A comment was inserted after this sentence: “this strong statement does not support EPA’s position.”219

An undated CEQ document amplifies this point. The first line of the document listing CEQ edits to the draft denial of the petition to regulate CO2 states simply: “Vulnerability: science.”221 Later in the document, CEQ notes: “Lead sentence is trouble, as it leans too much on science.”222 Far from being the touchstone for CEQ edits, CEQ apparently saw the science of global warming as an obstacle standing in the way of its desired result: the refusal to regulate motor vehicle emissions that contribute to global warming.

Names changed to protect the innocent (and guilty)

While googling about, Eli found these gems, which describes his daily travail to a T. What follows has been anonymized to avoid embarrassing the fellow sufferer who wrote them, but be assured that this is the typical way in which universities work (or don't). We start with the arrival of the young and newly recruited on campus, soon after which he discovers:

The scale of the management problems at the University has begun to become clear, but I gradually discover more ways around the more incompetent parts of the university’s bureaucracy. I am still surprised, though, about how many people dislike the system and how little they do to change it.

The only way to work around a dysfunctional system is to find a few key sensible people, and get them on your side. Newcomers tend to think that the oldtimers have not tried (and failed) to break through. Our passivity is a recognition that the administration likes the system it has and will not change it. The VP for fiscal affairs once told me why we have such a complicated and poorly functioning purchasing system: "If it worked you could spend money".

Parts of the financial administration are structurally underfunded (e.g., they cannot afford computers), not because there is not enough money but because money is misallocated. Decisions that require little interdepartmental coordination and a lot of speed and service (e.g., software, hardware purchases) are centralised while decision that require substantial coordination and occasional intervention (e.g., space allocation, curriculum) are decentralised.

Everyone at Non-Research Habituated Universities and a mess of the R1s is now nodding their heads, and wanting to drink a beer and trade war stories with this guy. The only worse thing than an understaffed administration is one that is in the process of computerization. That too happens . . . .

After a relatively smooth period, the administrative problems reached new and unprecedented levels. The retirement of the departmental administrative assistant coincided with the switch from hand-written, single-entry bookkeeping to computerized, double-entry bookkeeping. The resulting chaos was quite large, with bills going unpaid for 4 months or longer, suppliers refusing to deliver, and underpaid PhD students not getting their travel costs reimbursed.

Ours don't get their travel, their stipends AND their tuition paid, which is why I have a fairly large loan fund.

The situation was compounded by the fact that the central administration lost (!) the Director's contract, taking away the legal and financial basis of the research unit. Fortunately, the department had a copy as well. The human resources office maintained its general level of incompetence with error rates around 90%. It’s all a bit tiresome.

90% wrong is something we celebrate at my place, the problem is you never know which 5-10% they will get right. Keeps you on your toes it does. But don't think you can settle in

The move landed us in Outer Mongolia. Not only are the facilities (library access, photocopying, amenities) worse than at the main building, the distance to both colleagues and students, and the bad connection by public transport hamper productivity and cooperation. The sad thing is that the move to Outer Mongolia was perfectly avoidable if the University administration had been more active and the Department more cooperative.

Our funding agencies have inquired with me about the implementation of the contract. I cannot answer that question as the University to date has not shared this information with me, despite repeated requests. However, there seem to be notable deviations. The University has also chosen to reinterpret its contract with me. Uncertainties about his contract, invoked by sluggish behaviour in the human resources offices, have led the best person we recruited to accept a position at a foreign university.

Eli just got two contracts signed 1.5 years after the money came in. Of course the key to this is to never be allowed to know who is working on what. Administrators like to keep their faculty in dark rooms and shovel manure over them. From this tasty mushrooms grow. Still, you should always be careful about what you wish for

Another source of unrest was the reforms initiated at breakneck speed. Our department was merged with five others. Institutes will cease to exist, and schools and centers formed. Furthermore, research and education are at to be coordinated with other states. Reform is hard, needed, and strong leadership is necessary too, but the current pace is frantic and the direction not always clear.

A nice way to say that the people at the top are clueless as to the knife work going on below and the bodies that the jackals haul out each night. Watch your back.

On the whole been there. Done that. Am looking forward to retirement.

More nonsense from Eli Rabett

Tales of Ethon and Eli are now featured on the report of all good things about the Forschungsstelle Nachhaltige Umweltentwicklung der Universitaet Hamburg. Still, it is good to know that a Professor has a sense of humor. We are helping him with the sense tho.

Eli's doings are part of the first two items, but the fourth is an interesting article in the Handelsblatt, which the bunnies taking have translated

The Economic Consequences of Climate Change

By Oliver Voss

In spite of many studies, the economic consequences of climate change are subject to debate. Even small changes in the complex models shift the results. Worse, how do you calculate the effects of irreversible damage, illness, deaths or the extinction of families of animal and plants

Many proposals to rescue the World sound dangerously adventurous: the Chemistry Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen would pump tons of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. This would reflect a portion of the sunlight slowing global warming. NASA is examining the development of a sun shade for the globe, consisting of tens of thousands of plastic pieces in space. The costs of such rescue operations are 25 to 140 billion dollars a year. A lot of money, but peanuts compared to potential damages that could be caused by global warming.

The British economist Nicholas Stern stirred up the world a year ago in the Stern Review prepared for the British Government. He estimated that annual losses of 5.5 trillion (US) euros or 20 percent of global economic output would be the worst economic consequences if nothing were done about climate change. Stern message: Climate protection is worthwhile financially, because in order to prevent the worst, the world community would have to devote only one percent of its yearly economic output to the fight against global warming.

Since then new studies have continued to appear on possible damage from climate change and the cost of counter-strategies. The fluctuation range of calculations is enormous. Claudia Kemfert, Environmental Economist of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), estimates that unlimited climate change would cost Germany not 20, but "only" 0.5 percent of its gross domestic product. And the Uno-Climate Agency estimates the cost for curbing climate change as not 1, but only 0.12 percent of the World Social product.

The studies are based on different assumptions and methodologies, so theybcan only be compared in limited ways. But even within individual investigations the range of estimates is immense.

"Half of the uncertainty comes from the climate models, and the other half from the economic calculations," says Richard Tol, environmental economist at the Economic and Social Research Institute Dublin. According to DIW-researcher Kemfert the economic calculations especially are on thin ice. "There are many, many unknowns and uncertainties are exponential."

One difficulty is that the costs of climate protection are incurred in the near future, but the benefits are felt only much later. To take generational equity into account, economists build the so-called discount rate {n.B.probably means social discount rate} into their climate models. It is "perhaps the most important parameter," says economist Tol. The higher the discount rate, the lower the value of future benefits. As a result early costs have a higher value. The lower the discount rate, the greater - over a long period - the costs. A discount rate of zero means that future generations will be treated just like today. Stern used in his calculations, a relatively low discount rate of 0.1 percent. This is one of the main reasons his model leads to particularly high costs - and it has earned him much criticism from other economists.

In addition to the discount rate, there are other difficulties for estimating the economic consequences of climate change, how do you calculate irreversible damage, disease, deaths or the extinction of entire species of animals and plants? Such questions are not treated in many models. The same goes for the cost of nuclear energy, both because of millennia long storage costs for radiating nuclear waste, as well as the scarcely predictable risks of a meltdown. The damage estimates of the "most likely accident" in a German nuclear power plant of ranges between 500 billion {500E9} up to five Bill. Euro {5E12}. Such a wide range is typical for other issues.

Some of our other friends feature at FNU

For Magnus

A short, but appropriate excerpt from Viking Kittens. Click the link to blow your mind and for a lot better video




UPDATE: In 6.5 ns after posting, Munin points out that the source of goodness is Joel Veitch at rathergood.com (the URL was wiped out by the Blogger fuzzies) and points to his favorite

The uncertainty principle

Over Thanksgiving, Eli was out in Colorado visiting Ethon, [for those who don't know, a rather large bird specializing in liver pecking] who offered a ride in the mountains. Coming down the hill at lickety split units of distance per second, Eli wondered if Ethon knew where the cliff was, and if he had a clue where to start stopping to avoid going over the edge. Ethon pointed out that he could fly and wondered what Eli's problem was. Eli silently wrapped his ears around his eyes, you don't mess with a big liver pecker but you can prey.

This is the situation that Nicholas Stern identified, and that Marty Weitzman tip-toed up to but did not quite go over the edge on in his review of the Stern Review which Eli reviewed yesterday. Weitzman concludes that

In my opinion, public policy on greenhouse warming needs desperately to steer a middle course, which is not yet there, for dealing with possible climate-change disasters. This middle course combines the gradualist climate-policy ramp of ever-tighter GHG reductions that comes from mainstream mid- probability -distribution analysis (under reasonable parameter values) with the option value of waiting for better information about the thick-tailed disasters. It takes seriously whether or not possibilities exist for finding out beforehand that we are on a runaway-climate trajectory and –without “leaving it all up to geoengineering”– confronts honestly the possible options of undertaking currently politically incorrect emergency measures if a worst-case nightmare trajectory happens to materialize.

This might have been a good policy ten or fifteen years ago, when some, including Eli were arguing for it, but today we are a lot closer to the cliff, wherever it may be, and probably closing rapidly on the beyond this point we are going over point (see for example the IPCC WGII take on where the cliffs might be) . Weitzman and other to be named later assume that there is lots of time to organize a response. Hansen and now Pachauri think not. The Roadrunner never tells.

Sternly he said

UPDATED MATERIAL: An exchange between Wm Nordhaus and Nicholas Stern in Science 7/13/07

Testimony by Henry Jacoby to the US Congress 2/13/07

A Note on the Ethical Implications of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change Charles Kenny in the Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 16, No. 4, 432-440 (2007)

The 'Stern Review' and its Critics: Implications for the Theory and Practice of Benefit-Cost Analysis Daniel H. Cole Social Science Research Network

The Stern Review a Deconstruction, Richard Tol and Gary Yohe

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, William Nordhaus 5/3/2007

A missed opportunity: The Stern Review on climate change fails to tackle the issue of non-substitutable loss of natural capital, Eric Neumayer Global Environmental Change Volume 17, Issues 3-4, August-October 2007,Pages 297-301

The Journal of Economic Literature has two long reviews of the Stern Review. One by William (Ted) [as pointed out by Richard Tol] Nordhaus and one by Marty Weitzman (link correctred thanks to gz). Eli has read the Weitzman review, and will look at the Nordhaus one later this week. Weitzman finds the choices that Stern made for discount rates arbitrarily chosen to reach a predetermined conclusion.

We know that the choice of discount rate drives both the Stern Report and most other economic analyses of how to deal with climate change. This is related to the long period over which climate change happens.

Global climate change unfolds over a time scale of centuries and, through the power of compound interest, what to do now is hugely sensitive to the discount rate that is postulated. In fact, it is not an exaggeration to say that the biggest uncertainty of all in the economics of climate change is the uncertainty about which interest rate to use for discounting. In one form or another this little secret is known to insiders in the economics of climate change, but it needs to be more widely appreciated by economists at large. The insight that the strong conclusions of the Review are driven mainly by the low assumed discount rate has been picked up and commented upon already by several insider critics.[1]

and further

The present discounted value of a given global-warming loss from a century hence at the non-Stern annual interest rate of r = 6% is one hundreth of the present discounted value of the same loss at Stern’s annual interest rate of r = 1.4%. The disagreement over what interest rate to use for discounting is equivalent here in its impact to a disagreement about the estimated damage costs of global warming a hundred years hence of two orders of magnitude. Bingo!

Weitzman recognizes the fat tail risks, e.g. risks with extreme costs at the high end of the predicted global temperature change and the need for insuring against them.

This paper makes five basic points about the economics of climate change.
1: The discount rate we choose is all important and Stern’s results come from choosing a very low discount rate.
2: We are a lot less sure about core elements of discounting for climate change than we commonly acknowledge because critical puzzles, projections, and ambiguities are yet unresolved.
3: Standard approaches to climate change (even those that purport to treat uncertainty) fail to account fully for the implications of large consequences with small probabilities.
4: Structural parameter uncertainty that manifests itself in the thick tails of reduced-form probability distributions –not risk –is what likely matters most.
5: Gathering information about thick-tailed uncertainties representing rare climate disasters (and developing a realistic emergency plan were they to materialize) should be a priority of research.

To anticipate my main finding, spending money now to slow global warming should not be conceptualized primarily as being about optimal consumption smoothing so much as an issue about how much insurance to buy to offset the small chance of a ruinous catastrophe that is difficult to compensate by ordinary savings. While I am (along with most other economist /critics) skeptical of Stern’s formal analysis, I believe that the Review’s informal emphasis on climate-change uncertainty can be recast into sound analytical arguments that might justify some of its conclusions.

Still he does not accept how Stern valued them

Instead, the Review dances around the significance of the aggregative analysis of Chapter 6 by arguing that conclusions from IAMs [a type of economic model] are suggestively useful but not crucial to the basic story line that anything above ultimate stabilization at ~500 ppm CO2e and ~3 C is self evidently just too risky for the planet to bear.

but really never comes to detailed grips with what it is that has scared Stern about going beyond these limits, and which as Eli pointed out agrees with what has freaked out the WGII working group. Weitzman is not of the be happy go lucky crowd, but recognizes that Sern

. . .consistent with what an uncharitable critic might see as a philosophy of focusing on the gloomier outcomes in a heuristic-intuitive attempt to include extreme damages, because in Stern’s language “when we try to take due account of the upside risks and uncertainties, the probability-weighted costs look very large.” Actually, the Review goes well beyond 5% in its “multi-dimensional” approach by making numerous literary and numerical allusions to the dark possibilities lurking in the tails of the distribution of possible outcomes (and then, as it were, rubbing salt in the wound of numerical calibration by noting how centrist it is actually being by not choosing much higher probability-weighted distant-future damages, which could be as big as 20%-35% when one considers catastrophes that might materialize after 2105). Stern also estimates the annual costs of its ambitious abatement strategy as being equivalent to about 1% of GDP (which seems rather on the low side by maybe a factor of two or more, but that is not so relevant here).

The question for the Stern Review analysis then effectively becomes: is it worthwhile to sacrifice costs~1% of GDP now to remove damages ~5% of GDP a century from now?

and how this plays out in the uncertainty of economic modeling

If the conclusion from the last section –that what to do about global warming depends over whelmingly on the imposed interest rate –is seen as disappointing, then a second conclusion is likely to seem downright unnerving. As noted, the choice of appropriate discount rate is itself extraordinarily sensitive to seemingly-arcane modeling details like the value of the climate-change investment beta and how the asset-return puzzles are resolved. One interpretation of the asset-return puzzles, which could also have some relevance for the economics of climate change, is the idea that investors are disproportionately afraid of rare disasters. These rare disasters are not fully re‡flected in the available data samples that, being limited, are naturally deficient in coverage. Besides, even if we had an infinite time series of past observations, they are of restricted relevance in an evolving world whose features are always changing and whose past never fully repeats itself.

and most clearly in

The IPCC does not extend its projections beyond 2105 on the basis that predictions into the 22nd century are too uncertain, but it seems unavoidable that the reduced-form probability of Delta T > 6 C increases substantially above 3% after the next century just from the enormous inertial lags for what by then will be in the climate-change pipeline. Societies and ecosystems whose average temperature has changed in the course of a century or so by
Delta T > 6 C located in the terra incognita of what any honest economic modeler would have to admit is a planet Earth reconfigured as science fiction, since such high temperatures have not existed for some tens of millions of years.

It is important to note that 6C is a red herring, because seriously bad things happen even at 3 C. 6C would be a total disaster. Weitzman concludes that

it is much better to go directly through the front door with the legitimate concern that there is a chance, whose subjective probability is small but diffuse (thereby resulting in a dangerously-thickened left tail of comprehensive-consumption growth rates), that global warming may eventually cause disastrous temperatures and environmental catastrophes. If one accepts that global climate change is as likely an arena as any for a valid application of the general principle that thickened tails from uncertain structural parameters must dominate expected-discounted- utility calculations, then many hard questions need to be asked.

And of course we meet at the end in the middle.

In my opinion, public policy on greenhouse warming needs desperately to steer a middle course, which is not yet there, for dealing with possible climate-change disasters. This middle course combines the gradualist climate-policy ramp of ever-tighter GHG reductions that comes from mainstream mid- probability -distribution analysis (under reasonable parameter values) with the option value of waiting for better information about the thick-tailed disasters. It takes seriously whether or not possibilities exist for finding out beforehand that we are on a runaway-climate trajectory and –without “leaving it all up to geoengineering”– confronts honestly the possible options of undertaking currently politically incorrect emergency measures if a worst-case nightmare trajectory happens to materialize. The overarching concern of such a middle course is to be constructive by having some semblance of a game plan for dealing realistically with what might conceivably be coming down the road. The point is to supplement mainstream economic analysis of climate change (and mainstream ramped-up mitigation policies for dealing with it) by putting serious research dollars into early detection of rare disasters and by beginning a major public dialogue about contingency planning for worst-case scenarios perhaps akin to the way Americans (at their best) might debate the pros and cons of an anti-ICBM early warning system. It may well turn out that the option value of waiting for better information about catastrophic tail events is negligible because early detection is impossible, or it is too expensive, or it comes too late (this is Stern'’s line, and it might, or might not, happen to be true), or because nothing practical can be done about reversing greenhouse warming anyway –so we should stop stalling and start making serious down payments on catastrophe insurance by cutting CO2e emissions drastically. But these are conclusions we need to reach empirically, rather than prejudging them initially.

Hopefully many will read the Review.

That Strange Weather

A new and interesting climate blog from Julien Emile-Geay, a post-doc in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech. His area of research is how tropical climate affects the global system, with an emphasis on the ENSO. Emile-Geay does not post often (yet), but his posts are worth reading. The first was his take on An Inconvenient Truth, and his recent two (one, two) posts on Loehle's provocation (open link to paper) in Energy and Environment is worth looking at. Lest you think that provocation is, well, not civil, here is what Loehle said:

My purpose in doing the study was to get my foot in the door that other proxies produce a different result than tree rings, which everyone is hooked on. I have achieved my purpose and if you think I did a crappy job, please repeat the study in a proper manner. I don't have my lifework tied up in this. Maybe we could collaborate on the remake?

Emile-Geay also hates Blogger, which speaks well for him.

Return of Fat Bird

Eli and Ms. Rabett have been quite worried about Ethon. The poor creature absorbed three hard blows in a short time, banishment from the Wikipedia (we remain suspicious about a certain carnaevor's role), Roger Pielke Jr., going on sabbatical and Roger Sr. transferring to the de mortuis nil nisi bonum dicendum est category on the Rabett Run blogroll. Last we saw Ethon in the Fall, he was quite bedraggled and lacking in appetite. We were thus quite happy to greet a sleek and well livered bird who came by after Thanksgiving.

Turns out Roger Jr. is back and pecking away, Roger Sr.'s blog has risen but he doesn't want to hear about anything he doesn't want to hear about so the humor is gone, and Ethon, well the Wikipedia has added an A to his name, but admits that the bird's mission in life, may have been his mission in myth.

Ethon reported that had spent turkey week at the Best of All Possible Worlds Resort attending the Happy Face Conference hosted by Ted Nordhaus, which featured invited talks by the Walmart Deep Discounting Professor of Economics, Richard Tol, and Bjorn Lomborg who lectured the audience on things he agreed he knew nothing about, and, of course, to be very civil, the audience agreed with him. Newt Gingrich gave the keynote. Still, as it must at these things, the disruptive name of Nicholas Stern came up and Eli thought, like 1066, it would be a good thing to contrast the every so pessimistic predictions of Stern

with the sunny information contained in the IPCC WGII report. Fortunately this can be done in pictures.

Or as Nordhaus would sing

A closing salvo in the 2007 hurricane wars

As pointed out by an anonymouse troublemaker (ain't we all) Mann and Co have fired a late salvo at the end of the 2008 hurricane season in GRL

We obtain new insights into the reliability of long-term historical Atlantic tropical cyclone (‘TC’) counts through the use of a statistical model that relates variations in annual Atlantic TC counts to climate state variables. We find that the existence of a substantial undercount bias in late 19th through mid 20th century TC counts is inconsistent with the statistical relationship between TC counts and climate.

Mann, Sabetelli and Neu find that the undercount is one (1.2 to be precise) by comparing the observed number of Atlantic tropical cyclones to that predicted using three proxys: sea surface temperature, El Nino and NAO indicies. The undercount bias is adjusted to give the best fit.

UPDATE: In the comments Henry Anonymouse asked for the full Fig. 1. (see below). By eyeball, it is pretty clear that the sea surface temperature is the driver, with El Nino and the NAO serving as modulating factors.

Hitting ourselves with a rake

Eli was reading Andrew Dessler's blog over at Gristmill. Andrew, conscientious and fair minded lad that he is, has been looking for a denialist that would come to his class and debate climate change. He thought that Steve Milloy might have a stable of such available for guest appearances, but alas, when he wrote Steve at demanddebate.com Milloy wrote back that there was no one available.

Andrew points out that what we are seeing is a few of the usual quacking heads recycled endlessly. Now this bears on issues that Eli has been thinking about but has not been able to quite verbalize, hence the recent ennui over here.

First, scientists are as bad as journalists about understanding the public and providing needed and useful information for others. The seeds of this are different, but the results the same. As we know journalists would much rather write about the controversy than the issue. Thus someone like Andrew Revkin will take a complex issue like climate change, project the multidimensional problem onto a line, seek the extremes, say Greenpeace and our beloved S. Fred's SEPP, and then find ignorant posers like Newt Gingrich and Bjorn Lomborg in the middle. Michael Tobis nails this, follow the links.

UPDATE: Michael prefers you start at the bottom, Reply to Revkin, not at the top, but Eli did provide instructions to follow the links, he can't help it if no one listens.

Scientists, on the other hand, are pretty much fixed not on what they know, which since they know it for more than ten minutes, is already boring, but what they don't and are excellent in telling people that they don't know everything. The average person hears that everything is up in the air, something that pro denialists are quite happy to chant in chorus. Stoat often provides excellent illustrations of this.

Consider what Andrew has discovered. The Overton window has moved. Pat Michaels, Richard Lindzen and the rest of the emeriti might as well move into the old scientists home with Frederick, S. Fred and Co.

Now is NOT the time to bring them back for a nostalgia tour. What Andrew needs to do is find people like, for example, James Annan, Gerald North and others (Eli is prepared to be corrected on the choice of protagonists) who form the more conservative wing of the IPCC consensus, to debate the radical wing, the Hansenites as it were.

Andrew's job is to offer his class real choices based on real science, rather than the delusional drivel offered by the loony .

Eli is a bit burnt out

Things have been frantic the last few weeks at Rabett Labs, and Eli is a bit frazzled. Don't look for anything until Monday. A happy Thanksgiving to everyone in the US.

How decisions are made elsewhere

Without comment, but part of Eli's series on extraterrestrials, from Science this week:

Robotics offer new possibilities for studying and modulating animal behavior. Halloy et al. (p. 1155; see the news story by Pennisi) observed collective decision-making by mixed groups of cockroaches and autonomous minirobots. The robots, similar in size (though not in shape) to the cockroaches, were coated in a blend of cuticular hydrocarbons that mimic the natural cockroach cuticle. The robots and the insects made shared decisions regarding choice of shelter, and the robots could modulate the collective decision-making process and produce a behavior pattern--choice of an inappropriate shelter--not observed in groups of cockroaches alone. Thus, a small number of robots can change the global pattern by altering feedbacks between individuals in the system.

Think globally, act locally, save moneyOne of the simplest ways to save energy and money is to have a light colored roof. It the summer a black or dark roof absorbs the suns rays and heats up, a lighter colored roof reflects much of the light. In the winter the darker roof is a much more efficient radiator of solar energy than a lighter one. A few days ago, Eli was up pretty high in a building that overlooked a bunch of row houses in a seedy to improving neighborhood, and he saw that most of the roofs were light, even on the houses that had not been tarted up. So he decided to use Google maps to take a look at the area he lives in. There are very few dark roofs left. Eli suspects that progress has falsified what the EPA says

Over 90% of the roofs in the United States are dark-colored.

Take a look at your neighborhood. The web page continues about dark roofs

These low-reflectance surfaces reach temperatures of 150 to 190°F (66 to 88°C) and contribute to:

• Increased cooling energy use and higher utility bills;
• Higher peak electricity demand, raised electricity production costs, and a potentially overburdened power grid;
• Reduced indoor comfort;
• Increased air pollution due to the intensification of the "heat island effect"; and
• Accelerated deterioration of roofing materials, increased roof maintenance costs, and high levels of roofing waste sent to landfills.

In contrast, cool roof systems with high reflectance and emittance stay up to 70°F (39°C) cooler than traditional materials during peak summer weather. Benefits of cool roofs include reduced building heat-gain and saving on summertime air conditioning expenditures. By minimizing energy use, cool roofs do more than save money – they reduce the demand for electric power and resulting air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

Why it was the European Warm Period
and the Very Little Ice Age

Recently, Eli got tangled in a toodo at Tamino's (where are the bouncers when you need them) with one Leif Svalgaard, who looks at solar insolation for a living. Eli played but a small role in the proceeding. To make the story very short (and indeed it went on more and more and more and almost lead the mild mannered T to close up the comments)

Svalgaard propounds (go read Tamino) that there is no difference in solar insolation between solar cycle minima extending back to the year dot, and the year dot includes our beloved Maunder minima. Eli went and RTF AR4 on this, and indeed the solar gang has changed its tune, not as far as Svalgaard, but certainly a major change from the TAR.

The magnitude of the long-term trend in solar irradiance remains uncertain. A reassessment of the stellar data (Hall and Lockwood, 2004) has been unable to confirm or refute the analysis by Baliunas and Jastrow (1990) that implied significant long-term solar irradiance changes, and also underpinned some of the earlier reconstructions (see Section 2.7). Several new studies (Lean et al., 2002; Foster, 2004; Foukal et al., 2004; Y.M. Wang et al., 2005) suggest that long-term irradiance changes were notably less than in earlier reconstructions (Hoyt and Schatten, 1993; Lean et al., 1995; Lockwood and Stamper, 1999; Bard et al., 2000; Fligge and Solanki, 2000; Lean, 2000) that were employed in a number of TAR climate change simulations and in many of the simulations shown in Figure 6.13d.

In the previous reconstructions, the 17th-century ‘Maunder Minimum’ total irradiance was 0.15 to 0.65% (irradiance change about 2.0 to 8.7 W/m^2; radiative forcing about 0.36 to 1.55 W/m^2) below the present-day mean (Figure 6.13b). Most of the recent studies (with the exception of Solanki and Krivova, 2003) calculate a reduction of only around 0.1% (irradiance change of the order of –1 W/m^2, radiative forcing of –0.2 W/m^2; section 2.7). Following these results, the magnitude of the radiative forcing used in Chapter 9 for the Maunder Minimum period is relatively small (–0.2 W/m^2 relative to today).

Which if true (and this is going to be very short) leads one to the conclusion that the little ice age was very little and very local and may have had a lot more to do with volcanic activity then much else. Leaving us with the European Warm Period. There they won't even go out on a large tree trunk (Section 2.7 of WGI)

Prior to direct telescopic measurements of sunspots, which commenced around 1610, knowledge of solar activity is inferred indirectly from the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotope record in tree rings and ice cores, respectively, which exhibit solar related cycles near 90, 200 and 2,300 years. Some studies of cosmogenic isotopes (Jirikowic and Damon, 1994) and spectral analysis of the sunspot record (Rigozo et al., 2001) suggest that solar activity during the 12th-century Medieval Solar Maximum was comparable to the present Modern Solar Maximum. Recent work attempts to account for the chain of physical processes in which solar magnetic fi elds modulate the heliosphere, in turn altering the penetration of the galactic cosmic rays, the flux of which produces the cosmogenic isotopes that are subsequently deposited in the terrestrial system following additional transport and chemical processes. An initial effort reported exceptionally high levels of solar activity in the past 70 years, relative to the preceding 8,000 years (Solanki et al., 2004). In contrast, when differences among isotopes records are taken into account and the 14C record corrected for fossil fuel burning, current levels of solar activity are found to be historically high, but not exceptionally so (Muscheler et al., 2007).

Which leaves us precisely here

Who framed Roger? Rabett

Let Roger Revelle Speak for Himself
Blame the Lab Lemming for the title change (see comments)

Stoat has stumbled back across the S. Fred Singer malloying of Roger Revelle and the associated SLAPP suit against Justin Lancaster by Singer. What we have to add to the tale is a link to the letter that Revelle's collaborator Walter Munk and the director of Scripps sent to the Oceanographic Society, Edward Frieman commented on Singer's Cosmos club article and the attaching of Revelle's name to it. After Revelle's death, Munk and Frieman write

"One year later, in a discussion of Senator Gore's book Earth In Balance, Gregg Easterbrook notes that Senator Gore failed to mention that "'before his death last year, Revelle published a paper that concludes, 'The scientific basis for greenhouse warming is too uncertain to justify drastic' action at this time.' "

from which Easterbrook concluded that CO2 emissions were "far less hazardous than originally feared". As usual, you can RTFR, but for the link shy, they point out

The key is the use of the word drastic. Roger's last written statement on the subject was "What Can We Do About Climate." presented at the AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science) session, Climate Change: Scientific Uncertainties and Policy Responses in New Orleans on 16 February 1990. It outlines a possible set of actions designed to mitigate or delay climatic warming. It includes attempts to modify society's use and mix of fuels. While these may not be viewed as drastic, there is also no evidence that he believed that "emissions... are far less hazardous than initially feared."

We have already blogged on Revelle's non drastic recommendations in Roger and Jim, pointing out that they were not so far from what Jim Hansen is recommending today. Thus it is revealing that Singer, in a letter to Lancaster wrote:

P.S. The editor of Cosmos has kindly sent me a copy of a short note received from Walter Munk and Ed Frieman. Apparently, they are concerned that an article written by Newsweek journalist Gregg Easterbrook, distors some of Roger's views, and I believe they wish to put their concerns on the record. We do not defend Easterbrook's interpretations or extrapolations, and frankly we feel that theirs [Munk and Frieman] would be a much more positive step than the one you [Easterbrook] suggest.

Which, if Singer is to be believed (don't bet on this), means that he accepted Revelle's 6 points.

Specific Examples of Dysfunctional Decision-Making in Psychotic Populations

Does this description taken from an article by Martin Paulus in the recent Science issue on decision making remind you of some?

Substance-use disorders. Various deficits in decision-making have been reported in people with substance-use disorders (24). Specifically, these individuals do not appropriately take into account outcomes that occur sometime in the future versus those that occur now, and they therefore discount delayed rewards at significantly higher rates than do comparison subjects (25–27). Some have argued that this behavior occurs because of an underlying disposition of impulsivity rather than a substance-induced problem (28). This presumes a discounting model of impulsiveness (29) (impulsivity is a direct consequence of an increased attenuation of rewards as a function of delay), which is supported by the finding that the degree of temporal discounting is correlated with ratings of impulsivity (30). Thus, altered discounting may be a predisposing characteristic but not a consequence of years of substance use, because individuals reporting illicit drug use at a younger age tend to discount the value of future hypothetical rewards more steeply than do their peers (31).

Individuals with substance-related problems, irrespective of the substance used, perform poorly on the Iowa gambling task (IGT) (32–36), which measures the degree to which individuals select small immediate gains associated with long-term gains (advantageous option) over large immediate gains associated with long-term losses (disadvantageous option). These decision-making problems occur with and without concomitant working memory or executive-functioning problems, suggesting that decision-making is not simply a result of impairments in executive functioning. . . .

Addicted individuals either show attenuated learning of selecting advantageous options or do not choose preferentially advantageous options over disadvantageous ones. It is not clear which behavioral processes or neural systems are responsible for this deficit. . . . However, it is not clear whether these deficits are related to abnormal orbitofrontal functioning, a consequence of years of fossil fuel use, related to poorer outcomes, or even generalizable to other decision-making situations. . . .

Taken together, there is substantial evidence for altered behavioral decision-making in substance-using individuals, irrespective of the behavioral probe that was used. These dysfunctions include altered processing of future outcomes, reduced ability to adapt to short- versus long-term gains, selection of suboptimal choices based on probability, and/or reduced ability to incorporate outcomes into altering the preference structure of available options. Nevertheless, it is not yet clear whether these dysfunctions are due to primary differences in establishing the preference structure of the available options or, alternatively, represent an attempt to generate a preference structure that is optimal for an individual with an altered homeostasis.

A word or two altered, but not very many.

Noel, Noel, a bit early a bit late


From Reuters

MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Noel, whose rains have killed at least 108 people in the Caribbean, strengthened into a hurricane in the Atlantic on Thursday as it moved away from the Bahamas toward Bermuda, U.S. forecasters said.

The center of Noel was about 1,300 km west-southwest of Bermuda by 8 p.m. (0000 GMT) and its maximum sustained winds had reached near 120 kph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Noel is now a Category 1 hurricane, the lowest level on the Saffir/Simpson scale.

And an update on the number of named storms this season. Should end up right on the forecast.