Friday, November 02, 2007

Noel, Noel, a bit early a bit late

From Reuters

MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Noel, whose rains have killed at least 108 people in the Caribbean, strengthened into a hurricane in the Atlantic on Thursday as it moved away from the Bahamas toward Bermuda, U.S. forecasters said.

The center of Noel was about 1,300 km west-southwest of Bermuda by 8 p.m. (0000 GMT) and its maximum sustained winds had reached near 120 kph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Noel is now a Category 1 hurricane, the lowest level on the Saffir/Simpson scale.

And an update on the number of named storms this season. Should end up right on the forecast.


Dano said...

Note the high number of deaths. Because it went over a poor country. Poor people on islands can't go far as environmental refugees, but on continents it's a lot easier to move. We must figure out a way to deal with the many more coming Katrina-level events.



Anonymous said...

Not to sound selfish, but I do hope Noel brings much needed rain to the southeast. If this drought we're experiencing doesn't end soon, our lush, green region will start looking like the desert southwest...Yuck!

Marion Delgado said...

Wasn't it Svalgaard who said this season would be a disappointment to those who accept the scientific consensus on climate change?

Anonymous said...

Come on. Noel just made it into hurricane status. Truly unfortunate that any deaths anywhere resulted. But Katrina level- get real Dano. Marion, just nip on over to CA to see the level of hurricane activity- not named storms which have become a joke this year, but actual length of storm periods. Very low level, so this season has been a real low period. You faith warmers really are stretching the truth.

EliRabett said...

There were two cat 5s that hit land. It wasn't the US tho. Noel has a lot of water and is causing a lot of damage.

Anonymous said...

The Globe and Mail is reporting it's going to hit Nova Scotia Canada. That must be bad as nothing ever happens in Canada.

- Geoff

Anonymous said...

The crowing over at CA did seem somewhat at variance with the impact of the 2 cat 5's that Eli mentions. But they (the hurricanes, not the CA crowd) didn't hit us, so who cares? Is there a measure of energy released by year? Seems like two cat 5's is alot of heat moved around. And for the the civilian mice, what are the criteria for naming? And a review of the criteria for "tropical depression" and "tropical storm". for extra credit.
Note to self: trace origin of pejoratives "faith warmers and related "warmist". When do these first appear in the blogosphere?
White-footed mouse

David B. Benson said...

Seems to be a forecast that Noel is going to rain on southern Greenland.

Anonymous said...

How about some analysis of the ACE index or PDI index? This might help you in looking at some other measures (hint: COAPS)

Anonymous said...

Definition of faith warmer
-one who believes proponents of AGW do not have to archieve their data and expect all others to believe them
-one who believes AGW is causing tree ring width to both increase and decrease
-one who believes in weather, yes weather, teleconnections over thousands of kilometres
-one who believes AGW is causing ice increase and decrease on greenland. Also the G in AGW does not include on the Southern Hemisphere
-one who believes that global 1940-1970s cooling was caused by american/european industry pollutants, but current significant increases in local pollutants, eg out of asia, is not causing a current global cooling
one who believes that last 30 years is all the data that is needed to be examined and climate events are unprecedented in this 30 year period
- one who does not accept that said unprecedented events are not unprecedented either in terms of absolutes or trends in last 100 years, let alone 1000 years

Anonymous said...

I missed another defining point. Faith warmers, like the pathetic grub that is aon of above, who says because big hurricanes don't hit US, people don't care- faith warmers have a particular craving for big hurricanes to continually hit the US as the country must be made to suffer.

Anonymous said...

This is the anon that said of your July 31st perdiction that we should revisit your prediction in November.

EliRabett said...
I think I'm forecasting an intense season. If a storm gets going everything I see out there says it will intensify strongly.

Are you claiming a successful prediction? Because if you are suffering from a clear case confirmation bias and a strong dose of reality is needed.

Marion Delgado said...

The people who are pinning their "scientific" beliefs on a discredited economic religion out of 1930s Austria are talking to US about confirmation bias, faith-based science (even though their "side" has all the anti-evolutionists who claim microorganisms can't evolve resistance), and needing a dose of reality?

Their little cargo cult is getting smaller and smaller, and hence, shriller and shriller. I can't wait for the pathetic squawks that will come when they no longer have any corporate-subsidized scientists to cite, because even they will have ceased to be dead-enders.

Also, it's entertaining in a dark way that they still have a "we are the world - or the only part that needs measuring" - mentality. Just like they had with the "warmest year" psychosis.

Anonymous said...

Hey marion thats really out of left field. I know we're not talking, and you're never let an off topic post chance go by, and this is an old site, but even by your standards this is strange.

Anonymous said...

The question I have, and I don't know the answer, just throwing it out here: Are all the named tropical storms actually tropical storms?

-- MA