Tuesday, July 22, 2014

The Future Today

Over at ATTP, Rachel, playing while Wotts is away, asks about community driven solutions to climate change.  Pekka misses the point in one comment (there are others in the thread which is worth reading, by Pekka and others)

Governments have had some role in those technologies as well, but what has made exactly these fields to grow at an exceptional rate, has not been the government. It’s worthwhile to ponder, what leads to the huge success of some developments, but not of the others. One factor is certainly that technology development has revolutionized data and signal processing, while most other technologies have not shown potential for anything comparable.
Eli was not as nice as he could be, pointing out that government is a vital player in anything that has to do with anything
Government had nothing to do with the coming of the railroads, road traffic or air travel. OK Pekka?
You could add electrical distribution networks and pipelines to that.  In this regard Eli would like to point to a map of the future today


More than there are gas stations inside the Périphérique.

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Stigma for fossil fuel companies, the reverse for the churches that dump them

World Council of Churches, Unitarian Universalists, United Church of Christ, and many smaller/regional church denominations and affiliated organizations have established climate divestment policies. Others are percolating - the Methodists are studying their investment policy, the Presbyterians are first going to try to persuade the companies to give up their core business model (good luck with that!)* and then we'll see them and others consider this issue.


People involved in climate divestment and had also been involved in South Africa divestment a generation ago say that climate divestment is moving faster. An Oxford study backs that up (p. 11).

The same study acknowledges limited direct financial impacts of divestment except for coal industry, but then focuses on the stigma issue:

As with individuals, a stigma can produce negative consequences for an organisation. For example, firms heavily criticised in the media suffer from a bad image that scares away suppliers, subcontractors, potential employees, and customers. Governments and politicians prefer to engage with ‘clean’ firms to prevent adverse spill-overs that could taint their reputation or jeopardise their re-election. Shareholders can demand changes in management or the composition of the board of directors of stigmatised companies. Stigmatised firms may be barred from competing for public tenders, acquiring licences or property rights for business expansion, or be weakened in negotiations with suppliers. Negative consequences of stigma also include cancellation of multibillion-dollar contracts or mergers/ acquisitions. Stigma attached to merely one small area of a large company may threaten sales across the board.
(p. 14, citations removed)

The stigmatization from divestment will have financial consequences. These companies will have to pay more for employees and for other businesses to work with them. Companies with a toe-hold in the fossil fuel sector will find it better for them to get out.

Most important is that stigmatized industries will find it tougher to manipulate the political sector. That's one reason why they disguise their funding, but the disguise is imperfect, and the difficulty gets worse with the stigma.

Two other points. The study acknowledges political restrictions resulting from the climate divestment effort could destroy the perceived value of reserves that end up staying in the ground. When the carbon bubble pops is hard to predict, but any downward pressure increases the possibility of it happening soon.

Second, when companies divested from South Africa they weren't required to physically blow up the businesses they left behind - they sold them. The argument that it had no financial impact was around then, but we see what happened in the end.


*I think there is a business case that fossil fuel companies should 1. stop wasting money exploring for new reserves, 2. sell the reserves they're not going to be allowed to develop before the carbon bubble bursts, 3. play out the remaining and cheapest reserves and 4. either distribute the profits and wind down their companies, or invest in another business model. Not bloody likely to happen, though.

I'm ignoring the complications of when natural gas can substitute for coal. 

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Down the Drain

Eli has long been an advocate of the five fold way
  • Adaptation to deal with the damage already done
  • Amelioration, eliminating harmful effects of our actions
  • Conservation with needed and desired but not wasteful usage
  • Substitution of green systems for destructive ones
  • Mitigation reversing our thoughtless abuse
and not just for dealing with climate change.  Neat and tidy are two virtues Mom Rabett was strong on, and Ms. Rabett, well at times she is just plain cheap, Eli being thrifty.  Thus waste offends.

There has been considerable noise in the climate set about leaks from natural gas pipes and wells.  An  article in the NYTimes by David Bornstein points out that water systems are sieves. 
The Environmental Protection Agency estimates (pdf) that public water systems lose, on average, one-sixth of their water — mainly from leaks in pipes. The E.P.A. asserts that 75 percent of that water is recoverable. (In truth, the volume of leakage in the nation’s 55,000 drinking-water systems is unknown, because few conduct water audits.
with loads of consequences
It’s been widely reported that California is experiencing its worst drought in history. But take a look at the United States Drought Monitor: much of the country is abnormally dry or in drought. Internationally, the problem is even more serious. The World Bank reports that, over the next decade and a half, water availability may fall 40 percent short of global need (pdf).

Meanwhile, utilities in the developing world are hemorrhaging water. The World Bank estimates that water systems have real losses (leakages) of 8.6 trillion gallons per year, about half in developing countries (pdf, 11MB, p.6). That’s enough to serve 150 million Americans (and we use a lot of water!)
Bornstein describes how the Bahamas are dealing with the problem in collaboration with a consulting firm Miya and the obvious progress they are making

Sealing up systems can not only save money, but because water systems are often limited by water supply, it can insure delivery.  Doing so requires commitment, technology and funding, but pays multiple dividends.
One study (pdf) conducted for the California Public Utilities Commission examined audits done by 17 water utilities and found that losses were 1.6 to 6.6 times higher than optimum levels.  Assuming that 40 percent of the losses could be recovered economically, the study’s lead author, Reinhard Sturm, estimated potential savings at 113 billion gallons per year — equivalent to the annual production of six Carlsbad projects.

It’s vital to consider the impact on energy use and the environment. Water is often lost between the main pipe and the customer, which means it has already been extracted, treated and transported a very long way. That’s expensive. All that energy is lost — and more has to be used — and that, of course, increases carbon emissions. California’s water system is already the state’s largest single energy user. At the same time, desalination plants are energy intensive. Electricity accounts for roughly half the cost of their water.
Oh yeah 


Friday, July 11, 2014

Suderman meets Tojo

Japanese citizens reading their newspapers during World War II noticed that the reports of unending series of Japanese victories in the Pacific had a pattern - each time that the Japanese smashed Allied forces, it was closer to the home islands than the previous time the Allies had been smashed.

Peter Suderman's critique of Obamacare over time follows a similar eerie pattern.

After losing Saipan, Imperial Japan did start to come clean about what was happening, somewhat. We'll see when that happens with the Republican leadership.

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Eli is on vacation




Eli is on vacation, a little surfing now and again.  Back eventually, till then there is this to ponder

Statistical mathterbation has broken out everywhere, Beenstock is back, Force X is out there, and Eli was reading Andrew Gelman who posted a useful comment from George Box on models
It is widely recognized that the advancement of learning does not proceed by conjecture alone, nor by observation alone, but by an iteration involving both. Certainly, scientific investigation proceeds by such iteration. Examination of empirical data inspires a tentative explanation which, when further exposed to reality, may lead to its modification. . . .
Now, since scientific advance, to which all statisticians must accommodate, takes place by the alternation of two different kinds of reasoning, we would expect also that two different kinds of inferential process would be re- quired to put it into effect.
The first, used in estimating parameters from data conditional on the truth of some tentative model, is appropriately called Estimation. The second, used in checking whether, in the light of the data, any model of the kind proposed is plausible, has been aptly named by Cuthbert Daniel Criticism.
In the comments, Corey refers to a paper which purports to show that Kepler's model was a worse fit to the data than the Ptolemaic model, however that paper had some problems
In brief, Spanos shows that the residuals of the Keplerian model fit to Kepler’s original n = 28 data set are indistinguishable from white noise, while the residuals of the Ptolemaic model fit to a data set of one Martian year (~2 Earth years) of *daily observations from the US Navy Observatory* (n = 687) show unmistakable autocorrelation. I don’t mind telling you that my jaw literally dropped when I realized that Spanos was checking the statistical adequacy of the two models on *two different data sets*.
 This, however, to Eli was unimportant, because physics, chemistry and increasingly biology are built upon the principle of parsimony, and this is something that need be made much more explicit in teaching science at all levels.  Realizing this, the epicycles were roadkill.  Kuhn, Popper and the rest never really came to terms with the two bedrocks of science, parsimony and consistency to understand the world.

The developments of the last thirty years have provided such models for biology and climate science, but the stamp collectors have not caught up.  Cladistics is useful when simplicity is lacking.  Pattern recognition can be powerful, but it also masks understanding.  Neural nets have no sense of guilt.

Enjoy

Sunday, July 06, 2014

Two by JQ

John Quiggin has two good climate-related posts out from recent days. Tobacco International discusses the recent decision in Australia to mandate plain-packaging for cigarettes, mainly featuring pictures about the health effects of smoking. Tobacco companies fought the law tooth and nail and are now doing the same in England against a proposed law. Their apologists claim the law doesn't work. John points out it's the same people who deny climate change at work, doing the same type of data torture (in this case, seizing on a too-short trend line and drawing conclusions from it).

John also takes apart the funhouse-mirror justification for being wrong on climate change by Ross Douthat, something that was much needed. Douthat says the recession somehow changed the need to respond to environmental issues that have been festering for decades and will be with us for centuries.

John:

The best way to understand Douthat’s piece is by reverse engineering his argument as a constrained minimization problem The objective is to minimize the craziness he needs to embrace, subject to the constraint that he must end up in line with the denialist conspiracy theorists who dominate the base. The best approach is to combine the most inflated estimates of the cost of mitigation, with the rosiest projections of the implications of doing nothing.
I'd say that's pretty widespread among the inactivists who aren't fully embracing the lizard people conspiracy theory of climate fraud. The science is correct up to the point where it obviously mandates action, and then by a huge coincidence the "honest skeptic" suddenly decides the science got turned off somehow.

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Turn About

Of course, Eli is sitting on the couch, switching back and forth between the World Cup and Monckton

vs. Svalgaard at Willard Tony's place.  Eli must admit a feeling of guilt for having let the air out of the causus bellow, Jr. Rocket Scientist David Evans Theory of Nothing, but us scientist types do have responsibilities.  Still, popcorn futures are doing well.  Eli has discovered new things, for example, that Leif does not hold a high opinion of Michael Mann (it always comes back to Mike, don't it?) and that the Good Lord Monckton thinks that Mike's suit against NRO is godly and good.  WHAT!!

Well Eli was giggling through the comments and came across a letter from Monckton to the world and Leif.  The issue is that Chris has invested deeply in Evan's futures, and is watching his pounds flow out the channel, and Leif is, well, rather protective of his turf and terse, compared to the Florid Flouncer.  Leif is upset that Evans produced a downturn at the end of his TSI series by padding it in a certain way, and that the data itself is older than Eli and not the best.  Bunnies can go over there and read the details if they must.  Willard Tony censors comments not eyeballs, and so we have this from Lord Monckton

WARNING:(True, Eli has substituted Mann for Evans in this and Steyn for Svalgaard, but it does not take a good lawyer to imagine that any willingness of Mr. Steyn's lawyers to call Lord Monckton has just plunged.  Eli has perhaps enhanced this a bit)
In the Britannosphere, accusations of fraud (and adding the word “almost”, particularly given the manner in which Mr Svalgaard Steyn has interpreted what he meant by “almost”, will not help the defendant much) are taken very seriously indeed by the courts. I have now compiled a list of some of the things Mr Svalgaard  Steyn has said about Dr Evans Mann. It has taken two hours. That’s a long list.

Thanks to my former career, I have had to become something of an expert in what is and is not libel in multiple jurisdictions. Mr Svalgaard  Steyn’s remarks constitute what is known in British and Australian law as “a libel of Mr Evans Mann in his calling” – and a grave one at that. Falsely and repeatedly to accuse a fellow scientist, in the most widely-read public forum on the climate worldwide, of having used wrong data and of having fabricated data, just at the moment when Dr Evans Mann is preparing to launch the culmination of many years’ patient work, and to persist in these libels even after having been given numerous plain warnings to desist, would in my not inexpert opinion – if the case were proven – require Mr Svalgaard  Steyn to pay Dr Evans Mann not less than $100,000 in aggravated damages, particularly because Mr Svalgaard Steyn was given so many opportunities to apologize and persistently failed to take them.
a bit of interpolation here to fit the wrong case and
I do not speak for Dr Evans Mann in any way, and I have no idea of whether he will decide to sue. As a first step, he might request National Review to allow him to answer the allegations in a head posting, which would go some way towards expunging Mr Svalgaard Steyn’s nastly libel of him in his calling as a scientist.

Perhaps in the United States, as one thoughtful commenter has suggested, persistently and falsely calling someone “almost fraudulent” for allegedly “fabricating” scientific data is thought acceptable. Not in Australia. There, as in any British-law jurisdiction, such a libel is taken very seriously indeed. I had hoped I had made that plain to Mr Svalgaard Steyn, so as to give him the chance to get himself off the hook.

For my part, I am referring Mr Svalgaard Steyn’s long list of malicious comments about Dr Evans Mann (but not about me: I give as good as I get) to his university, which will know best how to handle the matter, for there is a rather delicate aspect that I am not at liberty to discuss here. The university will most certainly realize that the do-nothing option is not an option. The libel is too grave and too persistent. My lawyers are looking at it tomorrow to see whether malice is present, in which case the damages would triple, to say nothing of the costs. Their corresponding lawyers in the U.S. will be giving advice on whether Dr Evans Mann would count in U.S. law as a “public figure”, Probably not, from what I know of the “public-figure” test, in which event, in order to enforce the judgement of the Australian courts in the U.S., it would not be necessary to prove malice (for, though malice seems evident, the test in Australian law is high).

It would also be open to Dr Evans Mann simply to apply to the court for a declaration (in Scotland, declarator) that he had not fabricated anything or engaged in any of the other varieties of scientific misconduct of which Mr Svalgaard Steyn has seen fit to accuse him with such vicious and unbecoming persistence.
 and again a break during with Eli wiped the spittle off the inside of his LCD screen, concluding with
And there, I think, we had better leave it and let the appropriate authorities take over. I have only been as explicit as this because this posting will also go some little way towards expunging the libel and minimizing the damage to Dr Evans Mann’ reputation that Mr Svalgaard Steyn seems to have intended.
Eli is sure that Prof. Mann's lawyers will call Lord Monckton as a witness of law.  Ethon will provide transportation free of cost, however, Eli is also sure that Mycroft and Scrotum are arranging a long trip to the end of nowhere for Chris.