Sunday, January 28, 2018

Climate betting update: dog bites man, and I'm still winning. And isn't James Annan $10k richer?

The 2017 GISS data for global temps came in at .90 above baseline, second highest ever and only beat by 2016. As I've occasionally mentioned, David Evans and I bet each other back in 2007 over warming, and we're inching closer to deciding two of the six bets we made.

Complicated bet details here, but summary is we're comparing 5 year averages in the future to the 2005-2009 average. We're comparing 2015-2019 averages, 2020-2024 averages, and 2025-2029 averages. For each time period we had one bet set around half the warming rate that IPCC anticipated for the next few decades, and a second bet set around the low ends of what the IPCC anticipated would happen. David wins both bets if temps go up no more than .08C/decade; I win both if temps go up more than .17C. Things get complicated at temps in between those ranges. David's page on the bet is here.

The 2005-2009 average anomaly is .616C over baseline. The 2015-2017 three-year average is .916. I need the 2015-2019 to be .80C to win both bets, and .71C to avoid losing both bets.

So my lawyer math tells me that temps can drop a lot from the last three years, and I'll still win. Temps in 2018 and 2019 could average .63C, barely warmer than 10 years ago, and I'll still win. For David to win both bets, 2018-2019 would have to average about .48C or lower, much lower than when we made the bet.

So barring something really weird, I'm just coasting to a win from here. Too bad that's the case.

Speaking of coasting to a win, there's James Annan's bet for $10k that should've been resolved by now - he found some Russian cosmologist willing to bet temps would actually decline. The real question is whether James will get paid. No news that I saw on James' blog linked at the blogroll.


81 comments:

Ned said...

What other large bets are still out there?

There's your bet with David Evans, and James Annan's $10,000 bet with the Russians.

There's the Pierre Gosselin/Rob Honeycutt bet ($10,000 from Rob and his SkS followers, a bit less from Gosselin and NTZ).

Those are the ones that leap to mind. Any others?

Unknown said...

I'm puzzled by the descript of Bashkirtsev and/or Mashnich as a "cosmologist". They both appear to be solar physicists. I realize that neither specialty is completely relevant to the bet, but solar physicist seems a lot closer.

Windchasers said...

Ned, I've got a few $100 bets on surface temperatures being warmer in 5-year intervals. (2018 vs 2013, 2023 vs 2013, etc.).

Though, they're set up so that probably neither of us will win.

Layzej said...

Anyone want to bet on whether Annan is able to collect his winnings? No money sits in escrow....

EliRabett said...

Eli will take the under on the Annan bet

clusterpuck said...

This one is still open. An actual bet on climate (which is a 30-year average). https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/climate-bet-100000-risked-on-denier-challenges-so_us_5a456d46e4b0df0de8b06950

clusterpuck said...

Then there's Scott Armstrong who created what he calls "the climate bet" which neither about climate nor is it a bet. https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/podcasts/al-gore-wont-bet-on-global-warming-because-hes-wrong-guest-kesten-green

Hautbois said...

For info, I've set up a climate bets scoreboard at http://deeenngee.blogspot.co.uk/?m=1

Very much work in progress; comments welcomed.

EliRabett said...

Nick Stokes has something about the Armstrong/Green self abuse bet. It is not a complement. Eli pointed something out there too.

https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2018/02/weirdness-from-armstronggreen-and.html

Unknown said...

The expiry date is the date when the bet is closed and you settle any profits or losses. However, you can close the bet anytime before the expiry date (as long as it is within the quoted market hours for that product). You can also roll it over to the next expiry date.

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