Sunday, August 07, 2011

Eli Rabett's 75 N Challenge

Since everyone is having a sea ice challenge, Eli is going to put one up based on earlier wanderings:

Eli Rabett's 75 N Challenge.

Guess, calculate, model when (and if) this year the main ice pack will be entirely inside 75N

Rules are:
  • Based on the Daily Updated AMSR-E Sea Ice Maps from IUP Bremen sea ice concentrations.
  • If blue water separates the colored area from the piece hanging out there in the ocean, the piece is not part of the ice pack.
  • On the line is NOT inside
Advantages of the Eli Rabett Challenge Series:
  • This challenge can be repeated next year for 60 . . . ? N.
  • Gives the bunnies multiple opportunities to lose, just like real lotteries.
  • For the Eli Rabett 80, 85 and 90 N Challenges, guess the year!
  • Endless arguments about what is not on the line


Nick Barnes said...

I don't think it will happen this year, because continuous transport out of the Fram Strait will keep ice down below 75 degrees in the Greenland Sea all summer.

Alastair said...

Initially I thought the same as Nick, but during the last couple of years the ice off NE Greenland has retreated. So my estimate is two weeks today viz. 21 August.

andrewt said...

Not this year because like previous year there will be ice off Banks island.

Steve Bloom said...

Yeah, the Beaufort gyre tends to want to keep ice near Banks, although looking at recent years a retreat above 75 there doesn't seem out of the question. But if it does, a record melt would seem to be implied, in which case that tongue off Greenland should be enhanced. Very hard to have both at once, I'd say. But the tongue might well get gappy, in which case it could fit through Eli's loophole.

Anonymous said...

Little Mouse goes for 15 August. So close already.

Henk Lankamp said...

I Agree with Nick. Ice will go south in the Fram Strait below 75N.

DeWitt said...

Not going to happen this year. Too much multi-year ice in the
Beaufort Sea and near the New Siberian Islands.

Arthur said...

And don't forget the 25 sq mile Petermann Ice Island around 52 degrees north, off Newfoundland...

But maybe Eli needs to define "main ice pack" a little more clearly?

Steve Bloom said...

He did, Arthur, in rule 2. Completely separated bits don't count.

cRR Kampen said...

2011 (will Roald Amundsen fly round the latitude to check for the old cube please?).