Friday, November 25, 2011
Thursday, November 24, 2011
No Comment Needed
It get's weirder
FWIW this is an edit of the full hearing with the fireworks but the entertainment value is terrific
For the bunny's further amusement the full Young Rant
And the sum up
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EliRabett
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10:05 PM
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Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Climate related comments elsewhere
At Same Facts, James Wimberley continues to do a good job IMHO of defending the "solar on track to be cheaper than coal" idea. I wrote:
What I’d be most interested in knowing is the rate of starts for new coal power plants, especially in countries with no local coal supplies (therefore no coal lobby). A new plant takes a couple years to build and 30-50 years to pay off, so [Efficient Market Hypothesis] (if accurate) would expect to see a significant dropoff for these.
At Nature, on a post about whether mastodons got stuck in post-earthquake mud and starved over a period of months, I skepticized:
I follow climate change denialism closely, so I'm very suspicious when non-experts proclaim themselves to be personally incredulous regarding a conclusion by experts.
That said, as a non-expert, I am personally incredulous that partially submerged mammoths couldn't pull themselves out of the soil when liquefaction had ended.
Tar pits I can believe. Full submersion and immediate suffocation I can believe. But being stuck in one spot and slowly starving to death without being able to pull their legs out of the soil, is something that needs to be a little more convincing. Maybe they need to a mechanical analysis of soil strength and compare it to an elephant's strength.
Sure felt like an article I would read on April Fool's Day, but what do I know. (UPDATE: the teeming hordes of pro-stuck-mammoth factionalists attack in the comments, all two of them, and I guess they have a point.)
Finally, not a comment but a link to an interesting NY Times article on growing crops underneath trees. No mention of albedo issues from trees being darker than typical ag, though.
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Brian
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12:57 AM
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Monday, November 21, 2011
My review of George R. R. Martin's Song of Ice and Fire: epic meh
So I can't exactly pan his books seeing as I've read the entire A Song of Ice and Fire series in less than three months, but if I could go back in time I'd warn myself, don't do it. Or maybe just read the first book, which is the best, and then watch the HBO Game of Thrones show as it gradually recapitulates the books (disclaimer: haven't seen it, but it gets great reviews).
UPDATE: I half-expected to either get flamed or ignored, but apparently the rabbits agree that Martin's overrated. They provide alternatives.
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Brian
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12:02 AM
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Saturday, November 19, 2011
Peiser relies on deception
Benny Peiser, sadly, appears to be on the upswing in climate change denialism (and possibly wrong elsewhere, although I don't know the Easter Island issues well). My experience with him is that he made an incorrect factual assertion, stopped making it when caught by a knowledgeable audience, and then repeated the original assertion in front of different audiences that didn't know the truth and didn't know about his retraction. This is the person being quoted by news media today.
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Brian
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2:15 PM
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Wednesday, November 16, 2011
To fluoridate, someday, and a personal announcement
Santa Clara Valley Water District OKs adding fluoride to its drinking water
Silicon Valley's largest drinking water provider took the first steps Tuesday toward adding fluoride to the drinking water in most of Santa Clara County, including San Jose, the largest city in the nation without the cavity-battling additive.
After a lively 90-minute debate at a packed meeting, the board of the Santa Clara Valley Water District voted 7-0 to put the district on record supporting fluoridation.
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Brian
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10:46 AM
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Thursday, November 10, 2011
To fluoridate or not to fluoridate, that is the question. Next Tuesday at my Water District Board meeting
I'll reproduce below most of an old post about fluoridation. I had previously expected to see an identical situation with climate change in terms of the debate, but it's not. I think factors overall favor fluoridating, but not quite as overwhelmingly as I expected. On Tuesday, my fellow Directors and I get to figure out next steps.
Fluoridating water, or a funny thing happened on my way to backseat driving
I originally labelled this blog Backseat Driving back in 2004 because I anticipated it to be a blog where I would second-guess decisions made by politicians and other people. That worked out fine more or less until November 2010, when for some reason I was elected to the Santa Clara Valley Water District Board. Turns out that San Jose is the largest city in the US without fluoridated water supplies (in much of the city, anyway), and the seven of us directors have to decide whether we'll help or hinder the fluoridation process. So I'm pushed into the front seat for this one.We've got some legal and economic issues to handle (it's not quite as cheap as everyone says, I want to know where the money's going to come from), but the relevant issue here is science. I read the guest post at climate blogger Coby Beck's place, The Case Against Fluoride, fairly closely a while back, especially the raucous debate in the comments. As a spectator with some, limited reading of the available information, I'd say the fluoridators seemed more persuasive than skeptics, but it wasn't the absolute demolishing that I expected.The fluoride skeptics really hurt their cause when say fluoride doesn't prevent cavities - it's so obviously effective that people making this claim are damaging their own credibility. I'd consider it comparable to denying that the planet has warmed in the last 50 years.The closer issue is adverse effects, and whether a substantial number of people are very slightly harmed by fluoridation, or if a small number of people are substantially harmed. The 2006 National of Sciences report doesn't condemn fluoridation, but it doesn't absolve it, either:
Bone Fractures
....Overall, there was consensus among the committee that there is scientific evidence that under certain conditions fluoride can weaken bone and increase the risk of fractures. The majority of the committee concluded that lifetime exposure to fluoride at drinking-water concentrations of 4 mg/L or higher is likely to increase fracture rates in the population, compared with exposure to 1 mg/L, particularly in some demographic subgroups that are prone to accumulate fluoride into their bones (e.g., people with renal disease)....There were few studies to assess fracture risk in populations exposed to fluoride at 2 mg/L in drinking water. The best available study, from Finland, suggested an increased rate of hip fracture in populations exposed to fluoride at concentrations above 1.5 mg/L. However, this study alone is not sufficient to judge fracture risk for people exposed to fluoride at 2 mg/L. Thus, no conclusions could be drawn about fracture risk or safety at 2 mg/L....
(In California, 2 mg/L was the limit, and 0.7 is the new proposed goal. -Ed)
Neurotoxicity and Neurobehavioral Effects
Animal and human studies of fluoride have been published reporting adverse cognitive and behavioral effects. A few epidemiologic studies of Chinese populations have reported IQ deficits in children exposed to fluoride at 2.5 to 4 mg/L in drinking water. Although the studies lacked sufficient detail for the committee to fully assess their quality and relevance to U.S. populations, the consistency of the results appears significant enough to warrant additional research on the effects of fluoride on intelligence....
Endocrine Effects
The chief endocrine effects of fluoride exposures in experimental animals and in humans include decreased thyroid function, increased calcitonin activity, increased parathyroid hormone activity, secondary hyperparathyroidism, impaired glucose tolerance, and possible effects on timing of sexual maturity. Some of these effects are associated with fluoride intake that is achievable at fluoride concentrations in drinking water of 4 mg/L or less, especially for young children or for individuals with high water intake. Many of the effects could be considered subclinical effects, meaning that they are not adverse health effects. However, recent work on borderline hormonal imbalances and endocrine-disrupting chemicals indicated that adverse health effects, or increased risks for developing adverse effects, might be associated with seemingly mild imbalances or perturbations in hormone concentrations. Further research is needed to explore these possibilities....
(Removed discussion of bone cancer as not very troubling given its rarity. Ed.)These were the most troubling findings, mostly about what hasn't been proven, and mostly dealing with levels that are five times what's planned for drinking water. The report expressly ignored the benefits of fluoridation. It's important to balance out potential concerns over rare, severe complications related to fluoride with the certainty that rare, severe complications can result from cavities.
The bottom line as a policy maker in my little arena is that I shouldn't try and figure out the science myself, but I should try to figure out what the scientific consensus is, figure out where the consensus doesn't yet exist, and then plug that information into everything else we have to balance.
The science seems to favor fluoridation, but it's not a slam dunk. And we still have potential policy barriers, and the overall cost issues. Figuring this all out will be interesting.
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Brian
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10:45 PM
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Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Tidal wetland sediment accretion might keep up with sea level rise in one location. Maybe.
I attended our annual Santa Clara County Creeks Conference last Saturday, with an even better than usual program that included a panel on tidal wetlands restoration in South San Francisco Bay, where we're bringing back 16,000 acres of tidal wetlands from former saltponds (will post a video link when it's online).
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Brian
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2:01 AM
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Monday, November 07, 2011
Science controversies in Physics Today
In the October issue of Physics Today, Steve Sherwood discusses science controversies, past and present. He discusses heliocentrism, relativity, and greenhouses warming. Heliocentrism and relativity had supporters and opponents at the time, and of course both are taken for granted today. Sherwood, who is co-director of the Climate Change Research Centre at the Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, makes the analogy to global warming.
Naturally this will infuriate the rejectionists. The publication of the article signals that Physics Today is willing to publish soberly written articles that offend the rejectionists.
This is not the first time that Physics Today has published a timely article, to the great consternation of some physicists. Back in October 1989, during the controversy about Pons and Fleischman's purported discovery of cold fusion, Physics Today reprinted a 1953 article by Irving Langmuir and Robert Hall about "pathological science", including the purported discovery in 1903 of N-rays by the French physicist Rene-Prosper Blondlot.
In the case of cold fusion, Nobel laureate Julian Schwinger became a believer in 1989 and tried to publish articles with his theory of the alleged developments. When his manuscripts were rejected by APS journals, Schwinger resigned in protest from the American Physical Society. This ought to put in perspective the resignation (in September 2011) by Ivar Giaever, who resigned from the American Physical Society in protest of its position on global warming. Giaevar won a Nobel Prize in 1973 for tunneling in semiconductors, a field that is light-years away from climate change. Julian Schwinger was a talented mathematical physicist, but his expertise had nothing to do with Pons and Fleischman's cold fusion experiments.
The take-home lesson: some physicists don't always know as much as they think they do. And this is especially true for Nobel laureates. Nothing is more likely to encourage delusions of omniscience than receipt of a Nobel prize.
And if you think Giaever's beliefs are weird, check out the beliefs of his co-Nobel prize winner, Brian Josephson, who is an enthusiastic believer in parapsychology.
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John
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6:45 PM
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Sunday, November 06, 2011
Happy Climate Change Denial Season
From the NY Times, by Brian McFadden
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EliRabett
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8:48 PM
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Saturday, November 05, 2011
Hints from Heloise Rabett
So Eli thought everybunny knew this, but some he has recently run into didn't. If someone gives you a form to fill out and you threw the old Selectric out after forging George Bush's discharge papers, what to do? Well you could use Ink ©Steve Jobs, but you could also
a. Scan the damn thing
b. Import it into your WYSIWYG word processor (TeX being a sickness of physicists)
c. Place the image behind the text
d. Type over it
e. Print the combo out or create an Acrobat image using pdf995 or your local pdf printer faker.
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EliRabett
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9:14 PM
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Wednesday, November 02, 2011
Schnarenfreude or The Asylum is Running the Inmates
Schnarenfreude** has broken out at Watt's and the editors are on break. Popcorn please. Eli has a copy.
** if you don't know, David Schnare, the ATI lawyer suing UVa for Michael Mann's Email has been caught in several interesting nononos that are going to destroy ATI's case and David Schnare. Go read.
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EliRabett
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10:47 PM
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Ideal human population is 100 billion. Off-planet.
My off planet assumptions are for 200-300 years; that the Moon, asteroids, and free-floating colonies have been settled with lots of people; that Martian life discovery protects Mars from colonization; and that Venus hasn't yet been terraformed. And that there's no Singularity - otherwise all bets are off.* There's lots of room out there in space, and changing some of these assumptions make mine a low-end figure.
Posted by
Brian
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10:19 PM
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A little money goes a long way
Scott Mandia has set up a defense fund for climate science which, yesterday had a huge victory. After a hearing in the never ending attach on Mann, Va Judge Gaylord Finch held that
a. Mann could intervene in the suit seeking his correspondence against UVa and
b. He would reconsider his earlier decision to grant access to Michael Mann's Emails before the court decided if they should be made public.
More at Scott's site, the Guardian, and information about the suers of record, ATI
The American Tradition Institute was launched in Colorado in February 2009 as the nonprofit Western Tradition Institute, changing its name to ATI last year. WTI, in turn, was a spinoff of the Western Tradition Partnership (WTP) — a 501(c)(4) political advocacy group backed by energy interests.
“They are offshoots from the same poisoned roots,” said Peter Fontaine, the attorney representing Michael Mann in the ATI lawsuit.
WTP, which has since changed its name to American Tradition Partnership (logo above), describes itself as a “no-compromise grassroots organization dedicated to fighting the radical environmentalist agenda.” It was first registered as a Colorado nonprofit in 2008 by Scott Shires, a Republican operative with a checkered past: He was fined over $7,000 for campaign finance violations in Colorado, pleaded guilty in a scheme to fraudulently obtain federal grants for developing alternative fuels, and was tied to an illegal gambling ring. WTP was active on behalf of oil and gas industry interests in the 2008 commissioners race in Garfield County, a center of Colorado’s energy industry
Perhaps the churnalist of record and the not quite statistician should do their jobs rather than tut tutting about how people who recognize climate change when they see it should stop drinking soda and releasing CO2?
Posted by
EliRabett
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7:52 AM
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A scientist is a feather, a lawyer is a sail
Some time ago I guest-lectured to some undergrads in a science curriculum track about environmental advocacy. I said I had read somewhere that a scientist is a feather and the evidence is the wind - the scientist makes no effort to control the evidence but just floats wherever it takes her. Obviously this is an incomplete construct that ignores hypothesis formation etc., but is supposed to represent the ideal of how a scientist reacts to evidence.
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Brian
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1:17 AM
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Monday, October 31, 2011
Trick or Treat
Ms. Rabett says always use protection. The bunnies are. . .FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 31, 2011
Contact: PPFA Media Office, 212-261-xxxx
Thinking About Having Sex with a Vampire This Halloween?
Planned Parenthood Is Here to Help
Let’s face it: vampires can rack up a lot of sexual partners over the years. Your vampire might be the same age as you, or she or he might be thousands of years old. But no matter how old you are, if you’re going to jump into bed with a vampire, you’re going to need more than a clove of garlic to protect your health.
Here are some things to think about before you enter into a sexual relationship with a vampire:
Vampires might be immortal, but you’re not. It’s important for both vampires and humans to get tested for STDs. Use this tool to find out if you should get tested for STDs.
Ladies, just because a vampire says he can’t get you pregnant*, it doesn’t mean he can’t give you an STD. And guys, just because a vampire says she’s on the pill, it doesn’t mean that you can’t get an STD. Use a condom correctly every time.
Don’t wait until you’re in the heat of the moment to bring up safer sex. Vampires have been known to “glamour” people to get their way, so play it safe and make it clear that you won’t have sex without protection right from the start.
Remember, a vampire who doesn’t care about protecting your health is not the kind of vampire that you want to get involved with. Not sure if you’re dating the right vampire? We can help you figure it out.
* Let’s not forget, Edward got Bella pregnant in the Twilight series, going against hundreds of years of vampire lore. So even if your vampire tells you he can’t get you pregnant, why risk it? Condoms are not only a great way to prevent STDs, they’re effective at preventing pregnancy. Even better, use a condom along with another birth control method.
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EliRabett
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1:49 PM
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Sunday, October 30, 2011
What's Going On Here?
Now Eli, to be sure, really doesn't know what is going on between Richard Muller and Judy Curry, but this he does know, Judy is listed as an author on all of the five Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature papers, and the papers have been submitted for review (given some of the comments at places like Tamino and Real Climate, they are going to be improved before published). La Curry is not exactly casting aspersions on the papers, but in Pielkespeak she is not not casting aspersions. Clearly she disagrees with some of El Muller's conclusions. Big showdown in Santa Fe this week.
But the Rabett has a question. Journals (Nature for example) have a policy about authors disagreeing
The Nature journals do not require all authors of a research paper to sign the letter of submission, nor do they impose an order on the list of authors. Submission to a Nature journal is taken by the journal to mean that all the listed authors have agreed all of the contents. The corresponding (submitting) author is responsible for having ensured that this agreement has been reached, and for managing all communication between the journal and all co-authors, before and after publication. Any changes to the author list after submission, such as a change in the order of the authors, or the deletion or addition of authors, needs to be approved by a letter signed by every author. (The letter should be scanned and uploaded to the journal's online tracking system by the corresponding author, or sent in one combined email.)So does she agree to all of the contents of all of the papers? The nice part of this is lots of someones are going to go cliff jumping no matter what. Judy has a choice of whether to do a Little Nell, and throw herself off the cliff, or invite Richard to go jump. Let's see if the bunnies can raise some M&Ms over at the Curry Shack. Rev up the indignation.
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EliRabett
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9:38 PM
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Saturday, October 29, 2011
Denial in Depth
Paul Krugman nails it in discussing US Republican tactics
Think about climate change. You have various right-wingers simultaneously (a) denying that global warming is happening (b) denying that anyone denies that global warming is happening, but denying that humans are responsible (c) denying that anyone denies that humans are causing global warming, insisting that the real argument is about the appropriate response.Remind the bunnies of anyone??I’m not sure there are three levels (yet) on inequality, but we definitely have (a) right-wingers denying that inequality is rising and (b) denying that anyone is denying the rise in inequality, but attacking any proposal to limit that rise.
You might ask, how is it possible to take such mutually contradictory positions? And the answer is, it’s very easy if confusing the debate is your job.
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EliRabett
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10:00 PM
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Friday, October 28, 2011
The Law of Climate Change Denial
Ethon has noticed some interesting stuff going on in Boulder, a formerly anonymous blogger, who turns out to be a University of Colorado law professor has outed the law school scam.
Law school is, in terms of educational credentials, the last stop for many people in a social game that they have been brought up to play ever since, 20 years ago, their yuppie overachiever parents agonized over how to get them into the "right" preschool. That game is very expensive, in terms of what it requires in both economic and cultural capital. . .
This blog has focused for the most part on what law schools do badly. This post has been about what they do supremely well, which is to replicate and reinforce class privilege, under the rubric of rewarding native intellectual ability and the capacity for hard work. And of course the skyrocketing cost of legal education has played a crucial role in intensifying these effects. When I started teaching at a good state law school in the early 1990s, tuition was $5000 per year in 2011 dollars. Now it's more than $30,000. Many of my best students from my early years of teaching -- people from relatively modest social backgrounds -- would never have gone to law school if it had cost what it costs now. What law school costs now ensures that a much higher percentage of students than ever before will either be children of the affluent, or people who have neither the necessary economic nor cultural capital available to them to figure out that borrowing $200,000 in non-dischargeable loans to go to law school is almost always a terrible idea. That too is a form of social sorting -- and we are beginning to see the consequences of it on a grand scale.On his group blog yesterday Paul Campos investigated the ubiquity of denial, analogizing climate change denial to denial that law schools are pricing themselves out of existence.
First, you have your flat-out Deniers. These are people who simply deny there’s any crisis. . . . .The law school analogy is the professor (there is, I am reliably informed by one of his colleagues, at least one such law professor, who interestingly is middle-aged and doesn’t seem to be suffering from senile dementia) who denies that the cost of law school has risen relative to inflation.The warmers are deniers of the second order
they’ll acknowledge the earth is warming, but they’ll claim this is a natural cyclical process, rather than a product of human activity. The law school analogy are faculty and administrators who acknowledge costs have gone up and the employment situation is bad at the moment, but who treat all this as a natural, cyclical, and most of all temporary situation,The second category are
your Fatalists. The Fatalists acknowledge there’s a crisis, admit it’s to a significant extent human-caused and likely to get a lot worse, but argue that at this point there’s little or nothing we can do about it. . . . . .The third are the
The law school analogy are people who admit the employment situation is terrible, that it’s going to get worse, and that it’s been made worse by the collective behavior of law schools, but who argue that there’s not that much law schools can do to improve it
Inconvenient Truthers. The ITs take the same basic view as the Fatalists, with the crucial difference that they believe that, with a combination of enough consciousness-raising and concerted political action, the collective action problems can be overcome, and many of the worst effects of human-caused climate change can be headed off, or at least ameliorated at an acceptable cost. The law school analogy consists of the people inside the system who believe that radical reform is both necessary and possible.And
The fourth group consists of the Sleepers — the people who just aren’t paying much attention to this issue one way or another.Occupy Wall Street. Wait, they have.
Posted by
EliRabett
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8:58 PM
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China follows up India in committing to being better than US on per-capita emissions
As has been covered in a few places, China has committed not to "follow the path of the US" with its current level of per capita emissions. (I agree with Joe Romm, btw, that they're not otherwise likely to hit the US level by 2017. They were at one-third the US level three years ago, and it can't go up that fast.)
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Brian
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12:53 AM
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