Hi Climate Auditors

Since you appear to be coming in here, Eli and the anonymice would be happy to exchange comments with you. We appear to have intermittent and strange problems posting over there and frankly life is too short, and the weather too fine to try and fix the broken Audit filter. And so to bed.

UPDATE: TAC asks me to post some comments here on what Steve posted. Since it is late, Eli will simply point to the de Bilt site which discusses the adjustments and has links to papers that discuss the adjustments. I am sure Steve will now read them. This particular page was not linked by Steve nor Hans Erren directly.

Technical description

Corrections have been made for:

• relocation combined with a transition of large open hut to a wooden Stevenson screen (September 1950).
• relocation of the Stevenson screen (August 1951).
• lowering of Stevenson screen from 2.2 m to 1.5 m (June 1961).
• transition of artificial ventilated Stevenson screen to the current KNMI round-plated screen (June 1993).
• warming trend of 0.11°C per century caused by urban warming.

Please note the following:

• the transition of the wooden Stevenson to a PVC Stevenson screen (August 1980) did not have a noticeable effect on the daily mean temperatures; consequently no corrections had to be applied.
• from 1951 onwards, KNMI shifted from so-called climatological temperature measurements to synoptical measurements. However, the climatological measurements continued to 1970. For the 1951-1970 period these measurements may be considered as more reliable than the synoptical measurements. Therefore, in the homogenized series the climatological measurements extend to 1970.
• the present version of the series may change as soon as new results come available from the efforts of KNMI to homogenize the temperature series of De Bilt on a daily base, taking into account weather-dependent corrections.

• 
  

Links to papers can be found on the KNMI web page.

Ethon takes up the Climate Science challenge

The bunnies gave Ethon a brand new camera for Christmas. We now have endless postcards that have been uploaded to the world's most boring website. This week tho, the big bird on his search for new Rogers came across the weather station picture contest. Given his close relationship with the family Pielke and the starring role that Roger Sr. is playing in this farce, Eth decided to head out to Ft. Collins and visit the old guy's stomping grounds. As you may know, Roger Sr. is flacking for Anthony Watts surface station picture gallery. which is closely coupled to the same sort of jumping up and down seen at Climate Audit (thanks for the links guys, but it would be nice if you let Eli's comment through, especially as your reader keep asking him questions). We have heard about how at some of those awful weather stations there are hibachis next to the fence surrounding the site.

The picture at the top is from Roger's own weather station, when he was Colorado State Climatologist. The text describes the site

The Fort Collins Weather Station is located on the campus of Colorado State University just northwest of the Lory Student Center.

Weather observations consist of automated measurements of temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, pressure, solar radiation and soil temperatures updated every 10 minutes. There are also manual measurements taken every 12 hours of precipitation, snowfall, cloud and sky conditions, visibility, evaporation, winds, temperature, humidity, and other standard weather variables.

The Fort Collins Weather Station is an historical part of the university. Data collection began near the site of the former "Old Main" in the 1870s. Daily climate records are complete and available in a variety of digital and hardcopy forms since January 1, 1889 making this one of Colorado oldest weather stations and an incredible scientific resource.

Curiously, when Eli checked, the Ft. Collins station was not pictured in the Anthony Watts archive. Obviously an oversight due to the press of work in this very important project

Hide the bunnies.

Via Michael Tobis and Climate Progress, an astoundingly outspoken reply by Jim Hansen to Michael Griffin and others who quote a Motl

1) Our junior high school English teacher admonished us that ‘ignorant’ was not a derisive word, it means ‘uninformed’, not ’stupid’. Given that 15 years ago, under George Bush the elder, the United States (and practically all other countries in the world) signed and ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change, which calls for stabilizing climate, it seems that ‘ignorant’ or ‘uninformed’ is an appropriate adjective for describing his remarks. Not to mention all the research results of NASA, other agencies, the IPCC, etc

After a few other considered remarks, Hansen points out that

The significance of the Administrator’s remarks is the insight it provides into the February 2006 massacre of the Earth Science Research and Analysis budget (which funds NASA support of Earth Science research at universities as well as NASA Centers, primarily Goddard Space Flight Center), as discussed here

Something that Eli mentioned a few months ago in his seminal post, Those who governments would destroy they first defund. The Bunny knows all.

See no climate change

Via the AP

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is drastically scaling back efforts to measure global warming from space, just as the president tries to convince the world the U.S. is ready to take the lead in reducing greenhouse gases.

Mighty mouse will save the day

The reduced system of four satellites will now focus on weather forecasting. Most of the climate instruments needed to collect more precise data over long periods are being eliminated.

Instead, the Pentagon and two partners — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA will rely on European satellites for most of the climate data.

"Unfortunately, the recent loss of climate sensors ... places the overall climate program in serious jeopardy," NOAA and NASA scientists told the White House in the Dec. 11 report obtained by the AP.

They said they will face major gaps in data that can be collected only from satellites about ice caps and sheets, surface levels of seas and lakes, sizes of glaciers, surface radiation, water vapor, snow cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

However we can't blame it all on George Bush

Jerry Mahlman, a former scientist at NOAA who is now at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said he and other colleagues warned of problems as far back as 1995.

He compared the preparations for the satellites to a "planned train wreck."

Rick Piltz has more

Assault on Mr. Hansen

UPDATE: Steve McIntyre has some strange complaint about Eli cherry picking pictures to hang on his blog. Rabetts pick carrots Steve-O. In any case here is a picture of the climate observatory at de Bilt, part of a set from KNMI (Thanks to Henk L. in the comments)

Sadly the sense filter over at Climate Audit appears working again and excluding some of the bunny's words of wisdom, so although a bit out of place here is what got filtered for those coming over from Climate Audit (welcome):

In your anger, you have missed the entire point about the picture and US Climate Reference Network, which was posted

The stations are designed to be optimal, with respect to location, instrumentation and operation. More information can be found at the web site. While the USCRN is just being set up it can be used to quantitatively check measurements made in the past at other stations

In order to assess the performance of the network in addressing this goal a performance measure (PM) was developed. This PM is an assessment of how closely the current and past configuration of the network captures the "true" national temperature and precipitation signal as defined by an area-averaged time series of annual temperature and precipitation derived from 4000 U.S. Cooperative (CO-OP) Network stations scattered across the continental U.S. The configuration of the CRN for a given point in time is used to select stations from the 4000 CO-OP station network, one station for each operating CRN site (the one physically closest in location), and the time series derived from these stations is compared, statistically, to the time series derived from all 4000 stations. The result is a "variance explained" that measures how closely the "CRN" time series follows the "true" time series

In other words, here is a sensible way of checking the accuracy of older climate networks in the past and calibrating them in the future. Tamino had an interesting post on station adjustment using Switzerland as an example with much detail filtering into the comments. There is a complete (although in German) description of the station history and adjustments available.

Assault on Mt. Hansen

Steve McIntyre fired the first gun in the assault on the GISS global temperature record, when, he rather amateurishly tried to down load the station data records in a way which looked like a denial of service attack to the webmaster. The back and forth over whether this was a DOS attack, or the GISS servers sucked was hilarious. Good summaries can be found at Deltoid and Climate Audit, much epistimology about the meaning of the word robot. The upshot was that Jim Hansen said welcome to it.

After a short meeting with Dr. Hansen, we were advised to let you download whatever you want as long as generally accepted protocols are observed. Please try to do so at a time that does not impact other users, i.e. late nights, weekends.

Now Ho Chi Pielke Sr. is providing reinforcements by getting his irregulars to go out there and take pictures of stations in the Global Historic Climate Network (GHCN). Anthony Watts is setting up a web site for such pictures. The goal, of course is to falsify GISSTEMP

UPDATE: Following the crumbs left by the mice (Dano and Chuck) in the comments below, Eli observes that this is exactly what Roger's survey is designed to do with its bias, nay more than bias, prejudice for photographing sites close to people, e.g. in developed areas. Folk are going to take pictures of sites near them, so they are going to get a sample heavily tilted towards sites near them. It will be fun to correlate the locations of sites photographed with voting patterns. Of course we have the American speaking bias on top of that.

UPDATE: Eli would strongly encourage folks from Climate Audit and Climate Science who are visiting to make a side trip to the US Climate Reference Network site to see the care and thought that has to go into any serious test of the existing climate data system.

Thomas Karl has a better idea. He has taken the lead is setting up the US Climate Reference Network,

Its primary goal is to provide future long-term homogeneous observations of temperature and precipitation that can be coupled to long-term historical observations for the detection and attribution of present and future climate change. Data from the USCRN will be used in operational climate monitoring activities and for placing current climate anomalies into an historical perspective. The USCRN will also provide the United States with a reference network that meets the requirements of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). If fully implemented, the network will consist of about 110 stations nationwide. Implementation of the USCRN is contingent on the availability of funding.

Pictures of stations in the network can be found on the web site. Roger can hike up to the Boulder station. The stations are designed to be optimal, with respect to location, instrumentation and operation. More information can be found at the web site. While the USCRN is just being set up it can be used to quantitatively check measurements made in the past at other stations

In order to assess the performance of the network in addressing this goal a performance measure (PM) was developed. This PM is an assessment of how closely the current and past configuration of the network captures the "true" national temperature and precipitation signal as defined by an area-averaged time series of annual temperature and precipitation derived from 4000 U.S. Cooperative (CO-OP) Network stations scattered across the continental U.S. The configuration of the CRN for a given point in time is used to select stations from the 4000 CO-OP station network, one station for each operating CRN site (the one physically closest in location), and the time series derived from these stations is compared, statistically, to the time series derived from all 4000 stations. The result is a "variance explained" that measures how closely the "CRN" time series follows the "true" time series.

1221 of the best CO-OP stations with long records form the US Historical Climatology Network. USCRN is a part of GCOS whose stations can be found here.

G-8 heats up

There have been massive riots in Rostok ahead of the G-8 summit to be held in nearby Heiligendamm. Almost none of this has made its way into the US press and not so much in the English papers, although the BBC has a feature. Over 16,000 police are in Rostok and maybe five times as many protesters, the vast majority of whom are peaceful. However, there were at least 2000 violent anarchists in the crowd. The effect that this will have on the summit is to be seen. To the extent that this weakens Chancellor Merkel's position and diffuses reporting on the summit itself, the consequences could be grave

Lost in Space

Nasawatch has the latest in Mike Griffin's war with Earth Science. He got asked how NASA planned to respond to the NRC's report on Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond". The gist of his reply was

The NRC advice is not really intended for NASA; they are fully aware that the choices are not mine to make. The real target for their advice is the Congress, which in the end has the final power to adjust the amount of money being spent by the nation on Earth Science.Thus, our response to the recent Earth Sciences decadal will be to respect, insofar as possible, their assessment of scientific priorities, while continuing to take direction on budgetary matters from the White House and Congress.

As Eli speculated back in November

Before the US election the dour bunny was of the opinion that at a minimum Columbia University was about to receive a gift of GISS. Whether it would be silly enough to accept the donation was another story. Goddard, Langley, JPL, Ames and Glenn were in deep trouble too, as was the entire agency. In one scenario aeronautics would go to the FAA leaving a rump Confederate Space Exploration Agency centered around Johnson, Kennedy, Marshall and Stennis. Kennedy would be renamed Strom Thurmond Space Center.

Nuclear December or an Unwarranted Lassitude

Nuclear weapons have a potential for damage and destruction beyond imagining. Concern arose in the 1980s that besides immediate deaths, nuclear exchanges could change the planets albedo resulting in a nuclear winter, a climate that would not support agriculture. In 1990 a study was published, called TTAPS after the authors, Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagan, that used climate models to predict multiyear nuclear winters caused by the smoke emitted from burning cities. TTAPS assumed that half of the US/USSR nuclear arsenals would be used. Later, more sophisticated studies implied a nuclear winter autumn. The Wikipedia article is a useful summary of the TTAPS conclusions which were later thought to be overblown.

First 1 to 3 months: 10 to 25 % of soot injected is immediately removed by precipitation, while the rest is transported over the globe in 1 to 2 weeks. SCOPE figures for July smoke injection: 22° C drop in mid-latitudes. 10° C drop in humid climates. 75 % decrease in rainfall in mid-latitudes. Light level reduction of 0 % in low latitudes to 90 % in high smoke injection areas. SCOPE figures for winter smoke injection: Temperature drops of 3° to 4° C. Following 1 to 3 years: 25 to 40 % of injected smoke is stabilised in atmosphere (NCAR). Smoke stabilised for approximately 1 year. Land temperatures of several degrees below normal. Ocean surface temperature drops of 2° to 6° C. Ozone depletion of 50% leading to 200% increase in UV radiation incident on surface.

Toon and Turco have found new collaborators, Robock, Bardeen, Oman, and Stenchikov, and access to better climate models. In addition to the direct effects of a small nuclear exchange

We analyze the likely outcome of a regional nuclear exchange involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal). We find that such an exchange could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II, or to those once estimated for a "counterforce'' nuclear war between the superpowers. Megacities exposed to atmospheric fallout of long-lived radionuclides would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe national and international implications

They find that

We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and long-lasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter'' simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes are more long-lasting because the older models did not adequately represent the stratospheric plume rise.

That last sentence is rather misleading. These issues have been dealt with in more detail recently in an article appearing in EOS (pay the damn $20 AGU membership fee already and get access)

Toon et al. [2007b] recently found that a regional war between the smallest current nuclear states involving 100 fifteen-kiloton explosions (the number of weapons likely to exist in the arsenals of new nuclear states; India and Pakistan are estimated to have 110–180 weapons between them) could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II. Robock et al. [2007a] showed that smoke from urban firestorms in such a conflict would produce significant global temperature and precipitation changes, lasting a decade or more, shortening the growing season in the midlatitudes by a month in major agricultural areas, and thus affecting world food supplies. In addition, Robock et al. [2007b] found that although the Cold War and its associated nuclear arms race are over, the remaining American and Russian nuclear arsenals could still produce nuclear winter, threatening the lives of billions of people.

Simulations for this new work were carried out using the latest NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model, ModelE [Schmidt et al., 2006], the result of decades of NASA investment, and the hard work and dedication of a large number of scientists supported by NASA. Because ModelE is able to simulate the entire troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere, from the Earth’s surface up to 80 kilometers, and interactively transports black carbon aerosols in response to solar heating and changing wind circulation, we were able to produce fundamentally new results, showing that the smoke would persist in the atmosphere for more than 10 years, an order of magnitude longer than previously assumed. Robock et al. [2007b] also show that early results suggesting that nuclear autumn instead of nuclear winter would follow a fullscale war [Thompson and Schneider, 1986] were based upon climate models that were not adequate to fully address the problem because they did not have deep enough atmospheres, and could not be run long enough.

If you have the nerve to read the full article, "Nuclear Winter Revisited with a Modern Climate Model and Current Nuclear Arsenals: Still Catastrophic Consequences", it can be found on line and soon to appear in J. Geophys. Res.

UPDATE: Roger Pielke Sr. had a post about this back in December. There is also a powerpoint presentation

It's still spinich

Drumbeats in the burrow bring new updates on boreholes to Stoat. Looks like Henry has been dealing seconds, or the average of the average is not the average (well if the average is the simple arithmetic average it is, but otherwise not). In retrospect it was obvious.

To go where no man has gone before

John Quiggin, picking up on several of our posts about Roger Bate and Africa Fighting Malaria, comes to the conclusion that our beyond right wing friends occupy a parallel universe. However, in the comments at Real Climate, Ray Ladbury says it is not so bad. He points to Tom Bodett who sagely observes that

Earlier this year the words To understand and protect our home planet were quietly omitted from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration mission statement. In their place is some vague mandate to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery and aeronautics research.

If one considers the many tons of hardware NASA has hoisted into orbit bristling with cameras, spectral analyzers, infra-red scanners, laser locaters and snappy little blue emblems; and one considers the invaluable information provided by all this stuff about Earth’s ocean currents, wind patterns, water reservoirs, melting ice caps, carbon dioxide densities, and ozone holes; and one also considers how utterly absurd it would be to drop understanding and protecting our home planet from the job description of the people best suited to the task, then one comes to a single conclusion: This is not our home planet

This must be true, after all

Mars is a good place to practice for the trip back to the true mother planet wherever she is. If anybody is in a position to find it, it’s NASA. So point all those cameras and scanners out to the stars and keep your eyes peeled for a familiar blue ball. Forget about all those atmospheric studies. Go to work on some warp drives and we’ll soon be blasting off right through that hole in the ozone, and into the arms of our long lost cousins. That is, if they’ll have us back once they see what we’ve done to the rental.

Michael Griffin, the NASA Administrator was just helping us on our way.

We have a problem Mission Control

Tip of the ear to K. Vranes

NASA ADMINISTRATOR MICHAEL GRIFFIN NOT SURE THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS A PROBLEM

UPDATE: Eli is a tired old Rabett who intends to go plant some carrots and lettuce in his garden tonight, so he is more than happy to let Rick Piltz carry some of this load (besides, this crap does not go well with a white fur coat). According to Rick, Jim Hansen had some calming thoughts

“It’s an incredibly arrogant and ignorant statement,” Hansen told ABC News. “It indicates a complete ignorance of understanding the implications of climate change.”

Jim, evidently is in a serious FU mood.

NASA Watch has more on this, but it is by far not the most amusing thing over there, for example,

"NASA SPACE FLIGHT MEDAL ... Lisa M. Nowak [NASA Space Flight Medal (flight crew members) An award given for significant achievement or service during individual participation as a civilian or military astronaut, pilot, mission specialist, payload specialist, or other space flight participant in a space flight mission.]"

She really went off the deep end. On the other hand Lisa is a much nicer character than the the astronette from hell

Finally, indeed! Marsha isn't the only one who displays this behavior, but she is the current poster child, since Jay Greene (her mentor) has retired. Want to know what I did when I learned that Marsha was to be (Constellation Program Office Manager) Jeff Hanley's special assistant? I quit. Turned in my resignation and walked away from NASA and JSC. If Hanley and Griffin have the monumental bad judgement to put Marsha in a place with that kind of power and lack of accountability, the Constellation Program is doomed.

Her reputation Go(e)th before her like a shield.
Houston we have several problems. . .

The Rachel Carson Death Toll:

Marion Delgado has some important updates on the Rachel Carson Death Toll, originally placed as a comment in Eli's memorium, the Bunnies in the Snark Room have moved it to this more appropriate place:

The Rachel Carson Death Toll

1913: 6 year old rachel carson wins an essay contest "why little disease bugs have mommies and need a break! Let's not be mean" The essay is reprinted nationwide and president Wilson decides not to fight or quarantine the Spanish influenza:

RESULT: Tens of millions of deaths. Rachel gets a new bicycle.

1917 - 10 year old Rachel Carson sends a letter to the Finnish King suggesting he allow a sealed railroad car bearing Vladimir Ilich Lenin, Communist Butcher, to travel through the nation because "scientists like me know sharing is nice." The Finns mistakenly listen.

RESULT: 100 million deaths in Russia, 200 million in china, another 100 million in vietnam, cambodia, and cuba. Rachel Carson becomes the first American to win a Red Star Bolshevik Anti-American Jesus-Killing Order of Merit First Class. She and her family move to a dacha on the Black Sea.

1935 animal behaviorathiest Rachel Carson sends fan mail to Neville Chamberlin "Dear Mr. Prime Minister: I think appeasement is sexy, and its the way to peace. Keep up the good work!"

RESULT: The ensuing war against the wrong enemy kills many. Also, domestic Nazi policy is believed by some experts to have claimed hundreds or even thousands of victims.* Still, war is hell, and we have to up Rachel's toll to 600 million. Margaret Sanger awards Carson the Paul Ehrlich Euthanasia and Eugenics Zealot Medallion.

1950s: Behavioratheist sea psychologist Rachel Carson declaims that Asians are superior and should not be resisted. Harry Truman's Communist Cabinet agrees.

RESULT: Millions of Deaths. Rosenbergs give Rachel a signed printed first edition of Das Kapital.

1960s: Rachel Carson lights her cigarette with a naive fan's draft card. Ecoterrorists led by Carson firebomb every DDT plant on earth. Mosquitoes and dragonflies reinherit the uninhabited Earth. Billions die.

RESULT: millions of deaths among americans and laotians. Rachel Carson is named Time's Woman of the Year.

1970s: it is finally determined by the Rachel Carsonology cult that her ashes won't unacceptably pollute the ocean.

RESULT: Shuttle Challenger takes in her ashes and explodes on takeoff. Rachel Carson immortalized on Mt. Rushmore in a stealth ecovandalism raid.

Final death toll: 10 billion and 7 people.

Argue all you like but these are the facts

*David Irving, op. cit.

Ethon gets a new Roger

Ethon was chewing over his livertarian flavored Roger, Bate, happy that he had a new chew toy which did not require a long commute, when, to his great surprise, who should show up but Martin Durkin, director of the Great Global Warming Swindle and several other confidence tricks, a real live Living Marxist. Ethon spit up. While livertarians have a somewhat plastic taste, it is hard to keep a Living Marxist down, better to microwave them, but oh my it is a rich stew, with Lydon Larouche, Roger Bate and Co. cooperating with the Revolting Communist Party types such as Martin Durkin, the Revolting Communist Party being a livertarian front group. Andy Rowell, a journalist found this out

Firstly that the Institute of Ideas (IOI) and Spiked collaborate with known climate sceptics such as Roger Bate and Julian Morris of the IPN. Their collaboration began in the late nineties when two key Living Marxism activists, Frank Furedi and Bill Durodie, started writing for the European Science and Environment Forum and Roger Bate, ESEF's founder, began writing for Living Marxism (the forerunner of Spiked and IOI).

Bate has also contributed to Spiked-Online, writing on issues such as DDT, GM[1] and depleted Uranium. The latter article by Bate is co-written with Professor Zbigniew Jaworowski,[2] who writes for 21st Century Science and Technology - the magazine of anti-Semitic conspiracy theorist Lyndon LaRouche, a scientist who believes that 'The Ice Age is Coming.'[3]

and an interview with George Monbiot

There are two reasons why I find it worrying. The first is that the agenda they pursue appears not to be pursued overtly. For example, when they ran the magazine Living Marxism it was very far from a Marxism journal - it was just about as far from a Marxist journal as you could possibly get. And it seemed to me that the title was a direct and deliberate attempt to distract attention from the fact that this was a far right wing libertarian publication which was using the terms of the left to make it look as if the positions it was taking were new and unusual ones. Whereas in actual fact they were very well trodden ones, but well trodden by people like the Libertarian Alliance who in theory were at the other end of the political spectrum.

*I have never heard of the Libertarian Alliance before.

George: Mad as a pile of buckets. But what Living Marxism did, I felt, was to give the impression that it was saying something new because it was dealing with the issues from a left perspective whereas it was very plainly dealing with them from a right perspective. And it was taking a line almost identical to that taken by right wing organizations - particularly some of the business come lobbyist organisations in the US, such as the Heritage Foundation, the CATO Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute - and so they were able to play very effectively on this semblance of left parties. People find it is very hard to believe that a magazine called Living Marxism would be a right wing magazine. And so they said ‘oh look - the left has come up with something new - really I think that maybe we should be following this line ourselves’. It led to a great deal of confusion really, including among some people I know.

A rich stew but hard to swallow.

In memoriam, Rachel Carson

Born: May 27, 1907
in Springdale, Pennsylvania

Died: April 14, 1964
in Silver Spring, Maryland

Ignoring time and a few kilometers of space, Rachel Carson was a neighbor. She wrote with passion, she wrote with care and caring. She was a naturalist who shared her love with us. As a young boy, Eli absorbed some of her spirit. Although now mostly (and sadly) forgotten, her The Sea Around Us, and The Edge of the Sea capture beauty and introduce science, bringing both to us, or perhaps better said bringing us to both. Read the first paragraph of the Edge of the Sea

The edge of the sea is a strange and beautiful place. All through the long history of Earth it has been an area of unrest where waves have broken heavily against the land, where the tides have pressed forward over the continents, receded, and then returned. For no two successive days is the shore line precisely the same. Not only do the tides advance and retreat in their eternal rhythms, but the level of the sea itself is never at rest. It rises or falls as the glaciers melt or grow, as the floor of the deep ocean basins shifts under its increasing load of sediments, or as the earth's crust along the continental margins warps up or down in adjustment to strain and tension. Today a little more land may belong to the sea, tomorrow a little less. Always the edge of the sea remains an elusive and indefinable boundary.

The last things she wrote was Helping Your Child to Wonder, on one level a description of introducing "Oceanus" to her nephew Roger, first as an infant and then as a young child, but on a deeper one it explains why and how we grow to the study of nature. From a review at Amazon

By dragonfly333
This book was recommended to me by a friend some years ago. She told me that she had read this book in her youth and it had changed her life. At the time, the book was still out of print, but I managed to find a well-read copy through inter-library loan. After reading it, I can well understand how this little book can transform a person's way of thinking. In a very personal and lyrical remembrance, Rachel Carson shares her vision of the natural world and the wonder it inspires. "A child's world is fresh and new and beautiful, full of wonder and excitement. It is our misfortune that for most of us that clear-eyed vision, that true instinct for what is beautiful and awe-inspiring, is dimmed and even lost before we reach adulthood,"

When curiosity and awe are joined to an inquiring mind, some cleverness and not a little bit of hard, frustrating but ultimately elating labor, science and understanding result. Rachel Carson provided many from my generation the path

(Linda Lear writes a Rachel Carson web site. Besides providing the picture of Rachel Carson Eli has learned and remembered much else from it).

The price of defaming Rachel Carson

About £10K per month (About U$18K then) to Roger Bate, who fronted Africa Fighting Malaria for the tobacco industry. In October of 1998 when negotiations were getting started to establish AFM, John Roberts, in Philip Morris' UK office sent a memo to Matt Winokur, PM's Directory of Regulatory Affairs,

Winokur, Matt
From: Roberts, John
Sent: Wednesday, October 21, 199810:55 AM
To: Bushong, David; Winokur, Matt
Subject RE: Bate
I think Bate is a very valuable resource and have strongly recommended that he play some role at UN level . I recall that we paid him up to GBP 10,0000 per month. There is one additional person I would recommend as deserving of consideration too and that is John Bowis . Where Bate's principal interest Is Malaria, Bowls's is mental health, t believe them to be complementary resources . Best wishes,

John

Original Sin

Tobacco denialism is the original sin. The tobacco companies fought a fifty year battle to deny the harm that they have done and are doing, the myriad deaths caused by the evil weed. Some time ago, Eli dug out information showing that tobacco is responsible for over 20 % of male and 8 % of female deaths in developed countries.

To maintain their profits the tobacco companies created a sophisticated public relations effort supported by a small but virulent group of professionals including scientists, economists and policy sluts. Among these were our old friends the Freds, Seitz and Singer who have gone on to further dishonor and but, alas, good fortune.

The centenary of Rachel Carson's birth has brought one of these, a Roger Bate to the forefront. Bate, an economist, currently dishonouring the American Enterprise Institute has set up a front organization, Africa Fighting Malaria, but to what purpose the innocent bunnies ask.

Not to fight malaria, but to fight the World Health Organization while it attempts to battle the twin curses of malaria and tobacco. Yesterday, Eli pointed to Roger Bate's solicitation letter to Philip Morris, today Rabett Institute will briefly consider the funding proposal SENT TO THE TOBACCO COMPANIES in which the clear purpose of Africa Fighting Malaria is layed out

(UPDATE: Somehow Eli originally omitted the URL. Thanks to the anonymouse who pointed out the omission)

We have had significant media attention to our ideas and have supporters within political circles. The idea of sound science, thresholds and tradeoffs, have been enhanced, and appear periodically in circles of opinion formers. However, we have been, and will probably remain, largely unsuccessful in changing policy for several reasons :
• Our ideological supporters are believed to have hidden agendas - the vested interests of industry and pro-industry politicians.

which, in view of what follows appears to be a pretty accurate description of the situation

• Our opponents are quite disparate, yet we have not divided them and shown each how the other's agenda is damaging their own .

To be more successful we need to do the following :
• Simplify our arguments .
• Pick issues on which we can divide our opponents and win . Make our case on our terms, not on the terms of our opponents - malaria prevention is a good example .
• Show our opponents where their alleged allies are harming their cause - environmental regulations often harm public health in the west and western policies often harm health in Less Developed Countries (LDCs).
• Target messages to show politicians and journalists how to make political capital out of supporting our ideas.
• Involve opinion formers in LDCs to make our case .

Which gives one a pretty good opinion idea of what is to follow

The first stage is to develop some literature which explains the harm that a preoccupation with virtual risks in the west is causing in LDCs (to create support in the LDCs) . At the same time we must continue to explain the dangers this preoccupation has for those in the west (to increase support in the west) . The aim of the papers will be to highlight two tensions : between the actions of environmental and public health policies, and between OECD and LDC aims . It will also question what the aims of international health agencies (primarily WHO) should be .

Well, the Tobacco Institute already had funded one book by Bate

As part of this process I have produced a cut-down version of "What Risk?", with two new papers, for think tanks to publish in their own languages/countries . . .

but the Tobacco lobby always did have money for unworthy causes

Each will provide a speaking platform for me, and work with local media - however, all will require some funding support,

and then the new front group can start to work

A new initiative to bring interest back into combating malaria, Africa Fighting Malaria, will be collection of groups of individuals and institutes, working from a base in Cape Town, South Africa .

The purpose of this all

this will create tensions between LDCs and OECD countries and between public health and environment.

How noble. Bate goes on

The third part of the strategy will be to constructively look at the future role of international agencies such as UNEP, UNDP, WHO etc . For example, WHO's new Director General Gro Harlem Brundtland comes from an environmental background. As the originator of the phrase 'sustainable development', and a guiding light in both the Montreal Protocol, and Rio Summit, she has a superb grasp on manipulating international political structures . According to one insider she is after the top job at UN . Her two targets of malaria and tobacco control if `successful' could propel her towards that goal . . The tobacco control protocol is based upon the Montreal Protocol and as such, although she did not originate the tobacco document, she is comfortable with its approach. Indeed, the tobacco control document may lead to a binding WHO/UN convention .

The final paragraph is a keeper

At UNEP, the desire to push through treaties on Persistent Organic Pollutants, Climate Change, Hazardous Waste, to name but a few draw heavily on the Montreal Protocol as well . However, the Montreal Protocol is highly flawed (like the tobacco control document) . It contains inaccuracies, cost underestimation and dubious ethics . To influence the direction of future UN legislation we must criticise the Montreal Protocol. A paper is proposed to accurately apply the lessons learned from the Montreal Protocol to new or developing conventions (especially POPs, tobacco and climate change).

As we saw in the earlier post, the cost of this piece of work was small, Bate even offered a discount

As you probably know I was working for PMCS Brussels at a rate of 800 pounds sterling a day . I would be content to continue to work at the same rate.

It is truly difficult to understand someone as evil as Roger Bate, it is hard to understand why anyone with self respect would associate with him and surely, Roger Bate's existence is a strong argument against the existence of a just God.

Who Ordered That

The hundred year wingnuts have emerged to devour the centenary of Rachel Carsons death birth (tip of the ears to Steve Bloom. You can read about the various abuses over at Deltoid, Deltoid, Deltoid, but that being an Aussie blog, Eli will point to the local inaction:

The U.S. Senate adjourned for the Memorial Day weekend yesterday without taking up a resolution honoring environmental author Rachel Carson, meaning that the measure will not be passed in time for the 100th anniversary of her birth, congressional staff members said. . .
But plans were stymied when Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) used Senate rules to block the measure. Coburn said Carson's "junk science" improperly stigmatized the pesticide DDT and prevented it from being used on malaria-carrying mosquitoes. As a result, Coburn said, numerous people in the developing world have died of the disease.
Susan Sullam, a spokeswoman for Cardin, said yesterday that she was unsure whether he would continue to press for the resolution's passage.

Those who wish to honor Carson, might write to Senator Cardin. OTOH, they might also write to Sen. Coburn. Of course, this being Washington DC, we have our local infestations, one of which emerged from larval form onto the Washington Post letter page, a Roger Bate of the American Enterprise Institute who said (in part)

David A. Fahrenthold quoted me in his May 23 Metro article "Rachel Carson Bill From Cardin on Hold" but misunderstood my point. While one cannot blame Rachel Carson for things done in her name after her death, she was undoubtedly wrong about DDT and a host of other issues. She was known to be wrong in 1972, 10 years after "Silent Spring" was published, as the back cover of the 1972 Penguin version acknowledged.

Bate being one of the fabricators of the Carson as a killer myth as well as the type of all around scum who tried to make a living by shilling for tobacco. Sourcewatch thinks Philip Morris turned down the book proposal. Well Philip may have had better taste and told Bates to walk the streets for free, but Sadly No, the Tobacco Institute funded the book, "What Risk".

The proposal is worth reading, if only for the budget (£50K of which £5K was to go to distributing the book to thems what counts - sadly, thems what counts ususally can't and their reading skills are none too good) and the proposed list of authors, among which we find such familiar luminaries Zbigniew Jaworowski and Princess Denial, Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen . Ziggie made it into the book, providing a chapter on how radon is good for the health, but as interestingly, the proposal had one Julian Morris as co-editor. George Monbiot recounts how Morris told him he had and wanted nothing to do with the book

Julian Morris insists that his name was added to the document without his consent. He says he had “nothing” to do with the book(9). It was published in 1997 under the title “What Risk?”(10). It has a foreword by David Davis MP. It claims that passive smoking is no more dangerous than “eating 50g of mushrooms a week” and attacks “politically correct” beliefs such as “passive smoking causes lung cancer” and “mankind’s emissions of carbon dioxide will result in runaway global warming.” Julian Morris is not named as its co-editor, but he is the first person thanked in the acknowledgements, for his “editorial suggestions”.

Monbiot goes on to talk about the players

The book’s editor, Roger Bate, is currently a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute – which has received $1.6m from ExxonMobil(11) – and the Competitive Enterprise Institute, which has received $2 million(12). Until 2003, he was Julian Morris’s predecessor as head of the IPN (International Policy Network). When the book was written, he ran the European Science and Environment Forum (ESEF), which published “What Risk?”. The registered owner of ESEF’s website is Julian Morris(13). He claims he had nothing to do with ESEF either, and registered the name purely “as a favour to a friend”(14).

and their teams

PRWatch alleges that ESEF was originally called Scientists for Sound Public Policy (SSPP), and was founded by a public relations agency working for the tobacco company Philip Morris(15). Documents in the tobacco archives show that SSPP was the subject of a fierce turf war between the PR firms Burson Marsteller and APCO, who were vying for Philip Morris’s account. Burson Marsteller’s proposal argued that “industrial resistance” to regulation is “perceived as protection of commercial self-interests”. A different “countervailing voice” was required, consisting of “international opinion formers supported financially by the industry”. Their role would be “educating opinion leaders, politicians and the media.”(16) The group would also seek funding from other industries. Some of the people ESEF recruited as “academic members” were people working for US lobby groups later funded by Exxon, who have made false claims about climate change(17).

but how, young innocent bunnies, you ask, does this have anything to do with Rachel Carson. Ah, you have to remember that in the late 1990s, the World Health Organization was organizing a global response to the plague of deaths due to tobacco. Eli reading in the Tobacco Archives comes across this interesting dot connector from the good Roger Bate to David Greenberg of Philip Morris

It was a pleasure to meet with you last week . Following our discussion I have done as you suggested and thought about topics and areas of interest where I can possibly either do some work for you, or you may interested in supporting our work .

As outlined in more detail in my previous correspondence, the antimalaria project is one that I hope you will be able to support . Other than its humanitarian, scientific and public policy interest it should enable me to build contacts with politicians and scientist/thinkers from developing African countries . As demonstrated in the debate and policy shift on ivory trading, these representatives are particularly important in the UN/WHO process . I would be happy to regularly inform you of the progress on this front .

It will also afford me, and several colleagues, the opportunity of writing opinion articles and books (see Public Health book outline from previous correspondence) about the disparity between the current and correct roles of environmental public health . Usual first world targets, such as FT, WSJ, etc . will be complemented with other less known but important African papers.

If you are able to donate to the Malaria campaign, I will pass on the coordinates for the new operation, initially based in UK, but soon to have offices in South Africa.

In addition to this support, I would like to propose that I work on projects for you on an ad hoc basis . In your work, influencing the WHO on their tobacco protocol, there are probably several areas where I can help . For example, contacts who may be appreciative of your efforts and arguments may develop via the malaria work and I could probably act as a liaison between you and them.

I can also write short reports on subjects salient to your interest in the protocol. The first that could be attempted is a brief history of the Montreal Protocol and its relevance to the proposed tobacco protocol . I'm sure other topics will spring to mind that I can work on but let me know if, in principle, you are interested in this approach and in particular the Montreal Protocol paper to start with . Its probably three to five days work.

As you probably know I was working for PMCS Brussels at a rate of 800 pounds sterling a day . I would be content to continue to work at the same rate.

Nice of him

Ask Al Gore

Well the book tour for Assault on Reason is underway, so there will be local opportunities to Ask Al Gore. Our question to the mice is, what question would you Ask Al Gore, in 25 words or less. Questions by nature are short and not political speechifying, the person who answers the question gets to do that. However, for the purpose of this exercise, after asking the question (politely, we are well behaved furry creatures, unlike them pushy Stoats), you may rant at will.

Oh yes, you can put your question out to the Huffington Post who will Ask Al Gore tomorrow and more opportunities at the draft Gore site, even at the gore Gore sites. There will be an interview on Charlie Rose tonight which should eventually be available on line.

It is a 12 stop tour which started in CA. Some of the upcoming dates are

Friday, May 25
New York City
Barnes & Noble (Union Square)
33 E. 17th Street
Talk & book-signing
12:30 pm

Tuesday, May 29
Washington, DC
The George Washington University Lisner Auditorium
730 21st Street, NW
7:00 pm

Wednesday, June 6
Chicago, IL
Borders Book Store
150 North State St.
Phone 312.606.0750
12:30 PM

Why stock markets are evil

Ethon came back on the overnight from Basingstoke UK where he is working with the Editors to improve Climate Feedback. On his way out the door he noticed that Kevin Vranes was busily at work reviving the argument that all markets are useless because they can be manipulated. This was news to our new liverterian friends, but of course he is only talking about carbon markets, which are, of course, evil because they represent an attempt to reign in the unbridled vigor of free markets.

As Eli understands this argument it goes markets can be manipulated therefore markets are evil and we don't need markets. What it should be is that markets can be manipulated therefore we need regulated markets and regulators who can and will impose drastic penalties on the manipulators.

Michael Milken-bond manipulator

It should be expected that initially there will be attempts at manipulation of carbon markets until the regulators choke them off. That is the nature of the beast.

Kevin Vranes' argument is but another example of the but we can't do anything about it strand of denialism. You can take the lad out of Prometheus, but you can't take Prometheus out of the lad.

Yah gotta pay attention

Deltoid and Climate Audit tell how the Killer McIntyre uleashed his Lego** Robot Anonymouse on GISS to harvest all of their climate station records. Turns out that the rapid polling of the robot resulted in denial of service to everyone else, and the webmaster told McIntyre to bug out,

Please note that the robots.txt file on that website includes a list of directories which any legitimate web robot is _forbidden_ from trying to index. That list of off-limits directories includes the /work/ and /cgi-bin/ directories.
Because the robot running on the cable.rogers.com network has rather obviously and blatantly violated those rules, I placed a block on our server restricting its access to the server.

which was not kindly received. Lots of harumph on Steve's part, but they did provide him with access within a few hours, and this interesting comment

After a short meeting with Dr. Hansen, we were advised to let you download whatever you want as long as generally accepted protocols are observed. Please try to do so at a time that does not impact other users, i.e. late nights, weekends.
What we did with the GHCN data is carefully documented in the publications listed on our website. We are not creating an alternate version of the GHCN data, we are mainly combining their data in various steps to create our anomaly maps.

While the whole thing was a farce, those seven words are the take home. It's obvious what Steveo intends to try, Hansen, otoh is a lot older fox than Michael Mann.

** Lego has a huge market among robotics courses. Eli just took delivery on 8k$ worth of stuff for next year