Senate Hearing Live Blog

So the Cruz follies are on the air, feel free to add your comments

Christy, Curry, Happer and Steyn, with Dave Titley for the forces of rationality.

Christy and Happer are pushing for Team B.  Conservative pushed Team B exercises has a long history of being wrong.  Happer sounds shaken.
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UPDATE:  He damn well was shaken

See here for why
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Curry is moaning that people don't like her

Steyn, well, Steyn is saying that Mike Mann is not a Nobel Prize winner.  Tell Richard Tol.  At this point he is on to the persecution of Exxon and that the science is not settled.  Awfully loud, may be mike hugging

Titley is up now.  As a former naval officer he starts with sea level rise, points out that risk management shows there is a serious problem putting theory and observation together.  What do we know, that the earth's climate is changing, that it associated with greenhouse gases, that we can mitigate the problem.  "If you wait for 100% certainty on the battlefield, you will probably be dead"

What to do.  We are already paying the costs, New Orleans, Sandy, Alaska.  Not some mid-tropospheric change in the  atmosphere.

Decarbonization will happen, the only question is how fast.  US must lead.
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Cruz is talking to Happer, basically pushing that CO2 is good.  Happer backs off pointing out that higher CO2 was 5 million years ago.

Cruz says that this proves that high CO2 not related to industrialization.

Pulls up Christy's chart (its using RSS but it is the same).  It looks like TMT, not TLT (but has red line)  Of course UAH 6.0 was adjusted to match RSS.\

Cruz talks to Titley about the pause.  Titley points out that unlike Christy he is not talking about the last 40 years.

Titley says what pause?  Points out that satellite data has had major errors in it.  

Cruz says that gee, no rise for seven years, etc.  Titley takes his head off, pointing out that the argument requires end point picking  (Ei's prediction Reps are going to stay away from Titley)

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Peters points out that 97% of scientists hold the IPCC consensus position, as do major companies.

Goes to Titley about planning for the military and how there are always caveats but what sort of certainty will be needed.  Titley says 97% is like great.  Points out that intelligence evaluations deals with people who are trying to deceive us, but with climate we are dealing with physics.  

Peters shifts to certainty that mission commanders have with weather forecasts.  Titley points out that weather uncertainty can be framed in terms of risk.  The other part of risk is impact management.

Peters asks about difference btw weather and climate.  Titley says you live in weather, you plan in climate.  

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Danes Montanta (R) starts on coal jobs.  Tries to middle btw coal and jobs and environment.  Goes after EPA clean power plan. Interesting that he does not go full Cruz.  Talks to Christy about impact on ghg.

Christy dons bleeding heart.  Says war on coal is a war on Africa and Clean Power Plan will have no effect on GHGs.  Mentions China under-reporting but not that China emissions have decreased.

Asks Curry about how the Clean Power Plan will stifle innovation.  Curry looks under desk for an answer, finding none says we need more research.  Finally comes up with you have to give people funding to fail to find good ones.  This should go well with those who went after Obama for funding Solyndra.

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Schatz (D) says, hey, maybe everybody else is wrong, but otoh, bet with the 97%.  Points out that deniers are not funded much because everyone else thinks they are fantasizing.  Gives a shout out to John Cook and SKS.  Points out that there may be a quack out there who thinks that smoking does not cause cancel (down Russell), but please keep that one away from him.

Asks Titley to describe the GHG mechanism.  Titley points out that that is cutting edge 19th century science.  A bunch of old white dudes figured that out.  Fast description of GH effect, and that while it is necessary, too much of a good thing is bad.  

Schatz points to Titley's testimony on relationship btw ghg, temperature, ocean etc.  

Steyn butts in.  Says the 97% does not argue for action, uses term pro climate people.  Who is against climate Eli asks.  Says you need 100% agreement.  Gliver, etc.  Let's build the Dutch barrier around New York.

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Cruz plays Galileo card.  

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Next up is Udall (D).  Cruz can't get his R colleagues to come to the meeting.  Udall points out that this meeting is an attack on scientists.

Asks Titley if there is any time.  Titley says that there is nothing as useless as the runway behind you. Points out that even Curry said that more research on energy is needed.

Asks Titley was he always convinced.  Titley says that not always, because he comes from a weather model background.  Uses initial value vs. boundary value point.  When asked by CNO to look at this, like a reformed smoker, he saw all these independent lines of evidence.  

Asks Titley if science has progressed.  Titley says progress in science is not linear.  Overall level of confidence in basic GHG theory has increased

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Another Democrat (Markey)  If there was an R in the room it would have been his or her turn.  Every Republican hates Cruz and won't show up. 

Asks Titley about weather 2014 was record year.  

Answer is yes.  Senator turns to COP 21.  Calls committee last redoubt of denial.  Points out that the panel has 4 deniers and 1 scientist.  Tells Titley that, unlike Galileo he will get his apology faster than Galileo.  

Senator invokes Kennedy's race to the moon as a challenge.  Says that as this was to meet the threat from communism, we now face a threat to our national security from climate change and need to meet is.  

Happer Christy and Curry are sitting there like wooden indians.

Senator says that Climate Science sits on a foundation of 150 years of basic research. Republicans insist that this existential challenge is an illusion.  It is time to stop this denial.  Strong statement.

Martin lists the many signs of global warming and says that the Earth is in the emergency

Curry demands to not be called a denier.   Steyn bigfoots. Curry talks about Antartica, rise in temperature.  Markey points out that 2015 is warmest ever, that this warming may have variability but the trend is straight up.  Steyn tries to bigfoot, finds that Markey knows more than him.  

Steyn tries to say that it was cold in Plymouth Rock

Food fight breaks out on percentage of human responsibility

Titley playing the voice of reason (somebunny had to) points to IPCC report saying humans are responsible for vast majority of warming.

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Bill Nelson (another Dem) asks about surface temp chart and relation to SST.  Titley says that 90% of the excess heat goes into the ocean.  Nelson asks what happens to warm water.  Answer it expands.  Nelson point out that this will increase sea level

Nelson starts talking about GoreSAT measurements of heat in and heat out as a future indicator.  Titley points out that this would be basic physics

Titley describes problems climate change is making for military.

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Cruz starts with second round.  Asks Curry about the statistical prob that 2014 was not the warmest year.  Trying to make out that 2014 was not the warmest year.  See earlier this year discussion.

Cruz gets into discussion about homogenization

Curry does not quite go there, retreating to natural variability.  Happer is playing potted plant.  Curry tries to say ocean temperatures are not well characterized, satellite data is the gold standard.  Throws a wrench into Cruz by pointing out that going from emissions to temperature  is not trivial.

Cruz invites Steyn to beat on the hockey stick and homogenization.  Steyn picks up cudgel.  For some reason Steyn is shouting.  Beats on Gavin Schmidt for not standing next to thermometers.  Gavin, of course is a juggler.  

Tries to go after Titley for not talking about ISIS.  Points out that there are a lot more Africans and that is the security threat.  Does a Trump imitation.

Happer goes to cross calibration with sondes.

Cruz is not happy with https://www.barackobama.com/climate-change-deniers/#/

Curry agrees.  

Curry says she has no federal funding.  Interesting. 

Cruz asks about AAAS letter.  Curry says that Marsha McNutt has stated that the debate is over.  This must not be allowed, we must have debate about whether the earth is flat.

Steyn says that statisticians think climate science is not very good.  Lies about majority of engineers, physicists, etc not holding to IPCC consensus.

Cruz trying to corner Titley about which is greater climate change or ISIS.  Titley says both.

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Nelson points out that seal level rise in Bangladesh will cause a huge displacement and that is not a good thing.  Nelson prepares dagger.  How he respects Cruz, etc.  Points out that the Rs. have tried to stake Mike Mann in the Serengheti, that the words climate change were outlawed, etc.  When talk about muzzling of scientists on climate change, scientists actually had two  Rs vote not to.

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Peters points out that the three scientists on the R side are way out of the consensus, Steyn is a political commentator.  OK, says Peters, thats the 3, where are the 97.  

Cruz has to sit there because there are no Rs to pass the gavel to.  He must have to use the men's room.  

Peters enters the report of the US Climate Change Program into evidence.

Peters asks Titley to deal with the problems of the satellite measurements.  Titley says it's not rocket science, it's harder.  No thermometers in space.  Mispronounces microwave.  Points out there are different frequencies which are mostly sensitive to different altitudes, but not entirely.  Talks about number of satillites, etc.  It is hard

Peters asks how climate models compare.  Titley goes with George Box that all models are wrong, some useful.  Says that GCMs are useful.  Refers to the 1980 Hansen and Lacis paper which pointed to warming, but less than observed.  Climate models are useful and they help us understand the future.

Peters asks about skepticism and peer review.  Titley says that skepticism drives science, and how it sometimes changes orthrodoxy.  Peer review is not a guarantee says that field is well summarized and manuscript is not off the wall.  

Christy is chopped liver.  Will he say something.

Peters asks Titley about natural variability.  Titley says human impact mostly about GHG but also land use and ag.  That fossil fuel burning is putting billions of tons into atm.  Seeing rainfall.  Atm cn hold more water.  Temperature is melting ice.  We have built human civilization on climate stability.

Titley says we can put our seat belts on and have a bumpy ride, or we can ignore the warning and have a very bad ride indeed.

Peters asks about higher CO2 in the distant past.  Titley points out that then there were few (no) people.  Plants do better, but so do weeds.   There are ag thresholds, what about water cycle, there are huge issues of ag in a changing climate.

Peters enters studies by Long and Meyers about CO2 levels.  

Peters enters Whitehouse speech to refute statements of Steyn

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Cruz gets ready to wrap up

Happer says, hey you use IR to measure temperature in the hospital.  

Cruz tries to wrap up with a Gish Gallop.

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Send some whiskey to Dave Titley and some donations to the Democratic Senators.