Sunday, June 19, 2016

Someone else notices gas stations are disappearing

This time it's Daniel Gross at Slate, noting a 25% decline in stations over a decade. He acknowledges the importance of extraneous forces like pricier real estate and fleet vehicles switching to natural gas, as well as future impacts from driverless vehicles. Gross also highlights electrical vehicles and plug-ins as a force, though. He doesn't quite get to the virtuous cycle argument - that as market share for electric increases, the market for gas stations suffers, gas stations disappear, gas vehicles become less convenient, and market share for electric increases even more. But he's heading in that direction.

Among the other tidbits Gross finds is Norway contemplating a ban on gas engine vehicle sales starting in 2025 (with Netherlands and even India saying something similar, but I find Norway more believable).  EVs are 20% of current sales in Norway - when penetration reaches those levels, then these proposals don't seem outlandish. It's one way to accelerate the virtuous cycle of EVs replace ICEs.
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6 comments:

  1. David B. Benson20/6/16 12:19 AM

    The Netherlands surely will.

    ReplyDelete
  2. cRR Kampen20/6/16 9:47 AM

    Hm, definitely not placing a bet on that, DBB...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Fernando Leanme20/6/16 11:55 AM

    The number of gas stations isn't nearly as important as the volumes they sell, vehicle fuel efficiency, and similar factors. According to the latest trends, technology, and prices, the world seems to be marching along an RCP4.5 pathway, without much fancy policy or pledges. I think the key will be to deploy nuclear power to reduce coal emissions.

    ReplyDelete
  4. cRR Kampen21/6/16 5:25 AM

    'I think the key will be to deploy nuclear power to reduce coal emissions.'

    As long as it is as expensive and polluting as is possible. Never ever think of sun and wind.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Gingerbaker21/6/16 12:52 PM

    " I think the key will be to deploy nuclear power to reduce coal emissions."

    You might as well put a "Kick Me" sign on your backside.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hank Roberts21/6/16 2:54 PM

    A lot of gas stations built decades ago had soil contamination problems and often weren't worth fixing once they were shut down to remove the old leaking tanks, but the locations were attractive for other development.

    Decent summary here: http://www.phillipslytle.com/include/uploads/ARTICLE-2009-12-01-Murphy_Crystal.pdf

    ReplyDelete

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