After the Pause
comes the surge
Was updating a figure of observed global temperature changes since 1850.
2015 (so far) has broken the graph. pic.twitter.com/EdTOTAYk9T
— Ed Hawkins (@ed_hawkins) October 22, 2015
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
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12 comments:
It was a popular comment that day :)
Greg Laden: Honey, Honey, We Broke The Global Warming Graph. Again.
Tamino: Honey, I broke the graph
It's the surge!
Pass it on.
The hiatus ends in a hockey stick?
Let's not get carried away ...
as per 1997/1998, we've got a serious El Nino.
Temperatures will not increase monotonically ...
and for years, we will hear
"global warming is over, temperatures haven't increased since 2015 (or 2016, depending on how it does).
See the SkS Escalator
Just waiting for the next SURGE.
To an extent this is public relations. Articles in research journals deconstructing the idea of a pause in the increase in global temperature don't do much. The surge is like the 97%. Use it.
Remember, last time an El Nino happened, the denial camp warned us that this massive increase in warming was due to the El Nino. They will go with that again for three or four years, and THEN start proclaiming "No warming since 2015!". Or pick some other year before then that still is overwhelmed in sort period average by the spike that came soon after.
Not sure, what you all are talking about. All I can see is the first year of a new hiatus.
While we're appropriating Bushisms, let's explain The Pause as a 'misunderestimation' of the satellite data. It'll play in Peoria.
Something I'd wish for, with zero expectation of it happening, is that every high school student get some exposure to probability and statistics, including at least a little on stochastic processes.
The latter would help defend against misbeliefs in many areas, including investing and health.
"Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?"
The temperature record is simply laying the groundwork for the next hiatus. So there!
The replies to Ed's tweet from AGW-denying twits reminds me why I'm not on Twitter.
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