Eli has always been partial to the Uni Bremen sea ice maps, but in the last few days something truly scary has appeared.
Now Eli is not your average Neven, or sea ice expert, but that thing in the circle looks a lot like a huge chunk ready to float away, break up and melt, which after the compaction of this month's cyclone is a huge change and not in a good direction. BTW, it also looks as if the main channel in the Northwest Passage is finally opening.
It's going to be an interesting fall with all that ice gone it may take longer to refreeze the Arctic basin, leaving even thinner ice for next year's warm spell, which is what happened in 2011 and to a stronger extent in 2007.
Well, of more concern is whether there are inroads into the remaining seemingly solid mass.
ReplyDeleteHere I thought you were going to point out the arctic sea ice was holding up a middle finger.
ReplyDeleteHey Eli, I went to the Uni of Bremen page where that map resides and found this plot of Antarctic sea ice. It appears that this year's max will be substantially below the 1973-2012 average. That's going to give Watts conniptions!
ReplyDeletePico
Is it time to start a betting pool on which year the Arctic will be substantially sea ice free on June 21 of that year?
ReplyDeleteI bet the Arctic seas will be substantially sea ice free on June 21, 2017. However, there will be icebergs from various glaciers floating around.
Never had to worry about the satellite hole over the pole before. I don't understand the polar orbits of satellites; I'd figured it was a ruse to keep Santa Claus's ice palace a secret. I guess now Mr. Anthony will tell us that the artic ice isn't really gone, it's just all hiding in the hole at the pole. So my burning question is this. What's Santa going to do with all that ice piled in his front yard? Scaredy Mouse
ReplyDeleteI'm a CAGW believer and doubt that the Arctic will ever be substantially free of ice by June 21.
ReplyDeleteBy "ever" I mean "within the time span that computer records last". The Arctic is cold.
Having just had the pleasure of finding a computer with 5 1/4" and 3.5" drives, Eli puts that at about 15-20 years.
ReplyDeleteSnow Bunny says:
ReplyDeleteThe picture must be wrong. The great atmospheric scientist S. Fred Singer, nee Siegfred Frederick Singer, predicated in his book "Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years" the the Arctic ice cover would not continue to melt. The book was published some years ago so I am assured no further melting has occurred. Since I wouldn't buy the book, I can't swear to the page number, maybe 70.
Dr. Lumpus Spookytooth, phd.
ReplyDeleteplease post the temperature change from August 1 to August 29th if you are asserting this is from global warming, and not the large storm from August 4th to August 8th.
Oh wait, you can't do that because there was almost no change in temperature and that would demolish the narrative.
"As of August 13, ice extent was already among the four lowest summer minimum extents in the satellite record, with about five weeks still remaining in the melt season. Sea ice extent dropped rapidly between August 4 and August 8. While this drop coincided with an intense storm over the central Arctic Ocean, it is unclear if the storm prompted the rapid ice loss."
and
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/08/Figure4.png
gee Eli, there sure was a lot more purple in that area you circled before the storm. ho ho ho!
And to what cause, exactly, does Stubbytooth attribute the unprecidented arctic storm of August 4th to August 8th?
ReplyDeleteThe atmosphere and ocean are warming, Stubby, which is changing the weather all over the globe, including in the Arctic. You don't get one without the other.
Fool.
For Jay/Spookytooth/:
ReplyDelete"What is important to remember, is the large discrepancies between this melting season and that of 2007. The latter had almost perfect weather conditions during almost the entire melting season, with lots of sunshine and compacting winds. 2012 had a reasonably good June, but after that the weather switched and hasn't switched back since. Those ideal weather conditions in 2007 pulled in large amounts of warm water through Bering Strait decimating the ice pack on the Pacific side of the Arctic. If 2012 is pulling anything through Bering Strait, it's cold water. The ideal weather conditions in 2007 pushed out very large amounts of multi-year ice through Fram and Nares Strait. 2012 doesn't come close to it. But still, even before the storm, 2012 was following the 2007 trend line as if the Arctic wasn't cloudy and winds weren't blowing the wrong way.
The fact that 2012 followed 2007 so closely, was the strongest evidence possible that a large part of the ice pack is so thin that it will melt out no matter what the weather conditions. The storm only emphasized this, giving all that thin ice a push into the abyss.
Keep that in mind when you see fake skeptics use this storm to mislead their audience into thinking that the storm, a freakish fluke, is the cause of however this melting season is going to end..."
The Aug. 30 view already looks reduced by comparison, including in the central mass.
ReplyDeleteThe simple truth is the Arctic sea-ice cannot exist as multi-year ice in present climate conditions.
ReplyDeleteSo what little older ice is left will be gone bij 2014 or so. After that the sea ice will be seasonal only.
correction: Aug 29
ReplyDeleteSomebody need to save this immediately! Arctic Ice Downfall parody
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARJK0MWAITM
Rib Smokin' bunny
SOme idiot said:
ReplyDelete"please post the temperature change from August 1 to August 29th if you are asserting this is from global warming, and not the large storm from August 4th to August 8th."
Hey, said idiot, essentially the same thing's happening here as happens when one considers the trend hemispheric insolation just after a solstice, and the accompanying trend in hemispheric temperature.
Bernard J. Hyphen-Anonymous XVII, Esq.
Can't tell much from the satellite imagery, is anyone else looking for Eli's ice island drifting away?
ReplyDeletehttp://arctic.ssec.wisc.edu/data/view-data.php?action=view_image&product=images/ARCTICVIS-L.GIF
ah, better: http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/680891main_seaIceArea_08262012-orig_full.jpg
ReplyDeleteDr. Lumpus Spookytooth, phd.
ReplyDelete@craig allen
boy did you step on a carrot there my friend! So you're saying that different data sets have different values? Sorta like how not all the data sets are showing a record minimum at the north pole? OOOh, I bet only deniers are pointing that out!
After all, according to the U. of Illinois, there has been a positive gain in the instrumental record from 1979-present.
Dr. Lumpus Spookytooth, phd.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I have no problem with Neven but I cannot comment at his website, I absolutely refuse to use twitter or facebook or any of those stupid social media platforms. Lumpus is his own social media device.
so if Mr. Neven happens to stumble over for a carrot or 2, a few questions.
Firstly, can you please follow Mr. Eli and make it so we can comment without signing up for some stupid thing?
Secondly, do you consider your own reporting and the reporting of Rabett Run to be biased on the global warming issue, considering the fact that neither of you reported the arctic storm from August 4th to August 8th? And furthemore, for not reporting the record growth in Antarctica?
Dr. Lumpus Spookytooth, phd.
ReplyDelete@JBowers
okay I was wrong, Neven did report the storm. +1
however, do you agree with me that what Craig Allen did is the exact same thing Watts did but in reverse, with respect to pointing out different data sets?
mene mene lumpy . . .
ReplyDeleteEli
"however, do you agree with me that what Craig Allen did is the exact same thing Watts did but in reverse"
ReplyDeleteI have no idea what Craig Allen did, but if it was 'Watts in reverse' I can only assume that he whatever he did was right and he didn't mention Michael Mann once, even if if the subject was malaria.
I hear another cyclone's hit the central Arctic ocean, with roughly a metre of sea ice thickness. I picked that up at Neven's, Jay, just so you know.
ReplyDeleteI'm a CAGW believer and doubt that the Arctic will ever be substantially free of ice by June 21. By "ever" I mean "within the time span that computer records last". The Arctic is cold.
ReplyDelete