Monday, July 11, 2011
11 comments:
Dear Anonymous,
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The management.
Recipe for toast: Us.
ReplyDeleteAlso interesting is the Antarctic Bremen ice extent:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.grinzo.com/energy/graphs.html
KenH
Welcome to Terra, where every year's Arctic sea ice is below average.
ReplyDeleteThere's four comments now. Any guesses when Nares strait will fully freeze up again? 8000 AD? At what odds? 2300 AD? Should there be caveats for this, like if there's a 20 mile iceberg from Greenland blocking the strait the bet would be called off for 5 years? But I guess this kind of bet is still a bit too early to make.
ReplyDeleteKenH 11/7/11 7:23 PM
ReplyDeleteGrinzo has the AGGI index chart, but is missing [I think] the ODGI (Ozone Depleting Gas Index)... partly affected by same gases as shown on the AGGI. See http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/odgi/
Sekerob
Think I need to go dig for that data set underlying the Bremer Uni Arctic chart... interested in getting that 1972-1978 piece,
ReplyDeleteSekerob
Not quite so detailed, but updated daily:
ReplyDeletehttp://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
The interesting thing -- and by that I mean "dismal" -- is to note that current melt consistently tracks more than 2 standard deviations below the mean. Just by eyeballing the chart, in fact, the lines have recently been twice the 2 std. deviation bar. (Is that 4?)
The recently available James Hansen paper strongly argues that even short term climate sensitivity has been underestimated.
Jeffrey Davis
Jeffrey Davis -- "(Is that 4?)"
ReplyDeleteYep.
There is no way this can happen after a strong La Nina. No way. And with the sun napping? Get real, this is impossible.
ReplyDeleteThat graph has to be a hoax, and now I know why they call it graph and corruption!
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~bitz/publications.html
ReplyDeleteMost recent paper in that page is a pre-publication print offering some hope for the next millenium recovery
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~bitz/Armour_etal2011.pdf
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. ???, XXXX, DOI:10.1029/,
The reversibility of sea ice loss in a state-of-the-art 2 climate model
Armour, Eisenman, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, McCusker, and Bitz
"The lack of evidence for critical sea ice thresholds within a state-of-the-art GCM implies that future sea ice loss will occur only insofar as global warming continues, and may be fully reversible. This is ultimately an encouraging conclusion; although some future warming is inevitable [e.g., Armour and Roe, 2011], in the event that greenhouse gas emissions are reduced sufficiently for the climate to cool back to modern hemispheric-mean temperatures, a sea ice cover similar to modern-day may be expected to follow."
Extent decrease might start slowing down in a couple of days, but it's too early to tell.
ReplyDelete