Ottmar Edenhofer says it again

UPDATE: Some minor changes to the translation have been made -ER

As promised here is a translation of Ottmar Edenhofer's interview with the Sueddeutscher Zeitung from November 20. As far as Eli can find, it exists only in German and only in print and as an Adobe Acrobat image at Prof. Edenhofer's web site.

This is, as it were, the opening position for one of the Co-Chairs of the IPCC's WG III , and therefore worthy of notice.

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Sueddeutche Zeitung:Professor Edenhofer, you believe that Climate Summits such as will occur in Cancun at the end of November will less and less be less environmental conferences and increasingly be economic conferences. Why?

Ottmar Edenhofer: We have to free ourselves from the illusion that climate issues are purely environmental policy ones. For many countries it is all about concrete economic interests by now. They are only indirectly concerned with problems like desertification or the melting of glaciers, because climate policy extends today into many political areas. One thing has become increasingly clear: In the near future climate policy could redistribute the world's wealth.

SZ: How so?

OE: In the course of the 21st century it is not the fossil fuels that will become rare, it is the ability of the atmosphere to absorb additional greenhouse gases. We have more fossil fuel energy reserves in the ground than we can store in the atmosphere if we want to avoid dangerous climate change. That will not change because oil will run out. It will only lead to oil sands being used more and the liquidification of coal will become economical. A higher oil price therefore will lead to increased emissions. Further more coal will be used. And coal is relatively cheap and plentiful. You can turn and twist it as you wish: Climate policy has to make sure that the majority of the fossil reserves remain in the ground and are not used. Exactly that will diminish the income and wealth of the owners of oil and gas.

SZ: How much can the atmosphere take?

OE: Take coal for example. Worldwide there are about 12, 000 gigatons of carbon in the ground. If we want to meet the goal of not warming by more than two degrees Celcius we can only put about 230 gigatons into the atmosphere by the end of the century. That means that most of the coal reserves cannot be used. The science has been clear on this for a very long time. In politics, until now, no one is has been willing to say this in public.

SZ: Countries rich in natural resources will hardly want to cooperate with this.

OE: Until now the industrial countries have used the atmosphere cost free and ignored the negative implications. Those who have coal, oil and gas reserves will not be happy with an ambitious climate policy because they have profited from the cost free use of the atmosphere. However, every structural change since the industrial revolution has lead to a redistribution of wealth.

SZ: You are making no friends in the oil industry with your statements

OE: Since I put this obvious economic truth to paper in a book I have been constantly receiving mail from oil companies. But there won't only be losers. New shortages lead to innovation and innovators are the winners in the market economy. The stone age did not end because there was a shortage of stones, and similarly the era of fossil fuels will not end because of a shortage of reserves. It will be displaced by new technologies such as renewable energy sources.

SZ: Effective climate protection requires an international agreement. How should that succeed.

OE: Climate politics offers a chance for an ethical balancing of burdens. One much discussed possibility is to distribute emission rights on a per capita basis, so that at the end every person has the same right to use the atmosphere as any other. Africa, as well as India, would profit the most. It then comes down to insuring that the money is used to insures the development of these countries and not be given to corrupt elites.

SZ: Those who control the resources will insist that the world buy their coal, gas and oil in order not to use them.

OE: Could be, but that would be as if you paid a smoker to quit. That cannot be accomplished internationally. Climate policy has to be not only efficient but also just, otherwise it will fail.

SZ: How long will the transformation into a CO2 free economy take?

OE: Pretty long. The transformation will require almost the entire 21st century. We will be dependent for a long time on coal oil and gas. We should reach the high point of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Afterward the volume of emissions must decrease. Only near the end of the century will we have a CO2 free economy. We stand before a new, long structural change.

SZ: The Copenhagen Summit failed because of the conflict between the industrial, the rapidly developing and the third world countries. The industrial countries carry a historical guilt because they are responsible for the majority of emissions to date. Don't they have to pay for this in the future?

OE: The developing countries see it that way. But James Watt at the end of the 18th century had no idea that his discovery of the steam engine was the initiation of the greenhouse problem. Only since 1995 has it been clear of what we are risking with our economic model. You cannot hold the industrial countries responsible for what happened before then. What is clear though is that we are responsible for helping the developing countries reconstruct their economies.

SZ: Will the community of nations achieve the breakthrough in Cancun?

OE: Probably not. The positions have hardened. It is time to think about developing new models besides major climate conferences. Bilateral agreements between the EU and the rapidly developing countries for example, or even agreements below the national level. Why not, for example, the 30 largest megacities get together in a climate agreement. These should not serve as an excuse though, a global treaty is indispensable and is needed more every year.